Tuesday, June 15, 2021

Stocks Lower into Afternoon on Fed Taper Fears, Inflation Concerns, Valuation Worries, Tech/Biotech Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Declining
  • Volume: Below Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 17.0 +3.7%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 3,344.0 -14.0 points
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 137.90 +.05%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.6 unch.
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 47.0 -1.2%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 152.0  +21.0 points
  • Total Put/Call .68 -4.2%
  • NYSE Arms 1.23 -18.0%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 48.9 +.61%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 325.11 -.10%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 55.11 +.09%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 102.0 -3.0 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 82.93 +.05%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 152.90 +1.31%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KCCB) 39.15 unch.
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 7.75 +1.0 basis point
  • TED Spread 10.75 unch.
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -3.25 -.25 basis point
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  70.75 +1.75 basis points
  • IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 74.75 -.5 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 61.36 -.46%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .01% -1.0 basis point
  • Yield Curve 133.0 +1.0 basis point
  • China Iron Ore Spot 209.50 USD/Metric Tonne -.8%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 50.0 -6.6 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 122.60 -2.8 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 86.3 -.7 point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.39 +1.0 basis point
  • 93.0% chance of no change at Sept. 22nd meeting, 93.0% chance of no change at Nov. 3rd meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -71 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -145 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +15 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Lower: On losses in my tech/biotech sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long

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