Wednesday, February 03, 2021

Stocks Slightly Higher into Final Hour on Stimulus Hopes, Economic Data, Oil Gain, Commodity/Retail Sector Strength

 Broad Equity Market Tone:

  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  • Volume: Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 23.2 -9.2%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 2,098.0 +197.0 points
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 130.69 -.08%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.1 -.98%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 50.1 -2.4%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 149.0 +43.0 points
  • Total Put/Call .84 +7.7%
  • NYSE Arms .56 -67.8%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 52.51 -1.2%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 502.10 -1.34%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 59.23 -2.59%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 105.0 -9.0 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 59.88 -2.63%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 160.69 -3.16%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 185.57 +.09%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 8.5 +.75 basis point
  • TED Spread 15.25 unch.
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -4.5 +.25 basis point
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  65.75 -.75 basis point
  • IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 74.75 +1.0 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 62.43 +.03%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .04% unch.
  • Yield Curve 101.5 +3.25 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 147.15 USD/Metric Tonne +2.37%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 67.90 +7.4 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 150.9 +25.5 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 67.40 -1.3 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.17 +3.0 basis points
  • 100.0% chance of no change at April 28th meeting, 100.0% chance of no change at June 16th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -56 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -81 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +25 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Higher: On gains in my energy/tech/industrial sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long

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