Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth -.8%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Oil Service -3.6% 2) Internet -1.6% 3) Paper -1.2%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• EXAS, NSP, CTB, VET, TEAM, GTT, TTD, MDB, CYBR, AWI and TNET

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) SIRI 2) LL 3) EXAS 4) NWL 5) MYL

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) CTB 2) GPRE 3) EQT 4) DPZ 5) BE

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Value +.1%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Road & Rail +1.1% 2) REITs +.6% 3) Pharma +.5%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• LHC, MYL, TSEM, GHDX, CAF, YNDX, VGR, SNBR, ENVA, SLP, THC, FISV, TPB, HAIN, BUD, BAH, ARRY, IBN, LK, AZN, CMG, AUDC, GRUB, OSTK, NTUS, HAIN, ENVA and GHDX

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) KNX 2) HLT 3) HPQ 4) NOW 5) NSC

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) FRED 2) DBD 3) NI 4) PYPL 5) FDX

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -7.8% Below 100-Day Average
• 5 Sectors Rising, 6 Sectors Declining
• 45.5% of Issues Advancing, 51.2% Declining
• 188 New 52-Week Highs, 66 New Lows
• 63.5% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 50.1%
• Vix 12.8 +4.9%
• Total Put/Call .78 -1.3%
• TRIN/Arms 1.56 +66.0%

Monday Watch

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:    

• U.S.-China Talks Set to Resume as Neither Seems Eager for a Deal.

• Hong Kong Police Fire Tear Gas at Protesters in Residential Area.

• China’s U.S. Soybean Purchases Slump to 2004 Low.    

• Negative Rates Are About the Only Tool Central Banks Have Left.

• Stocks Look Mixed With Trade Talks, Fed in Focus. Asian stocks looked set to start the week on a mixed note as U.S.-China trade talks resume and the Federal Reserve is expected to deliver its first interest-rate cut in a decade. Futures pointed to modest gains in Japan and Australia, while Hong Kong contracts inched lower. U.S. futures were flat in early Asian trading after the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite indexes hit fresh records Friday as technology shares rallied. Treasuries were little changed and the dollar advanced against its major peers after White House adviser Larry Kudlow said the U.S. has ruled out plans to intervene in foreign-exchange markets. Futures on the Nikkei 225 rose 0.3% earlier. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index contracts rose 0.3%. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index futures dipped 0.1%. S&P 500 futures were little changed.  

• Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day.

• Fed Chair Jerome Powell Likes the Economy Hot.

• The Tax Biden Wants to Double and Trump Would Slash.

• Traders on Edge as Fed Looks Poised for Data-Independent Easing.

Wall Street Journal:

• Chinese High-Yield Debt Is a Rare Bright Spot.

• China Trade Talks Set to Resume With Modest Expectations.

• With Stocks at Fresh Highs, Investors’ Portfolios Look Alike.

• Iran Rebuffs European Efforts to Defuse Gulf Tensions.

• Hong Kong Police Fire Tear Gas at Demonstrators as Tensions Flare.

• Medicare for All Question Vexes 2020 Democrats.

MarketWatch.com:

• Here are the stock market’s winners and losers in the first half of 2019. 

• Deutsche Bank pegs its derivatives exposure at about $22 billion — and faces challenges in shedding those assets.

Fox News:

• President Trump picks Texas Republican to replace intel director after feuds

• Mulvaney: Nadler impeachment push an effort to avoid loss to 'the next AOC'.

• Trump hits Dems over accusations of racism, slams Cummings' 'poor job' in Baltimore.

CNBC:

• Passive investing boom could cause a market bubble, but not in the stocks you would expect.

• From private insurance to tariffs, here are the business issues to watch in next Democratic debate.

Zero Hedge:     

• "The July Crisis" - For The First Time, Beijing Will Officially Respond To Hong Kong Protests.

• Dan Coats Out As Top Intelligence Chief After Series Of Public Clashes With Trump.

• Capitalism Isn't The Reason We're Unhappy.

• Russia Probe Twist: The FBI, A Convicted Russian Agent, & A Billionaire American CEO.

• Buchanan: After Mueller Debacle, Where Do Democrats Go?

• Americans Didn't Need The Original "New Deal".

• Giant 'Shark Spy Drone' Featured At Chinese Military Expo.

• The CIA's "Intelligence Authorization Act" Would Criminalize Whistleblowers And Reporters.

• FAA Let Boeing Sign Its Own Safety Certifications On The 737 Max.

Business Insider:

• Bernie Sanders compared Baltimore to a 'third world country' in an old clip dug up by Trump's 2020 re-election campaign.

Night Trading

• Asian indices are unch. to +.5% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 57.50 unch.

• China Sovereign CDS 39.50 +.25 basis point.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 67.33 unch.

• FTSE 100 futures +.09%.

• S&P 500 futures -.05%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.04%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note

Company/Estimate

Before the Open:

• (AMG)/3.18

• (BAH)/.72

• (CTB)/.50

After the Close:

• (AKS)/.06

• (BYND)/-.08

• (CGNX)/.23

• (ILMN)/1.34

• (NXPI)/1.78

• (SBAC)/1.73

• (TEX)/1.34

• (RIG)/-.34

• (TREX)/.64

• (VNO)/.86

Economic Releases

10:30 am EST

• The Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity Index for July is estimated to rise to -5.0 versus -12.1 in June.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The China trade talks with Lightheizer and Japan industrial production report could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly higher, boosted by industrial and financial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the week.

Weekly Outlook

• Wall St. Week Ahead by Reuters. 

• Weekly Market Outlook by Yahoo. (video)

• Global Economy Week by Bloomberg.

• Stocks to Watch Next Week by Seeking Alpha.

• Weekly Economic Calendar by Briefing.com.

BOTTOM LINE: I expect US stocks to finish the week mixed as profit-taking, less dovish FOMC commentary and China trade deal concerns offset earnings optimism, short-covering and technical buying. My intermediate-term trading indicators are giving neutral signals and the Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the week.

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:     

• Clashes in Hong Kong Near Site of Sunday's Battles.  

• China’s Industrial Profits Decline as Economy Weakens. 

• Boris Johnson Repeats Backstop Must Be Dropped From Brexit Deal.

• U.S. Urges Russia to Release Imprisoned Ukrainian Sailors.   

• Oil Ends Week Higher as Supply Threats Outweigh Doubts on Demand.

• Female Millionaires Earned More Than Men in the U.S. on Average.  

• Warren Goes Big, Rise of Boris and Oligarch Purge: Weekend Reads. 

• Latest 737 Max Fault That Alarmed Test Pilots Rooted in Software.

Wall Street Journal:

• London Stock Exchange Eyes $15 Billion Bet for Refinitiv.

• Pfizer Nears Deal to Combine Off-Patent Drug Business With Mylan.

• Can the Internet Save the Department Store?

• Trump Presses WTO to Change China’s ‘Developing’ Status.

• House Democrats End Session With Impeachment Debate Tempered.

• More Than 1,000 Detained in Moscow Protest.

Barron's:

• Had bullish commentary on (PCG), (MTOR), (DLPH), (BWA) and (DAN).

• Had bearish commentary on (OKTA), (WDAY) and (NOW).

MarketWatch.com:

• Five things to watch from next week’s crucial Fed meeting.

• Earnings Season So Far: Revenue Beats Meet Low Expectations.

Fox News:

• Trump slams 'brutal' Cummings, calls rep’s district ‘more dangerous’ than border.

• Pelosi, Schumer reel as Supreme Court sides with Trump on $2.5B border plan.

CNBC:

• The IRS is warning thousands of cryptocurrency holders to pay their taxes.

• The Fed is about to cut rates to protect the economy, even though most signs are strong.

• Trump says he ‘might’ put tariffs on French wine in response to digital tax.

• As electric vehicle production ramps up worldwide, a supply crunch for battery materials is looming.

Zero Hedge:  

• Europe Promises More "Stimulus" Seven Years After Draghi's Promise For "Stimulus".

• EU Faces Two Ugly Realities: Johnson Will Deliver Brexit, Eurozone in Recession.

• Radicalization Of Kids: A Global Threat.

• Washington State Releases Hundreds Of Illegal Aliens Charged With Crimes, Including Felonies.

• Hong Kong Protests Turn Chaotic As Police Storm Subway Station, Fire Tear Gas Into Crowds.

• For The First Time In 6 Years, No Central Bank Is Hiking.

• IRS Sends 1000s Of "Fishing" Letters To Crypto Users.

• "I Don't See How We'll Survive" - Rising Minimum Wage Squeezes California Restaurants.

• The Real Reason The Propagandists Have Been Promoting Russia Hysteria.

• Cryptos Flash-Crash Overnight, Alt-Coins' Post-Libra Collapse Continues.

• US Fertility Rates Plunge To 'All-Time Low,' CDC Warns.

• "There's No End In Sight": Hong Kong Protests Spark Comparisons To France's Yellow Vest Movement.

• "California Is Being Overrun By Rodents" – And We're Not Talking About The Politicians.

• As Accusations Of Fraud Swirl, Rep. Ilhan Omar Busts A Move And Splits From Husband.

• Trump Touts "Big Victory" After Supreme Court Allows Military Funding For Border Wall.

• Barr's Russiagate Origin Probe Pivots To 'Smoking Gun' Tapes With Exculpatory Evidence.

• Epstein's 'Lolita Express' Pilots Subpoenaed In Sex-Trafficking Investigation.

• Trump Hints No Trade Deal Until After The Election, Threatens Tariffs On French Wine.

• "Unprecedented, Wasteful & Obscene": House Approves $1.48 Trillion Pentagon Budget.

• Stocks Soar To Record Highs As Corporate Profits Hit 8 Year Lows.

Business Insider: 

• US stocks surge to a record on blockbuster tech earnings.

• Juul targeted kids in its advertising and told high-school students its e-cigs were 'totally safe,' according to congressional testimony.