Friday, March 25, 2005

Market Week in Review

S&P 500 1,172.42 -1.58%

Click here for the Weekly Wrap by Briefing.com.

BOTTOM LINE: Overall, last week's market performance was negative. Good news was ignored and any bad news punished US shares quickly. Rising interest rates and worries over the problems at General Motors, AIG, Citigroup and Fannie Mae continued to weigh heavily on investor psyche. Lower commodity prices, merger activity and a strengthening US dollar had little positive impact on trading. The Nasdaq is now trading right below the psychologically important 2000 level at its 200-day moving-average. Value stocks, specifically Cyclicals, bore the brunt of the selling, while defensive Consumer shares outperformed through week’s end. The advance/decline line fell on the week, volume was light and most sectors declined. Finally, measures of investor anxiety were mixed, which is a negative considering recent losses. However, the sharp decline in the AAII % Bulls is a big positive and bodes well for a meaningful bottom in the near future.

Weekly Scoreboard*

Indices
S&P 500 1,172.42 -1.58%
DJIA 10,442.87 -1.73%
NASDAQ 1,991.06 -1.26%
Russell 2000 615.27 -1.63%
DJ Wilshire 5000 11,558.65 -1.53%
S&P Equity Long/Short Index 1,027.75 -.63%
S&P Barra Growth 565.90 -1.02%
S&P Barra Value 601.15 -2.13%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 573.92 -.44%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 749.81 -2.42%
Morgan Stanley Technology 453.40 -1.88%
Transports 3,744.67 -.87%
Utilities 353.97 -1.64%
Put/Call .64 -42.34%
NYSE Arms 1.10 +17.02%
Volatility(VIX) 13.42 +.98%
ISE Sentiment 173.00 +24.46%
AAII % Bulls 23.23 -28.46%
US Dollar 84.16 +2.90%
CRB 306.88 -4.44%

Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 54.84 -3.70%
Unleaded Gasoline 159.92 +2.64%
Natural Gas 7.06 -2.19%
Heating Oil 154.84 -2.43%
Gold 425.00 -3.17%
Base Metals 127.52 -1.91%
Copper 145.60 -3.19%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.59% +1.86%
Average 30-year Mortgage Rate 6.01% +1.01%

Leading Sectors
Airlines +2.44%
Computer Services +2.43%
Hospitals +1.53%

Lagging Sectors
Commodity -3.79%
I-Banks -3.98%
Insurance -4.52%

*5-day % Change

Thursday, March 24, 2005

Mid-day Scoreboard

Indices
S&P 500 1,177.83 +.45%
DJIA 10,499.84 +.42%
NASDAQ 2,004.50 +.71%
Russell 2000 618.49 +1.05%
DJ Wilshire 5000 11,617.73 +.52%
S&P Barra Growth 568.86 +.39%
S&P Barra Value 604.37 +.48%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 575.70 +.15%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 753.40 +.36%
Morgan Stanley Technology 456.60 +.92%
Transports 3,756.23 +.64%
Utilities 354.53 +1.65%
Put/Call .62 -25.30%
NYSE Arms .76 +41.46%
Volatility(VIX) 13.15 -6.47%
ISE Sentiment 166.00 +39.50%
US Dollar 84.15 +.25%
CRB 306.84 +.11%

Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 54.40 +1.10%
Unleaded Gasoline 158.50 +.64%
Natural Gas 7.08 -.74%
Heating Oil 154.00 +.42%
Gold 425.20 -.05%
Base Metals 127.52 -1.0%
Copper 145.40 +.66%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.59% +.19%

Leading Sectors
Utilities +1.63%
Restaurants +1.56%
Computer Hardware +1.35%

Lagging Sectors
Foods +.07%
Insurance -.10%
Airlines -1.08%

Links of Interest
Market Internals
Movers & Shakers
I-Watch Sector Overview
NYSE Unusual Volume
NASDAQ Unusual Volume
NASDAQ 100 Heatmap
DJIA Quick Charts
Chart Toppers
Hot Spots
Option Dragon
Real-time Intraday Chart/Quote

BOTTOM LINE: US stocks are modestly higher mid-day on an oversold bounce and GE’s earnings’ boost. The Portfolio is slightly lower as losses in my Homebuilding shorts and Gaming longs are more than offsetting gains in my Software longs. I exited a few longs and shorts from various sectors this morning, thus leaving the Portfolio’s market exposure Market Neutral. The tone of the market is modestly positive as the advance/decline line is higher, almost every sector is higher and volume is light. Small-caps are underperforming and measures of investor anxiety are mixed. Today’s overall market action is neutral considering recent losses, GE’s positive comments, the rise in energy prices and stabilization of interest rates. On the positive side, the AAII % Bulls plunged this week to 23.23%, the lowest level since Feb. 2003. I continue to see one more push lower over the next couple of weeks, creating a better, more durable bottom. I expect US stocks to trade modestly lower into the close on rising oil prices and traders flattening positions ahead of the 3-day weekend.

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:
- General Electric raised its first-quarter earnings forecast to 37 cents to 38 cents a share, from 36 cents to 37 cents.
- Billionaire investor George Soros was found guilty of insider trading by a French appeals court, confirming a 2002 conviction.
- Russian President Putin, seeking to restore investor confidence after tax demands brought down OAO Yukos Oil, said he will end the government’s ability to reverse the state asset sales of the 1990s.
- Tokyo’s first rise in commercial property prices since 1991 is likely to add to Japan’s attractiveness for overseas real estate investors.
- US new-home sales rose 9.4% in February, the biggest increase in more than four years, as job and income growth spurred buying.
- General Motors’ debt rating may be lowered to high-risk or junk status in the next six months, prompting the sale of the residential mortgage and insurance units of GM’s finance subsidiary, Merrill Lynch said.
- The US dollar is rising for a sixth straight day against the yen, the longest streak in more than a year.

The Wall Street Journal:
- Moves by US companies such as GM, Ford and Caterpillar to reduce previously reported numbers for operating cash flow following guidelines from the SEC shows that “cash flow” is not as firm a concept as investors may have thought.
- President Bush is building alliances with some Democrats and other unlikely groups to gain support for saving Social Security.
- JP Morgan miscalculated its ability to fight a class-action suit by investors in WorldCom and paid $630 million more than the bank would have done otherwise.
- In the US, sales of beer will continue to lose ground to wine and distilled spirits, citing Morgan Stanley.
- The US Supreme Court is about to review a request by 28 entertainment companies to overturn lower court rulings that peer-to-peer networks aren’t legally responsible when used to illegally download entertainment.

The New York Times:
- The average price of a one-way coach class airplane ticket rose 10% since January as many airlines raised prices this week.
- Lockheed Martin’s C-130J planes, used by the US Air Force to deploy paratroopers and cargo, may be struck from the 2006 budget by Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld.
- PBS has canceled the 35-year-old financial program “Wall Street Week,” three years after viewers were upset by the departure of the show’s host.

AP:
- New Jersey and Colorado have proposed banning smoking in casinos, a move fought by the industry, which claims a prohibition would hurt income.

Washington Post:
- The Federal Election Commission indicated it plans a “non-intrusive” approach to regulating online political campaigning.

ThisDay:
- Nigeria’s oil worker unions aim to shut down the West African nation’s crude production during their planned three-day strike next month over working conditions.

Economic Releases

- Durable Goods Orders for February rose .3% versus estimates of a .9% gain and a 1.1% decline in January.
- Durables Ex Transportation for February fell .2% versus estimates of a .3% gain and an upwardly revised .9% increase in January.
- Initial Jobless Claims for last week rose to 324K versus estimates of 315K and 321K the prior week.
- Continuing Claims rose to 2673K versus estimates of 2650K and 2642K prior.
- New Home Sales for February rose to 1226K versus estimates of 1150K and 1121K in January.

Morning Buy/Sell Recommendations

Goldman Sachs:
- Raised FRNT and AWA to Outperform.

Smith Barney:
- Upgraded EL to Buy, target $52.
- Reiterated Buy on AMAT, target $22.
- Reiterated Sell on FRO, target $26.
- Reiterated Sell on SFL, target $16.
- Reiterated Buy on LEN, target $73.
- Reiterated Buy on DE, target $83.
- Reiterated Buy on CYH, target $39.
- Reiterated Sell on SNDK, target $22.

Banc of America:
- Removed AIG from Focus List and added NKE.

Bear Stearns:
- Raised ACXM to Outperform, target $29.

Lehman Brothers:
- Raised GAP to Overweight, target $18.
- Raised STX to Overweight, target $25.
- Rated DDS Underweight, target $24.

Thomas Weisel:
- Rated INPC Outperform.

Merrill Lynch:
- Reiterated Buy on XRTX, target $24.

UBS:
- Raised TTN to Buy, target $22.
- Added WMT and SLR to Select 20 List.