BETWEEN THE HEDGES

Sunday, September 08, 2024

Monday Watch

Posted by Gary .....at 8:54 PM

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:

Zero Hedge:

Wall Street Journal:

Trump Can Make America Healthy Again. Chronic diseases have reached crisis proportions, and Kamala Harris seems uninterested in the issue.
Trump’s Best Idea: Unleashing Elon Musk on Government. The entrepreneur wants to run a commission on government efficiency.
Musk’s xAI Has Discussed Deal for Share of Future Tesla Revenue.
Amazon Wants Your Palm and TSA Wants Your Face. What Saying Yes Will Mean.
The State of America’s Wallet.
Why Mexico’s Looming Judiciary Overhaul Spooks U.S. Business.
The Presidential Campaign Proposals Voters Like Best.
Repeated Takes, Coaching on Lines: Inside Hamas’s Hostage Video Machine.
Want to Shop With the Ultra Rich? The Entry Fee Is $12,000.
Jobs Slowdown Frustrates Investors Who Wanted Certainty on the Fed.
Brazilians Take to Streets to Protest Ban on Elon Musk’s X.
Berkeley’s Gas Stove Tax. A court blocked the city’s ban, but Plan B is to kill them with taxes.
What Did the Biden Family’s Foreign Clients Get for their Money? Hunter Biden pleads guilty to federal tax charges.
An Economic October Surprise Could Roil the 2024 Election. Possibilities include a U.S. financial panic, a Chinese recession, and a political crisis across the Atlantic.
The Biden-Harris Subprime Bank. Bad loans and guarantees will cost taxpayers $65.2 billion in fiscal 2025.

Barron's:

Had bullish commentary on (CELH), (CEG) and (VST).

CNBC:

MarketWatch.com:

NewsMax:

Fox News:

TheGatewayPundit.com:

The Epoch Times:

Around X:

@elonmusk

So many lives have been lost, because Democrat policies pander to the criminal clients. Criminals vote overwhelmingly Democrat, so they don’t want to lose their votes. (pic)

@barnes_law

Blocking the public from viewing the count of their ballots for their election is not "honest" elections. It is precisely this arrogance by election officials that is the problem. All ballots should be filmed & published. All ballot counting should be filmed & broadcast.

@MichelleRM68

Holy crap! Missouri had a total of 78,421 register to vote in just ONE WEEK in February of this year. Out of that number, 23,253 were DEAD PEOPLE! Here we go, AGAIN! I'm not surprised at all, are you? (video)

@nicksortor

WOW: The Mexican government will now be BUSSING illegals from Mexico’s southern border to the U.S. southern border, AND provide a police/military escort with food along the way. THIS IS INSANE! (video)

@DiedSuddenly_

Football star Chance Gainer has died suddenly from a heart attack during Friday’s game. The 18 year-old collapsed on the field and had no pulse when EMTs got to him, and was pronounced dead at the hospital. Chance had “world-class speed” and a better than 4.0 grade point average, with Vanderbilt University knocking. (video)

@TonySeruga

My friend Kary Mullis suspected the man he hated, Dr. Anthony ‘Josef Mengele’ Fauci (listen to Fauci’s threatening voicemail to Kary in my post) and his gang of evil psychopaths were illegally engineering ‘gain-of-function’ viruses. Kary asked me to track the cell phones of a number of individuals to labs in the U.S. (including DoD), China, Ukraine and Taiwan. Finally some news media is acknowledging what we’d known almost from day one and I was banned from Twitter and Facebook for revealing: Chinese Lab Sequenced COVID-19 Weeks Before Beijing Disclosed Data—At the time, Chinese authorities were still calling the disease an unknown pneumonia and threatened most health workers into silence.

@drsimonegold

In the 1960’s children received 5 vaccine shots in total. Today, the CDC says that children should receive 72 vaccine shots, a majority of them before the age of 6. The CDC is known for corruptly advancing Big Pharma interests. This schedule needs to be investigated further. (pic)

@JamesMelville

“The greatest perpetrator of misinformation during the pandemic has been the United States government.” ~ Johns Hopkins Surgeon, Dr. Martin Makary. (video)

@WallStreetSilv

Genius retirement strategy. (pic)

@WallStreetApes

CNN Shows Inside A Hacker Conference Where American Voting Machines Are Examined. ‌ Electronic Voting Machines “used in 18 different states, 8 of which are swing states” are able to be broken into within minutes without tools ‌ “Now you have full admin access on this machine” ‌ “It's having trouble rebooting because there's no card reader. And now you have full admin access on this machine. So you can disrupt the election, you can disrupt people's confidence when you think about admin access, you can think about, like, keys to the castle. (video)
The Kamala Harris Administration is Having 3 New MEGA Illegal Migrants Processing Facilities Built. Each will process estimates of up to 15,000 migrants PER DAY into the United States. - “One is at Bajo Chiquito Village”. - “There's another near Bajo Chiquito Village, which is going to, I don't know, be big enough for maybe 15,000 people per day”. - “On a completely different river, the Rio Membrillo, that we call that the China route, they're building another new camp out there as well”. (video)

@PeterSweden7

This is MASSIVE! Hundreds of thousands of people take to the streets of Brazil to protest for freedom. They are rejecting Socialism. SHARE - The media is hiding this... (video)

@ValerieAnne1970

Have you heard the CDC changed the childhood developmental milestones? They took away crawling as a milestone. Rolling moved from 4 months to 6 months. Walking changed from 12 months to 18 months. Talking changed from 12 months to 15 months. 2yr olds are now expected to only use 2 words together rather than 4 word sentences. 3yr olds are no longer expected to use full sentences. They're moving the goalposts & normalizing delays so that no one questions why. Children deserve better than this...

OpenVAERS:

VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 1,013,375 Reports(+481 from prior report) Through August 2nd, 2024.

SKirsch.com:

Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Night Trading

Asian indices are -1.5% to -.5% on average.
Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 96.75 +1.25 basis points.
China Sovereign CDS 61.0 +1.5 basis points.
China Iron Ore Spot 89.9 USD/Metric Tonne -2.0%.
Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 38.8 -.04%.
Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 48.0 +3.6%.
Volatility Index(VIX) futures 20.4 -2.6%.
Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.13%.
S&P 500 futures +.08%.
NASDAQ 100 futures +.08%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the week.

Saturday, September 07, 2024

Today's Headlines

Posted by Gary .....at 3:54 PM

Around X:

@elonmusk

We need a secure border. Unless Trump wins, meet your new building managers … (pic)

@StephenM

BILLIONS of foreign dollars flow into the US political system. One of the Dems’ largest donors is a Swiss billionaire (there are no restrictions on foreign giving to C3s/C4s). Fortunes are pumped into the US by China, Ukraine, Iran, EU, etc. Democrats have a vast shadowy dark money network whose foreign ties are wholly unexplored. One of the top groups trying to censor your speech on this very platform — the “Center for Countering Digital Hate” is foreign-based and foreign-run. Foreign cash flows like rivers into our corrupt Marxist universities. The Biden Family epitomizes this massive global influence peddling scheme — cash from China, Russia, Ukraine. The Clinton Family epitomizes this massive global influence peddling scheme (remember the Clinton Global Initiative, remember the outrageous sums for paid for Bill Clinton speeches by foreign entities when Hillary was Senator and Secretary of State? Sample headline: “Half of Clinton Speaking Haul is Foreign”). Yet all of this elicits zero interest from the DOJ. Zero, zilch, zippo, nada, none, nothing, negative, not a word.

@glennbeck

@BretWeinstein makes an ominous prediction for November: “I think the Blue Team will NOT win the election. I believe they will be defeated both in the popular vote and the electoral count.” “But it WON’T BE REPORTED that way.” “The Deep State, or whatever it is, uses every trick in the book to bring about an electoral result that it finds favorable. I see the Blue Team as perfectly willing to CHEAT in ways that are visible in public.” “We in the public have to ensure that it is such an OVERWHELMING VICTORY that any capacity to cheat is drowned out by the organic impulse of the American public to retake their nation and put it back on course.” (video)

@BillAckman

I am one of many who have been extraordinarily misled by the media on
@realDonaldTrump. The reporter below outlines a number of important such examples of media manipulation in a four-minute segment that I strongly encourage you to watch. These examples are often the ones that are brought to my attention by friends and family who say: ‘How can you support Trump when he said ….’ When I explain that his excerpted words were presented out of context and give an example like the ‘very fine people’ quote and show them the source video, they are stunned when they realize for the first time that they have been manipulated by the media about Trump for nearly a decade. (video)

@BehizyTweets

BREAKING: Internal documents reveal that the U.S. military and law enforcement are in PANIC over the expanding threat of Venezuelan Tren de Aragua illegal migrant gangsters. They're taking over New York neighborhoods. Around 400 members are already established in the Bronx, Brooklyn, and Williamsburg. The leak reveals that they are constantly expanding their territory across the country. If this continues, we will start seeing rival gang wars in every American city. (video)
Trump is now airing a DEVASTATING ad of Kamala Harris laughing about the border invasion. It’s going up on screens all over the country, especially in the battleground states. (video)

@stillgray

Holy crap. MSNBC guest claims that Elon Musk doesn’t have the right to free speech because it impacts national security and that he needs to be prosecuted. (video)

@kylenabecker

“Kamala Harris is the ultimate puppet.” “My mother is from communist China. I grew up hearing about what the famine was like. Price controls is exactly how you get to a famine. This is Communism 101.” (video)

@LauraLoomer

PLOT TO ACCUSE PRESIDENT TRUMP OF RAPE IS TIED TO MULTIPLE JEFFREY EPSTEIN ASSOCIATES AND A SINCE CLOSED-DOWN NON PROFIT CALLED THE TERRAMAR PROJECT FOUNDED BY GHISLAINE MAXWELL. (video)

@RepThomasMassie

I caught CDC lying in their official publication (MMWR) about efficacy of COVID shots in December 2020. I recorded phone calls of them admitting to me I was right. When they refused to tell the public the truth, I released the recordings to
@SharylAttkisson who exposed them. (video)

@ShadowofEzra

Comedian Jim Breuer reveals that the names on the Epstein list are so powerful and influential that their exposure could bring down governments and topple the entire entertainment industry worldwide. (video)

@captivedreamer7

Absolutely HEARTBREAKING moment Springfield, Ohio, resident tells mayor that she "can't take it anymore" as Haitian migrants squat on her lawn, litter in her yard and harass her and elderly husband daily. The mayor of Springfield does NOT want people to see this: (video)

@DowdEdward

For those who can handle the truth… Your government has: (list)

@Libsoftiktok

The Biden admin quietly announced $380 million in funding for illegals released from DHS custody into our country. Meanwhile Americans can’t afford groceries, Hawaii fire victims got $700, and many veterans are homeless. Democrats prioritize illegals over Americans. (pic)

@Geiger_Capital

I thought this was a typo… In just August, 635k immigrants (legal and illegal) gained a job. Meanwhile, 1.325 MILLION native-born Americans LOST their job. Since pre-Covid, native-born workers have LOST 2 million jobs. All of the net job gains are immigrants. (graph)

@BelannF

THIS MASS KILLING WILL BE OFF THE FRONT PAGE FAIRLY QUICKLY BECAUSE ACCORDING TO HIS PROFILE HE WAS GAY AND A KAMALA SUPPORTER - The shooter called Trump supporters Maggots. Why isn't the MSM talking about this I wonder? (video)

@MaxEvansUMP

Italy's Georgia Meloni confirms that leftists around the world are only in power because they STEAL elections. (video)

@MichelleRM68

Remember when Democrats threw out ALL of the Republican poll watchers in Philly?? Pam Bondi & Corey Lewandowski had to file an emergency motion in federal court? Nothing was done & no one was arrested! Yeah, that happened & they'll do it AGAIN! (video)

@WallStreetApes

CNN Shows Inside A Hacker Conference Where American Voting Machines Are Examined. ‌ Electronic Voting Machines “used in 18 different states, 8 of which are swing states” are able to be broken into within minutes without tools. ‌ “Now you have full admin access on this machine”. ‌ “It's having trouble rebooting because there's no card reader. And now you have full admin access on this machine. So you can disrupt the election, you can disrupt people's confidence when you think about admin access, you can think about, like, keys to the castle. ‌ When you have admin access, you own the machine. You can get it to do what you want it to do. So you can imagine that being very nefarious. (video)

@WallStreetSilv

Just about every other country has banned mail-in voting because of the fraud potential. Why do Democrats want to keep doing it? (list)

@VigilantFox

Vivek Ramaswamy: “There Are Strong Forces Trying to Stop You from Hearing About This Film”. Over 170 million children are trapped in child labor worldwide, including in the U.S. Slavery in America “exists today in a new form,” and nobody is talking about it. They don't want you to know that children are being sold into slavery at sweatshops in downtown Los Angeles. (video)
WATCH: Joe Rogan asks why Democrats would lie, cheat, and steal in every other aspect of life but not do the same thing in elections. (video)

@JackPosobiec

Pay close attention to anyone who is against this. Close attention... (video)

@CollinRugg

NEW: Mark Cuban gets flustered & says "no" 16 times after CNBC host Rebecca Quick said Kamala is just telling people what they want to hear. "No, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no," Cuban said. The "no" comment came after Cuban said Harris' plan to tax unrealized gains would crash the stock market. Cuban then assured the hosts that the Harris campaign told him "they realize" that taxing unrealized gains is an issue. This is completely different than what the Harris campaign is saying publicly which is that they plan on taxing rich people on their unrealized gains. Quick then called out the Harris campaign for telling voters something much different than what she is saying behind the scenes. (video)

@ChuckCallesto

On August 12, 2024, the Democratic National Committee announced in a memo that it plans to invest a substantial six-figure sum to gather up to 9 MILLION Democratic votes from abroad. HERE IS THE PROBLEM: The DNC aims to secure the votes of about 9 million Americans via its Democrats Abroad website, a target that appears unrealistic. A recent federal report indicates that ONLY 4.4 million US citizens live overseas, with just 2.8 million of them eligible to vote.
BREAKING REPORT: Illegal arrested in Kenner, Louisiana for KIDN*PPING AND R*PE of a 13-year-old girl. THIS IS KAMALA’S AMERICA.. The man purportedly lured the child into his vehicle and when she noticed he was going in the wrong direction he pulled out a knife.. He then forced the child into his trailer and ass*ulted her.. (video)
JUST IN: Kamala Harris surrogate Rep. Ro Khanna went on CNBC this morning and SLAMMED HER PLAN to tax unrealized gains. Her OWN SURROGATES dispose her plan... (video)

@Holden_Culotta

RFK Jr. delivers a stark warning on the “emergence of totalitarianism in all the Western democracies”. “It’s like nothing I could have ever imagined. Europe no longer has free speech. The European Union is officially censoring information on the internet. The head of the European Commission, a man named Thierry Breton, recently sent a letter to Elon Musk saying that if he aired a live interview with President Trump on 𝕏, he would be fined as much as 6% of the value of the company. And then France, a week later, arrests Pavel Durov, the founder of Telegram, when he lands on a fuel stop in France. This is particularly alarming, because France has a passion and tradition for free speech as we have in this country.” (video)

@TrumpWarRoom

@VivekGRamaswamy: Kamala Harris was one of the strongest proponents for a ban on fracking — so much so that when she was in California, she sued the OBAMA administration over granting fracking permits. She didn't just favor the abolition of private health insurance — she was a CO-SPONSOR of the bill with Bernie Sanders for Medicare For All. She said she would end the filibuster in the Senate to ram through the Green New Deal. (video)

@DC_Draino

Trump was banned off social media. His house was raided by Biden’s FBI. He was indicted in GA, NY & FL He got a superseding indictment in DC last week. Secret Service failures got him shot in the ear. And what does AG Garland say? “Russia is trying to interfere in the election”.
True the Vote will be installing surveillance cameras in swing states to monitor drop boxes. They’ll be working with local sheriffs to prosecute ballot mules. Lots of drop boxes in 2020 had cameras that either didn’t work or were unmonitored. This is how we go on offense to stop the steal. (video)

@DogRightGirl

This North Korean explains how communism starts. Brainwashing students. Listen to every word. (video)

@JDunlap1974

Tucker Carlson Exposes Kamala Harris Is Owed By BlackRock. - She creates the housing crisis with illegal migrants. - BlackRock buys all the homes. - BlackRock skyrockets rents. - Illegal immigrants are put on housing vouchers. This is RACKETEERING organized crime. (video)
Black pastor in Chicago lays out what we all knew, on how Democrats steal elections in corrupt inner cities. (video)

@TimRunsHisMouth

This lady spits fire at the liberals in Chicago... This is incredible. We need more people standing up like her. (video)
Trump is way ahead... Here's CNN beginning to panic about it. (video)

@TonySeruga

Using GPS the same dirtbag retired FBI Special Agent we’ve linked to other shooters was within 1,000 feet of this shooter’s mobile devices 11 times in 14 months. That is not a coincidence.

@IGSquawk

Weekend Markets update: #DAX 18222.1 -0.02% #DOW 40244.3 -0.04% #NASDAQ 18346.9 +0.00% #FTSE 8158.1 -0.03% #HANGSENG 17170.4 -0.01% #GBPUSD 13122.3 -0.09% #EURUSD 11084.5 -0.02% #USDJPY 14235.2 +0.00% #SPOTGOLD 2500.8 +0.23%.

Friday, September 06, 2024

Stocks Finish Sharply Lower on US Economic Data, Earnings Outlook Jitters, Yen Strength, Tech/Alt Energy Sector Weakness

Posted by Gary .....at 4:10 PM

Broad Equity Market Tone:

Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower

Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Declining

Volume: Around Average

Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line

Equity Investor Angst:

Volatility(VIX) 22.8 +14.3%
DJIA Intraday % Swing 1.61 +16.8%
Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 47.7 -4.7%

Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 174.2 -1.0%

Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.9 unch.

CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 24.6 +18.9%

ISE Sentiment Index 126.0 -9.0 points

Total Put/Call 1.15 +36.9%

NYSE Arms 1.21 -6.9%
NYSE Non-Block Money Flow -$266.7M

Credit Investor Angst:

North American Investment Grade CDS Index 53.3 +3.3%

US Energy High-Yield OAS 329.04 +4.2%
Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 262 +13

European Financial Sector CDS Index 64.2 +2.4%
Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 166.8 +.34%

Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 145.0 basis points +2.0 basis points

Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 95.7 +.34%

Emerging Market CDS Index 168.2 +1.2%
Israel Sovereign CDS 134.5 -.43%

China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.76 -.28%

2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -21.25 basis points -1.0 basis point

Treasury Repo 3M T-Bill Spread -27.25 basis points -1.5 basis points

3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -2.5 -.5 basis point
MBS 5/10 Treasury Spread 129.0 -4.0 basis points
Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 705.0 +6.0 basis points
Avg. Auto ABS OAS 67.0 unch.

Economic Gauges:

Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 38.8 -.33%
3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.05% -1.0 basis point

China Iron Ore Spot 90.25 USD/Metric Tonne -1.6%
Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 36.48 euros/megawatt-hour +.78%

Citi US Economic Surprise Index -30.1 -.6 point

Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -43.6 +7.2 points

Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -8.8 -.8
S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(498 of 500 reporting) +11.6% +.2 percentage point
S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 266.18 +.11: Growth Rate +13.9% unch., P/E 20.3 -.3
S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.65% -4.0 basis points
NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(9 of 10 reporting) +36.3% unch.
NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 347.88 +.97: Growth Rate +22.2% -.5 percentage point, P/E 30.1 -1.1
Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .52 +6.0 basis points
Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index .61 -9.0 basis points
US Yield Curve 5.5 basis point (2s/10s) +7.75 basis points
US Atlanta Fed 3Q GDPNow Forecast +2.09% unch.
US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 73.1% +.8 percentage point

Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.74% unch.: CPI YoY +2.56% unch.
10-Year TIPS Spread 2.03 -1.0 basis point
Highest target rate probability for Nov. 7th FOMC meeting: 52.4%(+3.5 percentage points) chance of 4.5%-4.75%. Highest target rate probability for Dec. 18th meeting: 40.6%(+6.9 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%.

Overseas Futures:

Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -1,081 open in Japan
China A50 Futures: Indicating -75 open in China

DAX Futures: Indicating +2 open in Germany

Portfolio:

Slightly Higher: On gains in my index hedges and emerging market shorts

Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges, then covered some

Market Exposure: 25% Net Long

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