Tuesday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.5% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 77.0 +.25 basis point.

• China Sovereign CDS 65.0 unch.
  
• China Iron Ore Spot 100.2 USD/Metric Tonne -1.1%

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.1 -.05%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 69.1 +.3%.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 17.0 -.2%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures n/a.

• S&P 500 futures -.04%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.11%.  

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and consumer shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the close, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Reversing Modestly Higher into Final Hour on Earnings Outlook Optimism, Seasonal Strength, Technical Buying, Tech/Healthcare Sector Strength

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.1 -.2%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.32% unch.
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 100.4 USD/Metric Tonne -.9%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 45.5 euros/megawatt-hour +3.2%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 5.1 -5.1 points
  

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -2.2 +3.7 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -3.1 -.7 point
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(19 of 500 reporting) +21.2% unch.
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 271.0 +.15:  Growth Rate +13.5% unch., P/E 22.0 unch.
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.55% unch.
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 387.02 +.34: Growth Rate +23.4% +.1 percentage point, P/E 34.8 +.1
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .61 +23.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.40 +23.0 basis points
  
• US Yield Curve 24.75 basis points (2s/10s) +4.25 basis points
  
• US Atlanta Fed Q4 GDPNow Forecast +3.08% unch.
  
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 23.7% -.5 percentage point
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.87% unch.: CPI YoY +2.86% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.33 +3.0 basis point
  
• Highest target rate probability for March 19th FOMC meeting: 54.9% (+7.3 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. Highest target rate probability for May 7th meeting: 46.1%(+2.0 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +134 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +32 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +215 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher:  On gains in my tech/industrial/financial/utility sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth -.4%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Gambling -1.4% 2) Digital Health -.8% 3) Computer Services -.7%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• ARM, SPTN, IIPR, PPTA and SOUN
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) RUM 2) APA 3) TLRY 4) IHRT 5) FTAI
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) TCSG 2) APLT 3) ZETA 4) FLUX 5) BIOA
  

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

• 1) XLY 2) KOMP 3) QTEC 4) XAR 5) XSD

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Mid-Cap Growth +2.1%
  

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Semis +3.1% 2) Shipping +1.7% 3) Pharma +1.5%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• RUM, DESP, AVXL, PLYA, RGTI, NFE, HMC, NNE, MESO, AXGN, FORM, HSAI, LUNR, QUBT, TSM, AVGO, PONY, BWLP, AMD, INVX, NVO, ASX, RCAT, STNG
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) INVZ 2) RUM 3) TLRY 4) APA 5) ALK

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) TXRP 2) RUM 3) OCC 4) AVGO 5) FPAY
  

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) MSTY 2) VGT 3) XLF 4) QTUM 5) XBI
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• None of note
  

After the Close: 

• None of note
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• The Philly Fed Non-Manufacturing Index for Dec.
  

10:00 am EST

• The Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index for Dec. is estimated to rise to -10 from -14 in Nov.
  

Upcoming Splits

• (CRVL) 3-for-1
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q4 update, 5Y T-Note auction, M2 Money Supply MoM, Dallas Fed PCE for Nov., weekly US retail sales reports and the API weekly crude oil stock report could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 1:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -8.8% Below 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 16.5 +7.5
  
• 8 Sectors Declining, 3 Sectors Rising
• 29.9% of Issues Advancing, 68.0% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms .96 +65.5%
  
• Non-Block Money Flow -$277.2M
  
• 10 New 52-Week Highs, 109 New Lows
• 51.1% (-2.4%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 28.0 -4.0
  

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 67.5 +1.8%
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 253.2 +.4%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 22,148.6 +.9%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 27.0 (FEAR) -1.0
  
• 1-Day Vix 12.6 -27.7%
  
• Vix 18.7 +1.9%
  
• Total Put/Call 1.15 +17.4%