Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +6.7% Above 100-Day Average 
• 11 Sectors Rising, 0 Sectors Declining
• 70.8% of Issues Advancing, 25.3% Declining
• 75 New 52-Week Highs, 106 New Lows
• 37.6% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 43.8% 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 3,882.0 -19.0 points
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 16,801.0 +.66%
  
• Vix 20.3 -5.1%
• Total Put/Call .93 -5.1%
• TRIN/Arms .73 -5.2%

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +6.7% Above 100-Day Average 
• 11 Sectors Rising, 0 Sectors Declining
• 70.8% of Issues Advancing, 25.3% Declining
• 75 New 52-Week Highs, 106 New Lows
• 37.6% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 43.8% 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 3,882.0 -19.0 points
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 16,801.0 +.66%
  
• Vix 20.3 -5.1%
• Total Put/Call .93 -5.1%
• TRIN/Arms .73 -5.2%

Wednesday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:             

• Trudeau Is Rebuked by Member of His Government Over Covid Rules.
• Key Trade Link in Gridlock as Canada Protest Halts Traffic.  
• Canadian Bridge Blockade Stretches Fragile Auto Supply Chain.  
• Record Debt to Keep India Hikes in Slow Lane: Decision Guide.
• China Fell Short of Trump Trade-Deal Purchase Promises.  
• Australia Consumer Sentiment Drops on Mounting Rate-Rise Fears.
• Stocks, U.S. Futures Climb as Bond Selloff Abates: Markets Wrap.
• Oil Gets Another Big Tailwind as Refiners Go All Out in India.
  
• Oil Edges Higher After Report Points to Falling U.S. Stockpiles.  
• Black Swan Manager Spitznagel Says Market Dangers Unappreciated.  
• Harvard Sued Over Alleged Sex Abuse, Retaliation by Professor.  
• Schumer Endorses the Push to Ban Stock Trades in Congress.

Wall Street Journal:

• The Message of Canada’s Trucker Protest. They are saying that it’s time for the pandemic emergency orders to end.
• U.S. Trade Deficit Hit Record Level in 2021.
• SoftBank Plans IPO for Arm After Nvidia Deal Falls Through.
• Ukraine’s Zelensky Wants to Fend Off Russia—and America, Too.
• U.S., Chinese Investors Feud Over Plane Startup During National Security Review.
• Covid-19 Relief Funds Drive Up Nurse Pay, Hospitals Say.

Fox News:  

• Biden admin caught using YOUR tax dollars to funnel crack pipes and MORE into poor communities.
• Leo Terrell hammers Biden admin plan to distribute ‘smoking kits': 'How does this achieve racial equality?'
• DA warns virtually all drugs on the streets are laced with fentanyl.
• Olympians furious after being axed from finals over outfits.
  

CNBC.com:

• Return-to-office will boost demand for personal care items, Edgewell CEO says.
• Biden finally acknowledges Tesla’s EV leadership after a year of silence.
• Apple announces a way to buy stuff by tapping iPhones together.

 MarketWatch:      

• These 15 stocks rose 100% or more during the pandemic, but they’ve since been crushed. Is it now time to buy?  
• Chipotle plans to target small towns for new locations, as they fuel record profit.

Zero Hedge:

• Pfizer Quietly Adds Language Warning That 'Unfavorable Pre-Clinical, Clinical Or Safety Data' May Impact Business.
• Capitol Police Spies 'Dressed Like Construction Workers' To Surveil GOP Congressman's Office.
• For The First Time, Goldman Warns Fed's Aggressive Tightening May Lead To "Hard Landing".
• Elon Musk Blasts Mainstream Media For "Relentless Hatestream" Of "Careless Negativity".
• Diesel Is The U.S. Economy's Inflation Canary.
• Nancy Pelosi Spent $500K On Private Jets While Preaching About Climate Change.
• Waiting for the next narrative...
• Blockade At US-Canada Border Could Paralyze Detroit Auto Industry "In Two Days".
• Morgan Stanley: A Miss In January CPI Is All That Can Save Government Bonds.
• UAE Capital Rocked By Explosions, Huge Emergency Response Underway.
• 16 States File New Challenge To Biden Admin's Health Care Worker COVID-19 Vaccine Mandate.
• Lyft Slides As Active Riders Shrink After Paying More Than Ever For Driver-Challenged Service.
• WTI Bounces After Across The Board Inventory Draws,
• Bitcoin & Stocks Dump'n'Pump As Rising Rate-Hike Odds Crush Credit.

Newsmax:

• Biden Under Rising Pressure to End Mandates Amid Dem States' Move to Relax Them.

TheGatewayPundit.com: 

• BREAKING BOMBSHELL: Fusion GPS Didn’t Only Work on Steele Dossier, They Worked on Nearly Every Key Anti-Trump Narrative Coming from DOJ and Mueller Gang.
• McConnell Calls Jan. 6 a “Violent Insurrection” and Says RNC Shouldn’t Have Censured Cheney, Kinzinger (VIDEO).
• Must See Video: Justin Trudeau Gets Outed by His Own Brother Kyle as Pawn of New World Order Taking Orders from Bilderberg and the Council on Foreign Relations.
• Gov. Newsom Announces End to Statewide Mask Mandate as Covid Deaths Spike in California.
• Canada: Saskatchewan to End Covid-19 Proof of Vaccination February 14.
• Tyrant Trudeau is Losing – Majority of Canadians Now Want All COVID Restrtictions Lifted – Up 15% in Two Weeks.
• New Zealand Joins Canada and Finland – Convoy Blocks Parliament and Demands to End Vaccine and Mask Mandates.
• Biden Regime to Pay For Crack Pipes for Drug Addicts to Advance ‘Racial Equity’.
• HUGE: Maricopa County – Investigation Finds Additional 740,000 Ballots Have No Documented Chain Of Custody.
• Biden Administration to Recalculate the Number of COVID-19 Hospitalizations – To Determine People Who Came in for Covid or with Covid.

Twitter: 

• @MichaelPSenger - High school students in a Chicago suburb were told to mask up or leave. This was their response. (video)
  

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 747,759 Reports(+7,760 from prior week) Through January 28, 2021.
  

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Covid-19(Data, Maps, Graphs):

• Our World in Data:  New Global Covid-19 Cases(7-day rolling average graphs). New US Covid Hospital Admissions/ICU Admissions/Deaths
  
• FT.com:  Fully Vaccinated by Country(graph). Global Lockdown Stringency Index(map).
• Bloomberg.com:  International Travel Restrictions.  Case Graphs by State.
  
• NYTimes.com:  County Trends and Clusters. Local ICU Occupancy.
  
• Brown School of Public Health:  Covid Severity by State/County(map).  US Hospital Capacity(region).
  
• CovidActNow:  Covid Severity/Infection Rate by Metro Area.
  
• KFF:  US Vaccinations by Race/Ethnicity.
  
• Carnegie Mellon: Covid-Like Symptoms in Community. Covid Symptom Searches on Google. Covid-Related Dr.Visits.  Restaurant Visits. Wearing Masks. (graphs)
  
• Safegraph.com:  Commerce Patterns(graphs).

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are +.5% to +1.25% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 96.5 unch. 

• China Sovereign CDS 52.25 -.75 basis point.
  

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 54.47 unch. 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 3,947.0 +45.0 points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 23.4 -.04%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.56%.

• S&P 500 futures +.24%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.25%. 

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• (BG)/2.87
• (CCJ)/.01
• (CERN)/.88
• (CME)/1.64
• (CVS)/1.88
• (DKNG)/-.81
• (FOXA)/.04
• (HMC)/81.85
• (PAG)/3.84
• (TRMB)/.63
• (YUM)/1.09
  

After the Close:

• (COHR)/1.76
• (EFX)/1.81
• (RE)/8.98
• (FWRD)/1.29
• (IRBT)/-.94
• (ITT)/1.05
• (MAT)/.33
• (MGM)/.03
• (ORLY)/6.02
• (PEP)/1.52
• (TWLO)/-.22
• (UBER)/-.29
• (DIS)/.63
• (ZNGA)/.09
  

Economic Releases

10:00 am EST

• Wholesale Trade Sales MoM for Dec. is estimated to rise +1.5% versus a +1.3% gain in Nov.
  

10:30 am EST

• Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory gain of +1,272,560 barrels versus a -1,047,000 barrel decline the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to rise by +1,698,560 barrels versus a +2,119,000 barrel gain the prior week. Distillate inventories are estimated to fall by -1,459,890 barrels versus a -2,410,000 barrel decline the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to fall by -.18% versus a -1.0% decline prior.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Bowman speaking, Fed's Mester speaking, China inflation data, 10Y T-Note auction and the weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report could also impact global trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are higher, boosted by industrial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Higher into Final Hour on Diminishing Global Virus Lockdown/Mandate Fears, Earnings Optimism, Short-Covering, Financial/Consumer Discretionary Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line:  Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Rising
  

• Volume:  Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 21.9 -4.6%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 3,862.0 +185.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 135.87 +.19%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.1 -.65%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 38.3 -2.2% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 123.0  +18.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .99 +5.3%

• NYSE Arms .89 +6.0%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 62.38 -2.3%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 402.08 -1.15%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 72.30 -3.9%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 158.0 +3.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 96.99 +.25%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 212.67 -2.0%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 31.38 -.25% 
• Ukraine Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 762.89 -2.1%
  

• 2-Year Swap Spread 17.75 -.75 basis point
  

• TED Spread 8.75 -2.75 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -12.0 -.75 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  87.50 +1.5 basis points
  
• IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 75.0 unch.
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 54.47 +.11%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .25% +4.0 basis points
  

• Yield Curve 63.25 +1.0 basis point
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 147.60 USD/Metric Tonne -2.7%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -7.3 -.2 point

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 50.0 +.3 point
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 29.0 -.3 point

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.44 +3.0 basis points
  
• 0.0%(unch.) chance of no change at May 4th FOMC meeting, 0.0%(unch.) chance of no change at June 15th meeting

US Covid-19:

• 541 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 32.0%(-5.0 percentage points) of 1/14 peak -99/100K people from prior report.
  
• New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -39.5%(-4.1 percentage points) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/21 - 1/15/22
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +80 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +37 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +24 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my tech/industrial/consumer discretionary/medical sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades:  Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure:  Moved to 75% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Value +.6%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Energy -2.1% 2) Oil Service -1.9% 3) Pharma -.5%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• MAX, CPG, KMT, FISV, KKR, WMG, WLL, MRTX and EPC
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) HOG 2) CHGG 3) KKR 4) FISV 5) XOP
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) SLQT 2) NVAX 3) MRTX 4) GOCO 5) RETA
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth +1.5%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Airlines +2.9% 2) Retail +2.6% 3) Alt Energy +2.2%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• TDC, PTON, ATOM, HAE, CEIX, HOG, GME, CENX, CHGG, AMGN, AGCO, AOSL, AA, VIRT, ZBH, NRZ, DD, CHRS, THC, CRNC, ACLS, BCC, ON, CBT, RMBS, SF, LPLS, SKYW, LYFT, SNV, ULCC, LXP, RL, VRNS, TCBI, CFVI and AL
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) CHGG 2) HOG 3) UNM 4) THC 5) AMGN

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) SOPA 2) TDC 3) HOG 4) VLDR 5) AMGN
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume