Friday, February 08, 2013

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:
  • Europe Leaders Bow to Cameron Push, Deepen Spending Cuts. European Union leaders agreed to a seven-year budget that cuts spending for the first time, bowing to U.K. Prime Minister David Cameron’s insistence on thrift. The deal, struck after 25 1/2 hours of talks in Brussels, set the budget for 2014-2020 at 960 billion euros ($1.3 trillion), down from an original proposal of 1.047 trillion euros and less than the 994 billion euros spent in the current budget cycle. “We simply could not ignore the extremely difficult economic realities across Europe,” EU PresidentHerman Van Rompuy told reporters. “It’s perhaps nobody’s perfect budget, but there’s a lot of it for everybody. This budget is future- oriented, it is realistic and it is driven by pressing concerns.” 
  • European Stocks Post Weekly Drop on Debt-Crisis Concern. European stocks posted a second weekly decline as political uncertainty in Italy and Spain revived concern that the nations’ austerity programs may falter and the euro-area debt crisis may deepen. UniCredit SpA, Italy’s biggest lender, dropped 5.4 percent as a gauge of European bank shares fell for a second week. Royal Imtech NV plunged 47 percent as the Dutch technical-service provider after predicting writedowns exceeding 100 million euros ($136 million) in Poland. Hargreaves Lansdown Plc jumped 15 percent after the retail stockbroker posted first-half profit that exceeded analysts’ estimates.
  • Aso Says Pace of Yen Decline Too Fast With G-20 Set to Meet.Japanese Finance Minister Taro Aso said the pace of the yen’s weakening has been too fast, speaking a week before a meeting of global finance chiefs where Japan’s currency stance is forecast to be an issue. Aso’s comment to reporters in Tokyo today came after he earlier told lawmakers the government hadn’t anticipated a rapid move to around 90 per dollar
  • Honda Counters Weak Yen Criticism After U.S. Objections. Honda Motor Co., targeting record U.S. sales this year, said the weaker yen isn’t giving the Japanese company an advantage after a group representing U.S. automakers called for government intervention.
  • Huntsman Warns of Risk of China-Japan Clashes in Disputed Areas. Jon Huntsman, a former U.S. ambassador to China, said he worries about the danger that a military “incident” between China and Japan may escalate into an unintended conflict. “The tensions are real,” he said, citing their territorial dispute over islands in the East China Sea. The increasing pace of military activities such as surveillance flights in the region by other nations, including South Korea and Russia, also raise risks, he said. “I worry about the military maneuvers in crowded airspaces and sea lanes” where an incident can escalate to something “beyond anyone’s ability to then de-escalate it,” Huntsman said in an interview on Bloomberg Television’s “Political Capital with Al Hunt” airing this weekend.
  • Egyptians Rally as Tunisia Opposition Leader Death Stirs Unrest. Egypt’s army put up barbed wire and surrounded the gates of the Presidential Palace in Cairo as protesters pelted government buildings with rocks during rallies against President Mohamed Mursi and his Muslim Brotherhood. Protesters in Cairo marched from the Mostafa Mahmoud Mosque to Tahrir Square, and from the Nour Mosque to the palace today. Demonstrators blocked the subway in the city at Sadat station in the direction of the southern Helwan suburb, state-run Ahram Gate said on its website.
  • The price-earnings ratio for the S&P 500 has risen 25% to 14.9 since October 2011.
  • McDonald’s(MCD) January Store Sales Drop in Asia U.S Gains. McDonald’s Corp., the world’s largest restaurant chain, posted a surprise gain in U.S. same-store sales last month while demand slumped in the Asia Pacific region. Sales in the U.S. increased 0.9 percent in January, the Oak Brook, Illinois-based company said today in a statement. Analysts projected a drop of 0.3 percent, the average of 14 estimates compiled by Consensus Metrix. Sales in Asia Pacific, the Middle East and Africa plunged 9.5 percent while analysts anticipated a decline of 5.8 percent.
Wall Street Journal:
  • Germany, Italy Data Show Divergence. Record German export statistics released Friday contrast sharply with Italy's feeble industrial performance, highlighting the two countries' economic divergence at a time when a strengthening euro is threatening to hurt foreign trade. Italian industrial production hit a 22-year low last year, as output dropped 6.7% from 2011, Italy's statistics institute Istat said Friday, as the economy remains mired in recession. "This was a year of suffering for Italian industry," Istat said.
