Wednesday, November 20, 2024

Stocks Modestly Lower into Final Hour on Escalating Russia/Ukraine Tensions, Earnings Outlook Jitters, Higher Long-Term Rates, Retail/Tech Sector Weakness

Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.7 -.2%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.53% +1.0 basis point
  • China Iron Ore Spot 101.4 USD/Metric Tonne +.4%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 46.8 euros/megawatt-hour +2.5%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 40.6 -1.5 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 13.9 -.2 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -.6 -.3 point
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(470 of 500 reporting) +6.6% -.1 percentage point
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 269.19 +.17:  Growth Rate +15.3% +.1 percentage point, P/E 21.9 unch.
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.59% -1.0 basis point
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(7 of 10 reporting) +25.7% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 379.58 +.58: Growth Rate +33.3% +.2 percentage point, P/E 32.6 +.1
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 1.04 unch.
  • Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index .99 -47.0 basis points
  • US Yield Curve 10.0 basis point (2s/10s) -.25 basis point
  • US Atlanta Fed Q4 GDPNow Forecast +2.58% unch.
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 33.3% -1.4 percentage points
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.76% unch.: CPI YoY +2.70% unch.
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.36 +1.0 basis point
  • Highest target rate probability for Jan. 29th FOMC meeting: 50.9%(-3.1 percentage point) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. Highest target rate probability for March 19th meeting: 41.5%(-1.6 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. (current target rate is 4.5-4.75%)
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -185 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -40 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +90 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Higher:  On gains in my utility sector longs, index hedges and emerging market shorts
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 75% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

  • Large-Cap Growth -.9%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Computer Hardware -2.1% 2) Semis -1.7% 3) Retail -1.1%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • ILMN, DASH, CRMD, GLPG, AU, APO, AI, SBLK, QDEL, ZTO, GDS, MPWR, AOSL, TMDX, ROKU, NTLA, ELF, FN, BYRN, DY, NAMS, POWL and TGT
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) IBIT 2) TGT 3) WSM 4) ELF 5) PSEC
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) TGT 2) SMCI 3) FOA 4) EYEN5) DY
Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:
  • 1) XLF 2) XBI 3) SMH 4) KWEB 5) IBB

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

  • Mid-Cap Value +.1%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Video Gaming +1.3% 2) Steel +1.2% 3) Computer Services +1.2%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • WSM, LMND, MARA, SMLR, DLB, WIX, MSTR, AAOI, GLBE, BRKR, U, ZETA, ESTA, LEU, QFIN, ALHC, BLFS, LNTH, AZTA, FLEX, TNDM, KEYS, MEG, WBTN, WBTN, CSGP, ZI, VREX, BERY, PX, EQT, ROOT, FND, BROS, AZEK, CORZ, AVPT, LEGN, X, KT, TEM, AMCR, GME, ARVN, SEDG, TECH and BTGR
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) IBIT 2) MSTZ 3) MET 4) WSM 5) TGT
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) KC 2) WSM 3) WIX 4) DLB 5) HUM
Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:
  • 1) XLP 2) XLY 3) IGV 4) SOXX 5) XLB
Charts:

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:
  • (BIDU)/17.46
  • (BJ)/.93
  • (ROAD)/.57
  • (DE)/3.87
  • (SCVL)/.67
  • (WMG)/.28
After the Close: 
  • (CPRT)/.37
  • (GAP)/.58
  • (INTU)/2.36
  • (ROST)/1.40
Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
  • The Philly Fed Business Outlook for Nov. is estimated to fall to 8.0 versus 10.3 in Oct.
  • Initial Jobless Claims are estimated to rise to 220K versus 217K the prior week.
  • Continuing Claims is estimated to rise to 1880K versus 1873K prior.

10:00 am EST

  • The Leading Index for Oct. is estimated to fall -.3% versus a -.5% decline in Sept.
  • Existing Home Sales MoM for Oct. is estimated to rise +2.9% versus a -1.0% decline in Sept.

11:00 am EST

  • The Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity Index for Nov. is estimated to fall to -5 versus -4 in Oct.

Upcoming Splits

  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Fed's Schmid speaking, Fed's Barr speaking, Fed's Hammack speaking, Fed's Goolsbee speaking, Fed's weekly balance sheet report, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report, Barclays Auto/Mobility Tech Conference, (GEHC) investor day and the (PG) investor day could also impact global trading tomorrow.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

  • Volume Running +2.8% Above 100-Day Average 
  • Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 15.7 +.2
  • 8 Sectors Declining, 3 Sectors Rising
  • 35.1% of Issues Advancing, 63.1% Declining 
  • TRIN/Arms .65 -43.5%
  • Non-Block Money Flow -$35.7M
  • 106 New 52-Week Highs, 57 New Lows
  • 56.8% (-1.0%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 52.0 -2.0
Other:
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 66.6 -.7%
  • Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 243.3 -.2%
  • Russell 1000: Growth/Value 20,210.6 -.71%
  • CNN Fear & Greed Index 48.0 (NEUTRAL) -3.0
  • 1-Day Vix 15.2 +30.5%
  • Vix 18.1 +10.8%
  • Total Put/Call .79 -9.2%

Tuesday, November 19, 2024

Wednesday Watch

Night Trading 

  • Asian equity indices are -.5% to +.25% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 73.75 +.25 basis point.
  • China Sovereign CDS 63.75 unch.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 101.0 USD/Metric Tonne -.03%
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.8 +.02%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 66.5 +.9%.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 16.2 -1.6%.
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.21%
  • S&P 500 futures +.11%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.10%.  
Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by commodity and consumer shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.