Wednesday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:          

• Here Are the Winners and Losers From China’s Surging Yuan.
• Malaysia to Protest ‘Suspicious’ Intrusion by Chinese Air Force.  
• Korea Inflation Hits Highest Since 2012 As Economy Recovers.
• Asian Stocks Steady at Open After Mixed U.S. Data: Markets Wrap.  
• Oil Extends Gain From 2018 High With Saudis Upbeat on Demand.  
• American Travel Spree Proves Market Right to Be Bullish on Oil.
• Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day.
• JBS Says ‘Vast Majority’ of Plants Will Be Operational Wednesday.  
• Lazard CEO Says Remote Work Damages Prospects for Young Bankers.  
• Leon Black Sued by Woman Who Alleges Defamation, Sexual Violence.  
• Buy High, Sell Higher: Mudrick's Savvy Trade on AMC Stock Frenzy.

Wall Street Journal:

• The Southwest Is America’s New Factory Hub. ‘Cranes Everywhere.’
• Oil Price Hits Two-Year High as OPEC Sees More Demand.
• Europe Catches the Inflation Bug.
• Business Travel Starts to Make a Comeback.
• NIH Starts Testing Mixing and Matching Booster Shots.
• Biden Administration Suspends Oil Leases in Arctic Refuge.
• SPAC Pullback Pressures Creators.

Fox News:

• Cities run red with blood over Memorial Day weekend.
  

CNBC.com:

• Mudrick Capital bought 8.5 million shares of AMC, then reportedly sold them off for a profit.
• LinkedIn spinout Confluent files for IPO, with annualized revenue of over $300 million.
• Biden’s proposed 39.6% top tax rate would apply at these income levels.
• Zoom reports blowout earnings but warns of a coming slowdown.
• Oil demand will reach pre-pandemic levels in mid-2022, analyst says.
• Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: Zoom, Hewlett Packard Enterprise, Ambarella & more.

MarketWatch.com:         

• HPE reports results top estimates, raises full-year earnings outlook.
  
• SEC says Tesla’s Elon Musk has twice violated court order with his tweets.
  
• A huge day for meme stocks sees Mudrick reportedly dump AMC stock, and Roaring Kitty returns to rally GameStop die-hards.
  
• Want to get in on the hot energy sector? Wall Street favors these 20 stocks that could gain up to 40%.

Zero Hedge:

• Fauci Emails Reveal Damage Control Scramble After ZeroHedge Spotlights Man-Made COVID-19 Theory.
• JBS Shutters All US Meat Plants As Cyber Attack Jeopardizes Food Supply.
• 'So Sue Us': Amazon Responds To 75,000 Customers Who Say Alexa Spied On Them.
• MLB, Players Union Hit With Lawsuit For Moving All-Star Game Out Of Atlanta.
• The Social Decay That Is Eating Away At America Like A Cancer Is Visible All Around Us.
• Tennessee Will Explore The Possibility Of A State Gold Depository.
• Washington Post Becomes Latest Media Outlet To Walk Back "Debunked Conspiracy Theory" Wuhan Lab Leak Coverage.
• Mothers Of Tamir Rice, Breonna Taylor Criticize Black Lives Matter: "Benefitting Off The Blood Of Our Loved Ones".
• Lira Craters To Record Low After Erdogan Orders Central Bank To Slow Inflation By Cutting Rates.
• 117 Employees File Lawsuit Against Texas Hospital For Mandating COVID-19 Vaccine.
• Nasdaq Dips, Russell Rips As Tail-Risk Insurance Costs Soar.

Newsmax:

• Gordon Chang to Newsmax: Biden COVID Report May Conceal US Complicity.
  

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• Joe Biden Appoints Kamala Harris to Lead White House Efforts on Voting Rights – Making it Easier For Democrats to Steal Elections.
• WATCH: Biden Absurdly Claims ‘White Supremacy’ is Bigger Terrorism Threat Than ISIS or Al Qaeda.
• China State Media Says Country Must Prepare for Nuclear War After Biden Agrees to Watered-Down Covid Probe.
• Woke Navy Brass Looking to Rename “Offensive” Antietam Cruiser – Named After Civil War Union Victory that Led to Lincoln’s Emancipation Proclamation.
• America the Outlier: Voter Photo IDs Are the Rule in Europe and Elsewhere.

The Epoch Times: 

• Despite Opposition, Cornell Approves Partnership With CCP-Controlled Peking University.

Digital Blackboard:

• Daily New Cases by Region.

Worldometer:

• New Cases/Deaths by state.

Rt Covid-19:

• How fast virus is growing by state.

KFF:

• State Data(Tests/Hospitalizations).

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are unch. to +.5% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 85.75 -.25 basis point.

• China Sovereign CDS 37.0 unch.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 61.44 -.12%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 3,468.0 -2.0 points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 21.2 -1.0%.
• FTSE 100 futures -.01%.

• S&P 500 futures +.05%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.03%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• (AAP)/3.08
• (CCL)/-1.61
• (DCI)/.58
  

After the Close:

• (AI)/-.27
• (JEF)/.95
• (NTAP)/1.12
• (PVH)/.83
• (SMTC)/.52
• (SPTN)/.54
• (SPLK)-.70
  

Economic Releases

2:00 pm EST

• US Fed Beige Book release.

Afternoon:

• Wards Total Vehicle Sales for May is estimated to fall to 17.4M versus 18.51M in April.

Upcoming Splits

• (NEOG) 2-for-1
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Australia GDP report, weekly US retail sales reports, weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report, Stifel Jaws/Paws Conference, RBC Consumer/Retail Conference, Wells Fargo Energy Conerence, Bernstein Strategic Decisions Conference, Credit Suisse Chemicals/Ag/Packaging/Cement Conference and the (TOL) analyst/investor day could also impact global trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by commodity and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Slightly Higher into Final Hour on Economic Optimism, Dovish Fed Commentary, Oil Gain, Commodity/Consumer Discretionary Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed
  

• Volume: Above Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 18.2 +8.7%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 3,446.0 -43.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 138.27 -.13%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.1 -.9%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 47.9 +2.3%

• ISE Sentiment Index 118.0  +7.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .63 -12.5%

• NYSE Arms .55 -65.2%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 50.70 -1.3%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 428.48 -1.6%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 57.40 -1.8%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 108.0 -2.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 86.08 +.45%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 158.05 -1.3%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KCCB) 39.29 -.15%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 8.75 +.25 basis point

• TED Spread 12.5 -.25 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -1.5 -.5 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  63.5 +1.25 basis points
  
• IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 72.0 +.25 basis point
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 61.53 +.08%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .01% unch.
  

• Yield Curve 147.0 unch.
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 198.80 USD/Metric Tonne +6.6%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 8.8 +4.4 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 156.40 +1.7 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 59.90 +5.9 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.47 +2.0 basis points
• 93.0% chance of no change at Sept. 22nd meeting, 93.0% chance of no change at Nov. 3rd meeting

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +21 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +65 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +33 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my technology/commodity/industrial sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

 Style Underperformer:

• Mid-Cap Growth -.4%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Medical Equipment -1.9% 2) Pharma -1.5% 3) Healthcare -.9%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• GPS, LH, KIRK, DHR, TMO, EAT, MHK, IVZ, BYND, QDEL, RRGB, ABT, MUDS and IMVT
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) CLDR 2) WPG 3) VTNR 4) ABT 5) MJ
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) ABT 2) RENN 3) NWSA 4) FFIV 5) DNMR
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Value +1.5%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Oil Service +4.3% 2) Steel +3.6% 3) Energy +3.4%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• CLDR, AMC, TEN, LE, DVN, MRO, LPI, SM, CAL, CPE, EPR, APA, OVV, RRC, SRG, OXY, FANG, NUE, CNK, SCHN, CALM, MGY, AR, CCRN, FOCS, ABNB, CRC, AMR, INT, COF and BCEI
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) AYRO 2) CLDR 3) WPG 4) HWM 5) ABT

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) DVN 2) NIO 3) RBLX 4) PWR 5) BA
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +11.5% Above 100-Day Average 
• 8 Sectors Rising, 3 Sectors Declining
• 68.0% of Issues Advancing, 27.9% Declining
• 341 New 52-Week Highs, 14 New Lows
• 88.3% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 52.2%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 3,465.0 -13.0 points
• Vix 18.0 +7.5%
• Total Put/Call .61 -15.3%
• TRIN/Arms .63 -60.1%

Tuesday Watch

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:                

• China Takes Its Most Visible Measure Yet to Curb Yuan’s Gain.
• Why China Is Struggling to Boost Its Birthrate.
• China Bets on Productivity Over Population to Drive Its Economy.  
• India Posts Record Fiscal Gap Amid Spending to Cushion Economy.
• ECB Spectrometer Suggests Ultra-Loose Policy Continuing.  
• German Inflation Climbs to Highest Since 2018 as Lockdown Eases.  
• Asian Stocks Look Set to Dip; Yuan Holds Retreat: Markets Wrap. 
• Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day.
• Asia Refiners Face a Double Blow to Profits from Iran and Covid.  
• Peru Deaths More Than Double; Copa America Moved: Virus Update.
• Iran and World Powers Begin ‘Final Round’ of Nuclear Talks.
• Oil Exceeds $67 as Demand Outweighs Prospect of More OPEC+ Oil.   
• Hedge Funds Keep Cutting Their Bullish Wagers on Commodities.  
• Meat Is Latest Cyber Victim as Hackers Hit Top Supplier JBS.

Wall Street Journal:

• Reopening Bets Pay Off Big for Stock Pickers.
• West Virginia Governor Is Personally Liable for $700 Million in Greensill Loans.
• Battle Brews Over Banning Natural Gas to Homes.
• ‘Open-Air Effect’ Gave Southern States Break From Covid-19 Surge.
• Flush With Cash, Startups Move to Hire CFOs Earlier.
• Male Inmates in Women’s Prisons.
• For DoorDash and Uber Eats, the Future Is Everything in an Hour.

Fox News:

• Army Staff Sgt. charges 100 insurgents to save team; among stories of sacrifice.
• Surging prices may only be beginning; where you're going to feel the squeeze.
• MLB, players' union face lawsuit for pulling game out of Atlanta.

CNBC:  

• OECD raises growth forecasts on vaccine rollouts and U.S. stimulus.
• U.S. Covid cases near pandemic low as travel picks up for Memorial Day weekend.
• Millions of Americans could face eviction as housing protection expires in June.
• Russia tells U.S. to expect ‘uncomfortable’ signals ahead of Putin-Biden summit.
• Buttigieg says infrastructure talks ‘can’t go on forever,’ calls for ‘clear direction’ by next week.

Zero Hedge: 

• Veterans Speak About Memorial Day: "It's Not About Us". 
• 61-Year-Old Woman Living Near Wuhan Lab May Have Been 'Patient Zero' - Three Weeks Before CCP Claims First Case.
• Rep. McCaul Calls COVID Virus Origin "Worst Cover-Up In Human History".
• Intel CEO Pat Gelsinger Says Semi Shortage Could Last "A Couple Years".
• China Orders First Lockdown Since January As Indian Mutant Discovered In Guangzhou.
• Russia Monitoring Biden's "Persecution" Of Capitol Hill Rioters & Their "Opposition Rights".
• Japan Asks Olympics Fans For COVID Tests; No Eating, Drinking, Cheering At Games.
• Rabobank: The US And China Can No Longer Both Blow Bubbles At The Same Time.
• With Delegitimized Government Looming, Honor This Memorial Day Differently.
• In Less Than Two Weeks, Millions Of Americans Will Lose Unemployment Benefits.
• The Worst-Kept Secret in America: High Inflation Is Back.
• Texas Democrats Walk Out Of House Chamber To Block Voting Law.
• Spoos Hug 4,200 In Thin Holiday Trading As Global Stocks Close Out 4th Month Of Gains.
• Founder Of Black Lives Matter Chapter Quits After Learning the "Ugly Truth".
• Currency Wars Return: China Hikes FX Reserve Ratio For First Time In 14 Years In Bid To Weaken Yuan.
• China Allows Families To Have Up To 3 Children Amid Dramatic Drop In Birth Rates.
• Elon Musk Assures Teslas "Still Have Safety Features", After Losing Key Industry Designations Last Week.
• EM - feeling the commodity bull?
• New COVID-19 Alarm Bells In The UK - Ridiculous Or Not?
• China Scrambles To Save EU Investment Deal After Xi's Hardline Diplomacy "Backfires".
• German Judge Declares Mask Mandates Illegal And Harmful To Children.
• "We Are Going To Expose You": Crenshaw, Cotton Create Military Whistleblower Site To Combat 'Woke Ideology'.
• Netanyahu Faces Shocking Ouster After Israeli Opposition Reaches Deal To Form Government. 
• COT Primer: The Gold Trend Is Still Very Favorable.
• CLOs Join The Everything Bubble.

MarketWatch.com:

• German prices rise faster-than-expected in May.  
• Hiring signs are everywhere, but Wall Street isn’t betting on huge job gains in May.
  
• 5 surprising things in short supply this Memorial Day Weekend.
  

NewsMax:   

• Texas Gov. Abbott: Election Integrity Reform 'STILL Must Pass'.
• Trump: 'We Owe All That We Are' to Fallen Military Heroes.
• NC Lt. Gov. Robinson: Critical Race Theory Mirrors Ku Klux Klan.

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• Biden Imported Oil from Iran in March – First Time Since 1991- Ignoring US Law to Please Terrorist Country.
• Fulton County Georgia Ballot Storage Facility Was Left Open for Hours – Attorney’s Own Hired Staff Discovered the Place Wide Open.
• HORROR! EXCLUSIVE VIDEO — CAPITOL POLICE FIRED EXPLODING FLASH GRENADE INTO CROWD on Jan. 6 — Explosion Fired into Crowd of Men, Women and Children!
• Happy Memorial Day 2021 – Freedom Still Isn’t Free.
• 7,300 People Tune in to White House YouTube Channel to Watch 81 Million Vote Recipient Joe Biden Deliver Memorial Day Service Remarks.
• The Auditors of the Windham, New Hampshire 2020 Election Results Audit Invited the President of the Voting Machine Company to the Audit – Why?

The Epoch Times:

• Lab Leaks Happen ‘All the Time’ Warns Former FDA Commissioner, Calls for Probe Into Virus Origin.
• Rep. McCaul Calls CCP Virus Origin ‘Worst Cover-Up In Human History’.
• Wall Street Has Officially Thrown In Its Lot With Beijing. 
• Former Chinese Tycoon Fully Withdraws From AMC in $1.476 Billion Stock Liquidation.
• Pompeo and Sen. Paul Issue Warning on Wuhan Lab Still ‘Up and Running’.

Digital Blackboard:

• Daily New Cases by Region.

Worldometer:

• New Cases/Deaths by state.

Rt Covid-19:

• How fast virus is growing by state.

KFF:

• State Data(Tests/Hospitalizations).

Night Trading

• Asian indices are -.25% to +.25% on average.
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 86.0 +.25 basis point.
• China Sovereign CDS 37.0 +.25 basis point.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 61.50 +.01%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 3,467.0 -22.0 points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 20.9 +.24%. 
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.23%.
• S&P 500 futures -.04%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures -.03%

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note

Company/Estimate

Before the Open:

• (MIK)/.32
  

After the Close:

• (AMBA)/.17
• (HPE)/.42
• (ZM)/.98
  

Economic Releases

10:00 am EST

• Construction Spending MoM for April is estimated to rise +.5% versus a +.2% gain in March.
• ISM Manufacturing for May is estimated to rise to 60.9 versus 60.7 in April. 
• ISM Prices Paid for May is estimated to fall to 89.3 versus 89.6 in April.
  

10:30 am EST

• Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity for May is estimated to fall to 36.5 versus 37.3 in April.

Upcoming Splits

• (NEOG) 2-for-1
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The China Manufacturing PMI report, Eurozone PMI report, RBA minutes, Deutsche Bank Financial Services Conference, Jefferies Healthcare Conference, William Blair Growth Stock Conference, Cowen Tech/Media/Telecom Conference and the KeyBanc Industrials/Basic Materials Conference could also impact trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by consumer and healthcare shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the week.