Thursday, June 17, 2021

Stocks Reversing Slightly Higher into Afternoon on Diminished Fed Taper Worries, Falling Inflation Fears, Multiple Expansion, Tech/Homebuilding Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Declining
  • Volume: Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 18.9 +4.2%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 3,142.0 -61.0 points
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 135.55 -1.2%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.0 +3.8%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 36.8 +3.5%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 114.0  -33.0 points
  • Total Put/Call .81 -15.6%
  • NYSE Arms 1.48 +37.0%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 49.53 +.53%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 394.60 +1.8%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 55.10 +.7%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 101.0 -2.0 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 84.43 +.93%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 155.63 +.51%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KCCB) 39.1 -.14%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 7.25 -.25 basis point
  • TED Spread 9.5 -1.0 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -3.25 +.25 basis point
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  71.25 -.25 basis point
  • IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 74.0 -.75 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 60.68 -.66%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .03% -1.0 basis point
  • Yield Curve 137.0 +4.0 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 207.25 USD/Metric Tonne +.5%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 44.5 -.4 point
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 120.40 +1.0 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 79.0 -.2 point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.24 -10.0 basis points
  • 100.0% chance of no change at Nov. 3rd meeting, 100.0% chance of no change at Dec. 15th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +97 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -54 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +2 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Lower: On losses in my commodity/industrial sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long

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