Tuesday, December 27, 2022

Stocks Reversing Lower into Final Hour on Passage of Stagflationary Omnibus Spending Bill, Rising Fed Rate-Hike Odds, Emerging Markets/US High-Yield Debt Angst, Tech/Biotech Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume:  Light
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 21.9 +4.7%
  • DJIA Intraday % Swing .96%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 56.5 +1.7%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 147.0 +.47%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.8 -.3%
  • CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 44.99 +1.1% 
  • ISE Sentiment Index 106.0 +2.0 points
  • Total Put/Call .99 -1.0%
  • NYSE Arms .84 +2.4%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 80.5 -.22%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 378.96 -.83%
  • Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 339.0 -23.0
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 103.59 +.68% 
  • Credit Suisse Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 449.09 n/a
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 211.0 basis points +1.0 basis point
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 134.79 +.68%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 239.44 -.34%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 27.4 -.04%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 28.0 basis points -.5 basis points
  • TED Spread 44.75 basis points -.25 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -30.5 basis points unch.
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  142.0 +3.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg US Agg CMBS Avg OAS 119.0 unch.
  • Avg. Auto ABS OAS .90 -1.0 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 47.8 -.36%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.26% -2.0 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 113.3 USD/Metric Tonne -.1%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 80.99 euros/megawatt-hour -2.4%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -5.80 unch.
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 69.8 +.8 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -20.8 -1.0 point
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 229.80 +.07:  Growth Rate +10.9% -.4 percentage point, P/E 16.7 unch.
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -.38 +2.0 basis points
  • Yield Curve -55.0 basis points (2s/10s) +2.75 basis points
  • US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Forecast +3.66% unch.
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +4.52% unch.: CPI YoY +6.69% unch.
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.28 +5.0 basis points
  • Highest target rate probability for March 22nd FOMC meeting: 55.8%(+.1 percentage point) chance of 4.75%-5.0%. Highest target rate probability for May 3rd meeting: 40.5%(+9.2 percentage points) chance of 5.0%-5.25%.
US Covid-19:
  • 154 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 8.9%(+.0 percentage point) of 1/14/22 peak(1,740) +0/100K people from prior report.
  • New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -75.0%(+.0 percentage points) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/22 - 1/15/22
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -260 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +65 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +43 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Lower:  On losses in my tech sector longs and emerging market shorts
  • Disclosed Trades:  Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 25% Net Long

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

  • Volume Running -29.6% Below 100-Day Average 
  • 5 Sectors Declining, 6 Sectors Rising
  • 61.8% of Issues Advancing, 34.4% Declining
  • 50 New 52-Week Highs, 78 New Lows
  • 39.6%(+3.0%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 50.0 +1.0
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 56.3 +1.3%
  • Russell 1000: Growth/Value 14,106.9 -.72%
  • Vix 22.3 +6.7%
  • Total Put/Call 1.03 +3.0%
  • TRIN/Arms .83 +1.2% 

Monday, December 26, 2022

Tuesday Watch

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:                 
CNBC:
Zero Hedge:   
MarketWatch.com:        
TheGatewayPundit.com:  
Twitter:
OpenVAERS:
SKirsch.com:
Covid-19(Data, Maps, Graphs):
Night Trading
  • Asian indices are unch. to +.5% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 133.75 +1.0 basis point.
  • China Sovereign CDS 78.25 +1.5 basis points.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 111.1 USD/Metric Tonne +.41%
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 47.8 +.01%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 55.5 +.02%.
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -.45 -5.0 basis points. 
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 23.4 -1.2%. 
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.60%.
  • S&P 500 futures +.59%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.71%.

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate

Before the Open:
  • None of note
After the Close:
  • None of note
Economic Releases 
8:30 am EST
  • Wholesale Inventories MoM for Nov. is estimated to rise +.4% versus a +.5% gain in Oct.
  • Advance Goods Trade Deficit for Nov. is estimated at -$96.8B versus -$99.0B in Oct.
  • Retail Inventories MoM for Nov. is estimated to fall -.1% versus a -.2% decline in Oct.
  • The FHFA House Price Index MoM for Oct. is estimated to fall -.7% versus a +.1% gain in Sept.
  • The S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA for Oct. is estimated to fall -1.15% versus a -1.24% decline in Sept.
  • The S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA for Oct. is estimated to rise +8.0% versus a +10.43% gain in Sept.
10:30 am EST
  • The Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity Index for Dec. is estimated to fall to -15.0 versus -14.4 in Nov.
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Japan Industrial Production report and 2Y T-Note auction could also impact trading today.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly higher, boosted by commodity and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the week.

Saturday, December 24, 2022

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:

Barron's:
  • Had bullish commentary on (MAT), (COST), (ISRG), (CMG) and (SG).
  • Had bearish commentary on (CAKE).

Fox News: 

CNBC:
Zero Hedge:

MarketWatch.com:     

NewsMax: 
TheGatewayPundit.com:
The Epoch Times:
Twitter:
OpenVAERS:
SKirsch.com: