Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +10.6% Above 100-Day Average 
• 4 Sectors Rising, 7 Sectors Declining
• 32.4% of Issues Advancing, 63.4% Declining
• 92 New 52-Week Highs, 83 New Lows
• 60.6% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 51.9%
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 3,113.0 -45.0 points
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 18,642 +1.3%
  
• Vix 17.1 -.12%
• Total Put/Call .62 -22.5%
• TRIN/Arms 1.29 +13.2%

Thursday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:        

• Biden’s Taiwan Gaffes Risk Real-World Consequences.
• Singapore PM Warns of U.S.-China Miscalculation Over Taiwan.  
• China Huarong Gets $6.6 Billion Equity Injection in Bailout.  
• China’s $6 Trillion Hidden Debt Gets Stress-Tested in Downturn.  
• Metaverse Stocks Buzzing in Korea With Multiple ETF Launches.
• Stocks Mixed on Inflation Risks; Treasuries Steady: Markets Wrap.
  
• Goldman’s Solomon Says Market Greed Is Now Outpacing Fear.
• Wall Street Punishes Retailers That Eat Costs, Defer Price Hikes.
• Schumer Drops Effort to Attach China Bill to Pentagon Bill.
• Top Economists See Biden’s Spending Plan Adding to Inflation.  
• Cargill CEO Says Global Food Prices to Stay High on Labor Crunch.  
• Salad Chain Sweetgreen Raises $364 Million in Above-Range IPO.  
• Blackstone-Backed Service King Flags Cash Crunch, Ability to Pay Debt.

Wall Street Journal:

• Biden Asks FTC to Examine Gas Pricing for Illegal Conduct.
• SEC Investigating Developer of Experimental Alzheimer’s Drug.
• What Went Wrong With Zillow? A Real-Estate Algorithm Derailed Its Big Bet.
• Biden EV Tax Credit Puts UAW Over Environment, Nonunion Auto Makers Say.
• U.S. Drug Overdose Deaths Hit Record High.
• Apple to Launch Self-Service Repair Program in 2022. 
• ‘Woke’ Is a Bad Word for a Real Threat to American Democracy. In authoritarian regimes, vengeance and coercion stand in place of justice and reason. I’ve seen it before.
• ‘Rust’ Crew Member Alleges Baldwin Was Reckless, Safety Rules Ignored.
• In Taliban-Run Kabul, Beauty Salons Fear for Their Future.
• Iran’s Stockpile of Near-Weapons- Grade Nuclear Fuel Grows, U.N. Says.
• U.S. Should Restrict Investment in China Due to Security Concerns, Panel Says.

Fox News:   

• Fight for Rittenhouse mistrial intensifies as defense team spars with prosecutors over key drone footage.
• Biden's radical pick for Treasury once arrested at T.J. Maxx: Read the details.
• PHOTOS: Protesters circle courthouse as trial heats up after two days with no verdict.
• GOP defeats Obama-endorsed candidate in deep blue city that Biden won handily.
  

CNBC.com:

• Cisco reports disappointing revenue and issues forecast that misses estimates.
• Nvidia data center sales grew 55% on demand for artificial intelligence chips.
• Here’s why identity software firm Okta plans to open a retail location in New York City.
• Chobani files to go public through initial public offering as its yogurt sales rise.
• Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: Nvidia, Cisco Systems, Victoria’s Secret and more.

MarketWatch             

• A ‘Made in America’ tax credit — what car buyers considering a Tesla, Rivian or other EVs need to know about Build Back Better.  
• Opinion: Nvidia gets a jump on its rivals in the metaverse with the most focused and fleshed-out strategy.  
• How Apple’s buyback party could continue for 15 more years.  
• Opinion: Gen Z is wildly unrealistic about how much money stocks, crypto and other investments will give them for retirement.

Zero Hedge:

• Worldwide Search Trend For "Died Suddenly" Spikes To Record Highs.
• House Censures Rep. Gosar, Strips His Committee Seats Over AOC Animé Video.
• Rittenhouse Lawyers To Ask For Mistrial Over Withheld Evidence; Jury Ends Day With No Verdict.
• OSHA Suspends Enforcement Of Vaccine Mandate After Court Block.
• FBI/CDC Launch Probe After "Questionable Vials" Labeled 'Smallpox' Found In Philly Lab. 
• The Metaverse - Much, Much Bigger Than Facebook.
• Bond Market's Historic Duration Ties Fed's Hands.
• Watch: Sen. Ted Cruz Grills DHS Head Over Illegal Immigrant Kids In "Biden Cages".
• Cargill CEO Ditches 'Team Transitory', Warns Of Persistent Food Inflation.
• 8 Dead, 80 Infected In Fully-Vaccinated Connecticut Nursing Home.
• It's Begun – Get Ready To Pay Much Higher Prices For Meat From Now On.
• Reuters Ratio'd Into Oblivion After Fact Check Fail Defending Bill Gates.
• Rivian Routed, Small Caps Slammed As Bonds, Bitcoin, & Bullion Bounce.

Newsmax:

• Sen. Graham: Joe Biden’s Afghanistan Decisions Were a Clear ‘Dereliction of Duty’.
• Taliban Hold Military Parade With US Weapons in Show of Strength.
• UN Envoy Says Islamic State Now Appears Present in All Afghan Provinces.
• Sen. Ernst: Biden 'Gave His Backbone Away' to Xi Jinping.
• Rep. Jordan: ‘As We Speak, The FBI Is Spying on Parents’.

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• BREAKING: Pentagon Threatens Oklahoma Over Vaccine Mandate — May Lose National Guard Status and Label Them “Militia”.
• SHOCKING New England Journal of Medicine Study: Vaccine Immunity Wanes Against COVID Virus After ONLY 2 MONTHS.
• Pelosi Spotted Maskless at Swingers Bar in Dupont Circle in Violation of DC Mask Mandate (VIDEO).
• VIDEO: Marjorie Taylor Greene GOES OFF on GOP Leadership for Supporting Dirty RINOs But Tossing her and Rep. Paul Gosar Under the Bus.
• Rep. Lauren Boebert Goes Scorched Earth On Dems: “The Jihad Squad member from MN” and Rep. Eric Swalwell For “Sleeping with (Chinese Spy Fang-Fang) the enemy!” [VIDEO].
• Rittenhouse Judge Blasts Media For ‘Grossly Irresponsible Handling’ of Trial (VIDEO).
• Texas Doctor Resigns After Hospital Suspends, Investigates Her For Warning About Covid Shots, Promoting Ivermectin.
• “Objective Journalism Is Not Feasible Anymore:” Project Veritas Whistleblower Exposes CBS Affiliate’s Depraved Diversity Training (Video).
• “Q Shaman” Sentenced to 41 Months in Prison For Non-Violent Offense After He Was Allowed Inside US Capitol by Police.
• FBI Raids Home of County Clerk and Whistleblower Tina Peters — The State Official Who Refused to Wipe Election Data from Computers Without Making a Copy.
• COMPLETE SURRENDER: Biden Talks to China’s President Xi on 3.5 Hour Phone Call and Never Brings Up COVID.

The Epoch Times:

• Chinese Regime Advances Global Marxism to Confront Western-Led International Order: Report.

Covid-19(Data, Maps, Graphs):

• Our World in Data:  New Global Covid-19 Cases(7-day rolling average graphs). New US Covid Hospital Admissions/ICU Admissions/Deaths
  
• FT.com:  Fully Vaccinated by Country(graph). Global Lockdown Stringency Index(map).
• Bloomberg.com:  International Travel Restrictions.  Case Graphs by State.
  
• NYTimes.com:  County Trends and Clusters. Local ICU Occupancy.
  
• Brown School of Public Health:  Covid Severity by State/County(map).  US Hospital Capacity(region).
  
• CovidActNow:  Covid Severity/Infection Rate by Metro Area.
  
• KFF:  US Vaccinations by Race/Ethnicity.
  
• Carnegie Mellon: Covid-Like Symptoms in Community. Covid Symptom Searches on Google. Covid-Related Dr.Visits.  Restaurant Visits. Wearing Masks. (graphs)
  
• Safegraph.com:  Commerce Patterns(graphs).

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.25 on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 88.25 -1.0 basis point 

• China Sovereign CDS 52.25 -.25 basis point.
  

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 56.47 -.44%. 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 3,185.0 +27.0 points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 20.3 -.1%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.01%.

• S&P 500 futures +.06%

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.16%. 

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• (BABA)/12.44
• (BJ)/.81
• (J)/1.57
• (CSIQ)/.13
• (JD)/2.02
• (KSS)/.70
• (M)/.33
• (WOOF)/.18
• (PLCE)/4.40
• (VIPS)/1.52
  

After the Close:

• (AMAT)/1.96
• (INTU)/.99
• (NUAN)/.20
• (PANW)/1.57
• (POST)/.96
• (ROST)/.77
• (WSM)/3.10
• (WDAY)/.85
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• Initial Jobless Claims for last week are estimated to fall to 260K versus 267K the prior week.
• Continuing Claims are estimated to fall to 2120K versus 2160K prior.
• The Philly Fed Business Outlook Index for Nov. is estimated to rise to 24.0 versus 23.8 in Oct.
  

10:00 am EST

• The Leading Index for Oct. is estimated to rise +.8% versus a +.2% gain in Sept.
  

11:00 am EST

• The Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity Index for Nov. is estimated to fall to 28.0 versus 31.0 in Oct.

Upcoming Splits

• (ANET) 4-for-1
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Eurozone CPI report, weekly Langer Consumer Comfort Index, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report, JPM Securities Financial Services/Real Estate Conference, (SYK) analyst meeting, (ZEN) investor day, (TDOC) investor day and the (IR) analyst meeting could also impact global trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by commodity and financial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Modestly Lower into Final Hour on US Policy-Induced Stagflation Fears, Cold/Flu/Covid Seasonal Worries, Profit-Taking, Energy/Consumer Discretionary Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Declining
  

• Volume: Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 17.0 +3.5%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 3,150.0 -110.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 133.14 -.7%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.4 +.3%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 50.0 +4.7%

• ISE Sentiment Index 119.0  +4.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .78 -1.3%

• NYSE Arms .95 -24.6%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 50.98 +.74%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 385.57 +1.2%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 57.50 +.66%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 122.0 -1.0 basis point
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 88.75 +.3%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 184.4 +1.5%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 33.11 -.38%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 24.5 -.25 basis point
  

• TED Spread 12.0 +.25 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -22.0 +1.25 basis points
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  64.0 +.75 basis point
  
• IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 73.0 unch.
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 56.72 -.61%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .04% unch.
  

• Yield Curve 111.0 +2.0 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 88.30 USD/Metric Tonne +1.2%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 25.6 +1.4 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -48.9 -4.1 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -18.4 +1.3 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.71 -3.0 basis points
• 96.4% chance of no change at Jan. 26th meeting, 81.8% chance of no change at March 16th meeting

US Covid-19:

• 186 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total) +1/100K people
• 35% of Jan. 7th, 2021 peak(highest daily avg. new infections) unch.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -153 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -44 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +5 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Lower: On losses in my consumer discretionary/industrial/commodity sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades:  Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges, took some profits in my commodity longs
  

• Market Exposure:  Moved to 75% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Value -1.0%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Oil Service -3.6% 2) Gambling -1.8% 3) Retail -1.8%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• ARI, VUZI, SONO, IAS, TGT, PLBY, PYPL, LCID, PTON, VERI, STTK, LZB, V, KNBE, ALHC, WOLF, FSR, LTRY, SAH, NOG, ROKU, STEM, PAG and ECVT
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) KMPH 2) TIP 3) BKR 4) IGT 5) TJX
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) STNE 2) AVAR 3) SAVA 4) CATO 5) IQ
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth unch.

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Gold & Silver +.9% 2) Homebuilding +.8% 3) Pharma +.5%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• EYPT, TTCF, VREX, AVDX, NVAX, MAXR, DNMR, PCT, KZR, TJX, RBLX, EDR, LEGN, ODP, THRY, TRHC, RKLB, EVOP, MITK, BW, TMST, ATUS, ZYXI, ENOB, EVGO, ONTF, FLGT, BBBY, VVV, LWLG, CVET, DIBS, XLRN, MTTR and GM
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) VRAY 2) IR 3) DBA 4) ROST 5) TDC

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) TJX 2) RBLX 3) HD 4) MAXR 5) BRZE
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -1.4% Below 100-Day Average 
• 3 Sectors Rising, 8 Sectors Declining
• 27.6% of Issues Advancing, 68.6% Declining
• 68 New 52-Week Highs, 55 New Lows
• 60.6% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 51.9%
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 3,236.0 -26.0 points
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 18,467 +.6%
  
• Vix 16.5 +1.0%
• Total Put/Call .68 -13.9%
• TRIN/Arms .88 -30.2%