Tuesday, February 09, 2021

Stocks Rising into Final Hour on Stimulus Hopes, Dollar Weakness, Oil Gain, Tech/Alt Energy Sector Strength

 Broad Equity Market Tone:

  • Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  • Volume: Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 21.3 +.4%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 2,451.0 +42.0 points
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 131.01 -.12%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.91 +.41%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 52.9 +2.3%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 126.0 -23.0 points
  • Total Put/Call .62 -8.8%
  • NYSE Arms 1.54 +45.3%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 50.62 +.62%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 505.29 unch.
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 58.05 +.58%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 96.0 +.75 basis point
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 57.53 -.64%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 161.37 +2.52%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 185.17 -.07%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 8.75 -.75 basis point
  • TED Spread 16.5 -.5 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -.75 +3.0 basis points
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  65.0 +1.25 basis points
  • IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 75.75 +.25 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 62.76 +.15%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .03% +1.0 basis point
  • Yield Curve 105.0 -3.0 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 158.0 USD/Metric Tonne -.35%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 72.90 +.8 point
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 142.2 -.5 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 65.10 +.7 point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.21 +1.0 basis point
  • 100.0% chance of no change at April 28th meeting, 100.0% chance of no change at June 16th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -40 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -20 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +10 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher: On gains in my industrial/tech sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long

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