Weekly Outlook

U.S. Week Ahead by MarketWatch (video). 
Wall St. Week Ahead by Reuters.
Stocks to Watch Monday by MarketWatch.
Weekly Economic Calendar by Briefing.com.

BOTTOM LINE: I expect US stocks to finish the week mixed as more Eurozone debt angst, rising US "fiscal cliff" concerns and global growth fears offset bargain-hunting, technical buying and short-covering. My intermediate-term trading indicators are giving neutral signals and the Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the week.

Market Week in Review

S&P 500 1,379.85 -2.43%*



The Weekly Wrap by Briefing.com.

*5-Day Change

Weekly Scoreboard*

Indices

• S&P 500 1,379.85 -2.43%
• DJIA 12,815.39 -2.12%
• NASDAQ 2,904.87 -2.59%
• Russell 2000 795.02 -2.38%
• Value Line Geometric(broad market) 347.25 -2.30%
• Russell 1000 Growth 638.50 -2.07%
• Russell 1000 Value 688.67 -2.66%
• Morgan Stanley Consumer 813.93 -2.14%
• Morgan Stanley Cyclical 988.22 -1.71%
• Morgan Stanley Technology 640.72 -1.40%
• Transports 5,018.28 -1.80%
• Utilities 448.11 -4.61%
• Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 84.14 -1.16%
• MSCI Emerging Markets 41.14 -1.20%
• Lyxor L/S Equity Long Bias 1,062.60 +.46%
• Lyxor L/S Equity Variable Bias 801.15 +.83%

Sentiment/Internals

• NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 154,548 -2.9%
• Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index -243 -386
• Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 21.21 -51.0%
• CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 165,844 -2.20%
• CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,614,897 +1.09%
• Total Put/Call 1.17 +30.0%
• OEX Put/Call 1.0 -1.96%
• ISE Sentiment 93.0 -31.1%
• NYSE Arms .82 -36.43%
• Volatility(VIX) 18.61 +5.80%
• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 56.70 +6.88%
• G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 7.54 +.80%
• Smart Money Flow Index 10,868.32 -2.71%
• Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $2.578 Trillion +1.2%
• AAII % Bulls 38.5 +7.7%
• AAII % Bears 39.9 -2.6%

Futures Spot Prices

• CRB Index 292.22 -.03%
• Crude Oil 86.07 +1.51%
• Reformulated Gasoline 269.92 +4.66%
• Natural Gas 3.50 -1.24%
• Heating Oil 300.55 +1.88%
• Gold 1,730.90 +3.18%
• Bloomberg Base Metals Index 198.94 -2.02%
• Copper 344.55 -1.08%
• US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 307.53 USD/Ton -11.6%
• China Iron Ore Spot 122.10 USD/Ton +1.66%
• Lumber 332.20 +2.88%
• UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,611.13 -1.37%

Economy

• ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate +5.1% -80 basis points
• Philly Fed ADS Real-Time Business Conditions Index -.0765 +11.5%
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 111.41 -.06%
• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 60.70 +4.1 points
• Fed Fund Futures imply 56.0% chance of no change, 44.0% chance of 25 basis point cut on 12/12
• US Dollar Index 81.06 +.62%
• Yield Curve 135.0 -8 basis points
• 10-Year US Treasury Yield 1.61% -10 basis points
• Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $2.813 Trillion +.27%
• U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 38.0 +15.75%
• Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 179.0 -.98%
• Western Europe Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 113.39 +3.51%
  
• Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt CDS Index 182.50 +4.67%
  
• Saudi Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 78.50 -1.15%
• Iraq Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 425.0 -7.62%
• China Blended Corporate Spread Index 394.0 +9 basis points
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.43% -5 basis points
• TED Spread 21.75 -.5 basis point
• 2-Year Swap Spread 11.75 +2.0 basis points
• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -26.75 -1.25 basis points
• N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 105.34 +9.85%
  
• European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 179.0 +3.87%
  
• Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 239.58 -.58%
  
• CMBS Super Senior AAA 10-Year Treasury Spread 90.0 unch.
• M1 Money Supply $2.430 Trillion +.52%
• Commercial Paper Outstanding 963.60 +1.90%
• 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 370,500 +3,200
• Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 2.4% -10 basis points
• Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate 3.40% +1 basis point
• Weekly Mortgage Applications 768.0 -4.95%
• Bloomberg Consumer Comfort -34.4 +.3 point
• Weekly Retail Sales +.8% -80 basis points
• Nationwide Gas $3.46/gallon -.04/gallon
• U.S. Heating Demand Next 7 Days 9.0% below normal
• Baltic Dry Index 916.0 -7.1%
• China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 1,155.90 -.32%
• Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 25.0 +11.11%
• Rail Freight Carloads 224,467 -11.34%

Best Performing Style

• Mid-Cap Growth -1.61%

Worst Performing Style

• Small-Cap Value -2.78%

Leading Sectors

• Airlines +3.16%
• Networking +1.72%
• Gold & Silver +1.20%
• Hospitals +.10%
• HMOs -.29%

Lagging Sectors

• I-Banks -4.53%
• Disk Drives -4.58%
• Utilities -4.61%
• Coal -6.70%
• Education -8.62%

Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (17)

• BGFV, BMRN, VHC, SLCA, SWHC, ENOC, CSC, RGR, MED, JOE, VHS, MYGN, AOL, WTW, CCXI, SAPE and HCA
  

Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (52)

• TBBK, RSG, EXC, GLF, AWI, IMPV, VCRA, NYX, MYRG, PRGO, MRC, AUXL, HUM, ATR, DISCA, BOX, TDW, GUID, NCMI, KYAK, WAGE, FLR, ETR, APEI, VRTU, ENDP, PSEC, CHTR, ESRX, FOSL, BCOR, CATM, LPSN, AWAY, GMED, FSYS, APAGF, BSFT, RHP, INFI, PLXS, CDE, AT, PCYC, BV, TRLA, EBIX, BTH, YELP, PANL, Z and VVUS
  

Weekly Charts
ETFs

• High-Volume Gainers
• High-Volume Losers

Stocks

• High-Volume Gainers
• High-Volume Losers

*5-Day Change

Stocks Slightly Higher into Final Hour on Short-Covering, Bargain-Hunting, Healthcare Sector Strength

Today's Market Take:

Broad Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Slightly Higher
  
• Sector Performance: Mixed
• Volume: Below Average
• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line

Equity Investor Angst:

• VIX 18.35 -.97%
• ISE Sentiment Index 101.0 +44.3%
• Total Put/Call 1.15 +2.68%
• NYSE Arms .77 -52.82%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 106.90 bps +2.32%
• European Financial Sector CDS Index 179.03 bps +2.16%
• Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 113.39 bps +.71%
• Emerging Market CDS Index 239.98 bps +2.28%
• 2-Year Swap Spread 11.75 +.25 basis point
• TED Spread 21.75 -.5 basis point
• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -26.75 -1.0 basis point

Economic Gauges:

• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .09% unch.
• Yield Curve 135.0 -1 basis point
• China Import Iron Ore Spot $122.10/Metric Tonne +.58%
• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 60.70 +1.1 points
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.43 -3 basis points
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei Futures: Indicating -23 open in Japan
• DAX Futures: Indicating -17 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my tech, biotech and medical sector longs
• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
• Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:

• French Recession Looms as Industrial Production Slumps. French industrial production slumped and confidence among factory executives held near the lowest in almost three years, prompting the Bank of France to indicate that Europe’s second-largest economy may be tipping into recession. Production fell 2.7 percent in September from August, Paris-based statistics office Insee said today. That’s the biggest drop since January 2009 and more than the 1 percent decline forecast by economists in a Bloomberg News survey. With sentiment among manufacturing executives unchanged at 92 in October, the Bank of France said the economy may shrink in the fourth quarter. Previous surveys suggest it also contracted in the third. “The latest French industrial data makes for particularly grim reading,” said Nicholas Spiro, managing director of Spiro Sovereign Strategy in London. “The problem in France is the perennial lack of growth.” 
• EU Said to Tide Greece Past Bill Redemption as Aid Talks Drag On. European governments will find a way of tiding Greece past next week’s bill redemption as the pieces of an updated aid package take longer than planned to fall into place, a European official said. While finance ministers on Nov. 12 are unlikely to sign off on 31.5 billion euros ($40 billion) of fresh loans, the result won’t be an “accidental default” for Greece when 5 billion euros of bills mature on Nov. 16, the official told reporters in Brussels today on condition of anonymity. 
• Soros Says Euro Crisis Threatening Europe’s Cohesion, EU Ideals. Billionaire investor George Soros said the euro zone’s debt crisis is harming the forces that have held the currency bloc together as well as the vision that led to the creation of the European Union. “The euro crisis is threatening Europe’s cohesion and the ideals behind the European Union,” Soros said at the Martti Ahtisaari Day seminar in Helsinki today. “The attractive idea of equal states being devoted to common goals is threatened, as there is a division between countries. Investors and creditors are in charge,” he said.
• Most European Stocks Drop Amid Concern on U.S. Economy. Most European stocks fell, with the Stoxx Europe 600 Index posting its biggest weekly drop in a month, amid concern that automatic spending cuts and tax increases may push the world’s largest economy into a recession. Credit Agricole sank 5.9 percent after posting a wider third-quarter loss than analysts had estimated.
• Muni Yields Plunge to 1967 Low as Obama’s Tax Plans Stoke Demand. U.S. municipal-bond yields dropped to the lowest in more than four decades as President Barack Obama’s re-election fueled speculation that income-tax rates will increase, boosting the appeal of tax-free debt. The interest rate on 20-year general-obligation bonds fell 0.12 percentage point to 3.55 percent in the week ended Nov. 8, according to a Bond Buyer index. That beats this year’s previous low of 3.6 percent and is the lowest since April 1967, when Lyndon B. Johnson was president. 
• Consumer Sentiment in U.S. Increases More Than Forecast. The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan preliminary consumer sentiment index rose to 84.9, the fourth straight increase and the highest since July 2007, from 82.6 in October. Economists projected an initial reading of 82.9 for November, according to the median estimate of 71 economists surveyed by Bloomberg. 
• Fed to Give Failing Stress Test Banks Second Chance. The Federal Reserve will give the 19 largest banks a preliminary result of its capital stress test, offering institutions that fail a chance to adjust their dividend and stock buyback policies. The change comes after Citigroup Inc. and SunTrust Banks Inc. (STI) narrowly missed meeting the 5 percent tier one common equity to risk-weighted assets minimum capital ratio in the 2012 test at 4.9 percent and 4.8 percent respectively. Ally Financial Inc. (ALLY) had a stressed ratio of 2.5 percent in the last test. 
• Google(GOOG) Sees China-Traffic Drop, Web Monitor Cites Block. Google Inc. (GOOG) is reporting an unusual drop in traffic to its sites in China, and an Internet monitor said the search engine’s services are being blocked in the world’s most populous nation.

Wall Street Journal:

• Live: Fiscal Cliff Stream.

MarketWatch.com:

• Senate Democratic wins may thwart ‘grand bargain’. 
• Fiscal cliff talks to start next week. Boehner and Obama both dig-in and talk compromise.

CNBC: 

• Greece Says Cash Reserves Almost Depleted. 
• Most Affordable US Cities.

Zero Hedge: 

• Do We Have What It Takes To Get From Here To There? Part 2: China. 
• Is Micro Weakness Smelling Macro Trouble?
• USA As Seen By Europe: The Next Greece?

Business Insider:

• The CBO's Report On The Fiscal Cliff Makes Clear We're Heading For A 'Can Kick'. 
• Angela Merkel Wants To Mold A New EU Based On Her 'Domestic Policy'. 
• IT'S OFFICIAL: Chris Christie's Favorability Takes A Dive Among GOP After Hurricane Sandy. 
• Things Have Gotten So Bad At JCPenney(JCP) That Analysts Are Now Talking About A Cash Crisis. 
• CHART OF THE DAY: US Crude Production Is Heading To A 20-Year High. 
• CIA DIRECTOR DAVID PETRAEUS RESIGNS — Extramarital Affair Cited In Letter.  

Reuters: 

• John Henry to shutter commodity trading firm at year-end.
• Copper hits 2-month low on U.S. fiscal, euro zone concern.

Telegraph: 

• German risks rift with France over economic healthcheck demands. Germany's finance minister has reportedly asked a panel of top advisers to examine France's economic problems amid concerns that weaknesses could spread to the rest of Europe.
• The Bank of England has just crossed the line into straight government financing.
  

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth +.71%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Gaming +1.73% 2) Biotech +1.70% 3) Coal +1.45%
  

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• AAPL, CRAY, BRKS, EGHT, MXWL, HK, IOC, HAFC, UCBI, KYAK, ACIW, ENR, LGF, FLT, IGT, UBNT, AFFY, COV, WPRT, PHH, THRX, PODD, EBIX, AL, WWWW, GHDX and VVUS

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) NIHD 2) ADSK 3) JCP 4) DIS 5) MET
  

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) IGT 2) SWKS 3) BA 4) CAT 5) INTC

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume 
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume