Stocks Slightly Higher into Final Hour on Stimulus Hopes, Economic Data, Oil Gain, Commodity/Retail Sector Strength

 Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  

• Volume: Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 23.2 -9.2%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 2,098.0 +197.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 130.69 -.08%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.1 -.98%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 50.1 -2.4%

• ISE Sentiment Index 149.0 +43.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .84 +7.7%

• NYSE Arms .56 -67.8%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 52.51 -1.2%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 502.10 -1.34%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 59.23 -2.59%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 105.0 -9.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 59.88 -2.63%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 160.69 -3.16%
  

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 185.57 +.09%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 8.5 +.75 basis point

• TED Spread 15.25 unch.
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -4.5 +.25 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  65.75 -.75 basis point
  
• IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 74.75 +1.0 basis point

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 62.43 +.03%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .04% unch.
  

• Yield Curve 101.5 +3.25 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 147.15 USD/Metric Tonne +2.37%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 67.90 +7.4 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 150.9 +25.5 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 67.40 -1.3 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.17 +3.0 basis points
• 100.0% chance of no change at April 28th meeting, 100.0% chance of no change at June 16th meeting

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -56 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -81 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +25 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my energy/tech/industrial sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long
  

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +3.3% Above 100-Day Average 
• 8 Sectors Rising, 3 Sectors Declining
• 52.4% of Issues Advancing, 45.1% Declining
• 99 New 52-Week Highs, 0 New Lows
• 83.9% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 48.6% 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 2,080.0 +179.0 points
• Vix 23.6 -7.7%
• Total Put/Call .81 +3.9%
• TRIN/Arms .51 -70.7%

Wednesday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:            

• China Stockpiles Chips and Chip-Making Machines to Resist U.S.   
• China Faces a Liquidity Test Just Days After Crunch Passed.
• Equities Extend Rally in Asia; Dollar Holds Losses: Markets Wrap.
• Oil Jumps to One-Year High With Depleting Supplies Aiding Rally.  
• Powell’s Taper Future, Phantom Stimulus, N.Z. Jobs Boom: Eco Day.  
• U.S. to Deliver Doses to Pharmacies; Yang Infected: Virus Update.
• Meme Stocks Lose $167 Billion as Reddit Crowd Preaches Defiance.
• Reddit’s Market ‘Hype Machine’ Is in a Quest to Drive Out Bots.  
• Senate Democrats Move to Put Biden Stimulus Plan on Fast Track.
• Pelosi Steps Up Security for Traveling Members of Congress.  
• California Poll Shows Newsom’s Support Slipping as Foes Push Recall.  
• Mark Cuban Tells WallStreetBets to Hold ‘If You Can Afford to’.

Wall Street Journal:

• The Risks of Too Much ‘Stimulus’.
• Coup Puts Myanmar at the Center of U.S.-China Clash.
• Joe Biden’s New Trans Policy.
• Tesla Recalls 135,000 Vehicles Over Touch-Screen Failures.
  

CNBC.com:

• Jeff Bezos to step down as Amazon CEO, Andy Jassy to take over in Q3.
• Amazon’s next CEO transformed e-commerce company into a cloud giant.
• Reddit user who helped inspire GameStop mania says he lost $13 million, but is still holding on.
• Chipotle shares fall 4% as surging digital orders ease from record pace, earnings fall short.
• GameStop plunges 60%, has lost more than 70% of its value since Friday.
• Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: Alphabet, Amazon, GameStop and more.

Zero Hedge:

• Dave Portnoy Loses '700K-ish' After Selling 'Meme Stocks'.
• Amazon Reports Blowout Quarter, Jeff Bezos Stepping Down As CEO.
• NY Times Calls For Biden To Appoint "Reality Czar" To Fight "Misinformation".
• China Suspected In Hack Of US Federal Payroll Agency Using SolarWind Exploit.
• Former ECB Chief Mario Draghi Tapped To Lead Italy As Government Collapses.
• GameStop's Stock May Have Exploded, But Traffic To Its Stores Is Still Tumbling.
• WTI Extends Gains After Another Big Crude Inventory Drawdown.
• Gone In 60 Seconds: Catalytic Converter Theft Erupts Across Country.
• SpaceX's Starship Prototype Rocket Crashes On Landing Attempt.
• Alphabet Shares Soar To New Record High After Crushing Expectations.
• Stocks, Crypto, & Bond Yields Pop As WSB Game Stopped.

Newsmax:

• Florida Gov. DeSantis Declares War on 'Big Tech Cartel'.
• WH Indicates It's in No Hurry to Engage China. 
• Iran Deepens Breach of Nuclear Deal at Underground Site.

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• America Last: Joe Biden to Open Special COVID Vaccination Sites for Illegal Aliens.
• Author, Filmmaker and Activist Mike Cernovich to Challenge Governor Newsom as Likelihood of Recall Looms.
• Lindsay Graham Offers Support for Liz Cheney and Then Warns the Trump Team About Attempting to Present Evidence of Election Fraud In Front of the Senate.
• “There Are Many Democrats Who Said Unsavory Things – Anti-Semitic Things” – Rep. Devin Nunes Defends Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene from Media Onslaught (VIDEO).
• WATCH: Newsmax Host Has Mike Lindell on to Talk About Tech Censorship — Ends Up Censoring Him As Well — Then Storms Out of Studio.
• Top Democrat Calls on Pentagon to Screen Social Media Accounts of All Recruits for Ties to White Supremacy and “Violent Extremism”.
• Why Has Wisconsin Done Nothing With the 200,000 Ballots Its Supreme Court Claimed Were Likely Invalid In the 2020 Election?
• Trump Was Right! CNN Sees Viewership Shrink by 44% in First Post-Trump Week – MSNBC Down 20%.
• Joe Biden to Divert $30 Billion in Aid Trump Left For Farmers to Climate Change without Waiting For Congress.

HereIsTheEvidence.com:

• This is for aggregating publicly available items of voter fraud evidence in the US election that would be admissible in court.
  

Digital Blackboard:

• Daily New Cases by Region.

Worldometer:

• New Cases/Deaths by state.

Rt Covid-19:

• How fast virus is growing by state.

KFF:

• State Data(Tests/Hospitalizations).

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are +.25% to +.75% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 60.0 -1.75 basis points.

• China Sovereign CDS 30.25 -.75 basis point.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 62.45 +.05%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 1,938.0 +36.0 points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 28.42 -1.11%.
• FTSE 100 futures +.31%.

• S&P 500 futures +.40%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.50%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• (ABBV)/2.85
• (APTV)/1.01
• (BIIB)/4.76
• (BSX)/.31
• (GWW)/3.84
• (HUM)/-2.32
• (SMG)/-.68
  

After the Close:

• (ADTN)/.07
• (AFL)/1.04
• (ALGN)/2.13
• (ALL)/3.83
• (UHAL)/7.08
• (AVB)/2.09
• (CTSH)/.90
• (EBAY)/.83
• (GRUB)/.04
• (IAC)/-.34
• (KLAC)/3.21
• (MET)/1.51
• (PYPL)/1.00
• (QCOM)/2.09
• (RGLD)/.88
• (SUM)/.17
• (YUMC)/.26
  

Economic Releases

8:15 am EST

• The ADP Employment Change for Jan. is estimated to rise to 50K versus -123K in Dec.

10:00 am EST

• The ISM Services Index for Jan. is estimated to fall to 56.7 versus 57.2 in Dec.

10:30 am EST

• Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory decline of -971,550 barrels versus a -9,910,000 barrel decline the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to rise by +914,450 barrels versus a +2,469,000 barrel gain the prior week. Distillate inventories are estimated to rise to -246,090 barrels versus a -815,000 barrel decline the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to fall -.02% versus a -.8% decline prior.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The German Services PMI report, weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report and the (COST) Jan. sales results could also impact trading today.

Market Hours
Normal:

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly higher, boosted by technology and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to maintain gains into the afternoon. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Substantially Higher into Final Hour on Stimulus Hopes, Vaccine Optimism, Oil Gain, Transport/Financial Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Rising
  

• Volume: Above Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 25.4 -15.9%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 1,899.0 +481.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 130.70 -.17%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.3 -1.1%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 52.1 -.02%

• ISE Sentiment Index 101.0 -54.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .76 -1.3%

• NYSE Arms 2.27 +180.0%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 53.01 -3.4%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 510.40 -1.60%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 60.83 -2.2%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 114.0 -2.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 61.50 -1.79%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 165.47 -3.37%
  

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 185.40 -.12%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 7.75 unch.

• TED Spread 15.25 -.25 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -4.75 +.25 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  66.5 -2.25 basis points
  
• IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 73.75 unch.

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 62.42 +.34%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .04% -1.0 basis point
  

• Yield Curve 98.75 +2.5 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 144.15 USD/Metric Tonne -3.71%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 60.50 -.1 point

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 125.4 +1.4 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 68.70 +4.9 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.14 +5.0 basis points
• 100.0% chance of no change at April 28th meeting, 100.0% chance of no change at June 16th meeting

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +113 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -103 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +12 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my energy/tech/industrial/biotech/medical sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

 Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Value +.6%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Retail -7.2% 2) Gold & Silver -4.6% 3) Networking -.6%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• KMPR, CURI, AHCO, LGND, KPTI, AQUA, VRTX, CRUS, SPCE, LITE, PSAC, GATO, FIZZ, KMT, SKT, INO, MAC, MITK, THCB, BCRX, TR, BGS, FLGT, RVP, HOG, VRNT, IMVT and GME
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) GOGO 2) SAVA 3) LITE 4) MNST 5) VXRT
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) EXPR 2) LLNW 3) AAL 4) KR 5) IRTC
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Mid-Cap Growth +2.1%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Gaming +6.2% 2) Banks +3.2% 3) Road & Rail +2.7%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• SAVA, ALVR, MWK, VXRT, AKTS, ATKR, CDXS, HAE, CCIV, CRDF, SKY, DKNG, WAT, SLM, NRIX, TSIA, LPG, XONE, LSXMA, SWCH, CLDR, LSXMK, ALDX, CLGX, GPRE, CENX, OMCL, POWI, PEGA, STPK and OMER
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) DVAX 2) SLM 3) XLI 4) VTV 5) AEZS

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) TECH 2) PRTA 3) TVTX 4) DKNG 5) PANW
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume