Monday's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• None of note
  

After the Close: 

• None of note
  

Economic Releases

• None of note

Upcoming Splits 

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Kashkari speaking, NY Fed 1Y Consumer Inflation Expectations Index, Conference Board Employment Trends Index for March and the American Assoc. for Cancer Research meeting could also impact global trading on Monday.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -18.4% Below 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 10.3 +1.2
  
• 1 Sector Declining, 10 Sectors Rising
• 54.0% of Issues Advancing, 43.2% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms .91 -49.5%
  
• Non-Block Money Flow +$144.8M
  
• 43 New 52-Week Highs, 29 New Lows
• 60.6% (-.3%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 56.0 -9.0
  

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 67.0 +.9%
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Pair Index 143.8 +.15%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 18,943.6 +.7%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 60.0 (Greed) -7.0
  
• 1-Day Vix 13.5 -36.6%
  
• Vix 16.2 -.9%
  
• Total Put/Call 1.11 +8.8%

Friday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -1.5% to -.5% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 104.25 +1.0 basis point.

• China Sovereign CDS 73.0 +1.0 basis points.
  
• China Iron Ore Spot 97.4 USD/Metric Tonne -.4%.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 39.9 -.06%
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 67.6 +1.8%.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 16.5 +1.8%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -1.33%

• S&P 500 futures -.07%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.07%.  

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly lower, weighed down by industrial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower.  The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Reversing Lower into Final Hour on Less Dovish Fed Commentary, US Call for Ukraine's NATO Entrance, Worsening US/Israel Relations, Tech/Consumer Discretionary Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Rising
  

• Volume: Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 13.8 -3.6%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .45 -1.6%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 68.8 +.2%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 178.9 +.22%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 6.6 -1.1%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 14.7 -2.7% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 142.0 -7.0
  

• Total Put/Call .90 -14.3%

• NYSE Arms 1.07 -3.6%
  
• NYSE Non-Block Money Flow +$218.8M 
  

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 51.0 -2.1%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 276.1 -1.7%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 268 -12
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 62.6 -2.2%
  
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 181.6 -2.6%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 139.0 basis points -7.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 102.9 -.5%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 167.2 -1.4%
  
• Israel Sovereign CDS 117.9 +.2%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.7 +.18%

• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -9.0 basis points -.25 basis point
  

• Treasury Repo 3M T-Bill Spread 4.75 basis points +1.25 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -2.75 +.75 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 137.0 -3.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 782.0 unch.
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 60.0 unch.
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 40.0 +.24%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.36% -1.0 basis point
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 97.5 USD/Metric Tonne -.3%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 26.2 euros/megawatt-hour +2.5%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 36.6 -2.0 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 40.7 +6.6 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 26.0 +4.7 points
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(19 of 500 reporting) +39.5% -2.6 percentage points
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 250.89 +.04:  Growth Rate +12.4% unch., P/E 20.9 +.1
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.85% -1.0 basis point
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) +n/a
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 311.79 -.13: Growth Rate +29.8% unch., P/E 32.6 +.5
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 1.07 +2.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.06 +7.0 basis points
  
• US Yield Curve -34.5 basis points (2s/10s) -2.0 basis points
  
• US Atlanta Fed 1Q GDPNow Forecast +2.5% -30.0 basis points
  
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 52.1% +.8 percentage point
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.67% unch.: CPI YoY +3.41% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.35 -1.0 basis point
  
• Highest target rate probability for June 12th FOMC meeting: 61.0%(-.8 percentage point) chance of 5.0%-5.25%. Highest target rate probability for July 31st meeting: 51.1%(-1.3 percentage points) chance of 5.0%-5.25%.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -273 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +65 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +112 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Lower:  On losses in my consumer discretionary/tech/transport/financial sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Value +.5%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Oil Service -.2% 2) Restaurants -.2% 3) Foods -.1%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• HIMS, PFGC, PLAY, CBRL, USFD, EC, RPM, CGC, PARA, RGP, BYON, FNA and LW
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) BKLN 2) ITB 3) LEVI 4) LW 5) SYF
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) CASA 2) AXTI 3) PLCE 4) LW 5) SQ
  

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

• 1) FXR 2) XLP 3) GNR 4) XLV 5) XBI

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth +1.1%
  

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Alt Energy +2.5% 2) Airlines +2.2% 3) Gambling +1.8%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• MGNX, STAA, ZETA, LEVI, SMTC, MXL, OUST, TMDX, HUBS, CRS, CERT, CNXC, ENPH, DKNG, HDB, GNRC, CYRX, STNE, FSLR, OLLI, CAG, ULTA, ALK, PGY, NTNX, TSLA, FRSH, META, TIMB, CELH, VRNA, AIR, SPOT, MDB, COTY, GEL, NVS, GE, SMG, PBR, W and DELL
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) LW 2) LEVI 3) PCG 4) FTAI 5) GNRC

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) MGNX 2) SLP 3) LEVI 4) STAA 5)HUBS

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) SMH 2) XLY 3) XLK 4) XLE 5) XLI
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume