Wednesday, February 17, 2021

Stocks Reversing Slightly Higher into Close on Stimulus Hopes, Oil Gain, Technical Buying, Energy/Financial Sector Strength

 Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Declining
  • Volume: Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 22.2 +3.6%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 2,910.0 -13.0 points
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 131.87 -.68%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.74+1.35%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 53.69 +2.75%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 136.0 +16.0 points
  • Total Put/Call .73 -5.19%
  • NYSE Arms .87 +27.9%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 50.36 -.22%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 488.29 -.04%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 57.91 +.71%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 95.5 +4.75 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 57.18 +.89%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 165.14 +1.1%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 185.55 +.15%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 9.25 -.25 basis point
  • TED Spread 15.5 -.75 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -3.0 -3.0 basis points
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  77.75 +5.0 basis points
  • IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 75.25 -.5 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 62.91 -.24%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .04% unch.
  • Yield Curve 118.0 -2.0 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 167.5 USD/Metric Tonne +.35%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 77.70 +28.8 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 134.6 -2.3 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 65.7 +1.9 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.22 unch.
  • 100.0% chance of no change at April 28th meeting, 100.0% chance of no change at June 16th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +132 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +405 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +45 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher: On gains in my biotech/energy/industrial sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long

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