Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (BLK)/9.39
• (C)/1.18
• (JPM)/4.17
• (STT)/1.50
• (WFC)/1.06
  

After the Close: 

• None of note
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• The Import Price Index MoM for March is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.3% gain in Feb.
• The Import Price Index ex Petrol MoM for March is estimated to rise +.1% versus a +.2% gain in Feb.
• The Export Price Index MoM for March is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.8% gain in Feb.
  

10:00 am EST

• Univ. of Mich. Consumer Sentiment for April is estimated to fall to 79.0 versus 79.4 in March.
• Univ. of Mich. 1Y Inflation Expectations for April is estimated to rise +2.9% versus a +2.9% gain in March.
  

Upcoming Splits 

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Daly speaking, Fed's Bostic speaking, IEA Monthly Report, US Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count, CFTC speculative positioning report and the (X) shareholder meeting could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -15.1% Below 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 10.2 +.4
  
• 8 Sectors Declining, 3 Sectors Rising
• 36.6% of Issues Advancing, 60.9% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms 1.25 +64.5%
  
• Non-Block Money Flow +$48.3M
  
• 31 New 52-Week Highs, 23 New Lows
• 58.1% (+.7%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 46.0 -3.0
  

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 68.5 +.4%
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Pair Index 144.3 +.4%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 19,229.2 +1.0%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 54.0 (Neutral) unch.
  
• 1-Day Vix 13.8 -19.2%
  
• Vix 15.8 unch.
  
• Total Put/Call .98 -3.9%

Thursday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -1.0% to -.5% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 106.0 +3.0 basis points.

• China Sovereign CDS 69.75 +1.0 basis point.
  
• China Iron Ore Spot 106.6 USD/Metric Tonne -.19%.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 39.6 -.04%
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 70.2 +2.7%.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 16.4 +1.7%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.18%

• S&P 500 futures -.19%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.18%.  

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by industrial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower.  The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Falling into Final Hour on Rising Fed "Policy Mistake" Fears, Escalating Mid-East War Worries, Surging Long-Term Rates, Consumer Discretionary/Regional Bank Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Declining
  

• Volume: Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 16.0 +7.0%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .81 -26.0%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 67.8 +.2%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 178.6 -.3%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 6.60 +1.5%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 18.1 +8.8% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 105.0 -30.0
  

• Total Put/Call 1.0 -2.9%

• NYSE Arms .65 -13.3%
  
• NYSE Non-Block Money Flow -$484.9M 
  

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 53.3 +4.8%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 261.7 -.83%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 284 +11
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 62.5 -.2%
  
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 183.19 -.38%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 137.0 basis points -1.0 basis point
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 103.2 +.38%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 170.5 +4.2%
  
• Israel Sovereign CDS 127.7 unch.
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.59 -.33%

• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -8.25 basis points +1.75 basis points
  

• Treasury Repo 3M T-Bill Spread 8.75 basis points +3.75 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -3.5 unch.
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 148.0 +7.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 778.0 unch.
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 59.0 +1.0 basis point
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 39.6 -.5%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.40% +4.0 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 106.5 USD/Metric Tonne -.23%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 27.1 euros/megawatt-hour -.92%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 40.9 +3.3 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 35.5 -.5 point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 30.5 +2.0 points
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(20 of 500 reporting) +40.1% +.6 percentage point
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 251.50 +.07:  Growth Rate +12.7% unch., P/E 20.5 -.1
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.86% -1.0 basis point
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) +n/a
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 312.69 +.16: Growth Rate +30.1% unch., P/E 32.0 -.2
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 1.02 -5.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index .87 -7.0 basis points
  
• US Yield Curve -41.5 basis points (2s/10s) -3.0 basis points
  
• US Atlanta Fed 1Q GDPNow Forecast +2.5% unch.
  
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 41.7% -6.1 percentage points
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.74% +7.0 basis points: CPI YoY +3.43% +2.0 basis points
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.41 +4.0 basis points
  
• Highest target rate probability for June 12th FOMC meeting: 83.0%(+40.4 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%. Highest target rate probability for July 31st meeting: 59.0%(+34.0 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -381 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -60 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +204 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Lower:  On losses in my consumer discretionary/tech/financial/transport/industrial sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and to my emerging market shorts
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to Market Neutral
  

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Value -3.2%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Regional Banks -5.1% 2) Homebuilding -4.9% 3) Alt Energy -4.1%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• JLL, GFI, RXO, WBS, PLYM, GRBK, FBRT, NCNO, LADR, PLOW, ARI, LTH, PLD, XNCR, BXMT, BLDR, KMX, DEA, PRFT, PEN, CBRL, TWO, LAND, OZK, LEN, IIPR, PII, EFX, GXO, CRSP, FVRR, ORIC, SSYS, WSR, HHH, ARIS, ABR, SITM, NEP, NEOG, SHLS, FN, ARR, BZH, LOVE, TNRO, DCOM, SLG, ALCC, SAFE, FND, RUN, IVZ, W, HZO, GSHD, BEAM, JELD, FOR, CSIQ, PARA, MNDY, ZD, DEI, DECK, RDUS, PFS, LBAI, FNF, NRIX, RH, TRML, HXL, RKT and SGH
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) DM 2) ICLN 3) XLI 4) ACHR 5) ZTS
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) SGH 2) WDFC 3) HXL 4) DECK 5) LAZR
  

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

• 1) XLC 2) XLV 3) XLU 4) XLI 5) KRE

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth -1.1%
  

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Oil Service unch. 2) Energy -.1% 3) Restaurants -.5%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• JANX, ALPN, RVMD, IZM and AMRK
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) IAU 2) XLI 3) ETRN 4) PSNY 5) EMN

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) MRIN 2) RVMD 3) IVDN 4) JAGX 5) NTNX
  

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) XLE 2) XLF 3) XLY 4) XRT 5) IAI
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume