Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth +2.3%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Alt Energy +5.3% 2) Airlines +5.2% 3) Semis +3.5%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• SPCE, SABR, MGI, COLL, AMKR, ATOM, ZG, MPWR, ANET, CIEN, THS, LGIH, ARCH, EXPE, TWOU, REPL, WCC, MAR, AMD, ZWS, CTKB, AMG and NVDA
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) VRAY 2) LH 3) VICI 4) SPCE 5) GKOS

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) RESN 2) JOBY 3) HUN 4) ANET 5) ABG
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tuesday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:              

• Kyiv Says Attack-Date Comments Were Sarcasm: Ukraine Update.
• Senators Weigh Non-Binding Resolution as Russia Sanctions Stall.  
• Trudeau Enlists Banks to Help Stop Protests in Emergency Move.
• Biden Team Sees Limited Ability to Press China in Trade Talks.  
• Stocks, U.S. Equity Futures Steady as Crude Slips: Markets Wrap.
  
• Oil Edges Lower as Investors Weigh Ukraine Crisis, Global Demand.
  
• White House Seeks to Avoid Gas Price Shocks From Ukraine Crisis.
• Big Bitcoin Miners Aren't Immune to the Need for Cash.
• Elon Musk Donated $5.7 Billion of Tesla Shares to Charity.  
• New York City Fires 1,430 Unvaccinated Workers Following Deadline.  
• Peloton’s Supply-Chain and Business Chiefs Exit in Shake-Up.  
• Big Options Trade Hedges S&P 500 Plunge of Up to 20% by April.
  
• Top Hedge Fund Managers Made $15.8 Billion in 2021 Riding Volatile Markets.  
• Miami, Tampa Post Largest Jump in Rents as Sun Belt Prices Soar.

Wall Street Journal: 

• Trump Really Was Spied On. Durham says techies linked to the Clinton campaign had access to White House and Trump Tower internet data.
• Russia Accelerates Buildup Along Ukraine Border.
• Manchin Pushes Democrats to Revisit Tax-Rate Hikes; Sinema Could Present a Roadblock.
• Judge to Toss Palin Defamation Suit Against New York Times.
• Texas Sues Meta Over Facebook’s Facial-Recognition Practices.
• What Canada’s Truckers Know. It’s no longer a liberal constitutional state. A coercive Ottawa rules over daily life.
• Inflation Is Everywhere. Some 55% of items saw price increases of 5% or higher in January.
• Levi’s Executive Resigns, Citing Her Public Views on Covid-19 Curbs.

Fox News:   

• Reckoning coming for folks behind Trump-Russia hoax as source reveals hidden cooperation.
• Media hit with brutal reality check after Durham's Clinton campaign bombshell on Russia, Trump.
• Mollie Hemingway hammers liberal media for silence on Durham probe: 'They were part of this hoax'.
• White House confronted over Dem efforts to link Trump to Russia.
• It's not good news for kids in Dem state even after celebs party maskless.

CNBC.com:

• U.S. closes its embassy in Kyiv, citing ‘dramatic acceleration’ of Russian troops.
• Fed’s Bullard says the central bank’s ‘credibility is on the line,’ needs to ‘front-load’ rate hikes.
• U.S. troops in Poland are preparing to help refugees if Russia invades Ukraine.
• Moderna, Pfizer stocks fall as Covid omicron wave subsides in U.S. 
• Stocks making the biggest moves after the bell: Avis Budget, Arista Networks & more.

MarketWatch:       

• 10 tech value stocks that at least 75% of analysts rate as a ‘buy’ right now.
  
• Child-care costs are outpacing inflation — the average cost of daycare for infants now exceeds in-state college tuition fees.
  
• Semiconductor sales top half a trillion dollars for the first time, and are expected to keep growing.  
• Tower Semiconductor stock soars 50% on report Intel near $6 billion deal to buy the Israel-based chip maker.

Zero Hedge:

• Trudeau Unleashes 'Emergency Powers Act', Threatens Crowd-Funding Platforms With "Terrorist-Financing" For Protesters. 
• US Advises All Americans To Depart Belarus Immediately. 
• The Difficulty In Untangling Ukraine Propaganda Means We Have More Of It.
• Airlines Coordinating With Biden Admin On 'No-Fly' List After Unruly Passenger Incidents Hit 27-Year High.
• Gasoline Prices Rise Across US Again, Experts Warn More Pain At Pump Coming.
• Texas Sues Facebook For Hundreds Of Billions Of Dollars For Abusing Facial Recognition Tools.
• Wall Street's Biggest Bear Warns Stocks Are About To Be Hammered By A "Polar Vortex" Of Collapsing Growth.
• Berkshire Bought Activision In Q4 Ahead Of Microsoft Deal; Added To Chevron, Trimmed Visa, Mastercard And Pharma Stocks.
• Free Speech Becomes Roadkill In The Crackdown On Canadian Truckers.
• The Uneven Fallout Of The Inflation Surge.
• SEC Subpoenas Morgan Stanley, Goldman In Probe Of Block-Trading Practices.
• The Mask Is Off: Illinois Has No Science Behind Its School Masking Mandate.
• Does Fauci Bear Any Responsibility? He Says No.
• In Gold we trust.
• Ukraine Sparks Market Mayhem As Traders See Fed Panic Ahead, Price-In Rate-Cuts Next Year.

Newsmax:   

• Nunes: Sure to Be More Durham Indictments Against Clinton Camp.
• Rep. Babin: Biden Cares More for Ukraine Border Than America's.
• Russian State TV Appears to Give Kremlin Its Excuse to Invade Ukraine.
• Everything in Place for Massive Russian Attack on Ukraine, France Says.

TheGatewayPundit.com: 

• EXPLOSIVE AUDIO: Whistleblower Releases Recording – Reveal Doctors Are Refusing Life-Saving Treatments to COVID-19 Patients In Hospitals, Wife Forced To ‘Smuggle’ Ivermectin Into Hospital.
• EXCLUSIVE: UNITED STATES TRUCKERS Support Group Makes Trip to Canadian Border With Supplies! “Boots-on-the-Ground Support for Canada’s Freedom Fighters!”.
• ERIC Part 4: A Response to the Panicked Media Attacks.
• Joe Biden and Democrats Manage to Nearly Double Oil Prices in ONE YEAR – Oil Prices Threaten to Pass $100 per Barrel.
• BREAKING: Durham Probe Accelerates – More People Cooperating and Coming Before Grand Jury — Bill Priestap, James Baker and Dirty Marc Elias Mentioned.
• Biden Spox Repeatedly Dodges Questions About Durham Filing Revealing Hillary Clinton Paid Tech Team to Spy on Trump’s Internet Traffic (VIDEO).
• Update: Justin Trudeau Invokes Never-Before-Used Emergency Powers Act to Quash Freedom Convoy Protests.
• “What F*cking Research? We Are the F*cking Research” – Grieving Widow Goes Off on Social Media After Husband Died with Myocarditis.
• Democrats Are Frustrated with Their Leadership – But Not for Stealing the 2020 Election or Spying on President Trump.
• Halftime Show Star Snoop Dogg in January Collaborated on Violent Police- Killing Rap Song – Why Does the NFL Promote This?
• BUSTED! Will Vicious Leftist Lesley Stahl Apologize to America and Trump After She’s Caught Lying About and Being Part of Cover-up of the Largest Political Scandal in US History?
• 15-Year-Old Kid is Fighting For His Life After Collapsing During a Basketball Game (VIDEO).

The Epoch Times:

• Chinese-Made COVID-19 Test Kits Handed Out to Over 100,000 Super Bowl Fans.
• TikTok Users Are Feeding Data to CCP Intelligence Agencies, Cyber Experts Warn.

Twitter: 

• @LFCNewsMedia -  #Canada #Ottawa We can now see truckers with mailboxes as a way of sending the message that they are not going anywhere. (video) #Israel A convoy of trucks and motorists making its way to the Parliament in Jerusalem to demand the lifting of the state of emergency and the last restrictions in Israel. (video)
• @TPostMillennial -  "MARTIAL LAW": Tucker Carlson calls out dictator Justin Trudeau for using the Emergencies Act to target freedom protesters. (video)
• @The_Real_Fly - FBI NOW OMITS LATINOS IN CRIME STATS, COMBINES THEM WITH WHITES.
• @IntelCrab -  Starting to see more and more videos of heavy Russian military hardware traveling in columns: often on roads and under the cover of darkness. Would very much imply forces are moving to forward positions.
• @aginnt -  “To be clear: This is about keeping Canadians safe and protecting people’s jobs. We cannot, and will not, allow illegal and dangerous activities to continue.” - @JustinTrudeau. (video)
• @BananaMediaQ -  Germany - Landau [Feb 14, 2022]. Nationwide protests in Germany in more than 2000 places! The people demand their #FREEDOM! (video)
•  @UkraineWarDiary - Medical trains , Belgorod. @AAhronheim @sfrantzman If this is a bluff, it is the most expensive  bluff in military history.
• @VigilantFox - Medicare is giving hospitals 20% bonuses if they use both of these codes: a COVID-19 diagnosis and treatment using remdesivir. (video)
  

GETTR:

• @DiscloseTV - JUST IN - The Canadian Civil Liberties Association states the government has not met the Emergencies Act threshold. NEW - #Pfizer recommends contacting your doctor if you experiencing symptoms of a blood clot in a deep vein.

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 747,759 Reports(+7,760 from prior week) Through January 28, 2021.
  

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Covid-19(Data, Maps, Graphs):

• Our World in Data:  New Global Covid-19 Cases(7-day rolling average graphs). New US Covid Hospital Admissions/ICU Admissions/Deaths
  
• FT.com:  Fully Vaccinated by Country(graph). Global Lockdown Stringency Index(map).
• Bloomberg.com:  International Travel Restrictions.  Case Graphs by State.
  
• NYTimes.com:  County Trends and Clusters. Local ICU Occupancy.
  
• Brown School of Public Health:  Covid Severity by State/County(map).  US Hospital Capacity(region).
  
• CovidActNow:  Covid Severity/Infection Rate by Metro Area.
  
• KFF:  US Vaccinations by Race/Ethnicity.
  
• Carnegie Mellon: Covid-Like Symptoms in Community. Covid Symptom Searches on Google. Covid-Related Dr.Visits.  Restaurant Visits. Wearing Masks. (graphs)
  
• Safegraph.com:  Commerce Patterns(graphs).

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.5% to +.25% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 99.5 +1.5 basis points. 

• China Sovereign CDS 54.0 -.5 basis point.
  

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 54.41 +.02%. 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 3,341.0 +67.0 points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 27.6 -.5%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.01%.

• S&P 500 futures +.13%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.23%. 

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• (ARCH)/12.9
• (BWA)/.76
• (CERN)/.88
• (LDOS)/1.60
• (MAR)/1.00
• (ZTS)/.96
  

After the Close:

• (ABNB)/-.03
• (AKAM)/1.42
• (CF)/3.38
• (DVN)/1.24
• (IAC)/.90
• (LZB)/.89
• (RBLX)/-.07
• (UPST)/.51
• (VIAC)/.45
• (WH)/.54
• (WYNN)/-1.25
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• PPI Final Demand MoM for Jan. is estimated to rise +.5% versus a +.2% gain in Dec.
• PPI Ex Food & Energy MoM for Jan. is estimated to rise +.4% versus a +.5% gain in Dec.
• Empire Manufacturing for Feb. is estimated to rise to 12.0 versus -.7 in Jan. 
  

4:00 pm EST

• Net Long-Term TIC Flows for Dec.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Senate Finance Committee vote on Fed's Powell nomination/others, Eurozone GDP report, German inflation data/ZEW Index, weekly US retail sales reports and the BTIG Digital Health Conference could also impact global trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by consumer and energy shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Falling into Final Hour on Russia/Ukraine War Fears, Fed "Behind the Curve" Worries, US Policy-Induced Stagflation Concerns, Energy/Biotech Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line:  Substantially Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Declining
  

• Volume:  Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 31.6 +15.4%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 3,050.0 -402.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 134.18 -.61%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.5 +3.8%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 48.4 +8.2% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 83.0 +5.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call 1.10 -2.7%

• NYSE Arms 1.03 +27.2%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 67.86 -.04%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 425.28 +.4%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 76.5 +1.1%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 169.0 +3.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 99.86 +4.5%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 225.03 +2.2%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 31.46 -.68% 
• Ukraine Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 967.94 +12.2%
  

• 2-Year Swap Spread 20.0 -1.0 basis point
  

• TED Spread 16.75 +13.5 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -15.0 -1.5 basis points
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  97.5 +4.5 basis points
  
• iShares CMBS ETF 51.31 -.33%
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 54.36 -.13%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .36% +2.0 basis points
  

• Yield Curve 42.25 -15.0 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 141.85 USD/Metric Tonne -4.4%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -3.2 -3.1 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 45.5 -1.6 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 32.4 -.9 point

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.51 +6.0 basis points
  
• 0.0%(unch.) chance of no change at May 4th FOMC meeting, 0.0%(unch.) chance of no change at June 15th meeting

US Covid-19:

• 403 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 23.0%(-4.0 percentage points) of 1/14 peak -69/100K people from prior report.
  
• New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -55.1%(-11.1 percentage points) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/21 - 1/15/22
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -90 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -22 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -101 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher: On gains in index hedges and emerging market shorts
  

• Disclosed Trades:  None
  

• Market Exposure:  25% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Value -.7%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Energy -2.9% 2) Oil Services -2.8% 3) Agriculture -1.6%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• XOM, NOC, AB, PRU, PDCE, BBWI, SUN, EHTH, METC, MANT, ASO, DVN, ATKR, OXY, AMPH, SRRK, CLR, SM, ESTE, MRO, CFLT, AJRD, MOS, WRBY, APA, RPO, DAWN, GPRE, CF, NOTV, MRNA and BRCC
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) FLEX 2) NLY 3) NEWR 4) WMB 5) XLV
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) WEBR 2) SE 3) AFRM 4) CVX 5) MARA
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth +.8%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Airlines +1.9% 2) Alt Energy +1.7% 3) Semis +1.5%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• CNR, COLL, ZWS, EBIX, FRSH, WSR, ZG, KPTI, SPLK, Z, BE, CLMT, GT and EXPE
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) SPGI 2) GDX 3) VRAY 4) WEAT 5) GT

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) KELYA 2) ASAN 3) BE 4) EXPE 5) SPLK
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +4.7% Above 100-Day Average 
• 3 Sectors Rising, 8 Sectors Declining
• 33.3% of Issues Advancing, 63.3% Declining
• 16 New 52-Week Highs, 365 New Lows
• 39.3% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 44.7% 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 3,208.0 -244.0 points
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 16,632.0 +1.4%
  
• Vix 30.1 +10.0%
• Total Put/Call 1.05 -7.1%
• TRIN/Arms .93 +14.8%