Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Value -.8%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Homebuilding -2.5% 2) Steel -2.5% 3) Gold & Silver -2.2%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• ADBE, RBRK, CSWC, AMD, KROS, TOL, MDB, CRSP, KRYS, SMLR, SG and BCYC
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) AVGO 2) RH 3) BEKE 4) XLI 5) CRVS
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) CADL 2) EDIT 3) BCYC 4) FFIC 5) AIXI
  

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

• 1) XLF 2) IYF 3) FTXL 4) XLI 5) XLY

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth +.1%
  

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Semis +2.9% 2) Networking +1.9% 3) Cyber Security +1.1%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• AVGO, SOUN, MESO, RH, BNED, UPST, AAOI, TASK, IONQ, CRDO, SERV, MRVL, BKKT, PLAY, CLS, STVN, ARQT, RIOT, CIEN, ALAB, OXM, TSM, PGR, FPI, ANET, ARM, PENN, WBA, MU, MXL, LOVE, XPER and RTO
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) RH 2) XLI 3) LW 4) UGI 5) AVGO

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) AVGO 2) RH 3) UPST 4) MU 5) MRVL
  

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) XLV 2) XBI 3) XHB 4) VGT 5) JETS
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Monday's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• None of note
  

After the Close: 

• (CMP)/.01
• (MITK)/.17
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• Empire Manufacturing for Dec. is estimated to fall to 10.0 versus 31.2 in Nov.
  

9:45 am EST

• S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI for Dec. is estimated to fall to 49.5 versus 49.7 in Nov.
• S&P Global US Services PMI for Dec. is estimated to fall to 55.7 versus 56.1 in Nov.
• S&P Global US Compositie PMI for Dec. is estimated to rise to 55.1 versus 54.9 in Nov.
  

Upcoming Splits

• (TSCO) 5-for-1
• (PANW) 2-for-1
• (PATK) 3-for-2
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The NYC Summit and the (UNFI) annual meeting could also impact global trading on Monday.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -7.6% Below 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 14.1 -1.6
  
• 8 Sectors Declining, 3 Sectors Rising
• 26.8% of Issues Advancing, 71.4% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms .74 -14.9%
  
• Non-Block Money Flow -$209.0M
  
• 37 New 52-Week Highs, 102 New Lows
• 59.6% (-2.2%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 40.0 -5.0
  

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 68.3 -.2%
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 251.2 -.11%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 21,492.1 +.2%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 50.0 (NEUTRAL) -2.0
  
• 1-Day Vix 7.9 -9.1%
  
• Vix 14.1 +1.4%
  
• Total Put/Call .85 -3.4%

Friday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.75% to +.25% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 69.5 +.25 basis point.

• China Sovereign CDS 61.25 unch.
  
• China Iron Ore Spot 104.3 USD/Metric Tonne -1.7%

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.4 -.07%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 68.8 +.5%.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 16.2 -.6%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.18%

• S&P 500 futures +.10%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.42%.  

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by commodity and financial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Modestly Lower into Final Hour on US Policy-Induced Stagflation Fears, Dollar Strength, Technical Selling, Commodity/Healthcare Sector Weakness

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.4 -.1%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.33% -3.0 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 104.7 USD/Metric Tonne -1.3%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 42.8 euros/megawatt-hour -4.2%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 20.1 -5.6 points
  

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -25.2 +.7 point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -1.7 -.6
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(3 of 500 reporting) +8.9% unch.
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 270.91 +.07:  Growth Rate +13.5% unch., P/E 22.4 -.1
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.57% -1.0 basis point
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 384.72 -.14: Growth Rate +22.8% +.1 percentage point, P/E 34.6 -.1
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .92 +6.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.06 -36.0 basis points
  
• US Yield Curve 13.75 basis points (2s/10s) +3.0 basis points
  
• US Atlanta Fed Q4 GDPNow Forecast +3.33% unch.
  
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 30.0% -1.6 percentage points
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.97% unch.: CPI YoY +2.86% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.34 +3.0 basis points
  
• Highest target rate probability for Jan. 29th FOMC meeting: 73.7%(-3.5 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. Highest target rate probability for March 19th meeting: 52.1%(-3.7 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. (current target rate is 4.5-4.75%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -29 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -148 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +10 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Lower:  On losses in my financial/industrial/consumer discretionary sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades: None
  

• Market Exposure: 75% Net Long