Thursday, February 18, 2021

Stocks Lower into Afternoon on US Jobless Claims, Inflation Concerns, Oil Weakness, Alt Energy/Energy Sector Weakness

 

 Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  • Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Declining
  • Volume: Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 22.1 +2.7%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 2,821.0 -148.0 points
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 132.11 +.19%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.69 -.82%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 52.4 -.44%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 110.0 -33.0 points
  • Total Put/Call .83 +16.9%
  • NYSE Arms 1.28 +39.1%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 50.85 +1.1%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 490.08 +.14%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 58.79 +1.52%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 98.75 +3.25 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 57.15 +.07%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 165.69 +.59%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 185.70 +.09%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 9.5 +.25 basis point
  • TED Spread 15.25 -.25 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -2.75 -.25 basis point
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  74.75 -3.0 basis points
  • IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 75.5 +.25 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 62.86 -.05%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .03% -1.0 basis point
  • Yield Curve 117.0 -1.0 basis point
  • China Iron Ore Spot 168.9 USD/Metric Tonne +1.45%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 79.8 +2.1 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 132.9 -1.7 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 64.2 -1.5 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.18 -4.0 basis points
  • 100.0% chance of no change at April 28th meeting, 100.0% chance of no change at June 16th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -161 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -67 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +35 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Lower: On losses in my biotech/energy/industrial/tech sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 100% Net Long

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