Tuesday, June 01, 2021

Stocks Slightly Higher into Final Hour on Economic Optimism, Dovish Fed Commentary, Oil Gain, Commodity/Consumer Discretionary Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume: Above Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 18.2 +8.7%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 3,446.0 -43.0 points
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 138.27 -.13%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.1 -.9%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 47.9 +2.3%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 118.0  +7.0 points
  • Total Put/Call .63 -12.5%
  • NYSE Arms .55 -65.2%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 50.70 -1.3%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 428.48 -1.6%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 57.40 -1.8%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 108.0 -2.0 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 86.08 +.45%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 158.05 -1.3%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KCCB) 39.29 -.15%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 8.75 +.25 basis point
  • TED Spread 12.5 -.25 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -1.5 -.5 basis point
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  63.5 +1.25 basis points
  • IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 72.0 +.25 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 61.53 +.08%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .01% unch.
  • Yield Curve 147.0 unch.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 198.80 USD/Metric Tonne +6.6%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 8.8 +4.4 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 156.40 +1.7 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 59.90 +5.9 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.47 +2.0 basis points
  • 93.0% chance of no change at Sept. 22nd meeting, 93.0% chance of no change at Nov. 3rd meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +21 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +65 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +33 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher: On gains in my technology/commodity/industrial sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long

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