Thursday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:            

• Xi to Deliver Party Doctrine to Change Course of China.  
• How Wealth Products Helped Inflate China Real Estate.
• Evergrande Set to Avoid Default After Paying Overdue Interest.
• U.S. Won’t Open Solar-Trade Probe Into Asian Manufacturers.  
• All ECB Bond Purchases Could End Next Fall, Holzmann Says.
  
• Australian Unemployment Jumps to 5.2% in Lockdown Hangover.  
• Asia Stocks Mixed, Bonds Fall Amid Inflation Worry: Markets Wrap.
  
• Inflation Threatens to Return to U.S. Politics in Replay of 1980.
  
• U.S. Inflation Likely to Get Worse, Dealing Challenge to Fed and Biden.
  
• Republicans Blast Food Inflation, Blame Biden #ThanksgivingTax.

Wall Street Journal:

• Inflation Hits 30-Year High.
• Price Jumps Awaken Caution in Markets.
• China’s Plan to Manage Evergrande: Take It Apart, Slowly
• Travis Scott’s Actions During Deadly Show Are Questioned. 
• Inflation and Building Back Worse. Joe Manchin has ample reason to kill spending that is harming workers.
• Family Health Insurance Cost More Than $22,000 in 2021.
• Russia Sends Warplanes to Belarus Amid Fight With EU Over Migrants.

Fox News:   

• Rehab effort to make Kamala Harris more likeable just crashed and burned in Paris.
• Joe says you're too stupid to understand how supply chains work, again.
  

CNBC.com:

• U.S. consumer prices jump 6.2% in October, the biggest inflation surge in more than 30 years.
• Beyond Meat shares crater as losses mount, company expects weak U.S. sales growth ahead.
• Disney makes the trend clear: Growth is slowing for streaming services.
• Affirm shares soar after company announces expanded Amazon deal, fiscal Q1 revenues beat estimates.
• Inflation has taken away all the wage gains for workers and then some.
• EV start-up Rivian is valued at $86 billion after market debut, higher than Ford.
• Mastercard CEO bullish on travel trends: ‘Tourists are arriving, and they’re spending’.

MarketWatch         

• IRS releases new standard deductions and tax brackets as inflation soars.
  
• AMC CEO Adam Aron to sell about $53 million in shares.
  
• Beyond Meat shares drop 17% on poor quarter, weak outlook.

Zero Hedge:

• Surgeon General Rebuts Matthew McConaughey Over Vaccinating Kids; Warns Americans Not To Share 'Misleading Memes' About COVID.
• Biden's 'Unhinged Socialist' Banking Nominee Wants Oil, Coal, & Gas Industries To 'Go Bankrupt'.
• China Blinks: As Contagion From Property Sector Crash Spreads, Regulators Set To Ease Bond Rules.
• Do Antiviral Pills Negate The Need For Vaccine Mandates?
• Something Really Strange Is Happening At Hospitals All Over America. Emergency rooms are filled to overflowing all over America, and nobody can seem to explain why this is happening. With less people catching the virus, you would think that would mean that our emergency rooms should be emptying out, but the opposite is actually happening. If the number of COVID cases was starting to spike again, it would make sense for emergency rooms to be overflowing. But at this particular hospital in Michigan, we are being told that some of the main things that are being treated include “abdominal pain”, “respiratory problems”, “blood clots” and “heart conditions”…
• GM Says It’s Getting A “Better Flow” Of Semis and That All Plants In North America Are Operating Regularly.
• The Two Real Reasons Democrats Lost Virginia: A Woke Post-Mortem.
• Shipping's Extreme Consolidation Could Prolong Supply Chain Pain.
• Elon Musk Confirms His Tax-Related-Selling Sparked This Week's Big TSLA Tumble.
• Personal ATMs Are Back: Homeowners Tapping Into Equity In Biggest Drawdown Since 2007.
• Evergrande Makes Another Last Minute Interest Payment After Selling Private Jets, Pledging Chairman's Mansions.
• Insular Elites Are Completely Detached From Reality.
• The Contrarian Trade Of The Decade: The Dollar Refuses To Die.
• Gold & The Dollar Soar As CPI Surge Sparks Fed Faux-Pas Fears.

Newsmax: 

• VA: Faith-Based Requests for Vaccine Exemptions Will Not Be Challenged.
• States Challenge Biden's Vaccine Mandate for Health Workers.
• Kansas Legislators Push to Protect Workers Who Refuse Vaccine.  
• Rep. Crawford: Piles of Cash Won't Fix Supply Chain Woes.

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• ”Is This a Plan that the Biden Administration is Putting into Place to Bring America to its Knees?” – Former Trump Secretary of Energy and Texas Governor Rick Perry on Biden/Obama’s Energy Policy.
• China’s Evergrande, the World’s Most Indebted Corporation, Officially Goes Insolvent Today.
• President Trump Asks Why Georgia’s Leaders Allow and Do Nothing About News that 74 Counties in Georgia Are Missing Legally Required Images from 2020 Election.
• Joe Biden to Americans: “Did You Ever Think You’d Pay This Much for a Gallon of Gas?”.
• MUST WATCH: 2nd Grader Suspended 38 Times for Not Wearing Masks Tells School Board That She Hope’s They Go to Jail.
• Oscar Winning Actor Matthew McConaughey Says He Opposes Vaccine Mandate For Children, Surgeon General Immediately Pushes Back On CNN.
• New Jersey Senate President Sweeney Finally Concedes to Republican Truck Driver Edward Durr.
• Boris Epshteyn: “Big Name” Petitioners in Georgia Are Refiling Lawsuit against Fulton County over Suspected Fraud in 2020 Election (VIDEO).
• Australia’s Tyrannical Department of Health Raids Anti-Lockdown Doctor’s Clinic and Seizes Patient’s Confidential Files.
• It’s Like Déjà Vu… FLASHBACK VIDEO: Fauci Says Kids can Get AIDS From Casual Contact – Withheld Life-Saving Drugs from Gays with AIDS.

The Epoch Times:

• CCP Aims to Take Advantage of Climate Agenda, Experts Say.

Covid-19(Data, Maps, Graphs):

• Our World in Data:  New Global Covid-19 Cases(7-day rolling average graphs). New US Covid Hospital Admissions/ICU Admissions/Deaths
  
• FT.com:  Fully Vaccinated by Country(graph). Global Lockdown Stringency Index(map).
• Bloomberg.com:  International Travel Restrictions.  Case Graphs by State.
  
• NYTimes.com:  County Trends and Clusters. Local ICU Occupancy.
  
• Brown School of Public Health:  Covid Severity by State/County(map).  US Hospital Capacity(region).
  
• CovidActNow:  Covid Severity/Infection Rate by Metro Area.
  
• KFF:  US Vaccinations by Race/Ethnicity.
  
• Carnegie Mellon: Covid-Like Symptoms in Community. Covid Symptom Searches on Google. Covid-Related Dr.Visits.  Restaurant Visits. Wearing Masks. (graphs)
  
• Safegraph.com:  Commerce Patterns(graphs).

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.75% to +.25% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 90.25 -3.75 basis points.

• China Sovereign CDS 54.0 -2.25 basis points.
  

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 57.82 -.07%. 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 2,827.0 +23.0 points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 20.95 -.96%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.47%.

• S&P 500 futures +.05%

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.17%. 

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• (MT)/4.03
• (GRWG)/.09
• (J)/1.56
• (TPR)/.70
• (WB)/.85
• (YETI)/.60
  

After the Close:

• (BLNK)/-.35
• (FLO)/.25
• (RIDE)/-.59
• (RMAX)/.62
  

Economic Releases

• None of note 

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Australia Unemployment Report, weekly Langer Consumer Comfort Index, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report, (APPS) analyst day, (NXPI) investor day and the (MU) analyst event could also impact global trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly lower, weighed down by financial and consumer shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Falling into Final Hour on US Policy-Induced Stagflation Fears, US Dollar Strength, Profit-Taking, Energy/Tech Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Declining
  

• Volume: Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 18.7 +5.2%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 2,822.0 -54.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 134.94 unch.