CNBC:
  • Subprime Is Back: Will This End Badly? The subprime market for risky mortgage backed securities is hot again and its revival is exceeding many people's expectations, the chief market strategist at Rosenblatt Securities said. However, he expects it will end badly. "The subprime market's revival is proving to be even stronger than we had anticipated," Brian Reynolds said, in a research note. "This is just a credit cycle, and it will eventually end badly like the others." Rosenblatt Securities has been worried before. It showed outrage when General Motors bought AmeriCredit car loans firm in 2010. The deal repeated the excesses of the last credit cycle, it said at the time, when GM had to hive off its financial subsidiaries which then needed taxpayers' money to survive. And it has noticed another huge development this week. The Wall Street Journal reported that a joint venture between AIG and Fortress will be issuing a securitization of personal loans. "The average coupon on some of these loans is 25 percent, as some of them have no collateral. The A-rated tranche is expected to yield a whopping (for this environment) 2.5 percent, and we're pretty sure the enhanced cash and cash-plus pseudo-money market funds will gobble this up." This search for yield has angered Reynolds, who thought he would never see subprime personal loans again. He said the situation was now reminiscent of the structured finance boom that began in 1994. "We're tempted to go check the attic to see if we have some old Beanie Babies that we could securitize," he said.
Reuters: 
  • U.S. Treasury in no rush to exit Ally Financial stake -source. The U.S. Treasury, under pressure to quickly wind down its crisis-era bailouts, believes it will take time to shed auto lender Ally Financial because the company's mortgage lending unit is in a messy bankruptcy, a person familiar with the matter told Reuters. Ally is one of Treasury's largest remaining holdings, but the lender will be hard to exit as long as it is working through the bankruptcy of its Residential Capital unit and is also selling its international operations, the person said.
  • Canada hit with surprise jobs loss, weak housing starts. Canada's economy unexpectedly shed jobs in January, while housing starts plunged, suggesting global uncertainty, weak prices for Canadian oil, and a government clampdown on the property market will drag on growth in early 2013.
AP: 
  • Iraq bombs kill 36, Sunnis stage protest rallies. Car bombs struck two outdoor markets and a group of taxi vans in Shiite areas across Iraq on Friday, killing at least 36 people and wounding nearly 100 in the bloodiest day in more than two months, as minority Sunnis staged large anti-government protests.

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:
  • Large-Cap Value +.12%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Education -1.1% 2) Gold & Silver -.63% 3) Construction -.60%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:
  • SKUL, TVL, SD, HK, NUAN, CXW, RVBD, WHZ, MCO, CSTR, CTRX, VSAT, NSP, RSG, KEYW, INTU, VPFG, TSRA, LBTYK, HTWR, VECO, IVC, EFX, TCK, PTP, BR, LH, SSD, MHP and VPFG
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) NUAN 2) CCL 3) XLP 4) TGT 5) LNKD
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) TCK 2) ETR 3) LPL 4) RL 5) BAC
Charts:

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:
  • Large-Cap Growth +.73%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) HMOs +2.06% 2) Gaming +1.47% 3) Internet +.95%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • CXO, CZR, ATVI, LNKD, FLT, MOH, AOL, MCHP, TWI, ACM, SNCR, WWWW, MOH, RKUS, MDR, ACM, GES, NTI and NCR
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) ATVI 2) BYD 3) GRA 4) NUAN 5) MCO
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) MCHP 2) AAP 3) ATVI 4) AOL 5) RVBD
Charts:

Friday Watch

Evening Headlines 
Bloomberg: 
  • Bemoaning Euro Strength Masks Hollande Export Woes: Euro Credit. President Francois Hollande's call for a weaker euro masks France's real issue: a loss of competitiveness against countries that share the currency. With French labor costs up about 19% in a decade and Germany's almost unchanged, France's share of euro-area exports dropped by 3.5%, more than any country in the region, according to a study published earlier this year by research group Coe-Rexecode in Paris. "France is losing the competitiveness war not just to the dollar-Asia block but also to peripheral Europe, Spain in particular," said Lena Komileva, a strategist at G+ Economics Ltd. in London. 
  • Italian Vote Seen Inconclusive as Risk of Second Election Grows. Italy’s election in three weeks may yield a hung parliament, requiring a follow-up vote to establish a governing majority, a member of poll leader Pier Luigi Bersani’s campaign said for the first time. “Returning to polls is the answer in a situation of ungovernability,” Stefano Fassina, Bersani’s head of economic policy, wrote on Twitter yesterday. Bersani’s lead in opinion polls is shrinking as former Premier Silvio Berlusconi gains. The difference between their two blocs nationally was within the 4 percentage point margin of error for a second day, according to a Tecne poll aired by SkyTG24 yesterday. The gap fell to less than 5 percentage points in six key regions that will determine the outcome in the Senate, Tecne said.
  • Draghi Finds Powerful Weapon in Words as Markets Heed His Voice. European Central Bank President Mario Draghi has found his most effective weapon is the sound of his own voice. Draghi yesterday caused the euro’s biggest drop in seven months by suggesting its recent appreciation could damp inflation, a signal that further interest-rate cuts remain a possibility. His pledge in July to buy government bonds precipitated a sea-change in sentiment that helped to shore up the 17-nation euro area economy, yet the ECB hasn’t spent a cent so far in its so-called Outright Monetary Transactions program. 
  • RBA Cuts GDP, Inflation Outlook on Currency, Investment. The Reserve Bank of Australia reduced its economic growth and inflation forecasts as investment outside the mining industry remains elusive, the labor market softens and a high local currency contains prices. “The soft outlook over the next year or so reflects a number of factors,” the RBA said in its quarterly monetary policy statement released in Sydney today. “Mining investment is expected to peak, both fiscal consolidation and the persistently high level of the Australian dollar will weigh on growth, and there is little sign of a near-term pick-up in non- mining business investment.” 
  • Japan Posts Back-to-Back Current-Account Deficit in December. Japan posted back-to-back monthly current-account deficits for the first time since 1981, highlighting challenges for Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s campaign to revive the economy. The shortfall in the widest measure of the nation’s trade was 264.1 billion yen ($2.8 billion) in December, the Ministry of Finance said in Tokyo today. The median estimate of 23 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News was for a deficit of 144.2 billion yen. The last consecutive monthly current-account deficit was in February 1981, according to the ministry. Exports to China in 2012 fell 10.8 percent from 2011, as slower Chinese growth and a territorial dispute affected a merchandise trade relationship worth 26.5 trillion yen in 2012, according to ministry data.
  • Malaysia December Exports Unexpectedly Fall, Output Growth Slows. Malaysia’s exports unexpectedly dropped in December amid fewer shipments to the U.S. and China, while industrial production rose less than economists estimated. Overseas shipments fell 5.8 percent from a year earlier after rising a revised 2.3 percent in November, the Trade Ministry said today. The median of 17 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey was for a 1.4 percent increase.
  • BRICs Fall From Google(GOOG) Favor as Searches Drop With Brazil. The BRICs are falling off the investment map. The term for Brazil, Russia, India and China, where stocks gained 424 percent during the decade ended 2010, appeared in the fewest news stories last month since November 2008, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. BRIC searches on Google Inc.’s website fell to a seven-year low in December, while mutual funds that invest in the biggest emerging markets had outflows in 46 of the past 47 weeks.
  • Zinc Leads Metals Slump as Europe Crisis Fuels Demand Concerns. Zinc fell to the lowest price this week, leading a slump for industrial metals, on renewed concern that Europe’s debt crisis is worsening and will curb demand. Industrial output in Spain dropped for a 16th month in December, a report showed today. European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said risks to the region’s economy remain on the “downside.” The dollar rose against a basket of six currencies including the euro, reducing the appeal of metals as alternative assets. Financial markets in China, the world’s biggest metals user, will be shut next week for Lunar New Year celebrations.
Wall Street Journal:
  • Probe Adds to Rating Firms' Woes. New York's top prosecutor has launched a probe into the conduct of the three major credit-ratings firms, according to a person familiar with the matter, opening another legal front for an industry that remains in the cross hairs of state and federal investigators. New York Attorney General Eric Schneiderman this week subpoenaed Standard & Poor's Ratings Services and formally requested information from Moody's Investors Service and Fitch Ratings to examine ratings they issued in the run-up to the financial crisis, the person said. His office is investigating the ratings the three firms issued on mortgage-backed deals before the crisis, the person said.
  • Rate-Rig Spotlight Falls on 'Rain Man'. Many anonymous traders are implicated in the tall stack of documents regulators published this week detailing Royal Bank of Scotland Group attempts to rig the lending benchmark known as Libor. But only one trader is cited by name: a 33-year-old so brainy yet socially awkward that colleagues nicknamed him "Rain Man."
  • Obama Blocked Rebel Arms. White House Opposed Pentagon, CIA, State Plan to Ship Weapons to Syrian Resistance. A proposal to arm Syrian rebels was backed by the Pentagon, the State Department and the Central Intelligence Agency, but the White House decided not to act on the plan. Defense Secretary Leon Panetta and Gen. Martin Dempsey, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, revealed publicly for the first time at a Senate hearing on Thursday that they supported the proposal last year by senior officials including then-Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and then-CIA director David Petraeus.
  • Iran Leader Rebuffs Direct Talks With U.S. Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei rejected a U.S. proposal for one-on-one talks, dimming hopes that the two countries would resume diplomatic relations soon. Mr. Khamenei, who has the final decision on key state matters, was responding for the first time to an offer Vice President Joe Biden made last week to hold one-on-one talks with Iran whenever Mr. Khamenei was ready.
  • Scant Pickup in Economic Growth Seen for 2013. Economists are forecasting the same steady, if unspectacular, growth this year that they were expecting in 2012. Last year's predictions proved too optimistic, but they say this year the economic fundamentals are sturdier. At the start of last year, economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal were on average predicting 2.4% year-over-year growth in gross domestic product for 2012. The Commerce Department last week said the expansion was a more tepid 1.5%. It was the second year in a row that actual GDP came in below economists' forecasts. For 2013, the economists again expect the economy to grow 2.4%.
  • The Real Problem With Obama's Drone Memo. The U.S. has dropped the clarity of the rules of war for the vague balancing tests that govern cops on the beat. President Obama's antiterrorism policies are drawing new fire after this week's leak of the administration's legal memo defending the targeted killing of Americans. According to the Justice Department white paper obtained by NBC News, the U.S. can kill a citizen who is "continually planning attacks" for al Qaeda when an "informed, high-ranking" official decides that the target "poses an imminent threat" and capture is "infeasible."
Barron's: 
CNBC: 
  • Banks Need to Reduce Risk: Krawchek. (video) It's high time to talk about reducing risk in the banks, former Bank of America Wealth Management President Sallie Krawcheck said Thursday on CNBC. On "Fast Money," she said that it was "probably pretty unlikely" that any of the too-big-to-fail financial institutions would be broken up. "Heck, we couldn't even do money fund reform, which is pretty clear we need, given the risk there," she said. Krawcheck said that the problem was not being addressed. "What we do really need to have a discussion of – and we're not, as a country – is reducing the risks in the banks. Is the risk wrung out to good enough degree? Is there enough capital?" she said. "That's not a discussion we're having head-on right now."
  • Just How Skewed Is China's Trade Data? China's January trade data on Friday appear impressive at first glance, but beneath the favorable Lunar New Year distortions, the global and domestic demand picture remains fragile, economists tell CNBC. "The import data suggests that underlying demand domestically is not as strong as we think," Liu Li-gang, chief China economist at ANZ told CNBC
Zero Hedge: 
Business Insider: 
NY Times:
  • Business and Labor Unite to Try to Alter Immigration Laws. After decades of friction over immigration, the nation’s labor unions and the leading business association, the Chamber of Commerce, have formed an unusual alliance that is pushing hard to revamp American immigration laws. 
  • Hewlett(HPQ). Directs Its Suppliers in China to Limit Student Labor. Hewlett-Packard, one of the world’s largest makers of computers and other electronics, is imposing new limits on the employment of students and temporary agency workers at factories across China. The move, following recent efforts by Apple to increase scrutiny of student workers, reflects a significant shift in how electronics companies view problematic labor practices in China.
The Blaze:
Reuters: 
  • Justice Department, states weigh action against Moody's(MCO). The Justice Department and multiple states are discussing also suing Moody's Corp for defrauding investors, according to people familiar with the matter, but any such move will likely wait until a similar lawsuit against rival Standard and Poor's is tested in the courts. Inquiries into Moody's are in the early stages, largely because state and federal authorities have dedicated more resources to the S&P lawsuit, said the sources, who were not authorized to speak publicly about enforcement discussions.
  • Exclusive: Dell(DELL) shareholder Southeastern unhappy with buyout. Dell Inc's largest independent shareholder, Southeastern Asset Management Inc, has told the computer maker that a $24.4 billion buyout bid undervalues it, adding to a chorus of investor dissatisfaction with the landmark deal to take it private, two sources close to the situation said. Southeastern has privately told the company that it is "disturbed" by a $13.65 per share offer for the third-largest PC maker by a consortium led by founder and CEO Michael Dell, and instead believes Dell is worth $20 per share, the sources said on Thursday.
  • FED FOCUS-When time's ripe, Fed officials see tapering bond buying. The U.S. Federal Reserve should scale back rather than abruptly end its massive bond-buying stimulus once the labor market gets its legs, a growing number of Fed policymakers say. Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Charles Evans, one of the central bank's most aggressive doves, became the latest top Fed official to publicly embrace such a strategy.  
Evening Recommendations 
  • None of note
Night Trading
  • Asian equity indices are -.50%  to +.75% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 115.50 +.5 basis point.
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 88.5 -.25 basis point.
  • FTSE-100 futures +.37%.
  • S&P 500 futures +.13%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.18%.
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note

Company/Estimate
  • (AXL)/.15
  • (BLC)/.35
  • (CBOE)/.42
  • (ETR)/1.71
  • (LH)/1.62
  • (LPX)/.21
  • (MCO)/.69
  • (CCJ)/.43
Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
  • The Trade Deficit for December is estimated at -$46.0B versus -$48.7B in November.
  • Wholesale Inventories for December are estimated to rise +.4% versus a +.6% gain in November.
Upcoming Splits
  • None of ntoe
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Fed's Kocherlakota speaking, China inflation/trade data, Eurozone Trade/Production/CPI data, (GLW) investor meeting, USDA crop report and the (MAT) analyst meeting could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by industrial and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Thursday, February 07, 2013

Stocks Lower into Final Hour on Rising Eurozone Debt Angst, Global Growth Fears, Technical Selling, Tech/Biotech Sector Weakness

Broad Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Declining
  • Volume: Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • VIX 13.86 +3.86%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 97.0 -16.4%
  • Total Put/Call 1.05 +8.25%
  • NYSE Arms 1.31 +55.2%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 89.88 +.28%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 158.50 +.46%
  • Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 106.67 -.11%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 232.93 -1.18%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 15.5 -.5 bp
  • TED Spread 22.5 -.25 bp
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -18.0 -1.25 bps
Economic Gauges:
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .06% unch.
  • Yield Curve 170.0 -1 bp
  • China Import Iron Ore Spot $155.10/Metric Tonne unch.
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -30.0 -.2 point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.55 unch.
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei Futures: Indicating -7 open in Japan
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +12 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Lower: On losses in my biotech/retail sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges, then covered some of them
  • Market Exposure: 50% Net Long

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg: 
  • Draghi Signals Euro Strength May Hurt ECB’s Recovery Efforts. European Central Bank President Mario Draghi signaled policy makers are concerned that the euro’s strength will hamper their efforts to pull the economy out of recession. “The exchange rate is not a policy target, but it is important for growth and price stability,” Draghi said at a press conference in Frankfurt today after the ECB kept its benchmark rate at a record low of 0.75 percent. “We want to see if the appreciation is sustained, and if it alters our assessment of the risks to price stability.” The comments pushed the currency down more than a cent against the dollar. While latest data show the 17-nation euro economy is starting to stabilize after the sovereign debt crisis drove it into recession last year, the euro’s gains could stymie a recovery before it has begun by curbing exports and pushing inflation too low. Draghi noted that the ECB will publish new economic projections next month and stressed that officials will “maintain our accommodative monetary stance.” “This was a verbal intervention,” said Joerg Kraemer, chief economist at Commerzbank AG in Frankfurt. “Draghi reinforced multiple times that the ECB will keep up its accommodative policy stance and he indirectly suggested that the ECB may revise its inflation projections downward next month.
  • Spain Borrowing Costs Rise Amid Corruption Allegations. Spain’s borrowing costs rose even as it beat its maximum target of 4.5 billion euros ($6.11 billion) at a debt sale today as corruption allegations targeting the government threaten to reverse last month’s rally. The Madrid-based Treasury sold a total of 4.61 billion euros of debt, including a 2.75 percent 2015 note with a yield of 2.823 percent, compared with 2.476 percent the last time it was sold on Jan. 10. A 2018 note yielded 4.123 percent, up from 3.770 percent on Jan. 17, and it sold a 2029 bond at 5.787 percent, compared with 5.555 percent at its last 15-year benchmark bond sale on Jan. 10.
  • Euro Falls Most Since July as Draghi Warns of Slowing Inflation. The euro fell the most since July against the dollar after European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said the recent strength of the currency creates a concern that inflation will slow. The 17-nation euro declined versus all but two of 16 major counterparts as Draghi said after a policy meeting in Frankfurt that the risk to the region’s growth remains on the “downside.”
  • Leverage Comeback in Stocks Seen as Sentiment Improves: EcoPulse. Shares of companies with high operating or financial leverage are outperforming the market, as investor sentiment about the economy improves. Two portfolio indexes of such stocks maintained by Goldman Sachs Group Inc. have outpaced the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index since October, a sign that riskier investment strategies are gaining favor. As the expansion strengthens, companies with higher fixed cost structures or weaker balance sheets are “more likely to benefit from that recovery,” said Tim Ghriskey, who oversees about $2 billion as chief investment officer of Solaris Group LLC, based in Bedford Hills, New York.
  • India Predicts Growth at Decade Low as Investment Slows. India forecast the weakest economic growth in a decade as subdued investment and elevated inflation add pressure on Prime Minister Manmohan Singh to extend policy changes and revive his development agenda.
  • Brazil’s Prices Rise at Fastest Pace in Almost Eight Years. Brazilian consumer prices rose in January at the fastest pace since April 2005, raising pressure on the central bank, which has said it will keep interest rates at a record low for a prolonged period. Swap rates rose. Prices as measured by the benchmark IPCA index climbed 0.86 percent in the month, marking the fifth-straight acceleration, the national statistics agency said today in Rio de Janeiro. Annual inflation accelerated to 6.15 percent from 5.84 percent the previous month.
  • Worker Productivity in U.S. Declines, Pushing Up Labor Costs. The productivity of U.S. workers fell more than projected in the fourth quarter as the economy shrank, pushing labor expenses up and showing companies are approaching the limit of how much efficiency they can wring from employees. The measure of employee output per hour decreased at a 2 percent annual rate, the worst performance in almost two years, after a 3.2 percent gain in the prior three months, a Labor Department report showed today in Washington. The median forecast in a Bloomberg survey of 63 economists called for a 1.4 percent drop. Expenses per worker increased at a 4.5 percent rate, more than estimated.
  • Fed’s Evans Says QE Could Stop Before Drop to 7% Jobless. Charles Evans, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, said today the central bank may stop its asset-purchase program before unemployment falls to 7 percent. “I tend to think it might be possible to turn off the quantitative easing,” Evans said in a CNBC interview. “We might be able to stop before 7 percent” assuming momentum builds and keeps going.
  • Einhorn: What Tim Cook Should Do With Apple Cash. (video) 
  • Obama Administration to Stay Course on Biofuel Law, Vilsack Says. President Barack Obama’s administration won’t abandon the nation’s ethanol program and will encourage Congress to maintain it, Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack said. The Renewable Fuels Standard, passed in 2007, requires the U.S. to use 13.8 billion gallons of renewable fuels such as ethanol this year and 15 billion gallons by 2015. The Agriculture Department estimated this month that 42 percent of this year’s corn crop will go toward making the fuel. Last summer, lawmakers from both parties called for a temporary suspension or reduction of the ethanol program as a drought drove up corn prices. The Environmental Protection Agency declined the requests.
Wall Street Journal:
  • Italian Bank Was Aided by Covert Loan. Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, the 541-year-old Italian bank at the center of a burgeoning financial scandal, was so strapped for cash in late 2011 that it negotiated a covert loan of nearly €2 billion ($2.7 billion) from the Bank of Italy even as executives were publicly describing the lender's funding position as comfortable, according to the Bank of Italy and people familiar with the deal.
  • Live Blog: Brennan’s CIA Confirmation Hearing at 2:30 p.m.
  • Fed’s Stein: Signs of Overheating in Credit Markets. A top Federal Reserve official in a speech Thursday said he sees some signs that credit markets may be overheating, although he said there is not an imminent threat to the wider financial system. Federal Reserve Board governor Jeremy Stein highlighted developments in several markets, including junk bonds, mortgage real-estate investment trusts and commercial banks’ securities holdings, as areas where potentially troubling trends are emerging as a result of the Fed’s easy-money policies. Mr. Stein made his remarks at a symposium at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
Fox News:
  • Supermarkets cry foul as FDA proposes new food labeling rule under ObamaCare. If the Food and Drug Administration gets its way, your trip to the grocery store could get a tad pricier.
    Supermarket owners argue a pending federal food-labeling rule that stems from the new health care law would overburden thousands of grocers and convenience store owners -- to the tune of $1 billion in the first year alone.
Reuters:
Telegraph: 
Xinhua:
  • China Bans 'Pompous Speeches' at Advisory-Body Meeting. The Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference to adopt reasonable schedule, print fewer documents, simplify conference hall, reception arrangements, citing rules issued by CPPCC's general office. Delegates are told to speak "honestly and briefly" on own concrete opinions and suggestions, not follow scripts. A no-banquet policy is in effect.