Tuesday, February 10, 2009

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Monday, February 09, 2009

Tuesday Watch

Late-Night Headlines
Bloomberg:

- Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner is seeking to draw investors into the U.S. financial-rescue program, aiming to add private funding as a new component of proposals to address the toxic debt clogging banks’ balance sheets. Aides worked through the weekend to complete the package that Geithner will announce tomorrow in Washington, which was delayed by a day. Aspects of the plan that have been settled include a new round of injections of taxpayer funds into banks, targeted at those identified by regulators as most in need of new capital, people briefed on the matter said. The toughest issue has been the one Geithner’s predecessor failed to address: the illiquid assets that caused the credit crunch. A leading proposal is a so-called aggregator bank, featuring investors such as hedge funds and private equity, that may issue Federal Deposit Insurance Corp.-backed debt, the people said. It’s unclear how big a role there will be for guarantees of securities that stay on banks’ balance sheets.

- Asian material and consumer stocks fell after President Barack Obama said the U.S. faces a “full- blown crisis.” Utility companies gained as oil traded near a three-week low. Futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index dropped 0.7 percent after Obama’s comments, which were made at a news conference just hours after the Senate held a procedural vote that cleared the way for passage of its stimulus bill tomorrow.

- Private companies in Asia risk being crowded out of debt markets this year as governments in the region boost bond sales to fund economic stimulus measures, according to the Asian Development Bank.

- The euro fell, halting a three-day gain against the yen, after the Nikkei newspaper reported that Russian banks and businesses may ask foreign lenders to reschedule loans worth $400 billion. The yen gained for a second day versus the dollar on speculation the financial turmoil in Europe is worsening, prompting investors to sell higher-yielding assets. The 16-nation euro also dropped against the dollar after European finance ministers signaled increasing concern that some governments are finding it harder to borrow in financial markets.

- China’s inflation cooled to the weakest pace in more than two years and producer prices fell as growth slumped in the world’s third-largest economy. Consumer prices rose 1 percent in January from a year earlier, the statistics bureau said today, after gaining 1.2 percent in December. Producer prices fell 3.3 percent, the steepest decline in almost seven years. “This puts more pressure on the central bank to cut interest rates further,” said Peng Wensheng, head of China research at Barclays Capital in Hong Kong. “In the short term, the downward pressure is on prices.” The key one-year lending rate stands at 5.31 percent after 2.16 percentage points of reductions in 2008 that followed the collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. The central bank is yet to make a reduction this year. Peng expects the rate to be cut a further 81 basis points this year after the economy grows as little as 5 percent this quarter.

- Roche Holding AG said it started a hostile $86.50-a-share bid for Genentech Inc.(DNA) after talks in which the biotechnology company said it wanted $112 a share, or 29 percent more.

- Chevron Corp., BP Plc and other oil producers are locked into drilling offshore wells that cost as much as $200 million each because of rig contracts that were signed when crude was soaring above $140 a barrel. Even as energy companies slash billions of dollars in spending to cope with the lowest prices in five years, deep-sea exploration continues unabated because canceling rig contracts would cost as much as finishing the projects, said Candida Scott, a senior director at Cambridge Energy Research Associates who tracks oil-development costs.


Wall Street Journal:

- Many U.S. banks will be subjected to rigorous examinations to see if they are healthy enough to lend before receiving additional federal rescue funds, according to people familiar with the matter. The "stress tests" will be part of the bailout revamp to be announced Tuesday by Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner. The administration intends to invest between $100 billion and $200 billion more in banks.

- As the economic slump deepens and more companies teeter at the edge of bankruptcy, a number of junk-fund managers are buying riskier bonds. How to explain this paradox? They are essentially betting that the junk-bond market overshot when it plummeted in December. Now, by buying discriminately, junk-fund managers think they can scoop up debt that won't default in a shrinking economy. Managers are starting to add bonds in previously shunned sectors such as autos, retail and gambling.

- The drug and medical-device industries are mobilizing to gut a provision in the stimulus bill that would spend $1.1 billion on research comparing medical treatments, portraying it as the first step to government rationing. Mr. Obama supported research into comparative effectiveness during his campaign. Administration officials and leading Democrats in Congress say the idea will help government programs direct their dollars to treatments that are worth the money. Officially, drug and device makers don't object to that sentiment. But they warn of a slippery slope where the government ends up axing useful treatments just because they cost too much. They have lined up patient groups that get industry funding to lobby Capitol Hill. A coalition called the Partnership to Improve Patient Care includes the lobbying arms of the drug, device and biotechnology industries as well as patient-advocacy groups and medical-professional societies. Coalition spokesman David Di Martino says the research envisioned in the House bill may be used "in an inappropriate manner that may limit treatment options for patients."

- A growing number of big companies are taking advantage of the thawing credit markets to raise large sums of money at low interest rates, with Cisco Systems Inc.(CSCO) Monday selling $4 billion in bonds to bolster its war chest for acquisitions. The big Cisco offering follows a string of successful efforts just in the past five weeks to tap the market for corporate debt. The size of the offering -- and the relatively low risk premiums attached to the bonds -- indicate that investors are hungry for debt from highly rated companies that issue infrequently.

- The global downdraft is hitting the world's emerging economies with a speed and ferocity few imagined possible just months ago. The pace of the turnaround has caught policy makers and investors off guard. In a matter of months, gauges of growth in trade and industrial production in a number of countries went from passable to falling off a cliff; even domestic demand is suffering. Asia's economies have posted the starkest declines, but the slide is evident from Latin America to Eastern Europe.


Barron’s:

- Financial Executives have responded to the gloomy economy and grim global outlook by making a number of high-profile stock purchases in recent weeks. But while insiders at other banks are shelling out for shares, a Goldman Sachs Group (GS) vice chairman pocketed $3.7 million from selling the company's stock. On Friday, Michael Sherwood sold 45,000 shares for $3.7 million, an average of $83.12 a share.


NY Times:

- To rally support for his administration’s economic recovery bill last week, President Obama invited about a dozen chief executives, seven of them from technology and energy companies, to the Oval Office. Some of their industries’ top lobbyists, meanwhile, gathered in another office where Jason Furman, a top White House economic adviser, delivered a private briefing for groups expected to benefit most from the stimulus bill. While much of the sprawling $800 billion legislation consists of tax cuts and broad spending increases for existing programs, like $27 billion on highways and $8.4 billion on public transit, the biggest outlay on new initiatives is essentially a technology industry wish list: in the Senate version, about $7 billion for expanding high-speed Internet access, some $20 billion for building a so-called smart grid power network and $20 billion for digitizing health records. To many on K Street, the stimulus bill was the clearest guide to the new administration’s closest friends in the business world. What oil was to President Bush, some say, clean energy and technology are to the Obama White House.


BusinessWeek:

- An $838 billion economic stimulus bill backed by the White House survived a key test vote in the Senate on Monday despite strong Republican opposition, and Democratic leaders vowed to deliver legislation for President Barack Obama's signature within a few days. The vote was 61-36, one more than the 60 needed to advance the measure toward Senate passage on Tuesday. That in turn, will set the stage for possibly contentious negotiations with the House on a final compromise on legislation the president says is desperately needed to tackle the worst economic crisis in more than a generation. Moments before the vote, the Congressional Budget Office issued a new estimate that put the cost at $838 billion, an increase from the $827 billion figure from last week. Ironically, the agency said provisions in the bill intended to limit bonuses to executives at firms receiving federal bailout money would result in lower tax revenues for the government.

- Best Buy(BBY), Other Retailers Tap Tech to Boost Sales. Retailers are using analytics, a new breed of tracking software, to exploit how customers behave.

CNNMoney.com:
- Ford Motor Co.(F) will introduce its first all-electric vehicle in 2010, but it will be intended for business owners - not families. The electric Transit Connect, a small van, will be offered in "select" U.S. Ford dealerships. "The new Transit Connect light commercial vehicle with battery electric power represents the next logical step in our pursuit of even greater fuel economy and sustainability," said Derrick Kuzak, Ford's group vice president for global product development in a company announcement. The van will able to to travel about 100 miles on a fully charged battery, according to Ford.

Forbes:

- The federal bailout of General Motors and Chrysler, intended to help speed the restructuring of the ailing auto industry, might be doing just the opposite. With a week to go before the companies must submit new restructuring plans to the government under terms of their $17.4 billion taxpayer loans, negotiations with bondholders and the United Auto Workers union to reduce the companies' huge debt burden seem to be going nowhere. "Everybody is just looking at each other," said Sen. Bob Corker, R-Tenn., who has been briefed on the companies' progress. "There's no real action happening as it relates to restructuring."


IBD:

- With money to spare in credit-challenged times, nursing home operator Ensign Group (ENSG) is taking advantage of a buyer's market.


Politico:

- Barack Obama has a tough act to pull off. He must simultaneously petrify people and also restore their confidence. He must scare us to death and calm our fears. He must convince the nation that the times are so dire we must carry out his bold plans immediately, and then he must persuade us to be patient and give his plans time to work. He used phrases like "full-blown crisis" and "vicious cycle." And he said that unless we do something quickly, "we may be unable to reverse" the crisis we face. Nor should his stimulus and bailout plans, as massive as they are, be considered a complete fix. "Given the magnitude of the challenges we have, any single thing we do is going to be part of solution and not all of the solution," he said.


News-Leader:

- What ever happened to President Barack Obama's promise of "hope over fear" under his leadership? With public support for his $800-plus billion economic stimulus bill dwindling, Obama and his supporters have been predicting an economic meltdown if Congress doesn't shut off debate and quickly approve the massive spending package. "A failure to act, and act now, will turn crisis into a catastrophe," the Democratic president said last week. Missouri Sen. Claire McCaskill took the rhetoric to the next level, telling the right-of-center Washington Times: "If we don't pass this thing, it's Armageddon." The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office has said the stimulus bill may do more long-term damage to America's economy than short-term good by burdening the nation with more debt, requiring more money to be taken out of the economy to pay the creditors. The rhetoric to pass the stimulus bill is a whole lot different than the platitudes of hope and promise Americans were hearing from Obama just 21 days ago. "On this day, we gather because we have chosen hope over fear, unity of purpose over conflict and discord," Obama said during his Jan. 20 inaugural address.


Reuters:

- U.S. life insurers Principal Financial (PFG), Lincoln National (LNC) and Genworth (GNW) on Monday posted fourth-quarter losses, hurt by soured investments.


Financial Times:
- Quantitative investment managers suffered a net outflow of $9.3bn in the third quarter last year as they ran for cover from the financial sector in favor of information technology and materials stocks. The activities of quantitative funds, which trade using statistical models designed to identify patterns in financial markets, are increasingly important because they account for such huge trading volumes. Tabb Group, the US consultancy, predicts that by next year algorithmic trading, one aspect of quant-investing, will account for half of all US equity trading. However, “quants” have endured a torrid few years, with their reputation taking a battering after their funds lost a third of their value in days in the early stages of the credit crisis.

- It was perhaps inevitable that protectionist tendencies and raw nationalistic instincts would resurface with the deepest economic crisis in Europe since the 1930s. The key now is to ensure these dangers do not spin out of control. It is particularly worrying that the first signs of this should occur in the UK, a country that has for so long championed the open market and free flow of capital and labor. The sight of protesters outside the Lindsey oil refinery, railing against Italian and Portuguese workers, is an amber warning light that the veneer of cross-Continent consensus for single-market principles may be thinner than we had assumed.

- Investors are buying record amounts of gold bars and coins, shunning risky assets for the relative safety of bullion amid renewed fears about the health of the global financial system. The US Mint sold 92,000 ounces of its popular American Eagle coin last month, almost four times that which it sold a year ago and more than it shipped during the whole of the first half of 2007. Other countries’ mints have also reported strong sales. “Large purchases of coins are perhaps the ultimate sign of safe-haven gold buying,” said John Reade, a precious metals strategist at UBS. Inflows into gold-backed exchange traded funds surged in January, pushing their bullion holdings to an all-time high of 1,317 tons. Last month’s flows of 105 tons were above September’s previous record of 104 tons, and absorbed about half the world’s gold mine output for January, said Barclays Capital. Traders and analysts said jewelry demand, historically the backbone of gold consumption, had collapsed under the weight of the high prices. Sharp falls in demand in the key markets of India, Turkey and the Middle East have capped the potential of any price rally. But the lack of jewelry demand has not discouraged investors.

Calgary Herald:
- A fortnight is a long time in politics. It corresponds most recently to the time between Barack Obama's inauguration as the 44th president of the United States, on the final crest of the "politics of hope," and his definitive exploitation of the "politics of fear" to get a near trillion-dollar stimulus package through the U. S. Senate. In an article he at least signed, for the Washington Post on Thursday, Obama supplied a memorable quote: "This recession might linger for years. Our economy will lose five million more jobs. Unemployment will approach double digits. Our nation will sink deeper into a crisis that, at some point, we may not be able to reverse." Compare, if you will, another Democrat president, Franklin Delano Roosevelt, who took office under considerably grimmer circumstances --at the very bottom of the Depression--in 1933: "This great nation will endure as it has endured, will revive and will prosper. "So, first of all, let me assert my firm belief that the only thing we have to fear is fear itself-- nameless, unreasoning, unjustified terror which paralyzes needed efforts to convert retreat into advance." While President Obama threatens, Democrats and Republicans tussle in the Senate over tankerloads of irrelevant pork. It is massive beyond reliable quantification. It consists on the one side of panic money thrown at ill-considered public works projects; and on the other of tax breaks for various vested interests. It would seem that for every $100 billion of controversial bailout, another $100 billion of "sweeteners" must be added to make the medicine go down. When he turns to the American people, the president or his pollsters will only see lines of division already written through Congress. Obama demands non-partisanship to get the bill passed. But opposition to the bill is huge, growing, and itself essentially non-partisan. Americans themselves are deeply troubled by the proposal that they should mortgage their children's future for a constantly growing bailout scheme that must, of necessity, reward the undeserving. Obama's political problem is not with the Senate Republicans, but with "blue dog Democrats" who represent the centre of the left-right political dial. They do not like the stimulus bill for the plausible reason that their affiliation with it could lead to their annihilation at the next election.

Nikkei:

- Russian banks and businesses may ask foreign banks to reschedule loans worth $400 billion, citing Anatoly Aksakov, the head of the Russian Assoc. of Regional Banks.


21st Century Business Herald:

- China Unicom Ltd. is in talks with Apple Inc.(AAPL) about offering the iPhone in mainland China as early as May 17.


Late Buy/Sell Recommendations
Citigroup:
- Reiterated Buy on (NUAN), target $14.

- Reiterated Buy on (HEW), target $47.

- Reiterated Buy on (GILD), target $59.


Night Trading
Asian Indices are -.50% to +.25% on average.
S&P 500 futures -1.24%.
NASDAQ 100 futures -.74%.


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Earnings of Note
Company/EPS Estimate
- (CVH)/.60

- (DTV)/.34

- (ICE)/.83

- (PBG)/.25

- (UIS)/.08

- (OMC)/.82

- (EXPD)/.35

- (TAP)/.71

- (ARW)/.59

- (MDC)/-1.23

- (PER)/.25

- (Q)/.10

- (CSC)/1.01

- (MANH)/.24

- (N)/.00

- (CBG)/.27

- (NVDA)/-.11

- (CF)/.34

- (CERN)/.61

- (AMAT)/.00

- (VFC)/1.34

- (TRA)/1.09

- (ETP)/.68


Economic Releases

10:00 am EST

- Wholesale Inventories for December are estimated to fall .7% versus a .6% decline in November.


Upcoming Splits
- (LPHI) 5-for-4


Other Potential Market Movers
- The Fed’s Dudley speaking, Geithner’s testimony on financial rescue program, Bernanke testimony, IDP/TIPP Economic Optimism, weekly retail sales reports, Deutsche Bank Growth Conference, BIO Investor Conference, UBS Global Healthcare Conference, Barclays Industrial Conference, Sterne Agee & Leach Financial Services Symposium, Goldman Ag Conference and Thomas Weisel Tech/Telecom Conference could also impact trading today.


BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by commodity and consumer stocks in the region. I expect US equities to open modestly lower and to maintain losses into the afternoon. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Finish Mostly Lower, Weighed Down by Homebuilding, Hospital and Gold Shares

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In Play

Stocks Mostly Lower into Final Hour on Low Volume Consolidation of Recent Gains

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is higher into the final hour on gains in my Computer longs, Medical longs, Financial longs, Internet longs and Education longs. I have not traded today, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. The tone of the market is slightly negative as the advance/decline line is modestly lower, sector performance is mixed and volume is below average. Investor anxiety is above average. Today’s overall market action is neutral. The VIX is rising .76% and is very high at 43.70. The ISE Sentiment Index is about average at 144.0 and the total put/call is below average at .66. Finally, the NYSE Arms has been running around average most of the day, hitting 1.04 at its intraday peak, and is currently .83. The Euro Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index is falling 2.41% today to 107.66 basis points. This index is up from a low of 52.66 on May 5th, but down from 157.81 on Sept. 16th. The North American Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index is falling 3.66% to 186.40 basis points. The TED spread is falling 1.88% to 95 basis points. The TED spread is now down 372 basis points in under four months. The 2-year swap spread is falling 5.22% to 59.0 basis points. The Libor-OIS spread is falling 2.48% to 95 basis points. The 10-year TIPS spread, a good gauge of inflation expectations, is rising 18 basis points to 1.38%, which is down 132 basis points in under seven months. The 10-year TIPS spread bottomed at .65% in October 1998 during the Asian financial crisis and at 1.24% in October 2001 during the technology bubble-bursting meltdown. The 3-month T-Bill is yielding .28%, which is up 1 basis point today. Given last week’s big stock gains, today’s low volume consolidation is a positive. Market-leading stocks are very strong again today, substantially outperforming the broad market. There still appears to me to be a large consensus among hedge fund managers that stocks will see a “sell the news” reaction to any stimulus passage and Geithner’s new financial rescue plan. I still suspect any short-term weakness in US stocks will be relatively mild and short-lived. The North American Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index is now at the lowest level since November 5th of last year. It is also noteworthy that gold is falling 2% today despite a weaker US dollar and rising inflation expectations. A fraction of the “fear premium” in gold is likely dissipating. As well, oil continues to trade very poorly given recent potential positive catalysts. Nikkei futures indicate an +215 open in Japan and DAX futures indicate a -6 open in Germany tomorrow. I expect US stocks to trade modestly higher into the close from current levels on short-covering, bargain-hunting, diminishing financial sector pessimism, falling credit market angst and less extreme economic pessimism.

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:

- The biggest bears in U.S. stocks are losing their conviction after the steepest decline in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index since the Great Depression. The number of shares borrowed and sold short on the New York Stock Exchange fell 28 percent last month from the peak in July. Companies in the S&P 500 trade at the lowest multiples of earnings in 18 years.

- Amazon.com Inc.(AMZN), the world’s largest Internet retailer, introduced a faster and thinner version of the Kindle, the electronic book reader that has sold out two years in a row. The Kindle 2 has seven times more storage than the previous model, a battery that will last up to two weeks, and a feature to read books aloud. It will sell for $359, the same price as the original Kindle, and deliveries will start Feb. 24, the Seattle-based company said today in a statement.

- The stimulus package the U.S. Congress is completing would raise the government’s commitment to solving the financial crisis to $9.7 trillion, enough to pay off more than 90 percent of the nation’s home mortgages. The $9.7 trillion in pledges would be enough to send a $1,430 check to every man, woman and child alive in the world. It’s 13 times what the U.S. has spent so far on wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, according to Congressional Budget Office data, and is almost enough to pay off every home mortgage loan in the U.S., calculated at $10.5 trillion by the Federal Reserve.

- Russia may have its credit rating reduced again in the next six months as the country’s defense of the ruble drains reserves and companies default on their debt, according to Commerzbank AG. Fitch and S&P may cut their ratings to BBB- over the next six months, said Luis Costa, an emerging markets debt strategist for Commerzbank in London.

- The cost to protect corporate bonds from default fell for a second day and reached a three-month low. Credit-default swaps on the CDX North America Investment- Grade Index, tied to the bonds of 125 companies in the U.S. and Canada, fell 7.5 basis points to 186 basis points as of 11:04 a.m. in New York, according to broker Phoenix Partners Group. In London, contracts on the Markit iTraxx Europe index of 125 companies with investment-grade ratings fell 5.5 basis points to 143.5 basis points, JPMorgan Chase & Co. prices show. Contracts on Citigroup, the New York-based bank that received $45 billion in government aid and last month announced plans to split itself into two companies, fell 10 basis points to 270 basis points, Phoenix prices show. Swaps on Bank of America declined 10 basis points to 170, according to Phoenix. Contracts on JPMorgan narrowed 1 basis point to 112 basis points, Phoenix prices show. Morgan Stanley swaps fell four basis points to 324 basis points, according to CMA DataVision.

- US home prices will reach bottom by the end of the year, concluding a slide that will have cut values 36%, Moody’s Economy.com said. “Notwithstanding the intensifying economic gloom, the bottom of the housing downturn is within sight,” chief economist Mark Zandi said today.

- Gold fell for the first time in four sessions on expectations the U.S. Congress will pass a smaller- than-expected stimulus package to revive the economy, easing the risk of accelerating inflation. Gold had climbed on speculation that government spending will spark inflation. Investment in the SPDR Gold Trust, the biggest exchange-traded fund backed by bullion, rose to a record 867.2 metric tons on Feb. 5. Speculative long positions, or bets prices will rise, outnumbered short positions by 155,306 contracts on the Comex in the week ended Feb. 3, Commodity Futures Trading Commission data showed on Feb. 6. Net-long positions rose by 14,192 contracts, or 10 percent, from a week earlier.

- Crude oil traded little changed in New York amid doubts a $780 billion stimulus plan in the U.S. will lead to a rapid recovery in global energy demand. Senate and Congress lawmakers due to vote on the plan today and tomorrow are more than “90 percent” agreed on its contents, Lawrence Summers, director of the National Economic Council, said yesterday. U.S. crude inventories have climbed in 17 of the past 19 weeks, leaving them 15 percent higher than the five-year average for the period, the Energy Department said. The prospect of further production cuts by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and strike action in Nigeria, the fifth-largest supplier of oil to the U.S., failed to push crude beyond its recent trading band. Saudi Aramco, the world’s biggest state oil company, will reduce crude supplies to Japan in March for a fourth month, refinery officials said. New York oil futures have fallen 10 percent this year and are down 73 percent from the record $147.27 reached July 11. Speculative long positions, or bets prices will rise, outnumbered short positions by 29,276 contracts on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the Washington-based commission said in its Commitments of Traders report.

- ITC Holdings Corp.(ITC) said it wants to build the world’s largest renewable-energy transmission system, a $12 billion project to bring electricity from wind farms in the Dakotas to Chicago. The Michigan power transmission company’s proposal, known as the Green Power Express, calls for about 3,000 miles of new lines that could move 12,000 megawatts of power from the upper Midwest to cities where there’s demand for the electricity. The project, announced today, would cross portions of North and South Dakota, Minnesota, Iowa, Wisconsin, Illinois and Indiana, according to the company.

- China said it was “seriously concerned” at Indian barriers to its exports, highlighting global trade tensions as the worst financial crisis since World War II sends demand plummeting. India’s use of sanctions may have “a serious impact on bilateral trade relations,” Ministry of Commerce spokesman Yao Jian said in a statement on the ministry’s Web site today. India imposed a six-month ban on imports of Chinese toys last month. “Buy American” provisions in a U.S. economic stimulus package were watered down last week after warnings from President Barack Obama and foreign leaders that they risked triggering a trade war. British Prime Minister Gordon Brown described “a retreat into protectionism” as the biggest danger facing the world economy.

- Barclays Plc reported second-half profit that exceeded analysts’ estimates, and President Robert Diamond said the investment bank had an “extremely strong” start to 2009 after buying Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. assets. Barclays, the third-biggest U.K. bank by assets, rose 11 percent in London trading after saying writedowns this year will be less than last year’s 8.1 billion pounds.

- Hartford Financial Services Group Inc.(HIG), the Connecticut-based insurer that lost $2.75 billion last year, rose in New York trading on speculation the government and regulators will provide financial relief. Hartford advanced $2.66, or 21 percent, to $15.34 at 10:34 a.m. in New York Stock Exchange composite trading. Life insurers including Hartford may be approved for capital injections from the Treasury as soon as today, Reuters reported on Feb. 7, citing unidentified people. The firm may be allowed by its state regulator to reduce reserves to bolster finances, a person familiar with the matter said on Feb. 6.

- Lawmakers are “killing” hotels that rely on corporate events by forcing companies that get federal money to scale back on employee trips, said James Tisch, the chief executive officer of Loews Corp.(L) “Congress has done a great job of killing the resort hotel business with the way they’ve criticized a number of financial firms for having conferences,” Tisch told analysts today. “I just heard this morning of another investor conference that was canceled by another major investment firm because of fear of being criticized by members of Congress.”


Wall Street Journal:

- A substantial increase in the amount of electricity produced from renewable energy would require building a transmission system that would carry a price tag of up to $100 billion, according to a new study. The new system would be needed because the existing eastern grid couldn't handle the volume of power coming from the wind-producing states. In addition, the new grid would need to be able to handle the fluctuating nature of wind power, which can surge at some moments and drop sharply at others. There is strong political and public support for increasing production of renewable energy, and Congress is considering enacting a nationwide standard that would require utilities to garner more of their power from renewable sources. However, there is only an emerging understanding of how new standards would affect the country's existing electricity infrastructure.

- The European Central Bank has room to cut interest rates further as the euro area suffers its worst recession since WWII, Spanish Finance Minister Pedro Solbes said in an opinion piece in the Wall Street Journal.

- Last summer, gasoline prices soared, the economy soured, and Americans began driving less and driving slower. None of this felt good at the time, but nevertheless something good happened. Two separate studies of fatal auto accident statistics released recently indicate that traffic deaths fell significantly in 2008, possibly by as much as 10%. Moreover, the preliminary data on 2008 highway deaths suggests that fatal accidents declined faster than vehicle miles traveled – in other words, the decline in fatalities may not simply be the result of fewer people driving.


CNBC.com:
- Government action to shore up the economy and improve the housing climate probably will send mortgage rates to 4.5 percent, Bill Gross, co-CEO at the Pimco bond fund, said Monday. In addition to driving down mortgage rates and stimulating home-buying, the government's efforts also could include a move to cap Treasurys rates to encourage investors to take more risk, Gross said during a live interview on CNBC.

- OPEC is willing to cut oil output further at a meeting in March, the group's secretary-general said on Monday, adding he would like to see full compliance with existing curbs first. Abdullah al-Badri also told reporters in a briefing that OPEC's compliance with existing oil supply curbs of 4.2 million barrels per day (bpd) was about 80 percent, based on preliminary data, higher than some estimates.

- McDonald’s(MCD) said Monday that worldwide sales at its restaurants open at least 13 months rose 7.1 percent in January, driven by strength at home and abroad. The world's largest hamburger chain, whose shares were up slightly in early trading, said January same-store sales rose 5.4 percent in the United States due to demand for McDonald's core menu and breakfast items.


NY Times:

- MLB.TV Adds High-Definition Video, Custom Replays. Most media companies these days are desperately searching for ways to get people to pay for their content on the Web. Major League Baseball is not one of them.

- Would you trust a Web site created by anonymous individuals to give you better advice on stocks than professional advisers? Wikinvest hopes so.


Financial News:

- Wealthy US investors are pulling out of hedge funds at an unprecedented rate and will not return for a generation, according to the founder of Tiger 21, the networking group for high net worth and ultra-high net worth investors.


TechWhack:

- Apple(AAPL) working on a HDTV with iTunes and Apple TV built in? Gene Munster of Piper Jaffray has predicted that Apple is soon going to launch their own Apple branded television sets that would feature DVR functionality in addition to inbuilt support for Apple TV and iTunes. He said in a report: We expect Apple to design a connected television over the next two years (launching in 2011) with DVR functionality built in. These recorded shows could then sync with Macs, iPhones and iPods over a wireless network.


Reuters:
- US Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner will testify at 2:30 pm EST tomorrow before the Senate Banking Committee on the Troubled Asset Relief Program.

- U.S. bank shares rose on Monday, boosted by hopes that a government bailout plan due on Tuesday will spare shareholders and help troubled financial institutions rid their balance sheets of toxic assets. The KBW Banks Index .BKX was up 2.57 percent.

Financial Times:
- The brokerage arm of UBS has launched an aggressive hiring spree in the US, offering financial advisers large pay packages to lure them away from rivals such as Merrill Lynch, Morgan Stanley and Citigroup. The bank, which has suffered big credit-related losses and received a capital injection from the Swiss government, promised some brokers compensation equal to almost three times their yearly profits, according to documents seen by the Financial Times. UBS Financial Services has added more than 400 brokers to its 8,000-strong network in the past few months, insiders say. The moves have enraged rivals, who claim the Swiss group’s big pay offers have triggered a costly price war for brokers when most banks, including UBS, are struggling to cope with losses. Merrill Lynch is believed to have lost more than 100 brokers to the group.

Handelsblatt:

- Dailmler AG may reintroduce the four-seat version of its Smart small car to counter high gasoline prices and falling sales of its larger automobiles.


Aktualne:

- Czech Foreign Affairs Minister Karel Schwarzenberg said the plan for a US anti-missile shield in Europe may be delayed five years because of the global financial crisis.

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Xinhua:
- Beijing house prices may fall as much as 20% this year, citing Chen Xikang, a researcher at the Academy of Mathematics & Systems Science. Other major cities may experience similar declines, citing Chen, who’s also a World Bank consultant. Chinese house prices far exceed the actual incomes of the general public, citing Chen. The real-estate market is unlikely to recover quickly like it did in 1997 and 1998, when China used favorable policies to boost the market following the Asian financial crisis, citing Zhang Qi, a professor at Beijing Normal University.

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:
Small-cap Growth (-.77%)

Sector Underperformers:
Hospitals (-2.56%), Gold (-2.48%) and Medical Equipment (-1.29%)

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:
MMSI, HMY, CTRP, ITRI, NRT and MCY

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
1) MOT 2) GFI 3) BAX 4) WMI 5) PTEN