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.9 +.2%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 50.9 -8.1%

• ISE Sentiment Index 133.0  +37.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .77 +5.5%

• NYSE Arms .75 -36.4%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 50.23 +2.4%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 382.25 +1.4%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 56.16 +.68%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 118.0 +4.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 89.5 -3.6%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 179.66 +1.8%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 32.43 +.47%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 23.0 +2.25 basis points
  

• TED Spread 10.25 -.25 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -21.5 -.75 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  62.25 -2.25 basis points
  
• IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 72.75 unch.
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 57.92 -.66%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .05% +1.0 basis point
  

• Yield Curve 103.0 -2.0 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 88.40 USD/Metric Tonne +1.5%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 16.9 +12.0 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -50.6 +.9 point
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -21.3 -.4 point

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.70 +7.0 basis points
• 97.5% chance of no change at Jan. 26th meeting, 82.4% chance of no change at March 16th meeting

US Covid-19:

• 159 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total) +3/100K people
• 30% of Jan. 7th, 2021 peak(highest daily avg. new infections) unch.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +54 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +9 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -59 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Lower: On losses in my tech/medical/industrial/consumer discretionary/commodity sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades:  Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and to my emerging market shorts
  

• Market Exposure:  Moved to 50% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth -1.5%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Oil Service -4.9% 2) Energy -2.7% 3) Semis -2.5%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• SEMR, PLTR, AGC, TMDX, COIN, APP, WEN, TTD, AGFY, KRP, SHC, DOCS, SD, EVBG, SHLS, SKIN, EYE, RDW, ABSI, RXRX, TOST, LPRO, IONQ, FUBO, UPST, PRPL, POSH,
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) NLS 2) IVR 3) DISCA 4) AMRS 5) TPR
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) PRPL 2) POSH 3) FUBO 4) UPST 5) TOST
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Value unch.

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Gold & Silver +1.3% 2) Pharma +.9% 3) Utilities +.8%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• RNG, SWIM, AVID, SAIL, FOUR, SGFY, JXN, VZIO, GO, KDNY, YELL, RPAY, DASH, ALHC, STEM, LGND, DTIL, VRM, NVTA, VERI, FLYW, CNR, CARG, CXW, RPRX, EHTH, RRR, NARI, QRTEA, DNUT, PFGC, EVGO, U, DISCA, DV, VITL, GRTS, BLUE, SQSP, ZETA, ADS, VIVO, VLD, PRVA, TRHC, RVNC, ASH, MA, WOW, NUVA, TSLA, ELY and SATS
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) JNPR 2) PRPL 3) RNG 4) WEN 5) WYNN

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) ATIP 2) ARLO 3) RNG 4) PUBM 5) FVRR
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +10.9% Above 100-Day Average 
• 6 Sectors Rising, 5 Sectors Declining
• 45.3% of Issues Advancing, 51.0% Declining
• 113 New 52-Week Highs, 23 New Lows
• 64.5% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 53.7%
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 2,951.0 +73.0 points
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 18,090 -.61%
  
• Vix 17.4 -2.3%
• Total Put/Call .74 +1.4%
• TRIN/Arms .67 -43.2%

Wednesday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:            

• Biden’s ‘America First’ Trade Policy Gives China Opportunity.
• Payment Test Looms; Debt Rules May Be Eased: Evergrande Update.  
• China’s Tech Crackdown Is Upending Lives From Beijing to Kentucky.
• Asian Stocks Mixed as Traders Mull Inflation Risks: Markets Wrap.
• Oil Jumps as Energy Report Dims Chances for Immediate Relief.
• Elon Musk Loses $50 Billion in Two Days in Record Wealth Plunge.
• ‘Light at the End of the Tunnel’: Scenes of International Reunions at Newark Airport.
  
• Biden Urges Democrats to ‘Stay Engaged’ for Rest of His Agenda.  
• Yellen Says Fed Wouldn’t Allow Repeat of 1970s-Level Inflation.
• American Air Offers $1,000 Bounties to Firm Holiday Staffing.  
• Live Nation Now Facing at Least 35 Lawsuits Over Concert Tragedy.  
• Bond Market Flashes Mixed Messages as Real Yields Sink Deeper.

Wall Street Journal:

• Rivian Prices Shares at $78 in Highly Anticipated IPO.
• Forced Covid Vaccination for Kids Is Unlawful. Statutes confer a clear right to refuse the shots before full FDA approval.
• McDonald’s CEO Apologizes for Telling a Simple Truth. America can’t solve its crime and education problems if people can’t discuss them honestly.
• What We Know About the Tragedy at Travis Scott’s Astroworld Concert.
• Is Santa Claus Coming to Town? Maybe Not. Blame the Labor Shortage.
• Departing J&J Chief Alex Gorsky Joins Apple’s Board.

Fox News:   

• Trump blasts GOP rep who backed Dems' spending bill right to her face.
• Pelosi caught maskless at lavish wedding while kids forced to mask up — and she wasn't alone.
• Tucker Carlson: Elitist Democrats want you to shut up and obey.
• Schumer spotted maskless dancing in Puerto Rico as House voted on infrastructure package.
• Rashida Tlaib slammed after saying she's only wearing mask since she's on camera: 'It's not about health?'  
• New York Gov. Hochul slammed for posing maskless on Broadway while children are forced to mask up in schools.
• McConaughey comes out swinging against vaccine mandates for kids.
  

CNBC.com:

• Federal Reserve’s Bullard expects two rate hikes next year.
• Labor union representing TSA and other federal workers urges White House to delay vaccine deadline.
• Krispy Kreme revenue beats estimates as doughnut chain flexes pricing power.

MarketWatch      

• Unity Software to buy Peter Jackson’s special-effects studio for $1.6 billion, stock drops.
  
• Opinion: The Fed thinks meme stocks threaten the financial structure, retail investors say that’s kind of the point.
  
• DoorDash shares surge on news it is buying Finnish food-delivery company Wolt in $8 billion deal.
  
• Upstart’s red-hot rally may be cooling as stock sinks despite earnings beat.
  
• These 25 semiconductor stocks could rise as much as 43% with chips in short supply.

Zero Hedge: 

• Americans Are The Most "Miserable" In Decades.
• John Durham Is Getting Close To The Jugular.
• Something Really Strange Is Happening At Hospitals All Over America. Emergency rooms are filled to overflowing all over America, and nobody can seem to explain why this is happening. With less people catching the virus, you would think that would mean that our emergency rooms should be emptying out, but the opposite is actually happening. If the number of COVID cases was starting to spike again, it would make sense for emergency rooms to be overflowing. But at this particular hospital in Michigan, we are being told that some of the main things that are being treated include “abdominal pain”, “respiratory problems”, “blood clots” and “heart conditions”…
• Virginia's Become 'Ground Zero' For Backlash Against Critical Race Theory Madness.
• China Initiates 'Combat Readiness Patrol' Near Taiwan, Outraged Over "Surprise" Large US Delegation Visit.
• Infrastructure: What's The Bang For The Buck?
• Taliban Inaugurates "Islamic Emirate Army" With Largest-Ever Convoy Of US Armored Vehicles.
• A "Severe Blast" Of Arctic Air Could Impact US Next Week.
• Naturally-Acquired Immunity Versus Vaccine-Acquired Immunity.
• WTI Extends Gains After API Reports Surprise Crude Draw.
• Coinbase Shares Crash After Disappointing Revenues, User Growth.
• Market Musked.

Newsmax:

• Gordon Chang: US Hasn't Paid Attention to China's Threats.
• Obama: Ronny Jackson Questioning Biden's Mental Fitness 'Betrayal'. 
• AG Ashley Moody: Biden Flying Illegals Into Florida.

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• 12-Year-Old Child Dies Two Days After Taking Pfizer Vaccine in Germany – Officials Pull Back on Mandatory Shots for Children.
• Pfizer CEO Says People Who ‘Spread Misinformation’ About Covid Vaccines Are “Criminals” (VIDEO).
• Daily Rate of New Covid Cases In California is Now DOUBLE Florida’s Rate – Despite Newsom’s Covid Mandates.
• NYC Mayor Bill De Blasio Says He Wants to Require Children Ages 5-11 Show Proof of Covid Vaccine to Access Businesses (VIDEO).
• Biden NatSec Advisor Jake Sullivan is “Foreign Policy Advisor” Referred to in Indictment of Hillary Clinton Campaign Lawyer Michael Sussmann.
• Democrats Take Back Conceding the Virginia House and Are Now Pushing for Recounts in Two Seats.
• Joe Biden Admits Life Under His Presidency Sucks: “There’s a Lot of Anxiety, Gas Prices Are Up Exceedingly High” (VIDEO).
• Italy Reports Only 4,000 Deaths ‘Caused’ by COVID Only Proving Again We Were Right When We Posted Only 6% of COVID Deaths in US Were COVID Only.
• President Trump Slams Former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie for Telling Nevada Republicans to Move on from 2020 Election.

The Epoch Times:

• CCP Media Take Aim at Officials Who ‘Lack Confidence in the CCP’.
• US Extends Ban on Investments in Firms Tied to Chinese Military.

Covid-19(Data, Maps, Graphs):

• Our World in Data:  New Global Covid-19 Cases(7-day rolling average graphs). New US Covid Hospital Admissions/ICU Admissions/Deaths
  
• FT.com:  Fully Vaccinated by Country(graph). Global Lockdown Stringency Index(map).
• Bloomberg.com:  International Travel Restrictions.  Case Graphs by State.
  
• NYTimes.com:  County Trends and Clusters. Local ICU Occupancy.
  
• Brown School of Public Health:  Covid Severity by State/County(map).  US Hospital Capacity(region).
  
• CovidActNow:  Covid Severity/Infection Rate by Metro Area.
  
• KFF:  US Vaccinations by Race/Ethnicity.
  
• Carnegie Mellon: Covid-Like Symptoms in Community. Covid Symptom Searches on Google. Covid-Related Dr.Visits.  Restaurant Visits. Wearing Masks. (graphs)
  
• Safegraph.com:  Commerce Patterns(graphs).

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.5% to unch. on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 94.0 +4.0 basis points.

• China Sovereign CDS 56.25 +1.25 basis points.
  

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 58.29 -.02%. 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 2,856.0 -22.0 points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 20.91 +.40%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.05%.

• S&P 500 futures -.19%

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.20%. 

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• (ENR)/.73
• (PRGO)/.65
• (WEBR)/-.18
• (WEN)/.18
• (WWW)/.61
  

After the Close:

• (AFRM)/-.28
• (BZH)/.82
• (BYND)/-.39
• (BRKS)/.77
• (BMBL)/.08
• (GDRX)/.02
• (RRGB)/-.54
• (DIS)/.51
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST:

• Initial Jobless Claims for last week are estimated to fall to 260K versus 269K the prior week.
• Continuing Claims are estimated to fall to 2050K versus 2105K prior.
• The CPI MoM for Oct. is estimated to rise +.6% versus a +.4% gain in Sept.
• The CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM for Oct. is estimated to rise +.4% versus a +.2% gain in Sept.
• Real Avg. Weekly Earnings YoY for Oct.
  

10:00 am EST

• Wholesale Trade Sales MoM for Sept.

10:30 am EST

• Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory gain of +1,677,560 barrels versus a +3,290,000 barrel gain the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to fall by -1,044,130 barrels versus a -1,488,000 barrel decline the prior week. Distillate inventories are estimated to fall by -1,995,130 barrels versus a +2,160,000 barrel gain the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to rise by +.75% versus a +1.2% gain prior.

2:00 pm EST

• The Monthly Budget Statement for Oct. is estimated at -$179.0B versus -$61.5B in Sept.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The China CPI report, $25B 30Y T-Note auction, weekly Langer Consumer Comfort Index, weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report, (OC) investor day, (SWI) analyst/investor day, (MA) investment meeting and the Morgan Stanley Chemicals/Ag/Packaging Conference could also impact global trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly lower, weighed down by financial and consumer shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.