Thursday, October 22, 2015

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:
  • Large-Cap Value +1.52%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Steel +3.83% 2) Semis +3.36% 3) Restaurants +2.88%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • TBI, ORAN, CIT, MCD, GLW, UIS, MJN, PFPT, EBAY, ZSPH, BCC, CTXS, TXN, CRS, URI, VMI, WCC, MFRM, BRKL, ACOR, POOL, GGG, BMS, EEFT, AOS, NOW, HXL, MJN, BDN, DOW and MMM
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) HRTX 2) GLW 3) INFN 4) SKX 5) SIRI
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) CCI 2) MCD 3) EBAY 4) CTRX 5) UIS
Charts:

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

Wednesday, October 21, 2015

Thursday Watch

Evening Headlines 
Bloomberg:
  • Shanghai Halts Land Auctions as Surging Prices Worry Officials. Shanghai has halted six land auctions since Oct. 12, as officials are seeking to rein in the property market after the government’s loosening of curbs triggered surging prices. The city on Oct. 12 called off an auction for a plot of land in Yangpu district, with a starting price of 4 billion yuan ($630 million), two days before it was scheduled, saying “more conditions are needed to be met to develop the land.” The auction has been rescheduled to resume next month, with plans to more than double the number of apartments that can be built on the land. As of Monday, auctions for another five residential and commercial sites were suspended in suburban Qingpu, Jiading and Songjiang districts. 
  • Sydney Housing Boom Over as Price Growth Slows, Domain Says. Sydney’s housing boom is over, according to online real estate listing firm Domain. House prices grew just 3.2 percent in the three months ending Sept. 30, less than half the pace of the previous quarter and the slowest quarterly rate since March 2014, Domain said in a report published Thursday.“The extraordinary house price growth Sydney has recorded over the last three years is now clearly receding,” the firm’s senior economist Andrew Wilson said in the report, titled “Boom is Over.”  
  • ECB Haunted by Paradox as Draghi Weighs Risks of QE Signaling. Mario Draghi’s challenge on Thursday is to show that he’s readier than ever to step up stimulus, without panicking investors over the euro area’s health. In the run-up to the European Central Bank’s meeting in Malta, the institution’s president and most of his Governing Council said it’s too early to decide whether to expand their 1.1 trillion-euro ($1.2 trillion) bond-buying program. Yet with economists seeing the need for a fresh boost before year-end, he’ll probably be pressured to provide reassurance that the penultimate monetary-policy session of 2015 won’t leave the ECB behind the curve. Officials sitting down to talk will have to deal with a complex scenario of mixed domestic economic signals, an uncertain global outlook, and divergent opinions on what’s needed to combat feeble inflation. The paradox for Draghi is that when he holds his regular press conference, he may find himself addressing the risks to the recovery without yet committing to action.
  • Asian Stocks Follow U.S. Equities Lower as Material Shares Slide. Asian stocks fell from a two-month high, following a decline in U.S. equities, as material and health-care companies led losses. Investors awaited the opening of Chinese markets after yesterday’s slump. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index slipped 0.3 percent to 134.17 as of 9:04 a.m. in Tokyo.   
  • Obama Seeks Broad Bankruptcy Power for Puerto Rico in Crisis. President Barack Obama is pressing for Congress to give Puerto Rico sweeping powers to reduce its $73 billion debt burden through bankruptcy, escalating administration involvement as the Caribbean island’s access to cash dries up. Puerto Rico would be provided with a form of bankruptcy protection not now available to American territories. Administration officials also called for lawmakers on Wednesday to increase health-care funding for Puerto Rico, extend tax credits to the poor and put independent oversight in place to monitor the government’s budget.
  • Ackman Feeling Shortseller's Sting as Citron Sinks Valeant(VRX) Stock. Back at you, Bill Ackman. Ackman, the billionaire hedge fund manager, has long maintained that Herbalife Ltd. is a house of cards -- a suggestion that’s drawn howls from the company. Now another Wall Street scold, Citron Research’s Andrew Left, says one of Ackman’s picks looks like the Enron Corp. of Big Pharma -- a claim the company, Valeant Pharmaceuticals International Inc., rebutted Wednesday.
  • AmEx(AXP) Misses Estimates as Expenses Increase, Revenue Declines. American Express Co., the credit-card issuer grappling with the loss of its biggest partner, posted third-quarter profit that missed analysts’ estimates as expenses rose and revenue declined. Shares fell in extended trading. Net income slid 14 percent to $1.27 billion, or $1.24 a share, from $1.48 billion, or $1.40, a year earlier, the New York-based company said Wednesday in a statement. The average estimate of 29 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg was for profit of $1.31 a share. Revenue declined 1.3 percent to $8.19 billion, missing estimates. 
Wall Street Journal:
  • This Child Doesn’t Need a Solar Panel. Spending billions of dollars on climate-related aid in countries that need help with tuberculosis, malaria and malnutrition. In the run-up to the 2015 U.N. Climate Change Conference in Paris from Nov. 30 to Dec. 11, rich countries and development organizations are scrambling to join the fashionable ranks of “climate aid” donors. This effectively means telling the world’s worst-off people, suffering from tuberculosis, malaria or malnutrition, that what they really need isn’t medicine, mosquito nets or micronutrients, but a solar panel. It is terrible news. 
MarketWatch.com:
  • Community Health's(CYH) preliminary results miss target. Hospital operator Community Health Systems Inc. reported preliminary third-quarter results well below analysts' projections and cut its outlook for the year, citing a decline in admissions and a deterioration in payer mix. Typically, commercial payers, Medicare and Medicaid, which all combined account for a larger share of the company's revenue in the latest period, negotiate for lower rate increases. Shares, down nearly 25% this year, fell 15% to $34.41 in late trading.
CNBC:
  • 5 reasons oil could be nearing a new tipping point. Oil's bounce back from the summer's lows has the look of a bottoming in crude prices, but some strategists say the shakeout is not over. "I'm pretty sure we're going to see a new low. The probabilities are that we see a new low or two or three," said Edward Morse, head of global commodities research at Citigroup.
Reuters:
  • Texas Instruments' profit, revenue beat estimates. Texas Instruments Inc reported better-than-expected quarterly profit and revenue, helped by higher sales of its analog and embedded chips. Shares of the company, which also forecast current-quarter profit that beat analysts' estimates, rose 9 percent in after-market trading on Wednesday.
Financial Times:
  • Fund manager David Herro criticises corporate ‘climate appeasers’. A top US fund manager has accused multinational companies that signed a White House-sponsored pledge to tackle climate change of “appeasing environmental extremism”. David Herro, who runs the $29bn Oakmark International Fund at Harris Associates, said executives at the 81 signatories, which include Johnson & Johnson, Intel and Hershey, were putting “pop science” ahead ofshareholder value. “Our corporate leaders would rather cave in to political pressure that is based on pop science and emotion than focus on creating shareholder value? How sad,” Mr Herro wrote in comments under an FT.com article on the news. “Shareholders should seriously question executives who appease such environmental extremism and zealotry,” he added.
Telegraph:
South China Morning Post:
Evening Recommendations 
  • None of note
Night Trading
  • Asian equity indices are -.50% to +.25% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 140.0 +1.25 basis points.
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 78.25 +1.0 basis point.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 72.31 +.04%. 
  • S&P 500 futures +.24%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.29%.

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
  • (MMM)/2.01
  • (ALK)/2.10
  • (ADS)/3.93
  • (AB)/.42
  • (AEP)/1.00
  • (CAM)/.82
  • (CAT)/.79
  • (DHR)/1.04
  • (DOW)/.68
  • (LLY)/.76
  • (FCX)/-.09
  • (MCD)/1.28
  • (PH)/1.46
  • (NUE)/.49
  • (PTEN)/-.34
  • (PCP)/2.94
  • (PHM)/.43
  • (DGX)/1.26
  • (RTN)/1.43
  • (RS)/1.02
  • (R)/1.73
  • (SWK)/1.46
  • (SNA)/1.94
  • (TROW)/1.14
  • (UA)/.44
  • (UNP)/1.43
  • (UAL)/4.55
  • (HTLD)/.25
  • (GOOG)/7.21
  • (ALTR)/.31
  • (AMZN)/-.12
  • (T)/.69
  • (COF)/1.97
  • (JNPR)/.53
  • (LSTR)/.90
  • (MXIM)/.41
  • (MSFT)/.58
  • (SKX)/.55
Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
  • The Chicago Fed National Activity Index for September is estimated to rise to -.2 versus -.41 in August. 
  • Initial Jobless Claims are estimated to rise to 265K versus 255K the prior week.
  • Continuing Claims are estimated to rise to 2186K versus 2158K prior.
9:00 am EST
  • The FHFA House Price Index for August is estimated to rise +.5% versus a +.6% gain in July. 
10:00 am EST
  • Existing Home Sales for September are estimated to rise to 5.39M versus 5.31M in August.
  • The Leading Index for September is estimated unch. versus a +.1% gain in August.
11:00 am EST
  • The Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity Index for October is estimated to fall to -9.0 versus -8.0 in September.
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The ECB Rate decision, ECB Press Conference, Japan PMI, UK Retail Sales report, Bloomberg Economic Expectations Index for Oct., weekly Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report, (MJN) investor day and the (MFRM) analyst day could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by technology and real estate shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Reversing Lower into Final Hour on China Bubble-Bursting Fears, Earnings Outlook Worries, Oil Decline, Financial/Healthcare Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Declining
  • Volume: Below Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 15.41 -2.10%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 142.10 +.03%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 11.12 -.71%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 60.52 -3.26%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 115.0 +55.41%
  • Total Put/Call .94 -6.0%
  • NYSE Arms 1.39 +18.33% 
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 81.53 +.70%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 1,064.0 +.75%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 73.75 -1.02%
  • Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 20.61 +4.04%
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 78.14 +1.03%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 334.83 +.11%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporates High Yield Index 121.74 +.06%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 10.75 unch.
  • TED Spread 31.25 +.5 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -24.75 -.25 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 72.26 -.58%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .00% -1.0 basis point
  • Yield Curve 141.0 -3.0 basis points
  • China Import Iron Ore Spot $52.79/Metric Tonne -.26%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -5.60 +1.6 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 9.0 +1.5 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -15.60 +1.8 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.46 -2.0 basis points
  • # of Months to 1st Fed Rate Hike(Morgan Stanley) 6.37 -.38
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +49 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -162 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -16 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Slightly Higher: On gains in my medical sector longs, index hedges and emerging markets shorts
  • Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 25% Net Long

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg: 
  • China Defaults Seen Rising After Sinosteel Misses Payment. China bond defaults are forecast to climb after a state-owned steelmaker missed an interest payment, raising questions about the government’s commitment to stand behind such firms. Sinosteel Co. failed to pay interest due Tuesday on 2 billion yuan ($315 million) of 5.3 percent notes maturing in 2017 after saying it will extend the deadline as it plans to add a unit’s stock as collateral. That came after the National Development and Reform Commission planned to meet noteholders and ask them not to exercise a redemption option on Tuesday to force full repayment, people familiar with the matter said last week.
  • China's Stocks Fall Most in Month as Small-Caps Lead Declines. China’s stocks dropped the most in a month on heavy volume, led by smaller companies, as investors weighed whether an equity rebound had gone too far. The Shanghai Composite Index slid 3.1 percent to 3,320.68 at the close, the most since Sept. 15. The ChiNext index of smaller companies slumped 6.6 percent after soaring 40 percent through Tuesday from last month’s low. Leshi Internet Information & Technology Corp. and East Money Information Co., the heaviest-weighted ChiNext stocks, both tumbled by the 10 percent daily limit. Jiangxi Copper Co. paced declines for material producers, tumbling 7.8 percent.
  • ABB Profit Drops 21% Amid China Slowdown, Drop in Oil Prices. ABB Ltd, the power-grid maker that has activist Cevian Capital as a shareholder, said third-quarter margins improved on cost cutting even as profit dropped 21 percent amid a slowdown in China and feeble demand from oil and gas customers. Net income declined to $577 million, the Oerlikon, Switzerland-based company said in a statement on Wednesday. Earnings before interest, taxes and amortization fell 9 percent to $1.08 billion while a savings push lifted the operating ebitda margin 50 basis points to 12.5 percent. 
  • Khamenei Endorses Nuclear Deal But With Warning Over Sanctions. Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei threw his authority behind the country’s nuclear accord with world powers for the first time, while issuing a warning over the removal of sanctions. In a statement addressed to President Hassan Rouhani and published by state news agencies, Khamenei said he appreciated the work of Iran’s diplomats in securing the deal. But he said the government should remain vigilant over any failure to deliver on commitments to remove sanctions by European nations and the U.S. 
  • Rousseff Impeachment Bid Filed as Crisis Hits New Stage. A group of high-profile lawyers filed a request on Wednesday to impeach President Dilma Rousseff, bringing closer a decision on her political survival as months of uncertainty have paralyzed Congress, rattled financial markets and deepened an economic slump. Lower house President Eduardo Cunha, a vocal critic of Rousseff who himself faces corruption allegations, pledged no bias in deciding whether to accept the plea that alleges she manipulated budget accounts in 2014 and this year. Accepting the petition could take days or weeks and would trigger a protracted legal process that could eventually force the president from office.
  • EU Calls for Talks as Migrant Crisis Deepens in Balkans. European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker called for emergency talks and Slovenia gave its army a green light to help control a surge in migrants as Europe’s refugee crisis deepened before the onset of winter. German Chancellor Angela Merkel will join government leaders from eight other countries from central and southeastern Europe at the meeting scheduled for Sunday in Brussels, Juncker said. Earlier, Slovene lawmakers gave the army additional powers to help police man border posts overwhelmed with migrants, according to the parliament’s website. The Adriatic nation of 2 million people will also ask the European Union for assistance.
  • Draghi May Lack What It Takes to Do Whatever It Takes on Prices. Having once saved the euro with his 2012 pledge to do “whatever it takes,” the European Central Bank president is now signaling a willingness to boost his 1.1 trillion-euro ($1.3 trillion) quantitative-easing program in response to a negative inflation rate. The problem is that the ECB risks running into political and technical limits on just what bonds it can purchase. Those constraints mean investors are already starting to question just how much more the euro area’s policy makers can do to revive inflation. The ECB Governing Council starts a two-day monetary policy meeting in Malta on Wednesday and Draghi will hold a press conference on Thursday.   
  • Emerging Currencies Slide to Two-Week Low as China Stocks Drop. Emerging-market currencies fell to a two-week low and stocks retreated as falling commodity prices and a slide in Chinese shares refocused concern on slowing growth in the world’s second-largest economy. A gauge tracking 20 developing-nation currencies weakened 0.5 percent, dropping for a fourth day. South Africa’s rand and Russia’s ruble slumped at least 1.1 percent against the dollar as oil prices retreated. The real fell for a second day on speculation Brazil will change this year’s budget target to a deficit from a surplus, underscoring its inability to shore up government finances.
  • European Stocks Are Little Changed as ARM Climbs, Miners DeclineEuropean stocks fluctuated throughout the day, before closing little changed, as investors oscillated between concern about global growth and optimism regarding corporate earnings. Anglo American Plc and Glencore Plc led resource-related companies lower, erasing an earlier advance, amid slumping commodity prices. ARM pushed a gauge of technology shares to the biggest gain on the Stoxx Europe 600 Index, jumping 6.5 percent after third-quarter revenue beat analyst estimates. Reckitt Benckiser climbed 2.5 percent after raising its full-year growth target. Credit Suisse Group AG lost 3.6 percent after saying it will raise fresh capital and reorganize its operational focus. The Stoxx 600 lost less than 0.1 percent to 362.64 at the close of trading, after earlier rising 0.4 percent and falling as much as 0.8 percent.
  • Jim Chanos Nails the Link Between Debt and Energy. Shale companies have relied on eager capital markets for growth.  So begins the latest presentation from renowned short-seller Jim Chanos. What follows is a powerful outline of the spirally debt dynamics that now dominate the future of the oil industry. At the heart of Chanos's thesis is the contention that years of low interest rates, cheap financing, overeager investors and ambitious managers have helped propel the boom in U.S. shale and imbue it with near unstoppable momentum; U.S. oil production is expected to grow 6 percent in 2015, despite a stunning 59 percent drop in the U.S. rig count over the past year.
  • Loan-Market Slump Threatens to Gum Up Wall Street's M&A Machine. Here’s an ominous sign for Wall Street’s debt-fueled M&A bonanza: Investors are increasingly wary of loans that fund leveraged takeovers. Almost half of the $75 billion buyout loans arranged in the U.S. last year and tracked by Bloomberg in the secondary market are trading below their issue price.
  • Barclays Sees VIX Rebound With Risk Premium at Bull Market Low. The U.S. stock market is quiet -- too quiet. One example is the price investors are paying for options on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index, a value that is captured by the Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index. At present, options dealers are charging so little for protection in equities that the VIX is trading at a six-year low compared with the actual volatility of the benchmark gauge. That’s not a good sign to Barclays Plc derivatives strategist Maneesh S. Deshpande, who sees the potential for the VIX to snap back from its recent slide.
  • Valeant(VRX) Plummets on Allegation of Enron-Like Accounting. Valeant Pharmaceuticals International Inc. shares took a beating, falling more than 20 percent, after a stock-commentary site run by a short seller accused the company of an Enron-like strategy of recording fake sales by using phony customers. Citron Research said Valeant is using a specialty pharmacy called Philidor RX Services to store inventory and record those transactions as sales. “Is this Enron part deux?” the report said. “These similarities are too close to ignore.”
Fox News:
Zero Hedge
Telegraph:
Tehran Times:
  • Russia Seeks Five-Fold Boost in Iran Trade to $10B. Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak heading a high-ranking Russian energy delegation will arrive in Tehran today to explore ways for boosting the value of trade between Iran and Russia. The two-day visit of the Russian delegation is aimed at boosting Iran-Russia worth of annual trade to $10 billion from the current $2 billion, according to the IRNA news agency. 

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:
  • Small-Cap Growth -1.75%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Coal -6.16% 2) HMOs -4.03% 3) Hospitals -3.03%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:
  • VRX, CLS, WTW, VMW, CXRX, PII, WSBC, AGN, ABG, PSO, ENDP, BIN, EROS, WDC, FCAU, EFII, AOS, LTXB, HZNP, CMG, SLGN, KRC, CSL, MKTX, HOG, IBB, CREE, HOG, CEMP, IRBT, WWW, APH, RUSHA, AGIO, AMSG, EMC, PENN, PKG, HUM, STJ, CPHD, ZSPH, PII, INSY and RLYP
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) VRX 2) Z 3) AET 4) XRT 5) VMW
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) PBR 2) HOG 3) VMW 4) VRX 5) TSLA
Charts: