Thursday, February 04, 2021

Stocks Rising into Final Hour on Vaccine Optimism, Less European/Emerging Market/US High-Yld Debt Angst, Oil Gain, Financial/Transport Sector Strength

 Broad Equity Market Tone:

  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  • Volume: Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 23.2 -9.2%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 2,217.0 +96.0 points
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 130.56 -.15%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.1 -.59%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 53.0 +4.9%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 130.0 -11.0 points
  • Total Put/Call .67 -20.2%
  • NYSE Arms 1.47 +101.3%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 51.50 -2.28%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 493.68 -1.14%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 57.72 -2.56%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 100.0 -5.0 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 59.69 -.32%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 158.30 -2.07%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 185.72 +.08%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 8.75 +.25 basis point
  • TED Spread 15.25 unch.
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -4.5 unch.
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  66.0 -.25 basis point
  • IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 74.5 -.25 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 62.22 -.34%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .03% -1.0 basis point
  • Yield Curve 102.0 +.5 basis point
  • China Iron Ore Spot 152.40 USD/Metric Tonne +4.67%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 71.60 +3.9 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 147.4 +3.5 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 65.60 -1.8 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.17 unch.
  • 100.0% chance of no change at April 28th meeting, 100.0% chance of no change at June 16th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +254 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -94 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +25 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher: On gains in my energy/tech/industrial/biotech/medical sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long

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