Stocks Rising into Afternoon on Stimulus Hopes, Oil Gain, Short-Covering, Energy/Homebuilding Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  

• Volume: Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 21.6 +3.6%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 2,368.0 +6.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 131.16 -.17%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.91 -.50%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 52.75 +.74%

• ISE Sentiment Index 153.0 +42.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .64 -13.5%

• NYSE Arms 1.21 +24.7%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 50.22 -1.50%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 508.36 -.88%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 57.68 -.03%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 95.25 -3.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 57.87 -1.67%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 156.88 +.51%
  

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 185.30 -.13%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 9.5 +.25 basis point

• TED Spread 17.0 +.25 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -3.75 +.75 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  63.75 +1.0 basis point
  
• IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 75.5 unch.

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 62.63 +.08%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .02% unch.
  

• Yield Curve 108.0 +2.0 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 155.0 USD/Metric Tonne +2.7%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 72.10 +.9 point

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 142.7 -3.0 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 64.40 -1.0 point

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.20 +1.0 basis point
• 100.0% chance of no change at April 28th meeting, 100.0% chance of no change at June 16th meeting

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +77 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -97 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -8 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my energy/industrial/biotech/medical sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades: None
  

• Market Exposure: 100% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

 Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth +.1%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Restaurants -1.0% 2) Utilities -.8% 3) Road & Rail -.4%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• UPLD, ONTO, GOEV, WWE, CLII, TENB, SBAC, LBRT, ZI, SILK, PINS, OSPN, CCIV, LASR, COLM, CAH, TGTX, CLOV, CRMD, ENV, DNB, AKTS, GME, IEA, MKSI, PENN, SGEN, CRNC and STIM
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) ANGI 2) COTY 3) MOS 4) EWW 5) TTWO
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) HUYA 2) PROG 3) CLOV 4) LBRT 5) LENN
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Value +1.9%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Airlines +3.9% 2) Energy +3.7% 3) Homebuilders +2.8%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• OCGN, SAVA, SNPR, MARA, CLNE, RIOT, VERU, XONE, MVIS, CVLB, SMMT, MSTR, NPA,TDC, VIH, TRHC, DVAX, COHR, MWK, AMG, AVXL, HOL, SI, DCRB, PRCH, TFFP, AVRO, AVID, CUB, ATHA, CLVS, EXPI, TWST, ANGI, SQ, VCYT, SPRO, ASPN, ONDS, TEX, AMKR, GHVI, GBX, FTOC, CCS, APPH, REKR
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) RSX 2) REI 3) REKR 4) HA 5) ANGI

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) PLTR 2) QURE 3) TGT 4) TSCO 5) MGM
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +3.2% Above 100-Day Average 
• 7 Sectors Rising, 4 Sectors Declining
• 70.6% of Issues Advancing, 27.1% Declining
• 338 New 52-Week Highs, 0 New Lows
• 85.5% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 52.4% 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 2,380.0 +16.0 points
• Vix 21.6 +3.7%
• Total Put/Call .64 -13.5%
• TRIN/Arms 1.16 +19.6%

Monday Watch

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg: 

• Khamenei Says U.S. Has to Act First to End Iran Nuclear Deadlock.
• Germany’s Scholz Calls for Spending Boost in Bid for Chancellor.  
• Even Europe’s Draghi-Led Market Euphoria Can’t Buoy the Euro.
  
• China Issues Final Monopoly Regulations for Internet Sector.  
• Most Porsche Sales to Be Electric Cars by 2030: Bild.  
• Global Cases Ease; Biden Warns on Immunity: Virus Update.
• Israel Won’t Reach Covid-19 Immunity Even If All Adults Jabbed.    
• U.S. Stock Futures Extend Gains After Record High: Markets Wrap.
• Saudi Arabian Shares Lead Gulf Gains on Oil, Earnings: Inside EM.   
• Brent Oil Extends Advance Toward $60 on Tightening Global Supply.
• Big Oil Stocks Rally Despite Democrats’ Fossil-Fuel Stance.
• Flash Loans Are Providing Instant Cash to Crypto Speculators.
• Reddit’s Populist Stock Movement Was 15 Years in the Making.
  
• Apple Supplier Dialog Semi Holds Talks With Suitors Including Renesas.  
• U.S. Pupils in Online-School Limbo as Teachers Threaten Strikes.  
• Yellen Sees Full Employment Next Year With Biden’s Stimulus Plan.
• Yellen, Summers Spar About Overheating Risk in Stimulus Plan.
• Hyundai, Kia Say Not in Car Development Talks With Apple.
• Renesas Confirms Talks to Buy Apple-Supplier Dialog Semi.

Wall Street Journal:

• Biden Tests the Adage ‘The Customer Is Always Right’.
• Tighter Oil Supplies Inject Momentum Into Price Rally.
• Covid-19 Is Likely Here to Stay.
• Woke Capital’s Political Warning.
• Super Bowl Ads Go for Comedic Catharsis.
• Pandemic Makes Big Tech Even Bigger.
• Mediocrity Is Now Mandatory.
• Wrong Stimulus, Wrong Time.
• As Biden Decides What to Do With Border Wall, Landowners Are in Limbo.
• China Battles West for Control of Vital Technology Standards.

Fox News:

• Governor ends state's mask mandate, gathering limits.
• Liz Cheney responds to state GOP calls for her to resign in exclusive Chris Wallace interview.
• Antifa activists issue threats in DC, draw police response.
• New 'Squad' member under fire for defending violent jail uprising after condemning Capitol mayhem.
• Biden admin plans to stop deporting immigrants convicted of some crimes, limit arrests at border.

CNBC: 

• Retailers see sales rebounding—eventually. Europe’s murky outlook may snag growth.
• U.S. must lift sanctions before Iran rejoins nuclear deal, Khamenei says.
• Top analysts like these stocks the most amid a turbulent start to 2021.
• Biden suspends Trump asylum deals with El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras.
• U.K coronavirus strain is doubling in the U.S. every 10 days, study finds.

Zero Hedge: 

• "This Is The Wildest Market I've Ever Seen": Druckenmiller's Must-See Goldman Interview.
• Fossil Fuels Aren't Going Anywhere.
• "The Post-U.S. Era Has Started": Iran's Ayatollah Blasts Biden For Refusing To Lift Sanctions.
• Hedge Fund CIO: "I Didn’t Realize How Many People Understand The Extent Of The Fed Market Manipulation".
• Renaissance Hit With $5 Billion In Redemptions After "Terrible" Returns.
• Mob Threatens Arson During 'F*ck The Police' March In DC.
• "There Is No Modern Precedent": American Murder Rate Soars 30% In 2020.
• Trump Lawyers To Use Videos Of Democrats Inciting Violence During Impeachment Defense.
• America's Lost Decade In Fertility Results In 5.8 Million Fewer Babies.
• Why Are So Many Americans Stockpiling Guns, Silver, & Food Right Now?
• When (Or If) Comes The Pushback?
• Monetary Policy Is Pushing Americans, Kicking And Screaming, Up The Risk Curve.
• "A Wake-Up Call" - AstraZeneca Jab Fails To Prevent Mutated COVID Strain From South Africa.
• "Is There Even A French COVID Strategy?" - Voters Furious With Macron's Pandemic Response.
• Goldman: Does Valuation Still Matter?
• Super Bowl LV Ticket Prices Halved Amid Virus Fears.
• Biden To Reverse Trump's Terror Designation Of Yemen's Houthis.
• Commodities Are Soaring 25%: That's Consistent With Headline Inflation Of Almost 4%.

MarketWatch.com:      

• All of President Biden’s key executive orders — in one chart.
  

NewsMax:

• Stephen Moore: Biden Policies 'Put America Last'.
• Iran Demands Biden Lift Sanctions or No Nuclear Deal.
• Yellen: Americans Earning $60K Should Get Stimulus Checks.
• Wyoming Republicans Vote to Censure Liz Cheney.
• Senior Dems Plan $3K Per Child Stimulus Starting July.
• Sen. Wicker: Biden Botched Two Chances To Unite Nation.

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• Fact-Checking the Phony Fact-Checkers: The Gateway Pundit’s Explosive Michigan, TCF Center Reporting ABSOLUTELY Shows Voter Fraud.
• 13% Liz Cheney Says 91% President Trump “Does NOT have a Role as a Leader of Our Party Moving Forward” (VIDEO).
• “Burn it Down!” – BLM-Antifa March Through DC, Assault Police Officers, Harass Outdoor Diners (VIDEO).
• Study: Support for Socialism Sinks After 2020 Election, Hits Lowest Level in Years.
• Law Professor Creates Website To Track Far Left Critical Race Training At American Colleges And Universities.
• It’s Been One Month to the Day and Americans Still Don’t Know Who Shot and Killed Ashli Babbitt.
• That Didn’t Take Long: US Borders Wide Open – Fake Asylum Seekers Walk Across Border and Are Immediately Released (VIDEO).
• Gateway Pundit Suspended Indefinitely from Twitter After Announcing More Video of TCF Center Fraud Will Be Released in Coming Days.
• Mike Lindell to Bannon War Room: “Absolute Truth” Film Was Seen by Over 10 Million People After Friday Release – Five Million Completed the Film.
• Big Tech Purge Contines: Twitter Suspends Conservative Radio Host Wayne Root.

The Epoch Times:

• Wuhan Residents Remember COVID-19 ‘Whistleblower’ Doctor a Year After His Death. 
• Virus Outbreak Continues to Worsen in China’s Harbin City as Mass Lockdowns Cause Anxiety.

HereIsTheEvidence.com:

• This is for aggregating publicly available items of voter fraud evidence in the US election that would be admissible in court.

Digital Blackboard:

• Daily New Cases by Region.

Worldometer:

• New Cases/Deaths by state.

Rt Covid-19:

• How fast virus is growing by state.

KFF:

• State Data(Tests/Hospitalizations).

Night Trading

• Asian indices are +.25% to +.75% on average.
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 58.5 -.5 basis point.
• China Sovereign CDS 29.0 -.75 basis point.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 62.59 +.02%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 2,404.0 +42.0 points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 26.60 -.19%. 
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.69%.
• S&P 500 futures +.37%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures +.43%

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note

Company/Estimate

Before the Open:

• (AMG)/3.68
• (DNB)/.26
• (CNA)/1.00
• (GPN)/1.76
• (HAS)/1.14

After the Close:

• (CHGG)/.41
• (SPG)/2.24
• (TTWO)/.95
  

Economic Releases

• None of note

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The (HQY) year-end sales conference call could also impact trading today.

Market Hours
Normal:

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by commodity and transport shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to maintain gains into the afternoon.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the week.

Today's Headlines

 Bloomberg:       

• Frothy Markets Spark Worries of Bubbles in European Assets.
• BofA Divided as Bankers Cry Foul Over Special Bonus Treatment.  
• Robinhood’s Collateral-Crunch Explanation Puzzles Wall Street.  
• Day Traders Have a Troubled Track Record of Stock Picking.  
• Experts Urge Super Bowl Caution as Outbreak Slows: Virus Update.
• Chronic Covid-19 and Convalescent Plasma May Boost Mutation Risk.  
• Biden Gives His Drive for Stimulus Package a Personal Touch.  
• Epstein Accusers Seek to Freeze Estate Assets as Money Runs Low.  
• Goldman Commodities Strategist Says Silver Is the Populist Metal.  
• Death Threats and Hate Force Hedge Funds to Step Up Security.

 Wall Street Journal:

• Pandemic Makes Big Tech Even Bigger.
• Floating Wind Turbines Buoy Hopes of Expanding Renewable Energy.
• Wrong Stimulus, Wrong Time.
• Everyone Wants Sushi to Go, and It’s Saving Some Restaurants.
• The Battery Is Ready to Power the World.

CNBC:

• Handicapping the market’s upside from here as stocks run up the score on bonds, stretch valuations.
• More bubbles, less shorting. What the GameStop craziness could mean for the future of investing.
• ‘Markets are on a vodka-Red Bull’: Behavioral investing analyst’s 3 concerns for Reddit traders.

IG:

• Weekend Markets Trading Live.

Barron's:

• Had bullish commentary on (LLY), (BIIB), (CASY), (HLT) and (AMZN).

MarketWatch.com:       

• The SEC could cripple Robinhood’s business model by enforcing existing rules, experts say.  
• More companies than usual are beating earnings estimates — and sales numbers are just as bullish for the stock market.  
• These S&P 500 stocks have had the biggest increases in ‘buy’ ratings so far this year.

Fox News:

• Hawley’s wife takes action after protesters targeted couple’s home.
• JASON RANTZ:: Here's how Antifa uses Twitter to threaten the media.

Newsmax:

• Dobbs Retweeting Supporters After Cancellation.
• Trump Returns to Social Media With Gab Post.
  

Zero Hedge: 

• DoubleLine Warns Events Are In Motion To Remove Dollar As Reserve Currency.
• Minimum Wage? Self-Service Pays $0 Per Hour... With Absolutely No Benefits.
• Supreme Court Strikes Down California Indoor Worship Ban.
• Fed Efforts To Stem Rises In Yields Are Back On The Table.
• "Mind-Boggling Liquidity": Nobody Is Paying Attention To The $1.1 Trillion Flood About To Hit Markets.
• Lincoln Project Co-Founder Resigns Amid Weaver's "Grotesque, Sickening" Behavior.
• CDC And TSA Form Federal Mask Police... And Enforcement Is Up To Officer Discretion.
• Wall Street Wins Again As GameStop Becomes Game Over.
• "This Is For You, Dad": Interview With An Anonymous GameStop Investor.
• Trump Jr.: "Here's What Comes Next for Our Amazing Movement".
• Northeast Braces For Sunday Winter Storm Followed By Arctic Blast.
• Trump Says Lou Dobbs "Is & Was Great" After Fox News Cancels '#1 Business News' Show.
• All Hail The Conquering Central Bankers... Or Else.
• Norway's Race To Electrify Economy Sends Power Use To Record High.
• The Rapidly Failing EU.
• Greta Thunberg Triggers Criminal Investigation In India After Twitter Debacle.
• During Pandemic, China Sent Millions Of Counterfeit Masks, Test Kits To US: Customs Data.
• House Impeachment Brief Against Trump Threatens Freedom Of Speech Of All Americans: Dershowitz.
• "No Room For Debate": Beijing Imposes Sweeping Pro-China Curriculum On Hong Kong Schools.
• Biggest Gun Control Bill In History Targets The Poor, Will Make Millions Of Felons Overnight.
  

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• “The FBI Never Did Anything Other Than to Impede Investigations into Election Fraud” – Colonel Phil Waldron on the FBI’s Actions During the 2020 Election.
• IGNORED BY THE MEDIA ELITES AND FBI: List of 20 Individuals at the Capitol on January 6th – All Appear to be Connected to Antifa or Far Left Groups.
• AP Poll: 65% Of Republicans Say Biden Was Not Legitimately Elected.
• Confirmed: Obama’s ‘Ethics Czar’ Led the ‘Color Revolution’ Behind the 2020 US Election and Then Bragged About It.
• Liz Cheney a No Show as Wyoming Republicans Censure the Never-Trump Republican.
• HUGE! Top Democrat Elections Attorney Marc Elias Agrees With Republicans that Voting Machines Are Unreliable and Invalid.
• Dominion Lawyer Says They ‘Warned’ OAN Not to Air Mike Lindell Doc.
• “The Party Is Still His”- Marjorie Taylor Greene Says What The Establishment Doesn’t Want To Hear.
• The Board of Supervisors of Maricopa County May Soon Face Arrest as Arizona Senate Fast Tracks Their Contempt Vote.
• Breaking: US Supreme Court Schedules Pennsylvania Election Case, Sidney Powell’s Michigan Case and Lin Wood’s Georgia Case for Feb 19 Conference.

The Epoch Times:

• White House Appears to Confirm Hunter Biden Still Holds Stake in Chinese Private Equity Firm.
• Blinken Presses China on Human Rights Abuses in First Call with Chinese Diplomat.

HereIsTheEvidence.com:

• This is for aggregating publicly available items of voter fraud evidence in the US election that would be admissible in court.
  

Digital Blackboard:

• Daily New Cases by Region.

Worldometer:

• New Cases/Deaths by state.

Rt Covid-19:

• How fast virus is growing by state.

KFF:

• State Data(Tests/Hospitalizations).