Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Mid-Cap Growth -2.1%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Software -2.6% 2) Computer Services -2.5% 3) Banks -2.4%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• CND, MMM, AN, TPX, APAM, H, CLSK, BKI, ENVA, KNBE, BPMC, CTRE, APP, BK, OMI, VECO, CBZ, NVDA, YETI, VNT, OSTK, NSTG, OWL, APPN, TWLO, TOST, IOT, CROX, TXG, CYH, AFRM, ATGE, PLTR, LKQ, PEGA, BRZE, NOTV, FRSH, SCU, PAY, ALB, PBT, TRUP, ATUS, FSLY, INFA and AMPL
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) CNK 2) ITB 3) DBX 4) EWH 5) CROX
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) AMPL 2) FSLY 3) ALB 4) BKKT 5) PLTR
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Value -.8%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Gold & Silver +2.7% 2) Shipping +1.3% 3) Energy +.6%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• ACVA, VC, KAR, MASI, TNET, DASH, GNK, GPK, ACC, AR, HMHC, HAS, TTEK, RBLX and DLR
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) ATUS 2) PXD 3) WMB 4) ALB 5) CDE

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) GLBE 2) VC 3) OM 4) SBLK 5) DASH
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +9.1% Above 100-Day Average 
• 2 Sectors Rising, 9 Sectors Declining
• 34.0% of Issues Advancing, 62.4% Declining
• 16 New 52-Week Highs, 73 New Lows
• 42.6% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 47.3% 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 3,345.0 -227.0 points
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 16,593.0 -.53%
  
• Vix 26.2 +8.0%
• Total Put/Call 1.03 +8.4%
• TRIN/Arms 1.07 -24.7%

Thursday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.25% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 97.0 -.75 basis point. 

• China Sovereign CDS 51.75 -1.0 basis point.
  

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 54.80 -.01%. 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 3,602.0 +30.0 points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 24.7 +.93%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.12%.

• S&P 500 futures -.20%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.21%. 

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• (AAWW)/6.23
• (AN)/4.96
• (BAX)/1.03
• (FRO)/-.01
• (GPC)/1.59
• (POOL)/1.92
• (RS)/5.22
• (RGEN)/.65
• (SAFM)/5.98
• (SEE)/1.13
• (SWI)/.26
• (SO)/.35
• (TNK)/-.76
• (TSEM)/.47
• (VC)/.08
• (WMT)/1.50
• (YETI)/.84
  

After the Close:

• (CHUY)/.31
• (CGNX)/.22
• (ED)/.86
• (DBX)/.36
• (QDEL)/5.32
• (RDFN)/-.31
• (SHAK)/-.17
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• Housing Starts for Jan. is estimated to fall to 1695K versus 1702K in Dec.
• Building Permits from Jan. is estimated to fall to 1750K versus 1873K in Dec.
• Initial Jobless Claims for last week are estimated to fall to 218K versus 223K the prior week.
• Continuing Claims are estimated to fall to 1605K versus 1621K prior.
• The Philly Fed Business Outlook Index for Feb. is estimated to fall to 20.0 versus 23.2 in Jan.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Bullard speaking, Fed's Mester speaking, Italy Trade Balance, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report,  (ATI) investor day and the (INTC) investor meeting could also impact global trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by metals&mining and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Modestly Lower into Final Hour on Russia/Ukraine War Fears, Fed "Behind the Curve" Worries, US Policy-Induced Stagflation Concerns, Retail/Tech Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line:  Substantially Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Declining
  

• Volume:  Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 26.1 +1.4%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 3,483.0 +12.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 135.36 +.07%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.0 -1.5%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 41.7 -1.4% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 128.0 +7.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .94 +2.2%

• NYSE Arms 1.02 +21.4%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 66.74 +1.2%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 423.99 +.86%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 74.62 -.04%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 163.0 -2.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 98.03 -1.29%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 216.15 -.52%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 31.32 +.03% 
• Ukraine Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 816.26 -3.5%
  

• 2-Year Swap Spread 20.5 +.5 basis point
  

• TED Spread 6.75 -4.25 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -13.75 unch.
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  100.0 +1.75 basis points
  
• iShares CMBS ETF 51.18 -.10%
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 54.76 +.20%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .36% -3.0 basis points
  

• Yield Curve 47.25 +5.5 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 136.1 USD/Metric Tonne -.3%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 10.6 +17.7 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 44.0 +2.7 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 34.2 +1.3 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.49 -1.0 basis point
  
• 0.0%(unch.) chance of no change at May 4th FOMC meeting, 0.0%(unch.) chance of no change at June 15th meeting

US Covid-19:

• 310 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 18.0%(-3.0 percentage points) of 1/14 peak -49/100K people from prior report.
  
• New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -56.0%(-.9 percentage point) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/21 - 1/15/22
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -35 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +36 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +6 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my tech/industrial sector longs and index hedges
  

• Disclosed Trades:  None
  

• Market Exposure:  50% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Mid-Cap Growth -1.4%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Video Gaming -2.8% 2) Software -2.1% 3) Internet -2.1%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• UA, ALEC, BTU, GVT, AI, FIS, VSTO, WST, RCM, SNAP, PYPL, FRG, WW, LXU, SSTK, VG, RGEN, KR, WRBY, Z, SQ, OMCL, KOD, BKI, EYE, ZG, FSLY, ZI, TNET, DENN, AMD, DISCA, AMN, GFS, FUN, AFRM, TPTX, AKAM, ETSY, CROX, PUBM, TWLO, DNB, MGNI, WIRE, OSTK, IAC, W, EVER, NOTV, BPMC, APPS, MRTX, TOST, AMCX, SAGE, LZB, VIAC, SQSP, RBLX and MASI
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) HBI 2) BIG 3) VIAC 4) AKAM 5) CERN
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) WIX 2) RBLX 3) TOST 4) NVTS 5) SHOP
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume