Tuesday, February 01, 2022

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

  • Volume Running +28.8% Above 100-Day Average 
  • 4 Sectors Rising, 7 Sectors Declining
  • 50.6% of Issues Advancing, 40.2% Declining
  • 40 New 52-Week Highs, 26 New Lows
  • 34.4% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 39.9% 
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 3,189.0 +52.0 points
  • Russell 1000: Growth/Value 16,972.0 -.32%
  • Vix 24.4 -1.9%
  • Total Put/Call .85 -19.0%
  • TRIN/Arms .80 -21.6%

Monday, January 31, 2022

Tuesday Watch

Night Trading 

  • Asian equity indices are +.5% to +1.0% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 91.0 -.5 basis point. 
  • China Sovereign CDS 50.0 -.5 basis point.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 54.42 -.05%. 
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 3,154.0 +17.0 points.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 25.6 +.3%.
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures +1.15%.
  • S&P 500 futures -.38%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -.36%. 
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 
 
Before the Open: 
  • (ARCB)/2.27
  • (XOM)/1.94
  • (MAN)/2.02
  • (MDC)/2.49
  • (NVR)/99.77
  • (PBI)/.11
  • (PHM)/2.30
  • (SMG)/-.73
  • (SIRI)/.07
  • (SWK)/2.05
  • (UBS)/.27
  • (UPS)/3.10
  • (WAT)/3.49
After the Close:
  • (AMD)/.76
  • (GOOG)/27.19
  • (DOX)/1.18
  • (CB)/3.28
  • (EA)/3.24
  • (GM)/1.15
  • (GILD)/1.61
  • (HRB)/-1.25
  • (IEX)/1.60
  • (MTCH)/.60
  • (MANH)/.38
  • (MSTR)/1.49
  • (PYPL)/1.12
  • (PKI)/2.38
  • (SBUX)/.79
Economic Releases
10:00 am EST
  • Construction Spending MoM for Dec. is estimated to rise +.6% versus a +.4% gain in Nov.
  • ISM Manufacturing for Jan. is estimated to fall to 57.5 versus 58.7 in Dec.
  • ISM Prices Paid for Jan. is estimated to fall to 67.5 versus 68.2 in Dec.
  • JOLTS Job Openings for Dec. is estimated to fall to 10300K versus 10562K in Nov.
Afternoon:
  • Wards Total Vehicle Sales for Jan. is estimated to rise to 12.95M versus 12.44M in Dec.
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Eurozone PMI report and the US weekly retail sales reports could also impact global trading today.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly higher, boosted by consumer and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Surging into Afternoon on Russia/Ukraine De-escalation Optimism, Virus Case Plunge, Short-Covering, Tech/Alt Energy Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

  • Advance/Decline Line:  Substantially Higher
  • Sector Performance:  Almost Every Sector Rising
  • Volume:   Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 25.6 -7.6%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 3,053.0 +275.0 points
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 133.10 +.56%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.4 -3.5%
  • CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 41.6 -3.0% 
  • ISE Sentiment Index 88.0  -8.0 points
  • Total Put/Call 1.0 -2.0%
  • NYSE Arms .82 +32.3%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 60.62 -1.2%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 416.71 -.57%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 67.09 -1.3%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 128.0 -5.0 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 91.38 -.01%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 213.89 -1.0%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 31.57 -.03% 
  • Ukraine Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 788.33 -1.7%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 15.5 unch.
  • TED Spread 14.25 +1.75 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -12.75 unch.
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  83.25 -2.75 basis points
  • IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 74.5 -.5 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 54.35 +.82%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .18% unch.
  • Yield Curve 59.5 -3.5 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 137.75 USD/Metric Tonne +1.2%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -6.7 -5.0 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 51.4 +.7 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 32.90 -3.3 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.46 +1.0 basis point
  • 0.0%(unch.) chance of no change at May 4th FOMC meeting, 0.0%(unch.) chance of no change at June 15th meeting
US Covid-19:
  • 1,088 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 63.0%(-11.0 percentage points) of 1/14 peak -177/100K people from prior report.
  • New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -17.7%(-7.1 percentage points) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/21 - 1/15/22
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +164 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +85 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +41 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher: On gains in my tech/consumer discretionary/industrial sector longs, index hedges and emerging market shorts
  • Disclosed Trades:  Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure:  Moved to 100% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

  • Large-Cap Value +.8%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Oil Service -.2% 2) Steel -.1% 3) Pharma unch.
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • IONS, CTXS, LHX, ARLP and AMPH
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) EFA 2) UPS 3) INDA 4) TBT 5) EEM
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) APPH 2) K 3) CNOB 4) NICK 5) DNAA
Charts:

Style Outperformer:

  • Small-Cap Growth +3.1%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Alt Energy +7.5% 2) Social Media +5.7% 3) Video Gaming +4.1%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • TGTX, SEMR, SHLS, ATKR, PLUG, SOFI, YMAB, PACB, NFLX, BILL, AMPL, CCCC, GRPN, OSTK, HOOD, CYRX, OSH, IAC, CLFD, RUN, TXG, QTRX, PODD, WOLF, NVAX, ALGN, KOD, AFRM, BOOT, LZB, ALEC, PAR, NOVA, SAVE, NEE, NVRO, SRG, CUK, FLWS, AHCO, AZEK, CRBU, JBLU, MAXR, HTGC, LXP, HMHC, RTLR, GOF, SAIL, CNXC and JNPR
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) CTXS 2) ARNA 3) URA 4) GT 5) FLEX
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) SKKY 2) ATKR 3) GRPN 4) GNRC 5) FTNT

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

  • Volume Running +7.2% Above 100-Day Average 
  • 11 Sectors Rising, 0 Sectors Declining
  • 72.5% of Issues Advancing, 24.4% Declining
  • 17 New 52-Week Highs, 96 New Lows
  • 34.4% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 39.9% 
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 3,058.0 +284.0 points
  • Russell 1000: Growth/Value 16,950.0 +1.4%
  • Vix 25.8 -6.8%
  • Total Put/Call 1.03 +.98%
  • TRIN/Arms .80 +29.0%