Stocks Falling into Afternoon on Earnings Outlook Jitters, Diminishing China Stimulus Hopes, Technical Selling, Tech/Commodity Sector Weakness

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 38.42 -.33%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.63% unch.
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 106.7 USD/Metric Tonne +.7%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 40.0 euros/megawatt-hour -1.4%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 6.0 -3.0 points
  

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -20.9 +4.3 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -7.1 -.2 point
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(40 of 500 reporting) +5.3% -2.0 percentage points
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 267.25 -.10:  Growth Rate +14.6% unch., P/E 21.8 -.1
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.66% -2.0 basis points
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a n/a
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 367.36 +.28: Growth Rate +29.0% +.1 percentage point, P/E 31.7 -.5
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .86 +8.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.02 -6.0 basis points
  
• US Yield Curve 7.75 basis point (2s/10s) -6.25 basis points
  
• US Atlanta Fed 3Q GDPNow Forecast +3.22% unch.
  
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 50.3 -.4 percentage point
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.62% unch.: CPI YoY +2.55% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.29 -4.0 basis points
  
• Highest target rate probability for Dec. 18th FOMC meeting: 82.5%(+5.9 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. Highest target rate probability for Jan. 29th meeting: 61.7%(+4.4 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. (current target rate is 4.75-5.0%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -770 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -133 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +122 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Lower:  On losses in my tech/industrial sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long
  

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (ABT)
• (MS)/1.59
• (CFG)/.79 
• (FHN)/.37
• (SYF)/1.79
• (PLD)/1.37
  
• (USB)/.99
  

After the Close: 

• (AA)/.28
• (CNS)/.74
• (CCI)/1.79
• (CSX)/.48
• (DFS)/3.46
• (EFX)/1.84
• (KMI)/.27
• (PPG)/2.15
• (SLG)/1.25
• (STLD)/1.97
• (SNV)/1.08
• (LVS)/.54
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• NY Fed Services Business Activity for Oct.
• The Import Price Index MoM for Sept. is estimated to fall -.3% versus a -.3% decline in Aug.
• The Import Price Index ex Petrol MoM for Sept. is estimated to rise +.1% versus a -.1% decline in Aug. 
• The Export Price Index MoM for Sept. is estimated to fall -.4% versus a -.7% decline in Aug.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The weekly MBA mortgage applications report, API weekly crude oil stock report, (ULTA) investor day, (OKTA) investor meeting and the (MDT) annual meeting could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +9.7% Above 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 13.9 +.3
  
• 4 Sectors Declining, 7 Sectors Rising
• 62.4% of Issues Advancing, 36.0% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms 1.28 +25.5%
  
• Non-Block Money Flow +$311.9M
  
• 272 New 52-Week Highs, 16 New Lows
• 61.3% (+1.7%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 70.0 +2.0
  

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 59.6 -2.5%
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 230.5 -1.5%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 19,698.6 -1.0%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 74.0 (GREED) -3.0
  
• 1-Day Vix 9.3 -.4%
  
• Vix 20.1 +2.1%
  
• Total Put/Call .86 +4.9%

Tuesday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are +.25% to +1.25% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 71.5 -.25 basis point.

• China Sovereign CDS 63.0 +.5 basis point.
  
• China Iron Ore Spot 107.4 USD/Metric Tonne -.2%

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 38.6 unch.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 63.0 +3.0%.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 18.6 -.5%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures n/a.

• S&P 500 futures +.06%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.02%.  

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly higher, boosted by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Rising into Final Hour on Earnings Outlook Optimism, Yen Weakness, Short-Covering, Consumer Discretionary/Tech Sector Strength

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 38.6 -.1%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.63% unch.
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 107.2 USD/Metric Tonne -.4%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 40.60 euros/megawatt-hour +1.7%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 9.0 -1.3 points
  

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -25.2 +1.5 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -6.9 +.5 point
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(30 of 500 reporting) +7.3% unch.
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 267.35 +.25:  Growth Rate +14.6% +.1 percentage point, P/E 21.9 +.1
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.68% +1.0 basis point
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a n/a
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 367.08 +.32: Growth Rate +28.9% +.1 percentage point, P/E 32.2 unch.
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .78 +2.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.08 +7.0 basis points
  
• US Yield Curve 14.0 basis point (2s/10s) +.75 basis point
  
• US Atlanta Fed 3Q GDPNow Forecast +3.22% unch.
  
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 50.7 +2.6 percentage points
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.62% unch.: CPI YoY +2.55% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.33 unch.
  
• Highest target rate probability for Dec. 18th FOMC meeting: 68.3%(-16.1 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. Highest target rate probability for Jan. 29th meeting: 50.7%(-17.8 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. (current target rate is 4.75-5.0%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +600 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +28 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +160 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher:  On gains in tech/consumer discretionary/industrial/biotech/utility sector longs and emerging market shorts
  

• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Value +.4%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Electric Vehicles -2.1% 2) Alt Energy -1.7% 3) Oil Service -1.1%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• MSTR, BGNE, AEHR, BIDU, GOOS and XPEV
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) PR 2) NTR 3) UPST 4) ARKG 5) CNC
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) PDD 2) TD 3) EXTR 4) SYM 5) AS
  

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

• 1) XLI 2) FDN 3) XLY 4) XLV 5) VGT

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume