Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Value unch.

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Oil Service -4.4% 2) Gold & Silver -1.4% 3) Energy -1.2%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• GCO, SNDX, IGT, AKAO, SIG, WMS, HRL, FTI, DO and BF/B

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) BBY 2) MPC 3) SM 4) NTAP 5) FDC

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) APC 2) AXL 3) GM 4) FCX 5) ETSY

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth +.8%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Disk Drives +1.8% 2) Airlines +1.4% 3) Internet +1.4%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• AERI, BL, GLYC, BBY, INFO, RYAM, PSTG, GTT, BURL, JKS, SCVL, PBYI, GES, AZUL, WUBA, PVH, CPRT, LOGI, PDCO, DLTR, TITN, ULTA, EXR, IART, NTAP, MOD, ANF, PCTY, IDTI and PDCO

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) BBY 2) FDC 3) MPC 4) SM 5) NTAP

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) SHLD 2) TGI 3) MAR 4) HK 5) LEA

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -12.8% Below 100-Day Average
• 10 Sectors Rising, 0 Sectors Declining
• 67.0% of Issues Advancing, 28.7% Declining
• 173 New 52-Week Highs, 14 New Lows
• 46.1% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 36.5%
• Vix 9.9 -1.3%
• Total Put/Call .86 -7.5%
• TRIN/Arms 1.01 -15.4%

Thursday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are +.25% to +.75% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 90.5 unch. 

• Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 19.5 -.5 basis point.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 73.14 +.1%.

• S&P 500 futures +.29%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.33%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate

• (ANF)/-.70

• (BBY)/.40

• (CBK)/-.15

• (DLTR)/1.00

• (GCO)/.30

• (HRL)/.40

• (IGT)/.44

• (MDT)/1.31

• (SAFM)/2.44

• (SHLD)/-.72

• (SIG)/1.66

• (TTC)/1.04

• (TD)/1.24

• (COST)/1.31

• (DECK)/-.06

• (MRVL)/.21

• (ULTA)/1.80

• (COST)/1.31

• (DECK)/-.06

• (GME)/.51

• (ZOES)/.01

Economic Releases 
8:30 am 

• Advance Goods Trade Balance for April is estimated at -$64.5B versus -$64.2B in March.

• Preliminary Wholesale Inventories MoM for April are estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.2% gain in March.

• Initial Jobless Claims for last week are estimated to rise to 238K versus 232K the prior week.

• Continuing Claims are estimated to rise to 1925K versus 1898K prior.

11:00 am EST

• The Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity report for May is estimated to rise to 10.0 versus 7.0 in April.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Bullard speaking, Fed's Kashkari speaking, $20B 7Y T-Note auction, Japan CPI report, OPEC meeting, weekly Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report and the UK GDP report could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE:  Asian indices are higher, boosted by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to maintain gains into the afternoon.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Slightly Higher into Afternoon on Less European/Emerging Markets Debt Angst, Yen Weakness, Buyout Speculation, HMO/Restaurant Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Slightly Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed
  

• Volume: Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 10.50 -2.05%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 130.74 +.22%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.14 -1.45%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 40.02 +.68%

• ISE Sentiment Index 62.0 -44.6%
  

• Total Put/Call .88 -2.22%

• NYSE Arms 1.33 +30.8%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 62.39 -.41%
  

• America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 360.0 +1.64%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 67.39 +.51%

• Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 7.99 -5.67%

• Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 19.44 -2.34%

• Emerging Market CDS Index 192.62 -.54%
  

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 138.50 +.02%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 22.5 -1.25 basis points

• TED Spread 27.25 -1.0 basis point

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -33.25 unch.

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 72.94 +.12%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .93% +3.0 basis points
  

• Yield Curve 96.50 -1.5 basis points
  

• China Import Iron Ore Spot $60.52/Metric Tonne -2.39%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -38.80 +.1 point

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 60.90 +.5 point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 21.80 -1.2 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.84 -2.0 basis points
  
• 93.4% chance of Fed rate hike at July 26 meeting, 95.6% chance at Sept. 20 meeting

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +3 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -10 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -10 open in Germany

Portfolio: 

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my biotech/medical/tech sector longs 

• Disclosed Trades: None

• Market Exposure: 75% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Value unch.

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Gold & Silver -1.0% 2) Steel -1.0% 3) Oil Service -1.0%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• DY, TIF, NBIX, ALNY, IMAX, SIG, TROW, MOMO, MMYT, AAP, CIEN, UVV and TROX

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) TIF 2) LOW 3) NBL 4) DG 5) HUN

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) SIG 2) CIEN 3) TROW 4) ULTA 5) OOMA

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume