Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (DAL)/.36

After the Close: 

• None of note
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• The CPI MoM for March is estimated to fall to .3% versus a +.4% gain in Feb.
• The CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM for March is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.4% gain in Feb.
• Real Avg. Weekly Earnings YoY for March.
  

10:00 am EST

• Wholesale Trade Sales MoM for Feb. is estimated to rise +.8% versus a -1.7% decline in Jan.
  

10:30 am EST

• Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory gain of +688,170 barrels versus a +3,210,000 barrel gain the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to fall by -1,838,000 barrels versus a -4,256,000 barrel decline the prior week. Distillate inventories are estimated to fall by -977,170 barrels versus a -1,268,000 barrel decline the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to rise by +.53% versus a -.1% decline prior.
  

2:00 pm EST

• March 20th FOMC Meeting Minutes.
• The Monthly Budget Statement for March is estimated at -$220.0B versus -$378.1B in Feb.
  

Upcoming Splits 

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Bowman speaking, Fed's Goolsbee speaking, 10Y T-Note auction, Cleveland CPI for March, Thomson Reuters IPSOS PCSI for April, weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report, (KKR) investor day, (NSC) investor meeting, (SNPS) annual meeting and the American Assoc. for Cancer Research Meeting could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -13.0% Below 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 10.4 +.6
  
• 8 Sectors Declining, 3 Sectors Rising
• 53.6% of Issues Advancing, 43.7% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms .78 -28.4%
  
• Non-Block Money Flow +$36.1M
  
• 127 New 52-Week Highs, 13 New Lows
• 62.7% (+1.9%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 56.0 -4.0
  

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 67.0 -2.3%
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Pair Index 144.3 -.13%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 18,884.2 -.09%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 56.0 (Greed) -7.0
  
• 1-Day Vix 15.7 +62.2%
  
• Vix 15.8 +3.7%
  
• Total Put/Call .95 -7.8%

Tuesday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:

• Iran’s Better, Stealthier Drones Are Remaking Global Warfare.
• Australian Consumer Confidence Slumps as Prices, Rates Take Toll.
• BOJ’s Timing for Next Hike In Focus as Ueda Starts Second Year.  
• Japan’s Bond Market Liquidity Improves as BOJ Loosens Its Grip.
• Yen Watchers Game Out Intervention Risks Post US CPI Report.
• Asian Stocks Rise, Bond Yields Steady at 2024 High.
• Oil Climbs Near Five-Month High as Traders Focus on Middle East.
• Gold Holds Record High as Investors Wait for US Inflation Print.
• How the 6% Real Estate Commission Became Endangered.
• Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day: Asia.

Zerohedge:

• Jamie Dimon Warns World Faces "Risks That Eclipse Anything Since World War II".
• 'Brazil's Darth Vader' Orders Investigation Into Elon Musk After Defying X Court Order.
• New EPA Emissions Standards Defy Reality.
• Ukraine May Have To Compromise With Russia, NATO Chief Admits.
• Taiwanese Chip-Making Giant TSMC Gets Billions In US Grants, Loans For Third Arizona Chip Factory.
• New York Grand Jury Releases Scathing Report Against Child Protection Services Agency.
• China Gold-Buying Frenzy Sparks Chaos In ETFs.
• Russia Is Preparing For A Gasoline Shortage.
• Here's How Goldman Sees 2024 Election Playing Out.
• US stocks were flat in calmness ahead of this week's potential storm - Newsquawk Asia-Pac Market Open.
• "Did Something Change?": Goldman Trading Desk Warns Hedge Funds Are Suddenly Dumping Consumer Stocks.
• Here's What Will Push Oil Above $100/Bbl.
• Washington Offers Tehran Negotiations To Avoid Striking Israel: Report.
• Biden May Not Appear On Ohio Ballot Due To Democratic Convention Timing.
• Democrats Cry Foul As Anti-Free Speech Allies Turn Against Them.
• Here's Why "America Is Broken" And People Are Worried.
• "Have You Checked If Your Hair Is On Fire Today?"
• Markets tread water ahead of major risk events - Newsquawk US Market Wrap.
• Bitcoin & Bullion Back Near Record Highs As Rate-Cut Bets Battered.

CNBC.com:

• ‘They can’t get it wrong again’: Economists are increasingly uncertain on Fed rate cuts this year.
• Dali container removal will take weeks, a key to Port of Baltimore reopening.
• U.S. ready to sanction Chinese banks if they aid Russia’s war machine, Yellen says.

MarketWatch.com: 

• Do you avoid the stock market’s worst six months or hold on? 
• Treasury yields aren’t acting like the Fed is done hiking interest rates.
• Opinion: Financial scammers have a new weapon to steal your money: AI.
• Nvidia and these other chip stocks named top plays into earnings season.

Newsmax:

• Netanyahu: 'There Is a Date' for Rafah Invasion.
• Hamas Says No Progress in Peace Talks, Sticks to Demands.

Fox News:

• President Biden’s ‘secret’ flights of illegal migrants to New York passes buck to city taxpayers.
• Why Mayorkas' impeachment may be over in a flash — here's what to expect.

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• Victor Reacts: After Destroying Our Future, Biden Tries to Bribe Young People to Vote for Him (VIDEO).
• Joe Biden’s Military Can’t Reach Recruiting Quota – Then This Video Emerges.
• Russian FM Lavrov Arrives in Beijing as Chinese Growing Aid for Moscow in the Ukraine War Becomes a Major US Concern.
• NASA Launches Three Rockets Around Solar Eclipse Path (VIDEO).
• WOKE “Body Positivity” Ideology Advocates for a DEADLY Lifestyle… But Why? | Beyond the Headlines.
• Leo Hohmann: WHO Coming Down the Home Stretch with Invasive Testing and Vaxxing Requirements for Tourists and Others Traveling Legally Across Borders.
• Facebook Disables Frontpage Editor Jamie Glazov’s Account for Daring to Sound Alarm on Hamas Threat in the U.S.
• Co-Eds Loudly Boo as University of Arkansas Police Officer Cuts Down Student’s Pro-Trump Flag (VIDEO) *Updated*
• Black Student Athletes Not Responding to NAACP’s Call to Boycott Florida.
• SICK: Nurse and Husband Charged with Disturbing Sex Crimes Following Evidence of Child Pornography and Bestiality — Police Found Video of Wife Having Sex with Her Great Dane.
• The Case for US Withdrawing from the UN.
• Today’s The Day: CERN Will Fire Up Powerful Particle Accelerator During Solar Eclipse.
• Flashback: Brazilian Tyrannical Supreme Court Justice Moraes Who Is Threatening Elon Musk Also Refused to Investigate Election Fraud, Threatened Bolsonaro and Jailed Opposition Leaders.
• Biden Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen Boasts Relations With Communist China Now on ‘More Stable Footing’.

The Epoch Times:

• From Taiwan to Fentanyl: Biden–Xi Dialogue Changes Nothing.
• China’s Export Thrust Worries Analysts, Foreign Investors.

X:

• @glennbeck

• Paul Harvey was a hero of mine for years. I was lucky enough to thank him, while I was on stage and he was an audience member. He is remembered so fondly because of things like this … (audio)

• @wideawake_media

• Author of 'The Great Reset', Marc Morano, sheds light on the WEF's plan to collapse energy, food and transportation, under the guise of "saving the planet". (video)
• A coal-fired power plant in China's Dai city. China emits more CO2 every year than the rest of the developed world combined—completely cancelling out all the sacrifices you are being forced to make in the farcical pursuit of Net Zero. (video)
  

• @WallStreetApes 

• Mesa, Arizona: Drunk Man Who Doesn’t Speak English Shows Up To 15 Year Old Girls Birthday. “The underage girls at the birthday party complain and accuse this man of touching them inappropriately on the dance floor”. The police side with the drunk man who doesn’t speak English. (video)

• @ImMeme0
  

• MUST WATCH: "Most of Us Are Carl Higbie Right Now. Carl’s Explosive Rant Hits the Nail on the Head! (video)

• @WallStreetSilv

• You thought groceries were expensive where you live? Checkout the prices in Alaska. (video)

• @DC_Draino

• You’re telling me the federal gov’t was directly involved in the decision to ignite & burn toxic chemicals in East Palestine & then declined to cover the healthcare expenses of people they poisoned? All likely b/c they voted overwhelmingly for Trump? If true, heads need to ROLL. (pic)

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 1,007,636 Reports(+4,460 from prior report) Through February 23rd, 2024.

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.5% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 103.75 -1.0 basis point.

• China Sovereign CDS 70.75 -2.75 basis points.
  
• China Iron Ore Spot 105.1 USD/Metric Tonne +.8%.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 39.9 -.14%
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 69.4 +1.1%.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 15.9 -.5%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.2%

• S&P 500 futures unch.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.02%.  

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by industrial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower.  The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Slightly Lower into Close on Higher Long-Term Rates, US Policy-Induced Stagflation Fears, Technical Selling, Road & Rail/Gambling Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed
  

• Volume: Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 15.4 -4.1%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .35 -68.9%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 68.4 +.6%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 179.1 +.34%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 6.6 -.8%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 16.6 -5.3% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 155.0 +27.0
  

• Total Put/Call 1.03 -14.9%

• NYSE Arms .93 +20.8%
  
• NYSE Non-Block Money Flow +$94.1M 
  

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 51.5 -2.2%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 264.2 -1.4%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 251 -17
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 62.4 -1.3%
  
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 184.2 -.52%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 139.0 basis points unch.
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 104.75 -1.1%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 168.4 -1.0%
  
• Israel Sovereign CDS 123.5 -5.0%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.64 -.04%

• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -9.75 basis points -.75 basis point
  

• Treasury Repo 3M T-Bill Spread 6.25 basis points +1.5 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -3.5 -.75 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 142.0 +5.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 776.0 -6.0 basis points
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 58.0 -2.0 basis points
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 39.9 +.13%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.37% +1.0 basis point
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 105.2 USD/Metric Tonne +.9%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 27.91 euros/megawatt-hour +4.9%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 39.2 +2.6 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 36.4 -4.3 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 27.8 +1.8 points
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(19 of 500 reporting) +39.5% unch.
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 251.30 +.35:  Growth Rate +12.6% +.2 percentage point, P/E 20.7 -.1
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.84% unch.
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) +n/a
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 312.53 +.64: Growth Rate +30.1% +.3 percentage point, P/E 32.2 -.1
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 1.01 +10.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index .95 -5.0 basis points
  
• US Yield Curve -37.0 basis points (2s/10s) -2.0 basis points
  
• US Atlanta Fed 1Q GDPNow Forecast +2.5% unch.
  
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 48.4% -3.8 percentage points
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.67% unch.: CPI YoY +3.41% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.39 +1.0 basis point
  
• Highest target rate probability for June 12th FOMC meeting: 51.3%(+.5 percentage point) chance of 5.0%-5.25%. Highest target rate probability for July 31st meeting: 50.3%(+1.2 percentage points) chance of 5.0%-5.25%.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +148 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +23 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +169 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Lower:  On losses in my consumer discretionary/tech/financial sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades: None
  

• Market Exposure: 50% Net Long
  

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (CGNT)/-.27
• (NEOG)/.01
• (TLRY)/-.05
  

After the Close: 

• (PSMT)/1.24
• (RICK)/1.03
• (SGH)/.25
• (WDFC)/1.11
  

Economic Releases

6:00 am EST

• The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for March is estimated to rise to 89.9 versus 89.4 in Feb.

Upcoming Splits 

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The 3Y T-Note auction, weekly US retail sales reports, API weekly crude oil stock report, EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook report, IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index, American Assoc. for Cancer Research Meeting and the (BK) annual meeting could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -15.4% Below 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 9.8 -.5
  
• 6 Sectors Declining, 5 Sectors Rising
• 61.8% of Issues Advancing, 35.2% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms 1.13 +36.8%
  
• Non-Block Money Flow +$118.7M
  
• 104 New 52-Week Highs, 9 New Lows
• 62.0% (+2.4%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 60.0 +4.0
  

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 68.2 +.2%
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Pair Index 144.6 +.4%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 18,907.7 -.2%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 63.0 (Greed) +3.0
  
• 1-Day Vix 9.5 -34.7%
  
• Vix 15.5 -3.1%
  
• Total Put/Call .97 -19.8%