Tuesday, June 18, 2024

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

  • Small-Cap Growth +.6%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Gold & Silver +1.7% 2) Semis +1.5% 3) Gambling +1.3%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • SILK, NRIX, NNE, LZB, CHWY, ITCI, CATX, PDCO, AMKR, ATRC, LMND, ELF, ARM, CELH, DELL, QNST, HIMS, SIX, LNW, TOST, IMAX, LNG, SMCI, TALO, BROS, IOT, ONTO and OLLI
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) STX 2) TSEM 3) BBY 4) CORT 5) JBL
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) LZB 2) ASNS 3) RKLB 4) SILK 5) NRIX
Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:
  • 1) XLE 2) XLI 3) XLF 4) SOXX 5) XLY
Charts:

Thursday's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:
  • (SCS)/.10
  • (ACN)/3.16
  • (CMC)/1.02
  • (DRI)/2.61
  • (GMS)/2.04
  • (JBL)/1.85
  • (KR)/1.36
  • (WGO)/1.32
After the Close: 
  • (SWBI)/.35
Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

  • The Current Account Deficit for 1Q is estimated to widen to -$206.8B versus -$194.8B in 4Q. 
  • Initial Jobless Claims are estimated to fall to 235K versus 242K the prior week.
  • Continuing Claims is estimated to fall to 1810K versus 1820K prior.
  • Housing Starts for May is estimated to rise to 1370K versus 1360K in April.
  • Building Permits for May is estimated to rise to 1450K versus 1440K in April.
  • Philly Fed Business Outlook Index for June is estimated to rise to 5.0 versus 4.5 in May.

11:00 am EST

  • Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory decline of -1,981,830 barrels versus a +3,730,000 barrel gain the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to rise by +617,500 barrels versus a +2,566,000 barrel gain the prior week. Distillate inventories are estimated to rise by +714,500 barrels versus a +881,000 barrel gain the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to fall by -.1% versus a -.4% decline prior.

Upcoming Splits

  • (BBSI) 4-for-1
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Fed's Barkin speaking, Atlanta Fed GDPNow 2Q update, weekly MBA Mortgage Applications Index, Fed's weekly balance sheet report, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report, (DAL) annual meeting, (PVH) annual meeting, (BIIB) annual meeting, (DASH) annual meeting, (OKTA) annual meeting, (EBAY) annual meeting, (CAVA) annual meeting, (DLTR) annual meeting and the TD Cowen Genetic Medicines/RNA Summit could also impact global trading on Thursday.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

  • Volume Running -17.0% Below 100-Day Average 
  • Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 14.7 -.2
  • 4 Sectors Declining, 7 Sectors Rising
  • 59.9% of Issues Advancing, 37.7% Declining 
  • TRIN/Arms 1.08 +28.6%
  • Non-Block Money Flow -$153.3M
  • 79 New 52-Week Highs, 42 New Lows
  • 52.2% (+.3%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 49.0 +4.0
Other:
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 58.4 -2.3%
  • Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 237.0 -.1%
  • Russell 1000: Growth/Value 21,084.2 -.15%
  • CNN Fear & Greed Index 42.0 (FEAR) +1.0
  • 1-Day Vix 9.7 -1.7%
  • Vix 12.5 -1.9%
  • Total Put/Call .82 -6.8%

Monday, June 17, 2024

Tuesday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:

Zerohedge:  

Wall Street Journal:

CNBC.com:

TheGatewayPundit.com:

The Epoch Times:

Around X:
  • @elonmusk
  • @WallStreetApes
  • @wideawake_media
  • @amuse
  • @realchrisrufo
  • @naomirwolf
OpenVAERS:
SKirsch.com:
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are +.5% to +1.0% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 100.25 +.5 basis point.
  • China Sovereign CDS 67.25 -1.0 basis point.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 108.2 USD/Metric Tonne +.27%.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 39.1 unch.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 61.0 +2.0%.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 14.4 +.2%.
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.53%.
  • S&P 500 futures +.02%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -.05%.  
Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly higher, boosted by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Reversing Higher into Close on Earnings Outlook Optimism, Technical Buying, Dollar Weakness, Tech/Consumer Discretionary Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

  • Advance/Decline Line: Slightly Lower
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  • Volume: Below Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 12.6 -.2%
  • DJIA Intraday % Swing .71 -2.9%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 59.7 +1.4%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 185.4 +.47%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 7.6 -1.2%
  • CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 9.1 -7.3% 
  • ISE Sentiment Index 132.0 -7.0
  • Total Put/Call .83 -9.8%
  • NYSE Arms .89 -34.1%
  • NYSE Non-Block Money Flow -$157.2M 
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 53.3 -.9%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 278.6 -3.8%
  • Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 289 +1
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 73.0 -2.1%
  • Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 191.6 +2.2%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 153.0 basis points -4.0 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 100.9 +2.6%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 170.9 -.08%
  • Israel Sovereign CDS 124.8 +1.5%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.9 -.04%
  • 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -16.5 basis points -.25 basis points
  • Treasury Repo 3M T-Bill Spread 8.5 basis points +1.75 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -3.75 +2.25 basis points
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 144.0 -1.0 basis point
  • Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 720.0 -4.0 basis points
  • Avg. Auto ABS OAS 58.0 -2.0 basis points
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 39.1 unch.
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.38% unch.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 107.3 USD/Metric Tonne +1.8%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 34.2 euros/megawatt-hour -3.3%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -21.5 -1.6 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 25.1 -.3 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 6.9 +.7 point
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(2 of 500 reporting) +2.9% n/a
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 259.43 +.33:  Growth Rate +13.8% +.2 percentage point, P/E 21.0 +.1
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.83% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 334.46 +.50: Growth Rate +24.7% +.2 percentage point, P/E 33.8 +.3
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 1.0 -4.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index .58 -24.0 basis points
  • US Yield Curve -49.0 basis points (2s/10s) -1.5 basis points
  • US Atlanta Fed 2Q GDPNow Forecast +3.1% unch.
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 54.9% -.8 percentage point
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.56% unch.: CPI YoY +3.15% unch.
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.22 +4.0 basis points
  • Highest target rate probability for Sept. 18th FOMC meeting: 57.5%(-4.5 percentage points) chance of 5.0%-5.25%. Highest target rate probability for Nov. 7th meeting: 50.2%(+1.6 percentage points) chance of 5.0%-5.25%.
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +413 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -5 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +103 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher:  On gains in my industrial/consumer discretionary/tech sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved 100% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

  • Large-Cap Value +.6%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Alt Energy -.7% 2) Telecom -.4% 3) Biotech -.4%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • FUTU, BASE, FSLR, SYM, CATX, IMNM, GME, SYRE and AMCX
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) HUN 2) OIH 3) FTI 4) IEF 5) XLB
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) GME 2) AKRO 3) ALT 4) SMG 5) MATW
Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:
  • 1) XLI 2) XLY 3) XLK 4) XRT 5) XLF