Friday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.5% to +.5% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 71.75 -.5 basis point.

• China Sovereign CDS 63.25 +.25 basis point.
  
• China Iron Ore Spot 100.4 USD/Metric Tonne +.8%

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 38.4 -.07%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 60.8 +3.1%.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 18.8 +.19%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures n/a.

• S&P 500 futures +.06%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.14%.  

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and financial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Slightly Higher into Final Hour on Earnings Outlook Optimism, US Economic Data, Yen Weakness, Tech/Financial Sector Strength

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 38.4 -.03%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.64% +3.0 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 100.8 USD/Metric Tonne +1.2%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 39.7 euros/megawatt-hour +1.0%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 14.9 +8.5 points
  

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -19.1 +1.0 point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -7.2 -.6 point
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(65 of 500 reporting) +6.2% +.3 percentage point
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 267.35 +.03:  Growth Rate +14.6% unch., P/E 21.9 +.1
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.63% -3.0 basis points
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a n/a
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 367.75 +.16: Growth Rate +29.2% +.1 percentage point, P/E 32.1 +.5
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .79 +7.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index .88 -4.0 basis points
  
• US Yield Curve 10.75 basis point (2s/10s) +3.0 basis points
  
• US Atlanta Fed 3Q GDPNow Forecast +3.42% +20.0 basis points
  
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 50.0 -.7 percentage point
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.62% unch.: CPI YoY +2.57% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.30 +3.0 basis points
  
• Highest target rate probability for Dec. 18th FOMC meeting: 72.0%(-13.6 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. Highest target rate probability for Jan. 29th meeting: 52.3%(-13.6 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. (current target rate is 4.75-5.0%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +431 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -130 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +103 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher:  On gains in my tech/industrial sector longs and emerging market shorts
  

• Disclosed Trades: None
  

• Market Exposure: 100% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Value -.3%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Healthcare Providers -2.9% 2) Road & Rail -2.8% 3) Alt Energy -2.0%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• WBA, EVH, NVCR, AMSC, SR, OKLO, JSK, ZK, CSX, TNDM, FUTU, AFRM, XPEV, REXR, LBRT, BEAM, WGS, CAPR, CNC, ASPN, MAN, WNS, BEKE, AMRC, NNE, MOH, ELV and DAVE
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) EOSE 2) LAC 3) CNC 4) ELV 5) LCID
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) LCID 2) ELV 3) MOH 4) CAPR 5) CNC
  

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

• 1) XLV 2) SMH 3) XLE 4) XLK 5) XLP

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth +.2%
  

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Semis +1.9% 2) Gold & Silver +1.2% 3) Regional Banks +.9%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• FOLD, IRDM, WBS, TSM, HMY, SNA, TRV, DESP, FWRG, RTO, DRD, BX, CMC, CCRN, MTB, PLAY, SNV, STLD, EXPE, AU, LEU, BWIN, PSTG, OWL, ALKT, PAM, AVDL, TPG, ARES, INOD, CG, TLN, BCS, PRGO, AEHR, PENG and UAL
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) ELV 2) GEVO 3) ULCC 4) UUUU 5) TSM

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) IRDM 2) SNA 3) SNV 4) MTB 5) BX
  

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) KRE 2) XLF 3) GDX 4) XAR 5) IXG
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (ALLY)/.49
• (ALV)/1.92
• (CMA)/1.17
• (FITB)/.83
• (PG)/1.90
• (RF)/.53
• (SFNC)/.33
• (SLB)/.88
• (AXP)/3.38
  

After the Close: 

• None of note
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• Housing Starts for Sept. is estimated to fall to 1350K versus 1356K in Aug.
• Building Permits for Sept. is estimated to fall to 1460K versus 1470K in Aug.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Bostic speaking, Fed's Kashkari speaking, Fed's Waller speaking, Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q3 update, US Baker Hughes weekly oil rig count and the weekly CFTC speculative net positioning reports could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -.8% Below 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 13.5 -.4
  
• 6 Sectors Declining, 5 Sectors Rising
• 42.3% of Issues Advancing, 54.9% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms 1.04 -2.8%
  
• Non-Block Money Flow +$16.1M
  
• 227 New 52-Week Highs, 15 New Lows
• 61.3% (-.4%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 71.0 +1.0
  

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 59.4 +1.3%
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 231.88 +.69%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 19,789.7 +.66%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 73.0 (GREED) -1.0
  
• 1-Day Vix 10.2 -4.3%
  
• Vix 19.0 -2.9%
  
• Total Put/Call .89 +1.1%