Monday's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (SCHW)/.73
• (GS)/8.73
• (MTB)/3.01
  

After the Close: 

• None of note
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• Empire Manufacturing for April is estimated to rise to -5.0 versus -20.9 in March.
• Retail Sales Advance MoM for March is estimated to rise +.4% versus a +.6% gain in Feb.
• Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM for March is estimated to rise +.5% versus a +.3% gain in Feb.
• Retail Sales Ex Autos and Gas for March is estimated to rise +.4% versus unch. in Feb.
  

10:00 am EST

• Business Inventories for Feb. is estimated to rise +.4% versus unch. in Jan.
• The NAHB Housing Market Index for April is estimated at 51.0 versus 51.0 in March.
  

Upcoming Splits 

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Logan speaking, Fed's Daly speaking, (SCHW) business update and the (FITB) annual meeting could also impact global trading on Monday.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -5.0% Below 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 8.8 -1.4
  
• 11 Sectors Declining, 0 Sectors Rising
• 27.1% of Issues Advancing, 70.9% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms .89 -27.6%
  
• Non-Block Money Flow -$350.1M
  
• 50 New 52-Week Highs, 39 New Lows
• 56.8% (-2.3%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 42.0 -4.0
  

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 65.9 -6.0%
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Pair Index 144.4 -.4%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 19,229.2 +.11%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 49.0 (Neutral) -5.0
  
• 1-Day Vix 15.8 +17.2%
  
• Vix 17.3 +16.2%
  
• Total Put/Call .79 -21.8%

Friday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.5% to +.25% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 106.0 +3.0 basis points.

• China Sovereign CDS 70.25 +.5 basis point.
  
• China Iron Ore Spot 107.4 USD/Metric Tonne +.4%.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 39.6 -.02%
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 70.7 +.9%.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 16.0 +.3%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures unch.

• S&P 500 futures -.02%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.04%.  

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by financial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Higher into Final Hour on More Dovish Fed Commentary, AI-Related FANG Stock Optimism, Technical Buying, Tech/Homebuilding Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  

• Volume: Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 15. -4.8%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .97 +20.0%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 69.4 +1.7%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 178.8 -.1%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 6.7 +1.2%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 16.8 -5.4% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 122.0 +15.0
  

• Total Put/Call 1.0 -2.0%

• NYSE Arms 1.08 +42.1%
  
• NYSE Non-Block Money Flow +$145.9M 
  

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 52.6 -.86%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 263.55 +.98%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 273 -11
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 63.7 +1.9%
  
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 187.1 +2.1%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 141.0 basis points +4.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 105.7 +2.3%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 174.0 +2.0%
  
• Israel Sovereign CDS 126.7 -.8%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.6 -.08%

• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -8.5 basis points -.25 basis point
  

• Treasury Repo 3M T-Bill Spread 9.5 basis points +.75 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -3.5 unch.
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 148.0 unch.
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 775.0 -3.0 basis points
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 57.0 -2.0 basis points
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 39.6 -.01%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.40% unch.
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 107.9 USD/Metric Tonne -.34%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 29.4 euros/megawatt-hour +8.4%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 41.1 +.2 point

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 34.9 -.6 point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 33.8 +3.3 points
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(23 of 500 reporting) +38.0% -2.1 percentage points
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 251.56 +.06:  Growth Rate +12.7% unch., P/E 20.5 unch.
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.86% -1.0 basis point
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) +n/a
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 313.13 +.44: Growth Rate +30.3% +.2 percentage point, P/E 32.4 +.4
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 1.11 +9.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index .95 +8.0 basis points
  
• US Yield Curve -38.0 basis points (2s/10s) +3.5 basis points
  
• US Atlanta Fed 1Q GDPNow Forecast +2.4% -10.0 basis points
  
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 42.2% +.5 percentage point
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.74% unch.: CPI YoY +3.43% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.40 -1.0 basis point
  
• Highest target rate probability for June 12th FOMC meeting: 77.4%(-6.1 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%. Highest target rate probability for July 31st meeting: 51.8%(-5.8 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +233 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -12 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +320 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher:  On gains in my consumer discretionary/tech/transport/industrial sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Value +.1%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Insurance -1.3% 2) Oil Service -.9% 3) Healthcare Providers -.5%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• IMO, PCN, CSAN, GWW, PTY, SGH, KVUE, RELY, CPRI, MS, EH, BIO, CSIQ, CBRL, GEN, FAST, PHAT, KMX, LOVE, ROOT and GL
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) ACWI 2) FAST 3) KMX 4) DRI 5) GL
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) KMX 2) GL 3) NKLA 4) FAST 5) RIVN
  

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

• 1) GDX 2) XLP 3) KRE 4) XRT 5) XLY

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth +1.3%
  

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Homebuilders +1.9% 2) Semis +1.9% 3) Computer Hardware +1.4%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• ALPN, ANAB, JANX, ALXO, SERA, GCT, MAX, VERA, PARA, BLKB, CHWY, SAVA, STEP, SMTC, NEOG, TEAM and FNA
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) ACWI 2) NVS 3) FAST 4) IAU 5) WB

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) ALPN 2) CONN 3) VERA 4) PACS 5) NTIC
  

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) IAI 2) XLI 3) PAVE 4) XLE 5) SMH
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume