Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth +.39%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Coal +1.90% 2) Disk Drives +1.80% 3) Networking +1.51%
  

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• EGHT, WNC, PDFS, CBEY, INFN, NTE, BMRN, GNRC, RIG, BRKR, ROK, SINA, KBW, BCO, DRIV, HUN and MTZ

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) MPEL 2) NE 3) HES 4) MDVN 5) ESRX
  

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) DOV 2) MDF 3) TGT 4) LMT 5) NRG

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume 
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Monday Watch

Weekend Headlines 
Bloomberg: 

• Euro Area Resolve for Single Currency Faces Greek Test. European leaders’ determination to keep Greece in the euro area will be tested this week as Prime Minister Antonis Samaras struggles to secure political support for measures to assure the country’s financial lifeline. Samaras pledged yesterday that the raft of wage and pension cuts in the latest austerity package will be the last and that Greek society won’t tolerate any more, according to comments made to lawmakers of his New Democracy party. The first parliamentary vote in Athens may come as early as Nov. 7. “The Greek risk could come to a head this week,” Holger Schmieding, chief economist at Berenberg Bank AG, wrote in a Nov. 2 note. “Greece matters as a trigger of potential contagion to the much bigger economies of Italy and Spain.”
• EU Debt Crisis Seen Hindering Closer Trade Ties With Asia. European and Asian leaders will this week discuss a stalled trade agenda between the world’s fastest and slowest-growing regions, as the debt crisis undermines expansion of commercial ties. Europe’s economic woes may exacerbate protectionist tendencies that make it harder to expand trade with its biggest commerce partner at a time when the U.S. and Australia are forging new agreements, according to Fredrik Erixon, head of the European Centre for International Political Economy in Brussels. Apart from a trade deal with South Korea, the 27-member European Union has seen talks lag with China, Japan, India and Southeast Asian countries since 2007. “Europe needs to improve its policy toward the entire Asian region in order to take up a greater part of Asia’s economic expansion, but we’re not really seeing it,” he said by phone. “The train is about to leave the station and Europe certainly isn’t on it.”
• G-20 Tells U.S. to Avoid Fiscal Cliff as Focus Widens. Global finance chiefs pressed the U.S. to avoid harming the fragile world economy with excessive austerity, widening their focus on fiscal challenges beyond concerns over Europe’s debt woes. On the eve of the U.S. presidential election, Group of 20 finance ministers and central bankers meeting in Mexico City pushed for swift action to prevent the $607 billion in tax increases and spending cuts that will hit in January unless lawmakers act. As President Barack Obama and Republican Mitt Romney tussle for the White House, the fear of foreign officials is that failure to limit the damage of the so-called fiscal cliff would tip the world’s largest economy into recession and drag their countries down with it.
• Chanos: Still Shorting China Bank Shares. (video)
• China’s Stocks Drop on Data Before Leadership Change, U.S. Polls. China’s stocks fell for the first time in five days as investors assessed reports on China’s non- manufacturing industries before a leadership transition and the U.S. presidential election this week. Jiangxi Copper Co. led declines for metal producers after a gauge of raw materials slid by the most in a month on Nov. 2. PetroChina Co., the biggest energy producer, dropped after Shanghai-based commodity researcher C1 said China may cut fuel prices on Nov. 15 by 310 yuan a ton.
• China Probes Wen’s Family Wealth After NYT Story, SCMP Says. China began a probe of Premier Wen Jiabao’s wealth at his request after the New York Times reported his relatives had amassed at least $2.7 billion of assets, the South China Morning Post reported today. The premier called for a formal inquiry in a letter to the Communist Party’s Politburo Standing Committee, of which he is a member, the newspaper said, citing unidentified people. Conservative party elders who dislike Wen’s more liberal stance have called on him to explain the New York Times’s reporting, the sources said, according to the South China Morning Post.
• H.K. Used Home Sales Fall on Non-Locals Tax. The number of property transactions recorded at Hong Kong’s 10 largest estates on the weekend fell to the lowest level since January as a tax on non-local buyers imposed last month curbs investors’ interest.
• Sharp Default Odds Seen at 94.9% as Panasonic Cut: Japan Credit. Sharp (6753) Corp.’s bond risk is signaling a 94.9 percent chance of default in five years as the yen near postwar highs swells losses at Japanese electronics companies, prompting Standard & Poor’s to cut Panasonic Corp. (6752)’s rating. The cost of insuring 1 billion yen ($12.4 million) of Sharp’s debt for five years rose by 125 million yen in the past month to 680 million yen in advance and 10 million yen annually, according to data provider CMA. Credit-default swaps of Panasonic and Sony Corp. (6758) have also surged, with contracts pricing in a non-payment risk of about 30 percent.
• Hedge Funds Reduce Bullish Bets Most in Five Months: Commodities. Hedge funds cut bullish wagers on commodities by the most since June as prices retreated to a three-month low on mounting concern that Europe’s debt crisis will worsen and U.S. growth slow. Money managers reduced combined net-long positions across 18 U.S. futures and options in the week ended Oct. 30 by 11 percent to 1.05 million contracts, the lowest since July 10, Commodity Futures Trading Commission data show. Copper holdings fell to an eight-week low, and gold wagers are now the smallest since September. Gasoline bets declined for a fourth week, and those in oil reached the lowest level in four months as Hurricane Sandy forced U.S. East Coast refineries to shut.
• Rebels Bomb Syrian Army Headquarters and Seize Oilfield in East. A bomb exploded yesterday near the Syrian army’s headquarters in Damascus in an attack claimed by rebel forces that also were said to have seized control of an oilfield in the east. The blast occurred near an officers’ club and close to the government workers’ union parking lot, according to Dubai-based television network Al Arabiya. Syrian state TV said several people were injured in the attack, which the government blamed on “terrorists.” Two of the 12 union members hurt by shattered glass were in critical condition, the Associated Press reported, citing union chief Mohammad Azouz.

Wall Street Journal: 

• Election 2012: Streaming Coverage.
• Votes of Independents Could be Key. The Republican nominee is leading among independent voters 47% to 40%, in a new national Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll. Independents accounted for about 14% of likely voters in the Journal survey.
• Media Firms Signal Sluggish Ads. Warning signs from several big advertising companies late last month about a significant slowdown in ad spending puts the spotlight on U.S. media-company earnings due this week.
• Health-Care Law Spurs a Shift to Part-Time Workers. 
• Obama's Progressive Gamble. He bet his Presidency on expanding government because that's who he is.
• Sheldon G. Adelson: I Didn't Leave the Democrats. They Left Me. There is an anti-Israel movement among the rank and file, and the party no longer appears to value self-reliance, charity and accountability.

Fox News:

• Germany's Roesler: Greek Debt Relief Would Hurt German Budget - Report. German Economics Minister Philipp Roesler rejects having official creditors renounce claims on Greece's debt, arguing this would blow a hole into Germany's budget and potentially endanger the country's top credit rating. Mr. Roesler, of the business-friendly FDP party in Germany's center-right governing coalition, told business magazine Wirtschaftswoche that Greek debt forgiveness from official creditors "would ultimately also bleed through to the federal budget and this gap" would need to be filled. Furthermore, Germany "itself can't miss its [budgetary] targets, rather must remain an anchor of stability and solidity in the euro zone." 
• Exclusive: Security officials on the ground in Libya challenge CIA account. (video) Despite a carefully narrated version of events rolled out late this week by the CIA claiming agents jumped into action as soon as they were notified of calls for help in Benghazi, security officials on the ground say calls for help went out considerably earlier -- and signs of an attack were mounting even before that. The accounts, from foreign and American security officials in and around Benghazi at the time of the attack, indicate there was in fact a significant lag between when the threat started to show itself and help started to arrive.

Business Insider:

• Hoboken Pier Suffered 'Overwhelming' Devastation. (video) 
• A Full On The Ground Look At Hurricane Sandy's Local Devastation. (pics) 
• There's Another Financial Crisis That's Just As Dangerous As The Sovereign Debt Crisis. 
• RED HOOK: 'It's So Depressing, People Don't Know What To Do'. (pics)
• Sheryl Sandberg And Other Facebook(FB) Execs Have Started Selling Stock. 
• MELTDOWN COMING: Canada Is Bleeding Private Sector Jobs, And Its Housing Market Is Tanking. 
• A Big Change In This Poll Question Is Great News For Mitt Romney. In the new poll, 43% of likely voters surveyed said that the nation's economy would only get better if Romney was elected. Only 34% said the same would happen if Obama is re-elected, a significant change from August, when the president had a slim lead on the issue. Moreover, voters don't hold a very positive view of the nation's economy. Only 28% of those surveyed say the nation's economic conditions are good, compared with 71% that say they are poor. That's a worse reading for the economy from a CNN/ORC poll taken in early September, when 32% said it was good and 68% rated it as poor.
• China's HSBC Services PMI Slips. (graph) 
• Trillions Of Dollars Worth Of Stocks May Have Been Damaged By Hurricane Sandy.
• It May Take Months To Get The NYC Commuter Trains Back To Normal. 
• DEAR TRADERS: The 'Biggest Political Risk' In The World Is Looking More And More Possible.

Zero Hedge: 

• After The Flood Comes The Freeze: "Tens Of Thousands Need Housing" Says Cuomo, As Nor'Easter Approaches.
• Step Aside Apple Line, Here Comes The Gas Line: Photo Album Of A Nation Waiting, Waiting, Waiting. 
• Friday Humor: The ECB Explains What A Ponzi Scheme Is; Awkward Silence Follows. 
• Syrian Tanks Enter Golan Heights DMZ, Israel Military Warns. 
• Is This Why Markets Can't Catch A Bernanke Bid? (graph)
• Job Creation Under Barack Obama: Less Than Meets The Eye? (graph) In summary: while those in the 55-69 age group have gained nearly 4 million jobs under President Obama, everyone else has lost just over 2.5 million. 
• China 'Addicted To Credit'.
• Is A 15%-Plus Devaluation Coming For Spain And Greece?
• Spanish Banks May Face €17 Billion Margin Call As ECB Found To Lie About Collateral Haircuts.

CNBC:  

• GM(GM) Badly Lags Ford(F) in Europe Restructuring. 

CNN:

• I'm Young, Female and... Voting for Romney.

Forbes: 

• Obama Knew by 2PM on September 12 at the Latest but Invented a False Narrative Nevertheless. The American people must believe in the veracity and forthrightness of their commander in chief. Barack Obama concurs (November 2, New York Times): “You do want to be able to trust your president. You want to know that the president means what he says, and says what he means. And after four years as president, you know me.” We’ll we may know more than we wish to.

Rasmussen Reports:

• Daily Presidential Tracking Poll. The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Sunday shows the race tied with President Obama and Mitt Romney each attracting support from 49% of voters nationwide.

Reuters:  

• Utilities feel heat as 1.9 mln still dark after Sandy. About 1.9 million homes and businesses remained in the dark on Sunday as pressure mounted on power companies to restore electricity to areas hit hardest by Hurricane Sandy nearly a week ago. 
• Libyan militiamen set Tripoli security HQ on fire, loot shops. Libyan militiamen set a security headquarters building on fire on Sunday in central Tripoli and looted it as fighting raged with a rival armed militia. Government-aligned fighters also looted shops in the Zawiya Street area which was strewn with goods and debris.
• Mail-in ballots: the hanging chads of 2012?

USA Today:

• Q&A: Looming small business tax hike explained.

Telegraph: 

• China's economic destiny in doubt after leadership shock. The forces of reaction and economic folly threaten to prevail in China. The long political arm of Jiang Zemin has reached out from the shadows to thwart reform, with huge implications for Asia and the world.

WirtschaftsWoche:

• The euro group of finance ministers is considering forcing the implementation of reforms in Greece even if the country's parliament hasn't approved them. 
• Thomas Mayer, former Deutsche Bank AG chief economist, said Europe should not give many more credit to finance Greece's budget, citing Mayer. The agreed EUR71b in aid that has not yet been paid out should be used to stop a potential Greek banking collapse. Greece's banks should be transferred to the ESM and made into EU banks to prevent them from being used as "money machines" for the Greek state, said Mayer.

DPA:

• German Chancellor Angela Merkel said Europe needs "a long breath" of five years and more until the currency and economic crisis in the region has been overcome, citing Merkel. Large, structural changes needed to restore euro-area confidence among investors and create economic momentum. Europe needs "rigor" to convince the world that it's worth investing in Europe, Merkel said.

Sueddeutsche Zeitung:

• European Central Bank Governing Council member Erkki Liikanen urged shareholders and creditors to take over losses at distressed banks, citing an interview with Liikanen. Still risk in the banking system that profits stay at banks while losses are assumed by taxpayers, he said.

Handelsblatt:

• A majority of the 15 economists from the ECB shadow council said it is "too early" for a second debt cut for Greece. It would send a "wrong signal" to other countries with an aid program, citing Jose Alzola, who works for the monetary policy advisory firm Observatory Group.

Kyodo:

• Mazda China Oct. Sales Fall 45% y/y to 9,511 Vehicles.

China Securities Journal:

• China's economic situation won't be "optimistic" in 2013 as exports face "large pressure" and government-led investment can't last, citing Xia Bin, a researcher with the State Council's Development Research Center.

Weekend Recommendations

Barron's:

• Made positive comments on (ELY), (CSX) and (BK).
• Made negative comments on (RDN).

Night Trading

• Asian indices are -.50% to unch. on average.
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 118.0 unch.
• Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 90.5 -3.25 basis points.
• FTSE-100 futures -.35%.
• S&P 500 futures +.23%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures +.28%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate 

• (HUM)/2.05
• (ROK)/1.32
• (ICE)/1.73
• (SYY)/.50
• (CVD)/.67
• (MDR)/.24
• (CF)/5.75
• (Z)/.07
• (EOG)/1.11
• (ESRX)/.99
• (WRC)/1.15

Economic Releases
10:00 am EST

• ISM Non-Manufacturing for October is estimated to fall to 54.5 versus 55.1 in September.

Upcoming Splits

• (HMST) 2-for-1

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Williams speaking, RBA rate decision and the Robert W. Baird Industrial Conference could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by technology and real estate shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the week.

Weekly Outlook

U.S. Week Ahead by MarketWatch (video). 
Wall St. Week Ahead by Reuters.
Stocks to Watch Monday by MarketWatch.
Weekly Economic Calendar by Briefing.com.

BOTTOM LINE: I expect US stocks to finish the week mixed as rising Eurozone debt angst, US "fiscal cliff" concerns and the effects of Hurricane Sandy offset an end to US election uncertainty, bargain-hunting and short-covering. My intermediate-term trading indicators are giving neutral signals and the Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the week.

Market Week in Review

S&P 500 1,414.20 +.39%*



The Weekly Wrap by Briefing.com.

*5-Day Change

Weekly Scoreboard*

Indices

• S&P 500 1,414.20 +.39%
• DJIA 13,093.10 +.12%
• NASDAQ 2,982.13 +.01%
• Russell 2000 814.37 +.09%
• Value Line Geometric(broad market) 355.41 +.89%
• Russell 1000 Growth 651.97 +.47%
• Russell 1000 Value 707.52 +.53%
• Morgan Stanley Consumer 831.76 +.15%
• Morgan Stanley Cyclical 1,005.44 +1.91%
• Morgan Stanley Technology 649.81 +.66%
• Transports 5,110.17 +2.11%
• Utilities 469.78 -.91%
• Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 86.82 +3.04%
• MSCI Emerging Markets 41.64 +.99%
• Lyxor L/S Equity Long Bias 1,058.18 -.30%
• Lyxor L/S Equity Variable Bias 792.60 -.75%

Sentiment/Internals

• NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 159,138 +.96%
• Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index 183 +240
• Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 43.3 +3.84%
• CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 169,575 -9.02%
• CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,597,501 +1.17%
• Total Put/Call .90 -9.09%
• OEX Put/Call 1.02 -13.56%
• ISE Sentiment 135.0 +27.4%
• NYSE Arms 1.29 -18.9%
• Volatility(VIX) 17.59 -1.23%
• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 53.05 +1.47%
• G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 7.48 -3.23%
• Smart Money Flow Index 11,171.54 -.38%
• Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $2.546 Trillion -.90%
• AAII % Bulls 35.7 +22.2%
• AAII % Bears 41.0 -4.9%

Futures Spot Prices

• CRB Index 292.29 -1.53%
• Crude Oil 84.86 -1.60%
• Reformulated Gasoline 257.36 -2.94%
• Natural Gas 3.55 -4.56%
• Heating Oil 294.74 -4.22%
• Gold 1,675.20 -2.13%
• Bloomberg Base Metals Index 203.05 +1.26%
• Copper 348.15 -2.21%
• US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 347.67 USD/Ton unch.
• China Iron Ore Spot 120.10 USD/Ton +.42%
• Lumber 321.40 +.12%
• UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,634.98 -.53%

Economy

• ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate +5.9% -10 basis points
• Philly Fed ADS Real-Time Business Conditions Index -.1185 +7.5%
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 111.49 -.26%
• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 56.60 +2.0 points
• Fed Fund Futures imply 58.0% chance of no change, 42.0% chance of 25 basis point cut on 12/12
• US Dollar Index 80.59 +.74%
• Yield Curve 143.0 -2 basis points
• 10-Year US Treasury Yield 1.71% -4 basis points
• Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $2.805 Trillion -.64%
• U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 32.83 +9.95%
• Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 180.0 -4.88%
• Western Europe Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 109.55 +3.96%
  
• Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt CDS Index 174.35 -3.46%
  
• Saudi Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 79.62 -2.20%
• Iraq Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 460.03 +4.36%
• China Blended Corporate Spread Index 385.0 +5 basis points
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.48% +1 basis point
• TED Spread 22.25 +2.0 basis points
• 2-Year Swap Spread 9.75 -.25 basis point
• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -25.50 -1.75 basis points
• N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 95.89 -3.01%
  
• European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 172.33 -1.52%
  
• Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 240.98 +4.96%
  
• CMBS Super Senior AAA 10-Year Treasury Spread 90.0 unch.
• M1 Money Supply $2.417 Trillion -.53%
• Commercial Paper Outstanding 945.80 +2.30%
• 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 367,300 -700
• Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 2.5% unch.
• Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate 3.39% -2 basis points
• Weekly Mortgage Applications 808.0 -4.75%
• Bloomberg Consumer Comfort -34.7 -.1 point
• Weekly Retail Sales +1.60% unch.
• Nationwide Gas $3.50/gallon -.08/gallon
• U.S. Heating Demand Next 7 Days right at normal
• Baltic Dry Index 1,000 -4.67%
• China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 1,159.62 -.55%
• Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 22.50 unch.
• Rail Freight Carloads 253,186 -.27%

Best Performing Style

• Mid-Cap Value +1.15%

Worst Performing Style

• Small-Cap Growth -.09%

Leading Sectors

• I-Banking +3.31%
• Steel +3.31%
• Semis +3.27%
• Software +3.16%
• Restaurants +3.07%

Lagging Sectors

• Disk Drives -1.76%
• Oil Service -2.08%
• Homebuilders -2.28%
• Computer Hardware -2.81%
• Biotech -3.96%

Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (25)

• SHF, WRC, JDAS, OPNT, CVLT, PVH, GNRC, CLH, TREX, STC, MDSO, NUS, LBY, EGBN, DIN, BBRG, CAVM, POL, EVER, ICON, TBI, ACAT, LL, STMP and CSTR
  

Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (29)

• HURN, SYNA, DTG, THG, ESI, TWGP, PRLB, GLT, ALXN, TDC, MM, EXC, IRG, IPGP, QEP, ANGI, GTLS, COHR, NCMI, WBMD, WCG, LPS, IPXL, AAWW, FARO, CRUS, ZUMZ, ABMD and WU
  

Weekly Charts
ETFs

• High-Volume Gainers
• High-Volume Losers

Stocks

• High-Volume Gainers
• High-Volume Losers

*5-Day Change

Stocks Falling into Final Hour on Rising Global Growth Fears, Rising Eurozone Debt Angst, US Election/Fiscal Cliff Uncertainty, Homebuilding/Tech/Commodity Sector Weakness

 Broad Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  
• Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Declining
• Volume: Below Average
• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line

Equity Investor Angst:

• VIX 17.21 +3.12%
• ISE Sentiment Index 146.0+15.9%
• Total Put/Call .89 -1.11%
• NYSE Arms 1.03 +31.62%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 97.39 bps +1.15%
• European Financial Sector CDS Index 172.42 bps +.75%
• Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 109.93 bps +1.69%
• Emerging Market CDS Index 241.14 bps -.71%
• 2-Year Swap Spread 9.75 +.25 basis point
• TED Spread 22.0 unch.
• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -25.5 -.75 basis point

Economic Gauges:

• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .09% unch.
• Yield Curve 143.0 unch.
• China Import Iron Ore Spot $120.10/Metric Tonne -.17%
• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 56.60 +5.2 points
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.48 -4 basis points

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei Futures: Indicating -31 open in Japan
• DAX Futures: Indicating -36 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my index hedges
• Disclosed Trades: None
• Market Exposure: 25% Net Long