Wednesday, May 14, 2025

Thursday Watch

Around X:

  • @ElonMusk
  • @ZeroHedge
  • @MarioNawful
  • SCOTT JENNINGS: WE LIVED THROUGH THE BIGGEST COVERUP IN MODERN POLITICAL HISTORY—BIDEN’S DECLINE WAS OBVIOUS. "The idea that we didn’t know about Biden’s decline is outrageous. Video after video, the H.E.R. report—everyone saw it. The fact that Schumer was only worried about optics, not the president’s cognitive state, speaks volumes. The coverup is the greatest scandal in modern American political history." (video)
  • EMIR PRESENTS POTUS WITH BALL FROM 2022 FIFA WORLD CUP IN QATAR. Qatar’s Emir handed Trump an official ball from the 2022 FIFA World Cup, symbolically passing the torch (well, ball) to the U.S., host of the 2026 tournament. The exchange marks a diplomatic bridge—fútbol-style—from the Middle East to America’s stadiums, as excitement shifts stateside. (video) 
  • TRUMP ON SYRIA’S AL-JOLANI: YOUNG, ATTRACTIVE GUY, TOUGH GUY…REAL SHOT AT HOLDING IT TOGETHER. “I think very good, young, attractive guy, tough guy. You know, strong past, very strong past. Despite his outward image, he's got a real shot at pulling it together.” (video) 
  • SEN. MIKE LEE: JUDGES AREN’T PRESIDENTS—COURT MUST STOP THEM FROM BLOCKING EXECUTIVE POWER. “There’s been a deterioration in understanding the difference between a judge and a president. Judges aren’t politicians—they shouldn’t make executive decisions. Too many judges slow things down with injunctions, denying the president part of his presidency. I hope the court clamps down and says: you’re depriving him of his presidency.” (video) 
  • FEDERAL NON-DEFENSE OBLIGATIONS DROP 20.5% UNDER DOGE ORDER. Non-defense federal obligations for 2025 are down 20.5% from last year—and the cash outlay curve is about to follow. The driver: Persistent government-wide contract reviews targeting wasteful spending under the DOGE Cost Efficiency Executive Order. Trump’s directive to streamline the federal sprawl is hitting real numbers now, not just headlines. With obligations shrinking before payouts, it’s a sign that cutting through bureaucracy might finally be cheaper than fueling it. Accountability isn’t just a buzzword—it’s starting to dent the federal checkbook. (graph)
  • CANCER TECH BETS BIG ON U.S.—THANKS TO TARIFFS. Siemens Healthineers is moving its Varian cancer device production from Mexico to California, and it’s not just for the sunshine. Trump-era tariffs made importing too pricey, so now they’re spending $150 million to build in Palo Alto instead. They’re also flexing with giant supply hubs and a flashy “Experience Center” in North Carolina, because nothing says healthcare like corporate vibes. Bottom line: “Made in America” isn’t just a slogan—it’s a survival strategy. 
  • UAE ABOUT TO HOARD HALF A MILLION AI CHIPS A YEAR. The U.S. is this close to letting the UAE import 500,000 of Nvidia’s brain-melting AI chips annually—yes, the same ones tech giants fight over like Pokémon cards. 100K are headed straight to G42, run by Sheikh Tahnoon, who also happens to be the UAE’s national security boss. The rest will go to U.S. companies like Microsoft and Oracle, who might just build massive AI hubs in the desert. If finalized, the Gulf could become AI’s “third pole” after the U.S. and China
  • @LauraLoomer
  • @TheTranscript
  • Jabil CFO: "So no major fears now. I think there's always going to be changes. There's always going to be puts and takes, but I think we've fended off a big recession, in my view."
  • Cisco double beat. CEO: "Cisco once again had strong quarterly results...The momentum we are seeing with AI..." CFO: "Another quarter of solid execution in Q3 drove revenue, margins and EPS above our guidance ranges,”" $CSCO: +3.5% AH.
  • @LizCrokin
  • @RodDMartin
  • @DerrickEvans4WV
  • @TheStormRedux
  • @Geiger_Capital  
  • Wow. RFK Jr. just lost it on Democrats… “Look at our children! They’re the sickest in the world. DeLauro, you said you’ve worked for 20 years to get food dye out. Give me credit: I got it out in 100 days. Let’s work together and have healthy kids in our country for God’s sake.” (video)
  • @kylenabecker
  • @LeadingReport
  • @IanJaeger29 
  • Primary Challenges for any Republican Senator that votes against codifying DOGE spending cuts into law. This is ridiculous. (pic)
  • @C_3C_3
  • The last 15 Presidents. Bills passed by Congress in first 100 days… Trump: 5 Biden: 10 Obama: 14 GW Bush: 7 Clinton: 11 Reagan: 9 Carter: 12 Ford: 15 Nixon: 10 Johnson: 20 Kennedy: 15 Eisenhower: 12 Truman: 55. Unacceptable with majorities in the House and Senate.
  • @Libsoftiktok
  • @EricLDaugh
  • @catturd2
  • If you want to know who the corrupt thieves are in the Republican Senate who are in on the money laundering scam that DOGE has uncovered ... they're not hard to find. (pic)
  • @ChrisMartzWX
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.5% on average. 
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 79.0 -1.0 basis point. 
  • China Sovereign CDS 51.5 -.5 basis point.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 101.3 USD/Metric Tonne -.6%
  • Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.58 +.23%.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.98 +.04%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 70.8 -.8%.
  • US 10-Year Yield 4.53% unch.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 19.9 +.5%.
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.09%. 
  • S&P 500 futures -.11%. 
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.01%.
Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by industrial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Slightly Higher into Final Hour on US-Global Trade Deals, Rising US Growth Acceleration Odds, Short-Covering, Tech/Shipping Sector Strength

Economic Gauges:

  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.98 +.06% 
  • US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.53% +7.0 basis points
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.39% +2.0 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 101.2 USD/Metric Tonne -.6%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 35.0 euros/megawatt-hour -2.0%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -7.1 +1.2 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 15.6 -.2 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 26.8 -.1 point
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(455 of 500 reporting) +12.2% unch.
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 276.34 -.16:  Growth Rate +12.1% unch., P/E 21.4 +.1
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.33% -1.0 basis point
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(7 of 10 reporting) +29.1% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 425.38 +.25: Growth Rate +23.0% +.1 percentage point, P/E 32.1 +.2
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .37 +2.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.25 -5.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 8.6 unch.
  • US Yield Curve 47.25 basis points (2s/10s) -1.0 basis point
  • US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +2.3% unch.
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 37.5% -.1 percentage point
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.60% unch.: CPI YoY +2.38% -2.0 basis points
  • 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.85 +5.0 basis points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.38 +4.0 basis points
  • Highest target rate probability for July 30th FOMC meeting: 63.3% (-1.8 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. Highest target rate probability for Sept. 17th meeting: 49.6%(-2.1 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -393 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +10 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +40 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Higher: On gains in my consumer discretionary/technology/financial sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 100% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

  • Small-Cap Value -.7%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Homebuilding -2.6% 2) Pharma -2.5% 3) Gold & Silver -2.4%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • TGLS, BULL, HALO, RELY, PONY, GLOB, AEO, ALC, CAE, KVYO, LOAR, LEGN, SPRY, SMLR, HRTG, CLPT, CLBT, GLBE, GRAL and DAVA
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) XP 2) AEO 3) FL 4) AU 5) URA
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) AEO 2) DNUT 3) ARCO 4) HALO 5) NPWR
Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:
  • 1) XRT 2) XLV 3) XLF 4) XLP 5) XBI

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

  • Large-Cap Growth +.6%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Shipping +2.4% 2) Social Media +2.4% 3) Electric Vehicles +1.6%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • NPCE, EXEL, KRNT, SMCI, RGTI, LUXE, OKLO, TME, ECG, LQDA, RKLB, RDDT, SATS, WING, ALHC, AXGN, PVH, KRMN, RUN, IIIV, PERI, SMR, NTCL, GCT, CVNA, TSEM, ENPH, ARM, SE, CRWV, AFRM, SOUN, IGT, ZIM, DT, TSLA, ACHR, LITE, AMD, LUNR, GOOGL, ALAB, UTI, GOOG, ODD, SYM, OMCL, CIM, OMCL, COCO, TARS, AMPL, CP and AEVA
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) EXE 2) UMC 3) TSLY 4) NWL 5) TME
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) SMCI 2) SWVL 3) EXEL 4) SEPN 5) NUTX
Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:
  • 1) MSTY 2) XLY 3) XLI 4) XLK 5) SMH
Charts:

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:
  • (WMS)/1.06
  • (BABA)/12.56
  • (BIRK)/.54
  • (CSIQ)/-1.16
  • (DE)/5.56
  • (MRX)/.89
  • (NTES)/13.91
  • (NICE)/2.84
  • (WMT)/.58
After the Close: 
  • (AMAT)/2.31
  • (CAVA)/.14
  • (DOCS)/.27
  • (LGF/A)/.42
  • (TTWO)/1.10
  • (MNRO)/.03
  • (TGI)/.35
Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

  • Empire Manufacturing for May is estimated to rise to -8.0 versus -8.1 in April.
  • Retail Sales Advance MoM for April is estimated unch. versus a +1.5% gain in March.
  • Retail Sales Ex Autos and Gas for April is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.9% gain in March.
  • PPI Final Demand MoM for April is estimated to rise +.2% versus a -.4% decline in March.
  • PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM for April is estimated to rise +.3% versus a -.1% decline in March.
  • Initial Jobless Claims for last week is estimated at 228K versus 228K the prior week.
  • Continuing Claims is estimated to rise to 1890K versus 1879K prior.
  • The Philly Fed Business Outlook for May is estimated to rise to -11.1 versus -26.4 in April.

9:15 am EST

  • Industrial Production MoM for April is estimated to rise +.1% versus a -.3% decline in March.
  • Capacity Utilization is estimated at 77.8% versus 77.8% in March.
  • Manufacturing Production for April is estimated to fall -.3% versus a +.3% gain in March.

10:00 am EST

  • Business Inventories for March are estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.2% gain in Feb.
  • The NAHB Housing Market Index for May is estimated at 40.0 versus 40.0 in April.

Upcoming Splits

  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Fed's Powell speaking, Fed's Barr speaking, Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 update, IEA Monthly Report, Fed's weekly balance sheet report, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report, BofA Healthcare Conference, BMO Chemical Conference, JPMorgan Tech/Media/Communications Conference, (LNG) annual meeting, (XPO) annual meeting, (MO) annual meeting, (TSCO) annual meeting, (YUM) annual meeting, (ORLY) annual meeting, (CLF) annual meeting, (T) annual meeting, (LVS) annual meeting, (CB) annual meeting, (BG) annual meeting, (KEY) annual meeting, (MS) annual meeting, (CVS) annual meeting, (RGEN) annual meeting,  and the BofA Industrials/Transports/Airlines Key Leaders Conference could also impact global trading tomorrow.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

  • Volume Running +11.1% Above 100-Day Average 
  • Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 21.2 +6.3
  • 8 Sectors Declining, 3 Sectors Rising
  • 38.2% of Issues Advancing, 59.9% Declining 
  • TRIN/Arms .59 -47.3%
  • Non-Block Money Flow -$203.3M
  • 49 New 52-Week Highs, 19 New Lows
  • 42.1% (-2.8%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 62.2 +2.7
Other:
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 72.6 +2.9%
  • Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 247.7 +.8%
  • Russell 1000: Growth/Value 21,307.8 +1.3%
  • CNN Fear & Greed Index 71.0 (GREED) +2.0
  • 1-Day Vix 12.6 -18.1%
  • Vix 18.3 +.6%
  • Total Put/Call .66 -14.3%