Sunday, June 20, 2021

Monday Watch

Night Trading
  • Asian indices are -1.75% to -.75% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 84.25 +1.0 basis point.
  • China Sovereign CDS 37.5 +2.0 basis points.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 60.30 -.01%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 2,915.0 -80.0 points.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 21.32 -.09%. 
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.04%.
  • S&P 500 futures -.13%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -.01%

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate

Before the Open:
  • None of note
After the Close:
  • (LMNX)/.23
Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
  • The Chicago Fed National Activity Index for May is estimated to rise to .73 versus .24 in April.
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The PBOC rate decision, Raymond James Health Innovations Conference and the Morgan Stanley Electric Vehicle Investor Conference could also impact trading today.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are lower, weighed down by financial and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the week.

Saturday, June 19, 2021

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:       
Wall Street Journal:
CNBC:
  • Had bullish commentary on (APTV), (GM), (ORCL), (SIX), (TGT), (NKE), (VFC), (LEVI), (AEO), (RL), (TDUP) and (GOOGL).
  • Had bearish commentary on (TSLA).
MarketWatch.com:        
Fox News:
Zero Hedge:
TheGatewayPundit.com:

Friday, June 18, 2021

Stocks Lower into Afternoon on Fed Taper Worries, Dollar Strength, Technical Selling, Commodity/Financial Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Declining
  • Volume: Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 20.0 +12.0%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 3,027.0 -231.0 points
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 135.19 -.32%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.0 +.9%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 51.5 +7.5%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 115.0  -5.0 points
  • Total Put/Call .87 +4.8%
  • NYSE Arms 1.47 -2.7%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 50.6 +2.1%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 395.90 +.60%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 56.22 +1.7%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 107.0 +6.0 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 84.13 -.34%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 15847 +1.40%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KCCB) 39.25 +.17%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 6.5 -.75 basis point
  • TED Spread 9.5 unch.
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -3.75 -.5 basis point
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  72.0 +.75 basis point
  • IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 74.0 unch.
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 60.37 -.51%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .03% unch.
  • Yield Curve 130.0 -7.0 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 206.85 USD/Metric Tonne -.3%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 44.8 +.3 point
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 116.0 -4.4 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 78.7 -.3 point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.24 unch.
  • 100.0% chance of no change at Nov. 3rd meeting, 100.0% chance of no change at Dec. 15th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -329 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -125 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +11 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Lower: On losses in my commodity/industrial/biotech sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long

Afternoon Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:
  • Volume Running +4.9% Above 100-Day Average 
  • 0 Sectors Rising, 11 Sectors Declining
  • 24.5% of Issues Advancing, 71.8% Declining
  • 54 New 52-Week Highs, 26 New Lows
  • 85.5% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 46.5%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 3,0675.0 -189.0 points
  • Vix 19.3 +9.0%
  • Total Put/Call .87 +4.8%
  • TRIN/Arms 1.56 +3.31%

Thursday, June 17, 2021

Stocks Reversing Slightly Higher into Afternoon on Diminished Fed Taper Worries, Falling Inflation Fears, Multiple Expansion, Tech/Homebuilding Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Declining
  • Volume: Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 18.9 +4.2%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 3,142.0 -61.0 points
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 135.55 -1.2%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.0 +3.8%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 36.8 +3.5%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 114.0  -33.0 points
  • Total Put/Call .81 -15.6%
  • NYSE Arms 1.48 +37.0%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 49.53 +.53%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 394.60 +1.8%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 55.10 +.7%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 101.0 -2.0 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 84.43 +.93%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 155.63 +.51%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KCCB) 39.1 -.14%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 7.25 -.25 basis point
  • TED Spread 9.5 -1.0 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -3.25 +.25 basis point
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  71.25 -.25 basis point
  • IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 74.0 -.75 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 60.68 -.66%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .03% -1.0 basis point
  • Yield Curve 137.0 +4.0 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 207.25 USD/Metric Tonne +.5%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 44.5 -.4 point
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 120.40 +1.0 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 79.0 -.2 point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.24 -10.0 basis points
  • 100.0% chance of no change at Nov. 3rd meeting, 100.0% chance of no change at Dec. 15th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +97 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -54 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +2 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Lower: On losses in my commodity/industrial sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:
  • Volume Running +.2% Above 100-Day Average 
  • 7 Sectors Rising, 4 Sectors Declining
  • 33.7% of Issues Advancing, 62.0% Declining
  • 92 New 52-Week Highs, 16 New Lows
  • 87.0% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 50.3%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 3,295.0 +93.0 points
  • Vix 16.8 -7.7%
  • Total Put/Call .83 -13.5%
  • TRIN/Arms 1.39 +28.7%