BETWEEN THE HEDGES

Friday, October 16, 2015

Weekly Scoreboard*

Posted by Gary .....at 6:50 PM

Indices

S&P 500 2,033.11 +.90%

DJIA 17,215.97 +.77%

NASDAQ 4,886.68 +1.16%

Russell 2000 1,162.31 -.26%

S&P 500 High Beta 30.98 -.83%

Goldman 50 Most Shorted 114.79 -3.0%

Wilshire 5000 21,104.17 +.78%

Russell 1000 Growth 985.16 +.79%

Russell 1000 Value 976.89 +.74%

S&P 500 Consumer Staples 510.15 +.40%

Solactive US Cyclical 123.87 -.78%

Morgan Stanley Technology 1,061.14 +.36%

Transports 8,078.61 -2.11%

Utilities 596.98 +2.34%

Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 105.37 -.55%

MSCI Emerging Markets 35.83 +.12%

HFRX Equity Hedge 1,151.98 -.42%

HFRX Equity Market Neutral 1,022.51 -.51%

Sentiment/Internals

NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 232,595 +.21%

Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index -105 -66

Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 20.5 -47.4%

CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 264,992 +2.61%

CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,645,951 -1.77%

Total Put/Call .81 -5.81%

OEX Put/Call .41 -90.85%

ISE Sentiment 88.0 -7.53%

NYSE Arms 1.17 +60.0%

Volatility(VIX) 15.52 -10.9%

S&P 500 Implied Correlation 62.35 +5.41%

G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 9.21 +.11%

Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 11.0 -3.17%

Smart Money Flow Index 17,551.63 -.02%

ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $2.698 Trillion +.35%

ICI US Equity Weekly Net New Cash Flow -$1.312 Billion

AAII % Bulls 34.1 -9.2%

AAII % Bears 27.1 -3.7%

Futures Spot Prices

CRB Index 199.45 -.92%

Crude Oil 47.30 -4.44%

Reformulated Gasoline 133.22 -5.79%

Natural Gas 2.43 -3.65%

Heating Oil 149.69 -5.63%

Gold 1,180.10 +2.12%

Bloomberg Base Metals Index 150.11 -1.79%

Copper 240.35 -.68%

US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 189.67 USD/Ton -4.69%

China Iron Ore Spot 53.74 USD/Ton -4.05%

Lumber 258.1 +6.48%

UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,067.55 -.34%

Economy

ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate -2.2% -110.0 basis points

Philly Fed ADS Real-Time Business Conditions Index -.0890 n/a

S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 125.55 -.14%

Citi US Economic Surprise Index -14.80 +11.5 points

Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 6.1 -2.9 points

Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -16.7 +2.2 points

Fed Fund Futures imply 94.0% chance of no change, 6.0% chance of 25 basis point hike on 10/28
# of Months to 1st Fed Rate Hike(Morgan Stanley) 6.89 +22.8%

US Dollar Index 94.63 -.35%

Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 141.75 -.57%

Yield Curve 142.0 -3.0 basis points

10-Year US Treasury Yield 2.03% -6.0 basis points

Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $4.466 Trillion +.41%

U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 17.50 -7.89%

Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 258.0 -.78%

Western Europe Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 21.25 +1.55%

Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 74.59 -6.01%

Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt CDS Index 164.80 -4.23%

Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 65.73 -1.15%

Iraq Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 783.62 -2.37%

Russia Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 289.25 -8.55%

iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporates High Yield Index 121.51 +.78%

10-Year TIPS Spread 1.49% -4.0 basis points

TED Spread 32.25 +.5 basis point

2-Year Swap Spread 12.0 -.5 basis point

3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -23.75 -.5 basis point

N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 81.88 +1.04%

America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 1,050.0 +3.95%

European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 78.57 -2.92%

Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 327.82 -.64%

CMBS AAA Super Senior 10-Year Treasury Spread to Swaps 125.0 -1.5 basis points

M1 Money Supply $3.080 Trillion +.83%

Commercial Paper Outstanding 1,048.40 +.40%

4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 265,000 -2,500

Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.6% unch.

Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate 3.82% +6.0 basis points

Weekly Mortgage Applications 387.0 -27.56%

Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 45.20 +.4 point

Weekly Retail Sales +1.10% unch.

Nationwide Gas $2.28/gallon -.04/gallon

Baltic Dry Index 766.0 -5.31%

China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 764.84 -2.29%

Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 47.50 -9.52%

Rail Freight Carloads 275,160 -2.43%

Best Performing Style

Large-Cap Growth +.5%

Worst Performing Style

Small-Cap Value -.5%

Leading Sectors

Semis +3.3%

Gaming +2.9%

Utilities +2.2%

I-Banks +2.1%

Drugs +2.0%

Lagging Sectors

Hospitals -3.5%

Disk Drives -3.6%

Oil Service -4.4%

Road & Rail -4.6%

Coal -5.2%

Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (8)

FPRX, WPP, LTRPA, TRIP, NBBC, SWI, FCS and MXIM

Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (15)

AMSG, HAWK, BCOR, WMT, VMW, VAC, BOFI, HTWR, TWOU, SMCI, ETSY, CPHD, LDRH, IMPR and ZFGN

Weekly Charts

ETFs

High-Volume Gainers

High-Volume Losers

Stocks

High-Volume Gainers

High-Volume Losers

*5-Day Change

Stocks Slightly Higher into Final Hour on Central Bank Hopes, Buyout Speculation, Oil Bounce, Healthcare/REIT Sector Strength

Posted by Gary .....at 2:54 PM

Broad Equity Market Tone:

Advance/Decline Line: Lower

Sector Performance: Mixed

Volume: Below Average

Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming

Equity Investor Angst:

Volatility(VIX) 16.32 +1.68%

Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 141.95 +.46%

Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 11.0 -.09%

S&P 500 Implied Correlation 63.60 +3.70%

ISE Sentiment Index 88.0 +11.39%

Total Put/Call .83 -24.55%

NYSE Arms 1.17 +1.19 +29.88%

Credit Investor Angst:

North American Investment Grade CDS Index 82.43 -.80%

America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 1,048.0 +.29%

European Financial Sector CDS Index 77.75 -2.05%

Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 21.24 -1.69%

Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 74.58 -1.01%

Emerging Market CDS Index 327.82 -.37%

iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporates High Yield Index 121.51 +.22%

2-Year Swap Spread 12.0 +.25 basis point

TED Spread 32.25 -.25 basis point

3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -23.5 -1.25 basis points

Economic Gauges:

Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 73.39 -.29%
3-Month T-Bill Yield -.01% -1.0 basis point

Yield Curve 142.0 -1.0 basis point

China Import Iron Ore Spot $53.74/Metric Tonne n/a

Citi US Economic Surprise Index -14.80 +3.7 points

Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 6.1 +.1 point

Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -16.70 +.4 point

10-Year TIPS Spread 1.49 -2.0 basis points
# of Months to 1st Fed Rate Hike(Morgan Stanley) 6.89 -.68

Overseas Futures:

Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +68 open in Japan
China A50 Futures: Indicating +110 open in China

DAX Futures: Indicating -8 open in Germany

Portfolio:

Slightly Higher: On gains in my retail/medical sector longs

Disclosed Trades: None

Market Exposure: 50% Net Long

Today's Headlines

Posted by Gary .....at 2:16 PM

Bloomberg:

Nestle, Burberry Show How Era of Easy Growth in China Is Over. (video) Whether they sell tea or trenchcoats, consumer-goods companies can no longer count on easy business in China, where success now requires a more nimble approach. Sluggish Chinese sales hurt Nestle SA, Hugo Boss AG and Burberry Group Plc, which all reported disappointing quarterly revenue this week. With China set to disclose its slowest economic growth since 2009 next week, European companies are searching for demand via new avenues. Nestle and France’s Danone now cater to Chinese mothers who forgo locally produced baby formula and order it from abroad via Internet sites. Chinese luxury aficionados are traveling to Japan to buy TAG Heuer timepieces and Louis Vuitton handbags at better exchange rates. German retailer Metro AG has struck a deal with a local partner, picking Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. to let Chinese consumers snap up German brands of coffee and cookies over the Web. Consumer companies “need to be flexible to meet where the market is going,” said James Roy, associate principal at China Market Research Group. “The era of everybody buying the same big-name, signature items is going away.”
Will China See Its 'Minsky Moment?' (video)
China Liquidity Trap Deters Funds as Debt Trade Fraction of U.S. China’s efforts to open its $5.9 trillion onshore bond market are being hampered by secondary trading that’s less than a quarter of levels seen in the U.S., making global funds wary of being trapped in riskier bonds. While the market is the world’s third-largest, annual trading as a ratio of total outstanding debt is 1.1, compared with 4.7 in the U.S., Bloomberg calculations based on official data show. Overseas investors currently hold just 2 percent of onshore notes, with 82 percent of their money limited to sovereign and policy bank securities, according to China Central Depository & Clearing Co. Overseas investors are focusing mainly on issuers that are likely to be bailed out in the event of a crisis, and show little confidence in the ability of domestic rating companies to warn them of defaults ahead of time. Baoding Tianwei Group Co., the first state-owned company to renege on a domestic bond in April, was rated investment grade by China Lianhe Credit Rating Co. less than five months before the failure. The number of upgrades handed out by three of the largest rankers was four times that of downgrades this year, even as the economy grows at the slowest pace since 1990.
PBOC Data Suggest Capital Outflows Stayed Strong in September. Chinese financial institutions including the central bank sold a record amount of foreign exchange in September, a sign capital outflows were more severe last month than was previously thought. The offshore yuan fell to a two-week low. A gauge of their foreign-currency assets declined by the equivalent of 761.3 billion yuan ($120 billion), exceeding an August drop of 723.8 billion yuan, People’s Bank of China data showed Friday. China devalued its currency on Aug. 11 and concerns about further depreciation and slowing economic growth, coupled with the prospect of a U.S. interest-rate increase, are spurring outflows of funds.
Chinese Firms Seen Dodging Defaults in Coming Days in Turnaround. A Chinese sausage maker is set to avoid a default in a turnaround, and the authorities were said to have stepped in to help a state-owned steel trader facing a bond deadline next week. The National Development and Reform Commission will hold a meeting with investors in government-controlled Sinosteel Co.’s 2 billion yuan ($315 million) of 2017 securities who have an option to sell them back on Oct. 20., people familiar with the matter said. The NDRC will ask them not to do so, according to one of the people. Parent Sinosteel Corp. sent a letter to noteholders pleading with them to not sell the bonds back as Sinosteel would be unable to repay, the people said. “Investors may not be able to see the real credit risks in the bond market because of the aversions of defaults,” said Ji Weijie, a bond analyst at China Securities Co. in Beijing. “The NDRC’s intervention means Sinosteel may really avoid such a default. It’s reasonable for regulators to step in because the fall of a state-owned company would have an impact on employment."
Nestle Reduces Sales Outlook Amid Weakness in Chinese Market. Nestle SA said it will fall short of its long-term growth target for a third consecutive year amid weakness in China, highlighting the volatile conditions in emerging markets that continue to weigh on European consumer-product companies and retailers alike. Sales will probably rise about 4.5 percent on an organic basis in 2015, the Vevey, Switzerland-based maker of Nespresso coffee said Friday, abandoning a previous forecast of about 5 percent. Nine-month revenue advanced 4.2 percent, missing analysts’ estimates, as a recall of Maggi noodles also eroded sales in Asia. The stock made its steepest intraday decline in almost two months.
Emerging Nations Trimming $5 Trillion Debt Stokes Currency Risk. Borrowers in emerging markets have started to address a $5 trillion mountain of dollar-denominated bonds and loans, reducing their obligations for the first time in seven years in a move that threatens to cut short a budding rally in currencies from Brazil to Malaysia. Companies in developing nations paid back $38 billion of dollar debt last quarter, $3 billion more than they borrowed in the period and marking the first reduction in net issuance since 2008, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Demand for greenbacks among borrowers needing the currency to repay debt is contributing to the largest capital outflows in almost three decades. The borrowing binge, which took off in the wake of the global financial crisis as interest rates tumbled, may now be reversing as economic growth slows, commodity prices fall and lenders demand higher yields. While developing-nation currencies are rebounding from their record lows, analysts surveyed by Bloomberg expect the depreciation trend to resume as dollar debt repayments accelerate. “This is a massive event,” said Stephen Jen, the co-founder of London-based hedge fund SLJ Macro Partners LLP and a former economist at the International Monetary Fund whose bearish call on emerging markets since 2012 has proven prescient. “They want to pay down their dollar loans. We are early in the game, there’s pretty intense pressure on emerging markets.”
Lira, Ruble Traders Get Reminder of How Fast Sentiment Can Sour. In the space of a few minutes, investors in the Turkish lira and Russian ruble got a reminder about how quickly bullish sentiment can sour. As Turkey’s military said it shot down an unidentified aircraft on the Syrian border on Friday, the lira slid to a session low of 2.9106 per dollar, down 1.1 percent. Traders worried it may have been a Russian jet helped send the ruble down as much as 1.2 percent.
European Stocks Advance for Second Day, Erasing Weekly Decline. Positive sentiment in Europe’s equity market dominated for a second day on confidence that central-bank stimulus will continue to support the global economy. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index rose 0.6 percent at the close of trading in London and rallied as much as 1 percent. Health-care, insurer and bank shares climbed the most. The gauge ended the week up 0.1 percent.
Moody's Sounds Alarm on Russian Fiscal Woes Draining Buffers. The pillar of Russian creditworthiness is looking more rickety by the day to Moody’s Investors Service. “What once has been the country’s strongest asset, which was the government’s very strong financial position, is now under significant pressure,” Kristin Lindow, senior vice president at the credit-ratings company, said Wednesday in an interview in Moscow. “It doesn’t have a lot of debt, but it also is actively depleting its saving buffers, with very littleprospect in the medium term of rebuilding them.”
Unnerved Investors Pull Shutters as Capital-Market Cracks Spread. Investors around the world are running away from almost anything smacking of risk in capital markets. Sales in the U.S. junk-bond market have stalled, Chinese lenders are bracing for a new bout of defaults, and initial public offerings -- from First Data Corp. to Albertsons Cos. -- have been marred by investors uneasy about opening up their wallets. Blaming adverse conditions, Petroleo Brasileiro SA, the world’s biggest junk-rated borrower, canceled plans for its first local-currency bond sale in 15 years. The cautiousness among investors stems from worries over global growth, spurred by a slowdown in China’s economy.
Brazil Stocks Lead Weekly Losses as Goldman Sachs Sees Headwinds. Brazil’s stocks led world losses this week, missing out on a rally in emerging markets, as Goldman Sachs Group Inc. predicted Latin America’s largest economy will face more challenges. The shares swung between gains and losses on Friday after the New York-based bank said Brazil will continue to face strong headwinds from high borrowing costs, political turmoil and a drop in consumer and corporate confidence. The economy contracted more than forecast in August as policy makers keep interest rates at a nine-year high to combat above-target inflation. The benchmark equity gauge has plunged 19 percent from this year’s peak in May as President Dilma Rousseff struggles to revive an economy poised for the longest recession since the 1930s amid a widening corruption scandal.
Hillary Clinton Is Winning the Race for Wall Street’s White House Cash. Hillary Clinton has said she’d prefer to find other ways to regulate the banks besides breaking them up. Wall Street donors are showing their appreciation. The Democrat’s campaign is collecting more cash from employees of the six biggest U.S. banks than any other presidential candidate, adding more than $155,000 last quarter to more than $300,000 from earlier this year. She beat Republican rival Jeb Bush, who got at least $390,000 from the bankers over the last two quarters, even though he worked among them last decade. Clinton offers at least one major reason for Wall Street to get behind her, proposing tweaks to the financial system while other Democrats call for breaking up the biggest firms.

Wall Street Journal:

Murky Data Add to China’s Housing Headache. Glut in China’s property market is worse than official data show, creating a drag on economic growth. Lacking only façade work, wiring and paint, the red-brick duplexes lining a remote street in the Chinese port city of Qingdao could, if required, hit the market in a matter of days. That presents a problem for China and the world.

Zero Hedge:

They're Baaaaack.... It took nearly a decade, but "owning" a house for zero money down has finally come back.
Obama Withdraws Aircraft Carrier Support From Middle East Just As Russia Unveils Its Syrian Airbase.
Did Obama Telegraph A "Get Out Of Jail Free" Card For Hillary On National Television?
Gold ETF Holdings Surge Most In 9 Months. (graph)
Goldman Sachs Fires Analysts For Cheating On "Compliance" Tests.
Yellen's "Favorite" Labor Indicator Tumbles: Job Openings Drop Most Since 2009. (graph)
Did Obama Just Set Off A Global Nuclear Arms Race By Signing The Iran Deal?
As Worldwide Sales Collapse, VW's Dieselgate Scandal Could Cost Up To $87 Billion In Total.
Rate-Hike Looms As The Fed's Much-Watched Consumer Confidence Bounces. (graph)
Options Market "Crash" Indicator Hits Peak Panic, Surpasses Record Highs. (graph)
Industrial Production For Oil And Gas Well Drilling Drops To Lowest This Century. (graph)
QE "Barbell" Returns: Biggest Junk Bonds Inflow In 8 Months; Most Gold Buying In 7 Weeks. (graph)

Business Insider:

Mitt Romney just ripped Donald Trump's 'hurtful' comments and predicted they'll cast a 'shadow' over the race.

NY Times:

14 Years After U.S. Invasion, the Taliban Are Back in Control of Large Parts of Afghanistan. The Taliban have a significant footprint in Afghanistan, according to Bill Roggio, the editor of The Long War Journal, an online publication that is tracking Taliban control. Mr. Roggio has confirmed that about one-fifth of the country is controlled or contested by the Taliban, but based on his understanding of how the Taliban operate, he said, “they probably either control or heavily influence about a half of the country.”