Stocks Soaring into Final Hour on Decisive Trump/GOP Victories, Lessoned Mid-East Regional War Fears, Diminished US Policy-Induced Stagflation Fears, Financial/Transport Sector Strength

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 38.10 -.26%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.54% +1.0 basis point
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 103.60 USD/Metric Tonne -.33%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 40.39 euros/megawatt-hour -.26%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 35.6 -.2 point
  

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 18.1 +11.1 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -3.8 -.2 point
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(400 of 500 reporting) +6.8% -.7 percentage point
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 268.55 -.06:  Growth Rate +15.0% unch., P/E 22.0 +.5
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.54% -4.0 basis points
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(7 of 10 reporting) +25.7% unch.
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 376.29 +.19: Growth Rate +32.2% +.1 percentage point, P/E 32.2 +.6
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .73 +11.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.10 +7.0 basis points
  
• US Yield Curve 16.0 basis point (2s/10s) +7.75 basis points
  
• US Atlanta Fed Q4 GDPNow Forecast +2.38% unch.
  
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 33.6% -3.6 percentage points
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.74% unch.: CPI YoY +2.56% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.40 +10.0 basis points
  
• Highest target rate probability for Dec. 18th FOMC meeting: 70.6%(-6.7 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. Highest target rate probability for Jan. 29th meeting: 53.8%(+6.1 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. (current target rate is 4.75-5.0%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +520 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -11 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +141 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher:  On gains in my tech/financial/consumer discretionary/industrial sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges, took profits in biotech sector longs and added financial sector longs
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long
  

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (APD)/3.48
• (MT)/.53
• (BDX)/3.77
• (CCJ)/.02
• (GOOS)/-.04
• (CARS)/.45
• (DDOG)/.40
• (DCO)/.60
• (DUK)/1.70
• (HAL)/.75
• (HSY)/2.56
• (MRNA)/-1.94
• (TAP)/1.67
• (MUR)/.64 
• (PZZA)/.43
• (RL)/2.42
• (ROK)/2.40
• (SEE)/.67
• (SHOP)/.27
• (STRA)/.80
• (TPR)/.95
• (TGLS)/1.00
• (TDG)/9.26
• (UAA)/.19
• (WRBY)/.05
• (WWW)/.22
• (YETI)/.67
  

After the Close: 

• (AFRM)/-.32
• (ABNB)/2.14
• (ANET)/2.08
• (AXON)/1.20
• (SQ)/.88
• (NET)/.18
• (ED)/1.59
• (DKNG)/-.41
• (EOG)/2.78
• (EXPE)/6.05
• (FTNT)/.52
• (HRB)/-1.21
• (MNST)/.43
• (MYGN)/.02 
• (PINS)/.34
• (RDFN)/-.20
• (RNG)/.92
• (TTD)/.39
• (TDW)/1.07
• (TOST)/.14
• (YELP)/.42
• (DDS)/6.50
• (ELAN)/.12

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• 3Q Non-Farm Productivity is estimated to rise +2.5% versus a +2.5% gain in 2Q.
• 3Q Unit Labor Costs are estimated to rise +1.0% versus a +.4% gain in 2Q.
• Initial Jobless Claims for last week is estimated to rise to 223K versus 216K the prior week.
• Continuing Claims is estimated to rise to 1870K versus 1862K prior.
  

10:00 am EST

• Wholesale Trade Sales MoM for Sept. is estimated to rise +.1% versus a -.1% decline in Aug.
  

2:00 pm EST

• The FOMC is expected to cut the benchmark Fed Funds rate -.25 basis points to 4.5-4.75%.

3:00 pm EST

• Consumer Credit for Sept. is estimated to rise to 12.10B versus $8.929B in Aug.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The FOMC press conference, Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q4 update, Fed's weekly balance sheet report, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report, Truist Healthcare Conference, (SSYS) annual meeting, (CSX) investor day, (NXPI) investor day and the (VEEV) investor day could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Afternoon Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +96.1% Above 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 9.0 -8.9
  
• 3 Sectors Declining, 8 Sectors Rising
• 60.6% of Issues Advancing, 38.1% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms .84 -12.5%
  
• Non-Block Money Flow +$212.6M
  
• 450 New 52-Week Highs, 50 New Lows
• 63.6% (+8.6%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 65.0 +5.0
  

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 68.4 +7.3%
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 249.0 +5.7%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 20,022.6 -.34%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 57.0 (GREED) +13.0
  
• 1-Day Vix 13.8 -54.8%
  
• Vix 16.2 -20.7%
  
• Total Put/Call .75 -23.5%

Wednesday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.75% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 72.75 -2.25 basis points.

• China Sovereign CDS 65.0 -1.5 basis points.
  
• China Iron Ore Spot 104.0 USD/Metric Tonne -1.3%

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 38.1 -.22%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 64.9 +1.9%.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 17.5 -2.5%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.25%.

• S&P 500 futures +.49%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.25%.  

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by industrial and consumer shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to maintain gains into the afternoon.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Surging into Final Hour on Trump 62%-38% Betting Market Lead, Lower Long-Term Rates, China Stimulus Hopes, Tech/Transport Sector Strength

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 38.20 +.25%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.53% +2.0 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 105.4 USD/Metric Tonne +.01%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 40.49 euros/megawatt-hour +.47%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 35.8 +3.9 points
  

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 6.9 -.3 point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -3.6 +.8 point
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(384 of 500 reporting) +7.5% -.8 percentage point
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 268.61 -.09:  Growth Rate +15.0% -.1 percentage point, P/E 21.5 +.3
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.58% -2.0 basis points
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(7 of 10 reporting) +25.7% unch.
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 376.10 +.58: Growth Rate +32.1% +.2 percentage point, P/E 31.6 +.5
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .62 -2.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.03 -13.0 basis points
  
• US Yield Curve 8.25 basis point (2s/10s) -5.0 basis points
  
• US Atlanta Fed Q4 GDPNow Forecast +2.38% +6.0 basis points
  
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 37.2% -.4 percentage point
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.74% unch.: CPI YoY +2.56% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.30 +1.0 basis point
  
• Highest target rate probability for Dec. 18th FOMC meeting: 75.7%(-3.9 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. Highest target rate probability for Jan. 29th meeting: 47.0%(+.5 percentage point) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. (current target rate is 4.75-5.0%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +530 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +60 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +91 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher:  On gains in my tech/biotech/utility/consumer discretionary/industrial sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Value +.8%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Steel -1.2% 2) Gambling -.8% 3) Pharma -.6%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• CSTL, GN, HUN, HOLX, VOYA, ST, NXPI, XPOF, APLS, CRUS, RACE, AZN, ADM, AGCO, BERY, TEM, CLF, WYNN, TKR, BWIN, BFAM, TDC, BVS, AOSL, CE, MAX and JELD
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) CPNG 2) FYBR 3) HST 4) ADM 5) BEN
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) CE 2) ADM 3) MQ 4) JELD 5) TCMD
  

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

• 1) XLP 2) XLI 3) XLF 4) KRE 5) XLB

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume