Thursday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.5% to +.25% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 73.75 unch.

• China Sovereign CDS 63.25 -.5 basis point.
  
• China Iron Ore Spot 102.0 USD/Metric Tonne +1.0%

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.7 -.03%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 66.3 +.9%.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 17.2 +1.2%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.11%

• S&P 500 futures -.33%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.49%.  

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Modestly Lower into Final Hour on Escalating Russia/Ukraine Tensions, Earnings Outlook Jitters, Higher Long-Term Rates, Retail/Tech Sector Weakness

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.7 -.2%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.53% +1.0 basis point
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 101.4 USD/Metric Tonne +.4%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 46.8 euros/megawatt-hour +2.5%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 40.6 -1.5 points
  

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 13.9 -.2 point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -.6 -.3 point
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(470 of 500 reporting) +6.6% -.1 percentage point
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 269.19 +.17:  Growth Rate +15.3% +.1 percentage point, P/E 21.9 unch.
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.59% -1.0 basis point
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(7 of 10 reporting) +25.7% unch.
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 379.58 +.58: Growth Rate +33.3% +.2 percentage point, P/E 32.6 +.1
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 1.04 unch.
  
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index .99 -47.0 basis points
  
• US Yield Curve 10.0 basis point (2s/10s) -.25 basis point
  
• US Atlanta Fed Q4 GDPNow Forecast +2.58% unch.
  
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 33.3% -1.4 percentage points
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.76% unch.: CPI YoY +2.70% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.36 +1.0 basis point
  
• Highest target rate probability for Jan. 29th FOMC meeting: 50.9%(-3.1 percentage point) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. Highest target rate probability for March 19th meeting: 41.5%(-1.6 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. (current target rate is 4.5-4.75%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -185 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -40 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +90 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher:  On gains in my utility sector longs, index hedges and emerging market shorts
  

• Disclosed Trades: None
  

• Market Exposure: 75% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth -.9%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Computer Hardware -2.1% 2) Semis -1.7% 3) Retail -1.1%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• ILMN, DASH, CRMD, GLPG, AU, APO, AI, SBLK, QDEL, ZTO, GDS, MPWR, AOSL, TMDX, ROKU, NTLA, ELF, FN, BYRN, DY, NAMS, POWL and TGT
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) IBIT 2) TGT 3) WSM 4) ELF 5) PSEC
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) TGT 2) SMCI 3) FOA 4) EYEN5) DY
  

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

• 1) XLF 2) XBI 3) SMH 4) KWEB 5) IBB

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Mid-Cap Value +.1%
  

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Video Gaming +1.3% 2) Steel +1.2% 3) Computer Services +1.2%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• WSM, LMND, MARA, SMLR, DLB, WIX, MSTR, AAOI, GLBE, BRKR, U, ZETA, ESTA, LEU, QFIN, ALHC, BLFS, LNTH, AZTA, FLEX, TNDM, KEYS, MEG, WBTN, WBTN, CSGP, ZI, VREX, BERY, PX, EQT, ROOT, FND, BROS, AZEK, CORZ, AVPT, LEGN, X, KT, TEM, AMCR, GME, ARVN, SEDG, TECH and BTGR
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) IBIT 2) MSTZ 3) MET 4) WSM 5) TGT

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) KC 2) WSM 3) WIX 4) DLB 5) HUM
  

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) XLP 2) XLY 3) IGV 4) SOXX 5) XLB
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (BIDU)/17.46
• (BJ)/.93
• (ROAD)/.57
• (DE)/3.87
• (SCVL)/.67
• (WMG)/.28
  

After the Close: 

• (CPRT)/.37
• (GAP)/.58
• (INTU)/2.36
• (ROST)/1.40
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• The Philly Fed Business Outlook for Nov. is estimated to fall to 8.0 versus 10.3 in Oct.
• Initial Jobless Claims are estimated to rise to 220K versus 217K the prior week.
• Continuing Claims is estimated to rise to 1880K versus 1873K prior.

10:00 am EST

• The Leading Index for Oct. is estimated to fall -.3% versus a -.5% decline in Sept.
• Existing Home Sales MoM for Oct. is estimated to rise +2.9% versus a -1.0% decline in Sept.
  

11:00 am EST

• The Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity Index for Nov. is estimated to fall to -5 versus -4 in Oct.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Schmid speaking, Fed's Barr speaking, Fed's Hammack speaking, Fed's Goolsbee speaking, Fed's weekly balance sheet report, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report, Barclays Auto/Mobility Tech Conference, (GEHC) investor day and the (PG) investor day could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +2.8% Above 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 15.7 +.2
  
• 8 Sectors Declining, 3 Sectors Rising
• 35.1% of Issues Advancing, 63.1% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms .65 -43.5%
  
• Non-Block Money Flow -$35.7M
  
• 106 New 52-Week Highs, 57 New Lows
• 56.8% (-1.0%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 52.0 -2.0
  

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 66.6 -.7%
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 243.3 -.2%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 20,210.6 -.71%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 48.0 (NEUTRAL) -3.0
  
• 1-Day Vix 15.2 +30.5%
  
• Vix 18.1 +10.8%
  
• Total Put/Call .79 -9.2%