Sunday, May 12, 2024

Monday Watch

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:   
Zero Hedge:

Wall Street Journal:

Barron's:
  • Had bullish commentary on (MMM), (SG), (CAVA) and (SHAK).
MarketWatch.com:
TheGatewayPundit.com:
The Epoch Times:
X:
  • @BGatesIsaPsycho
  • @kylenabecker
  • @TuckerCarlson
  • @LevineJonathan
  • @WarClandestine
  • @LeadingReport
  • @PeterSweden7
  • @ChiefNerd
  • @wideawake_media
  • @newstart_2024
  • @LaraLogan  
  • @PierreKory
  • @WallStreetApes
  • @WallStreetSilv
  • @VigilantFox
  • @ImMeme0
  • @EndWokeness
  • @KobeissiLetter
  • @robbystarbuck
  • @unusual_whales
  • @JunkScience
  • A few points: 1. Climate hoaxers always knew that carbon offsets were fraud. 2. Now after luring corporations into buying offsets, the hoaxers are pulling out the rug from under corporations to create legal and PR problems and to otherwise cause chaos.
  • @CartlandDavid
OpenVAERS: 
SKirsch.com:
Night Trading
  • Asian indices are -.5% to +.25% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 99.75 -3.0 basis points.
  • China Sovereign CDS 64.75 -.5 basis point.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 115.2 USD/Metric Tonne -.71%.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 39.6 -.03%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 67.7 +3.0%.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 14.4 -.2%. 
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures n/a.
  • S&P 500 futures -.06%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -.04%.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by commodity and consumer shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the week.

Friday, May 10, 2024

Weekly Scoreboard*


S&P 500 5,221.0 +1.7%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Weekly Market Wrap by Edward Jones.

Indices

  • DJIA 39,529.7 +2.1%
  • NASDAQ 16,341.5 +1.1%
  • Russell 2000 2,057.9 +1.0%
  • NYSE FANG+ 10,133.9 +.81%
  • Goldman 50 Most Shorted 163.7 -2.2%
  • Wilshire 5000 51,949.1 +1.7%
  • Russell 1000 Growth 3,388.15 +1.5%
  • Russell 1000 Value 1,740.0 +2.0%
  • S&P 500 Consumer Staples 828.3 +2.1%
  • Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 239.24 -1.0%
  • NYSE Technology 4,720.3 +.7%
  • Transports 15,554.5 +1.34%
  • Utilities 943.8 +3.2%
  • Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 107.1 +3.1%
  • MSCI Emerging Markets 42.4 +.2%
  • Credit Suisse AllHedge Long/Short Equity Index 210.7 +.59%
  • Credit Suisse AllHedge Equity Market Neutral Index 109.7 +.39%
Sentiment/Internals
  • NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 500,922 +1.4%
  • Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 8.3 -3.2%
  • Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index 616 +502
  • Crude Oil Commercial Bullish % Net Position -32.5 +1.5%
  • CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 265,461 +.24%
  • CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,794,542 +1.7%
  • Total Put/Call .89 -5.3%
  • OEX Put/Call 1.09 +29.0%
  • ISE Sentiment 140.0 +30.0 points
  • NYSE Arms 1.20 -15.0%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 65.5 -1.95%
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 1.13 +19.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg European Financial Conditions Index 1.05 +22.0 basis points
  • Volatility(VIX) 12.6 -5.7%
  • DJIA Intraday % Swing .44 -41.5%
  • CBOE S&P 500 3M Implied Correlation Index 16.2 -9.0%
  • G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 7.13 -4.3%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 6.87 -2.4%
  • Smart Money Flow Index 17,567.6 +1.5%
  • NAAIM Exposure Index  91.6 +29.4
  • ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $6.032 Trillion +.5%
  • ICI Domestic Equity Long-Term Mutual Fund/ETFs Weekly Flows -$2.744 Million
  • AAII % Bulls 40.8 +6.0%
  • AAII % Bears 23.8 -26.8%
  • CNN Fear & Greed Index 47.0 (Neutral) +7.0
Futures Spot Prices
  • CRB Index 289.47 +1.8%
  • Crude Oil 78.40/bbl. +.42%
  • Reformulated Gasoline 250.26 -2.0%
  • Natural Gas 2.26 +5.1%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 30.0 euros/megawatt-hour -.1%
  • Heating Oil 243.5 -.3% 
  • Newcastle Coal 142.0 (1,000/metric ton) -2.4%
  • Gold 2,365.7 +2.9%
  • Silver 28.24 +6.3%
  • S&P GSCI Industrial Metals Index 472.2 +.25%
  • Copper 465.6 +2.0%
  • US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 380.0 USD/Metric Tonne -.5%
  • China Iron Ore Spot 115.4 USD/Metric Tonne -3.6%
  • CME Lumber  534.5 -.83%
  • UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,519.6 +2.5%
  • US Gulf NOLA Potash Spot 302.5 USD/Short Ton unch.
Economy
  • Atlanta Fed GDPNow 2Q Forecast +4.2% +90.0 basis points
  • NY Fed Real-Time Weekly Economic Index 1.74 +6.8%
  • US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index 62.9 +42.8%
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(459 of 500 reporting) +5.5% +1.2 percentage points
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 255.30 +2.42:  Growth Rate +14.4% unch., P/E 20.4 +.3
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.90% -2.0 basis points
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(7 of 10 reporting) +37.2% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 326.10 +1.52: Growth Rate +35.7% +.6 percentage point, P/E 31.1 +.2
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -18.5 -11.1 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 24.2 -3.0 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 26.5 -5.5 points
  • Fed Fund Futures imply 3.5%(-4.9 percentage points) chance of -25.0 basis point cut to 5.0-5.25%, 96.5%(+4.9 percentage points) chance of no change, 0.0%(unch.) chance of +25.0 basis point hike to 5.5-5.75% on 6/12
  • US Dollar Index 105.3 +.2%
  • MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,723.9 -.05%
  • Bitcoin/USD 60,568.5 -5.0%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 183.1 +2.0%
  • Yield Curve(2s/10s) -36.75 -5.75 basis points
  • 10-Year US Treasury Yield 4.50% unch.
  • Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $7.318 Trillion -.12%
  • Federal Reserve's Discount Window Usage $6.200 Billion -11.6%
  • Federal Reserve's Bank Term Funding Program $112.663 Billion -9.2%
  • U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 42.4 +.1%
  • Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 199.48 +5.0%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 134.0 +2.0 basis points
  • UK Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 25.44 -.22%
  • China Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 64.0 -1.1%
  • Brazil Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 140.26 +.57%
  • Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 129.8 -.9%
  • South Korea Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 34.77 +1.1%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.6 unch.
  • China High-Yield Real Estate Total Return Index 96.13 -.03%
  • Atlanta Fed Low Skill Wage Growth Tracker YoY +5.5% unch.
  • Zillow US All Homes Rent Index YoY +3.7% unch.
  • US Urban Consumers Food CPI YoY +2.2% unch.
  • CPI Core Services Ex-Shelter YoY +5.0% unch.
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.74% unch.: CPI YoY +3.50% unch.
  • 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.20% -7.0 basis points
  • Treasury Repo 3M T-Bill Spread 8.5 basis points +.75 basis point
  • 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -8.75 -1.25 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -3.75 -.25 basis point
  • N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 50.5 +.37%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 130.0 +3.7
  • Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 294.0 +5.0
  • European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 59.95 -1.4%
  • Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 179.0 -4.2%
  • Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 162.8 -1.1%
  • MBS 5/10 Treasury Spread 143.0 -1.0 basis point
  • Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 746.0 -15.0 basis points
  • Avg. Auto ABS OAS .58 +1.0 basis point
  • M2 Money Supply YoY % Change -.3% unch.
  • Commercial Paper Outstanding $1,329.0B +.6%
  • 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 215,000 +2.3%
  • Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.2% unch.
  • Kastle Back-to-Work Barometer(entries in secured buildings) 50.6 -.8%
  • Average 30-Year Fixed Home Mortgage Rate 7.37% -7.0 basis points
  • Weekly Mortgage Applications 197,100 +2.6%
  • Weekly Retail Sales +5.40% +20.0 basis points
  • OpenTable US Seated Diners % Change YoY n/a
  • Box Office Weekly Gross $112.9M n/a
  • Nationwide Gas $3.64/gallon -.03/gallon
  • Baltic Dry Index 2,166.7 +22.1%
  • Drewry World Container Freight Index $3,158.6/40 ft Box +15.9%
  • China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 1,237.8 +3.7%
  • Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 45.0 +12.5%
  • Truckstop.com Market Demand Index 54.4 +11.4%
  • Rail Freight Carloads 249,696 -4.7%
  • TSA Total Traveler Throughput 2,786,520 +28.1%
Best Performing Style
  • Mid-Cap Value +2.1%
Worst Performing Style
  •  Small-Cap Value +.9%
Leading Sectors
  • Shipping +7.7%
  • Telecom +6.5%
  • Gold & Silver +6.2%
  • Disk Drives +3.4%
  • Utilities +3.2%
Lagging Sectors
  • Steel -.1%
  • Biotech -1.0%
  • Social Media -1.1%
  • Digital Health -1.9%
  • Alt Energy -2.6%
Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (36)
  • ITOS, SG, CDNA, GRPN, OUST, GEN, ACIC, GH, MTUS, NTRA, HROW, BLFS, HRB, CARG, ZIM, BROS, FOUR, ONTO, DOCN, ANET, MRVI, VERX, COLD, MRC, RBA, G, FVRR, ARM, CRH, TSM, AY, CHTR, CAVA, ROAD, WAT, A and WRBY
Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (17)
  • RWAY, FTRE, SYNA, IIIV, SHOP, PODD, TREX, U, EVH, AKAM, ARLO, COLL, PGNY, FROG, SVV, IOVA and OKLO
ETFs
Stocks
*5-Day Change


Monday's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:
  • None of note
After the Close: 
  • None of note
Economic Releases
  • None of note

Upcoming Splits 

  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Fed's Jefferson speaking, Fed's Mester speaking, NY Fed 1Y Consumer Inflation Expectations Index, (DKNG) annual meeting,BofA Transports/Airlines/Industrials Conference, BofA Healthcare Conference and the RBC Healthcare Conference could also impact global trading on Monday.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

  • Volume Running -3.8% Below 100-Day Average 
  • Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 9.3 -.7
  • 5 Sectors Declining, 6 Sectors Rising
  • 39.1% of Issues Advancing, 58.1% Declining 
  • TRIN/Arms 1.21 +33.0%
  • Non-Block Money Flow +$117.0M
  • 182 New 52-Week Highs, 11 New Lows
  • 61.1% (-.4%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 64.0 +3.0
Other:
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 66.1 +.5%
  • Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 239.2 -.2%
  • Russell 1000: Growth/Value 19,028.7 -.03%
  • CNN Fear & Greed Index 48.0 (Neutral) +6.0
  • 1-Day Vix 8.1 -4.1%
  • Vix 12.8 +.6%
  • Total Put/Call .85 unch.

Thursday, May 09, 2024

Friday Watch

X:

  • @libsoftiktok
  • @realLizUSA
  • @Breaking911
  • @wideawake_media
  • @JunkScience
  • @amuse
  • @MarioNawful
  • @WallStreetApes 
  • @RWMaloneMD
  • @StephenM
  • @Rasmussen_Poll
  • @JackStr42679640
  • @PeterSweden7
  • What is Bill Gates up to? Donated $1.2 BILLION to fund the UN Agenda 2030 global goals. Is behind 88% of philantrophic donations to the WHO. Backs a project that's spraying salt particles into the air to BLOCK the sun. Backs a project where scientists INFECT millions of mosquitos with bacteria and release them into the wild, claiming it will reduce serious diseases. Supports a company developing cow feed additives to make them fart less. Gave hundreds of millions of dollars towards GLOBAL DIGITAL ID. Did you vote for any of this?
  • @MdBreathe
  • @WallStreetSilv
  • @unusual_whales
  •  @liz_churchill10
OpenVAERS:
SKirsch.com:
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are +.5% to +1.5% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 102.75 -1.25 basis points.
  • China Sovereign CDS 65.25 +.25 basis point.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 115.6 USD/Metric Tonne -.2%.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 39.64 -.03%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 67.7 +2.8%.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 14.6 -.01%.
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.20%.
  • S&P 500 futures +.10%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.08%.  
Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly higher, boosted by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.