Bull Radar

 Style Outperformer:

• Mid-Cap Value +.9%
  

Sector Outperformers:

• Oil Service +2.6% 2) Video Gaming +2.6% 3) Retail +2.0%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• RDFN, TNDM, ROKU, ATVI, AFRM, COIN, TSE, ETSY, SNAP, BLFS, ZG, SSTK, U, SMG, Z, HOOD, VMW, CDNA, EVBG, RBLX, HPQ, RH, AVTA, BX, EA, TTWO, MMM, BYND, DT, LOVE, GNRC, CRM, KNTK, RIOT and OGN
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) RNG 2) PENN 3) ASO 4) ATVI 5) DLO

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) WDFC 2) ELOX 3) GDTC 4) BTTX 5) TAOP
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (ANGO)/.02
  

After the Close: 

• (MLKN)/.39
  

Economic Releases  

8:30 am EST

• The CPI MoM for June is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.1% gain in May.
• The CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM for June is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.4% gain in May.
• Real Average Weekly Earnings YoY for June.
  

10:30 am EST

• Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory decline of -$549,800 barrels versus a -1,508,000 barrel decline the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to fall by -1,302,800 barrels versus a -2,549,000 barrel decline the prior week. Distillate inventories are estimated to fall by -527,200 barrels versus a -1,045,000 barrel decline the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to rise by +.4% versus a -1.1% decline prior.
  

2:00 pm EST

• The Federal Reserve Beige Book release.
  

Upcoming Splits 

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Mester speaking, Fed's Kashkari speaking, Bank of Canada update, 10Y T-Note auction and the weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• NYSE Volume Running -4.8% Below 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 10.4 -5.2
  
• 3 Sectors Declining, 8 Sectors Rising
• 69.0% of Issues Advancing, 28.0% Declining
• 120 New 52-Week Highs, 8 New Lows
• 53.8%(+3.0%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 60.0 +5.0
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 66.0 +.3%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 17,243.6 -.5%
• 1-Day Vix 10.9 +4.2%
  
• Vix 14.8 -1.5% 
  
• Total Put/Call .73 -16.1%
• TRIN/Arms .85 -9.6%
  

Tuesday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:

• Stress Is Building in China’s $12 Trillion Onshore Credit Market.
• Zelenskiy to Visit NATO to Rally Support for Ukraine Membership.
• Turkey Agrees to Back Sweden’s NATO Bid in Boost to Alliance.
• UK Retailers Saw Sales Growth Accelerate in June With Jump in Food Prices.
• Asia to Follow Wall Street Up After China Property Aid: Markets Wrap.
• Oil Steadies as China Takes Measures to Revive Ailing Economy.
• Uber, DoorDash Sue NYC to Bar New Minimum Wage Rule for Food Delivery Workers.
• Chocolate Prices Keep Rising, but That's Not Stopping Americans From Buying.
• Fed Officials Say Higher Rates Needed to Reach 2% Inflation Goal. 
• Poisoned Cough Syrup Killed Kids. Authorities Cut the Investigation Short.

Zero Hedge:

• Kremlin: The US Just Confessed To Imminent War Crimes In Ukraine
• Viral TikTok Boat Challenge Leads To "Instant Death"
• Hottie Attorney Departs From Trump Defense Team In New York Civil Fraud Case
• Wobbly big tech.
• Trump Raises $35 Million In Second Quarter, Reinforcing Frontrunner Status.
• Biden: 'War With Russia Must End Before Ukraine Can Enter NATO'.
• Vanlords – A New Form Of Urban Encampment.
• Victor Davis Hanson: Illegal Immigration And Western Spiritual Sickness.
• Near-Term Inflation Expectations Tumble To 2 Year Low As Longer-Term Price Outlook Unexpectedly Jumps.
• Biden Seeks To End Cheaper Obamacare Alternatives, Expect Another Supreme Court Smackdown.
• US stocks gained amid a cyclical bias and encouraging inflation proxies - Newsquawk Asia-Pac Market Open.
• The Smiling Face Of Censorship: Welcome To Zuckerberg's Vision of Internet "Kindness".
• Beijing Sees 'Rainbows' & Yellen Touts 'Success' After China Visit, But Deep Uncertainty Looms.
• Shocking Drop In Auto Loans Results In Weakest Consumer Credit Print Since 2020.
• Cyclicals extend gains amid promising inflation proxies ahead of CPI on Wednesday - Newsquawk US Market Wrap.
• Bonds Bid As Hawkish 'High(er) For Long(er)' FedSpeak Spooks Growth Stocks.

Wall Street Journal:  

• The Country With the Highest Murder Rate Now Has the Highest Incarceration Rate.
• A Chicago Suburb Pays Reparations in a ‘Test Run for the Whole Country’.
• Affirmative Action Bred 50 Years of ‘Mismatch’. Thinking elite schools are the only path to success for students is a form of intellectual snobbery. 
• America Is Wrapped in Miles of Toxic Lead Cables.
• Wagner Leader Met With Putin Days After Revolt.
• Five Ways the Bull Market Makes Investors Nervous.
• America’s Biggest Banks Are Going to Need More Capital.
• Bayou Teche Is an Epicenter of America’s Lead Cable Problem.
• Europe Probes Whether Ozempic Raises Risk of Suicidal Thoughts.
• On Ozempic, and Feeling Judged for Taking the ‘Easy Way Out’.
• Retailers Set Higher Bars for Free Shipping as Delivery Costs Surge.

CNBC.com:

• HCA Healthcare patient data stolen and for sale by hackers.
• The American banking landscape is on the cusp of a seismic shift. Expect more pain to come.
• China has a new foreign relations law. Here’s what it means for business.

MarketWatch:

• USPS raises stamp prices for the third time in past year.
• Why this is not a good time to put more money into stocks.
• Better Therapeutics stock surges on ‘big milestone’ after FDA approves smartphone-based diabetes treatment.
• Uber CFO Chai plans to leave, timing to be decided: report.
• Thousands more Los Angeles hotel workers strike, pushing for wage hikes and better workloads. 
• Nvidia ‘should have at least 90%’ of AI chip market with AMD on its heels..
• As bank earnings season begins, these 20 have had the largest cuts to estimates.

Newsmax:

• Biden To Meet With Erdogan, Zelenskyy at NATO Summit.
• Alex Acosta: Recession 'Likely' Due to Spending.
• Western Allies Finalize Ukraine Security Assurances as NATO Meets.

Fox News:

• Military branch is without confirmed leader for the first time in over one hundred years.
• Community outraged over molestation in public beach bathroom: 'Worse than jail'.

 TheGatewayPundit.com:

• BREAKING: Biden DOJ Indicts Whistleblower Gal Luft Days After He Releases Video Detailing Criminal Allegations Against Biden Crime Family.
• Biden Regime in a Rush to Jail Trump – DOJ Opposes Delay in Pretrial Hearing in Trump Classified Docs Case.
• Sam Smith Performs Raunchy Sexualized Booty-Shaking Fetish in Open-A$$ Leggings and Boots in Madrid – At Family Friendly Concert (Warning on Video).
• Clinton-Appointed Liberal Judge Rules Wisconsin School Must Let Trans-Identifying Biological Male Students Use Girls’ Restroom.
• Christian Precious Metals Company Opposes Central Bank Digital Currencies Because of the Freedoms They Steal.
• YouTube Deletes Australian Politician’s Parliamentary Speech on COVID-19, Claiming it’s ‘Medical Misinformation’ (VIDEO).
• Illinois Law Now Forces Landlords to Rent and Sell Property to Illegal Immigrants Amidst Soaring Urban Housing Costs.
• What a Joke. Mike Pence Takes Credit for Trump’s Tough Stand that Prevented Putin from Invading Ukraine During His Watch (VIDEO).
• Jamie Foxx Spotted in Public for the First Time Following Mysterious ‘Medical Complication’ (VIDEO)’.
• “This S**t is Ridiculous!”- Dad Goes Scorched Earth on Gender Ideology and the Woke Doctor for Trying to Brainwash His Innocent Son (VIDEO).
• Peru Declares National Health Emergency Following “Unusual Increase” in Guillain-Barre Syndrome that May Be Linked to COVID Vaccine.
• Damaged Solar Panels from Hail Storm Will Likely End Up in Landfill Because Recycling Isn’t Possible.

The Epoch Times:

• ANALYSIS: CCP Poised to Expand Security Footprint in Latin America With New Port in Argentina
• Directly Elected Seats for Hong Kong District Councils Reduced to 20%, Ensuring Dominance Returns to the Pro-Beijing Camp

Twitter: 

• @FoxNews - 'CAULDRON OF CAFFEINE': @SenSchumer is urging the FDA to investigate Logan Paul's energy drink that's gaining popularity among children.
• @BrandonStraka - Conservatives are standing up to authoritarian woke progressivism by boycotting companies who push anti-American agendas and its WORKING. Don’t let up! (video)
• @danharris - BREAKING NEWS: China demands Goldman Sachs lie about the state of China’s economy. China’s economy is in the toilet, and continuing to worsen. But nobody can say this for fear that the 25+ percent of unemployed youth will find out and start protesting.
• @TomFitton - "Sound of Freedom" is trending because the Left is angry about a movie that exposes the sex trafficking of children. (video)
• @HayekAndKeynes - Wages up, productivity down. (graph) 
• @TheChiefNerd - “The faith-based movie about child sex trafficking has collected an impressive $40 million after six days of release. ‘Sound of Freedom’ was originally set at 20th Century Fox and was completed in 2018 before Disney acquired the studio the following year and shelved the film. It’s now being distributed independently by Angel Studios”.
• @TotoSzilard70  - List of Pedo-Marxist Epstein Island visitors:
• @stkirsch - This is the story that got RFK Jr to look into whether vaccines cause autism. It's just 3 minutes long. EVERYONE should watch it. It's tragic. (video)
• @bambkb - Joe Rogan is waking up to the tyranny that is currently running the world and the push for CBDC’s/Social credit system: (video)
• @UltraDane - One needs to assume you're being played all the time, unless of course the MSM/Government endorses it, then it's believable.
• @Ultrafrog17 - Breaking: Tucker says the Chief of the Capitol police told him that the crowd on January 6th was filled with federal agents. He planned on airing that interview but was canceled before he could do so. (video)
• @gatewaypundit - Joe Biden Has No Campaign Headquarters, Has No Plans to Hold Campaign Events, Is Not Spending Campaign Money, and Democrats Aren’t Worried.
• @KimDotcom - Unfunded liabilities are simply just more debt if you never produce any profits. (graph)
• @DisruptorStocks -  Inflation has bloated the EPS Growth. 75% of growth since Jan ‘22 was purely inflation. (graph)
• @Crushthemarket -  Depletion is the new normal. #Oil reserves. Gee what could go wrong with a black swan emergency? (graph) Ponzi schemes need constant new money, otherwise it all collapses.
• @songpinganq - TSA expands controversial facial recognition program for security and cut waiting time. It's all fun and games until your social credit score doesn't permit you to board your plane or train. (video)
• @zerohedge - Biden's Endless Gifts To China.
• @ConceptualJames - This is the same CDC that wants authority in your kids' school.

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 966,895 Reports(+1,278 from prior week) Through June 16th, 2023.

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are unch. to +1.0% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 116.75 -2.25 basis points. 

• China Sovereign CDS 63.75 -.25 basis point.
  
• China Iron Ore Spot 105.10 USD/Metric Tonne +1.4%.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 43.4 +.04%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 66.1 +.34%. 
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .34 +3.0 basis points.
  
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 16.6 -.5%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.26%.

• S&P 500 futures +.03%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.04%.  

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Slightly Higher into Afternoon on Lower Long-Term Rates, Dollar Weakness, Short-Covering, Consumer Discretionary/Alt Energy Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  

• Volume: Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 15.3 +2.8%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .75%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 65.5 -.25%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 163.7 -.31%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.9 +.7%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 21.0 +.4% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 116.0 -18.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .81 -1.2%

• NYSE Arms .88 -3.3%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 68.8 -1.9%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 365.45 +.99%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 355.0 -19.0
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 86.32 -1.6% 
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 286.44 -.66%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 175.0 basis points +3.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 118.4 +.8%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 219.88 +.29%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 25.71 -.41%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 21.75 basis points unch.
  

• TED Spread 21.0 basis points -1.25 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -14.75 +.75 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 170.0 -3.5 basis points
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 714.0 -2.0 basis points
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 76.0 -1.0 basis point
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 43.4 +.07%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.35% +1.0 basis point
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 105.4 USD/Metric Tonne +1.84%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 30.2 euros/megawatt-hour  -9.7%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 70.5 -1.5 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -135.4 +.7 point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -7.5 -3.1 points
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(16 of 500 reporting) -20.6% unch.
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 231.48 +.04:  Growth Rate +3.5% -.1 percentage point, P/E 19.0 -.2 point
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.22% +1.0 basis point
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 215.29 +.84: Growth Rate +41.5% -.7 percentage point, P/E 35.3 -1.1
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .32 -3.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index -4.27 +12.0 basis points
  
• US Yield Curve -87.0 basis points (2s/10s) +2.0 basis points
  
• US Atlanta Fed 2Q GDPNow Forecast +2.13% +19.0 basis points
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +4.35% unch.: CPI YoY +3.22% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.25 -1.0 basis point
  
• Highest target rate probability for Sept. 20th FOMC meeting: 72.0%(+1.4 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%. Highest target rate probability for  Nov. 1st meeting: 56.8%(+.6 percentage point) chance of 5.25%-5.5%.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +110 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -90 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +99 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher:  On gains in my tech/medical/industrial sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth -.6%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Telecom -1.1% 2) Shipping -.8% 3) Software -.7%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• TSLA, U, AMAM, FTRE, CTVA, MELI, NPWR, OM, FMC, AAN and PHIN
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) RSP 2) HELE 3) MGM 4) BBWI 5) CAVA
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) FMC 2) MELI 3) OM 4) CTVA 5) WEED
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume