Stocks Higher into Final Hour on Earnings Outlook Optimism, Diminished China Economy Pessimism, Presidential Inauguration Positioning, Tech/Financial Sector Strength

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.8 unch.
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.30% unch.
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 104.0 USD/Metric Tonne +.13%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 46.9 euros/megawatt-hour +1.4%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 22.8 +8.4 points
  

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -19.9 -.2 point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 5.6 +3.7 points
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(42 of 500 reporting) +21.9% -2.0 percentage point
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 273.74 +.46:  Growth Rate +14.9% +.2 percentage point, P/E 21.9 +.1
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.36% -2.0 basis points
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 396.33 +.49: Growth Rate +26.4% +.1 percentage point, P/E 33.4 unch.
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .72 -3.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.63 -1.0 basis point
  
• US Yield Curve 34.0 basis points (2s/10s) -2.75 basis points
  
• US Atlanta Fed Q4 GDPNow Forecast +2.99% +3.0 basis points
  
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 25.8% +1.8 percentage points
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.83% unch.: CPI YoY +2.82% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.42 unch.
  
• Highest target rate probability for March 19th FOMC meeting: 71.6% (+5.1 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. Highest target rate probability for May 7th meeting: 55.6%(+5.3 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +409 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +45 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +115 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my industrial/financial/tech/utility/consumer discretionary sector longs
• Disclosed Trades: None
  
• Market Exposure: 100% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Value +.3%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Pharma -1.6% 2) Shipping -1.1% 3) Road & Rail -.8%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• STT, SYM, LUCK, AGYS, NVO, JBHT, ARQQ, SUPV, FLNC and CECO
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) IVZ 2) LAC 3) NU 4) EQT 5) FITB
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) WOLF 2) SYM 3) ZETA 4) NXT 5) HUMA
  

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

• 1) KRE 2) OIH 3) VIS 4) VHT 5) XLV

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth +1.5%
  

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Semis +2.7% 2) Oil Service +2.4% 3) Steel +1.8%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• MARA, QRVO, SMR, RIGL, JD, IREN, CHX, FUTU, SMTC, INTC, MLTX, SLB, OZK, CRDO, SPIR, HOOD, VIK, HUT, GFS, SMMT, FOUR, VITL, CCJ, KROS, TFC, BIRK, ONON, PDD, RIOT, INDB, TD, ASTH, ARIS, WFRD, LASR, NFE, MESO, LTH, GDS, PYPL, CUK, RCL, EIX, CBLL, UTI, DE, TME, BTDR, BILI, TPC and WBS
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) ROIV 2) TMC 3) CRK 4) SLS 5) CI

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) GSIT 2) VS 3) QRVO 4) INTC 5) SLB
  

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) AIRR 2) XLU 3) XLF 4) VGT 5) SMH
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tuesday's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (MMM)/1.66
• (SCHW)/.91
• (DHI)/2.36
• (FITB)/.88
• (KEY)/.33
• (EDU)/.30
• (ONB)/.46
• (PGR)/3.57
  

After the Close: 

• (CNI)/1.95
• (COF)/2.83
• (IBKR)/1.84
• (NFLX)/4.20
• (PNFP)/1.78
• (PRGS)/1.21
• (STX)/1.88
• (UAL)/3.03
• (ZION)/1.26
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• The Philly Fed Non-Manufacturing Activity Index for Jan.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Presidential Inauguration on Mon. and the (MNST) investor meeting could also impact global trading on Tuesday.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +17.2% Above 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 10.9 -4.7
  
• 0 Sectors Declining, 11 Sectors Rising
• 68.6% of Issues Advancing, 29.5% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms 1.28 +32.0%
  
• Non-Block Money Flow +$134.5M
  
• 91 New 52-Week Highs, 6 New Lows
• 54.5% (+2.1%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 59.5 +3.9
  

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 72.9 +1.0%
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 257.8 +.7%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 21,256.6 +.5%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 38.0 (FEAR) +8.0
  
• 1-Day Vix 11.8 -18.1%
  
• Vix 15.7 -5.4%
  
• Total Put/Call .65 -28.6%

Friday Watch

Around X:

• @elonmusk

• Grok confirms: "Joe Biden received $174 million in anonymous contributions, making him the top recipient of dark money support in American political history." And that doesn't count the other $1B+ groups like Arabella spent for Dems in 2020 alone. Wow.
• The only reason to ban voter ID is to commit voting fraud. Some playbook there as here. (pic)
• DEI SUPPORT PLUMMETS AS WORKERS SAY "ENOUGH". American workers are increasingly skeptical of DEI initiatives, with 42% of Republicans now calling them "bad" for business, up from 30% last year. Looks like those mandatory unconscious bias trainings aren't winning any popularity contests. Even among Democrats, enthusiasm is waning as 19% of workers say companies waste too much time on diversity programs. America has indeed had enough. (pic)
• JOE ROGAN: “All it would have taken is $5B to rebuild Maui and they 'accidentally' paid an extra $6B to Ukraine. We keep sending money to these other countries. Even if you're supporting Ukraine, I'm still saying they 'accidentally' sent $6B there and no one cared, and they didn't send $5B to Maui and they could have.” This is so messed up. (video)

• @Charliekirk11

• Infuriating. A Los Angeles firefighter breaks down in tears when a CNN reporter reminds him that he warned LA leaders — only a month ago — that “people will die” due to a woefully underfunded and short-staffed LAFD. Staffing levels were only at HALF the size needed. He was right. We’re up to 24 deaths and counting. Millions of dollars in rescue equipment is just sitting in a lot unused because the Fire Department can't afford maintenance crews to repair it. Karen Bass should resign immediately.

• @listen_2team

• Trump-proofing our bureaucracy: CISA edition. Joe Biden signed EOs that will be a guardrail to Trump cleaning up CISA. Trump needs to end all of Biden’s EOs on day one. He also must send in a forensic team to investigate 2020 and Chris Krebs, the former head of CISA. If Trump keeps CISA, the appointment of the leader will be one of the most important decisions he makes because CISA essentially runs our elections as they centralized the voting machines under the guise of cybersecurity before the 2020 election. The election tie in is no doubt why democrats are trying to keep control over it. I wouldn’t be surprised if the encryption is so that the resistance can leak with impunity and conduct business as usual outside of the Trump administration. (video)
  

• @WallStreetMav

• Then vs Now. (pic)

• @bennyjohnson

• BREAKING: Pro-Trump Georgia State Senator Colton Moore, who took down corrupt DA Fani Willis last year, was arrested and pushed to the ground while attempting to attend the State of the State session. He is being held in an Atlanta jail.
• Trump is just straight up posting text messages now about the absolute disaster state that Los Angeles is in right now. (pic)

• @WallStreetApes

• WOW! The Pentagon official James O’Keefe just exposed was working to sabotage Donald Trump. WAS A SPECIAL AGENT WITH THE FBI AND WORKED FOR HILLARY CLINTON AT THE STATE DEPT. It ALWAYS comes back to the same corrupt people, nothing ever changes. (video)
• James O’Keefe just exposed The Pentagon is secretly working to sabotage our new commander in chief Donald Trump. This is not only criminal, it’s literally treason Who wants to see these traitors raided, arrested and thrown in prison? We’ve had enough. (video)

• @EricLDaugh

• Secretary of State nominee Marco Rubio just issued a grave warning for America. Listen intently. He's right, and we need to act. "If we stay on the road we are on right now - in less than 10 years, virtually everything that matters to us in life will depend on whether China allows us to have it or not." "Everything from blood pressure medicine to what movies we get to watch, and everything in between. They dominate the critical mineral industry. Even those who want more EVs - those batteries depend on China." "If we don't change course - we will live in a world where much of what matters on a daily basis, from our security to our health - will be dependent on whether the Chinese allow us to have it or not." (video)

• @shellenberger

• California is the richest state with the highest taxes and yet it cut funding for firefighting, which led directly to L.A.'s catastrophic fires. Why? Because Newsom & Bass diverted billions from preventing and fighting catastrophic fires to migrants, homeless, and climate.

• @amuse 

• COVERUP: Biden's DOJ will NOT release the list of the people who Jeffrey Epstein trafficked underage girls for. Now Biden's IRS is refunding $112M to his estate and refuses to release the names of the beneficiary(s). As much as $145M, instead of going to the victims, will go to people the Biden administration is protecting. Hopefully @PamBondi and @auctnr1 will release the names...

• @greg_price11
  

• Biden: "I want to warn the country [about] concentrated power in the hands of a few ultra wealthy people." Last week, he gave our nation's highest civilian honor to George Soros. (video)
  

• @DC_Draino

• Kinda wild they waited 35 years to ban something we eat that was already deemed unsafe to put on our skin. FDA needs a serious overhaul.

• @OcrazioCornPop
  

• BREAKING: LA "Fire Bosses" opted not to deploy 1,000 available firefighters and more than 40 water-carrying engines until after the Palisades wildfire was burning out of control — even as extreme warnings were coming in about life-threatening winds - REPORT. HOW IS THIS POSSIBLE?

• @MJTruthUltra

• Today, we got rid of Food Dye Red 3… we have plenty more cancerous poisons in our food to go — Let’s take a look at Yellow #5. • Yellow Dye called Tartrazine (Yellow Dye #5) —— this dye is made from the sludge left over when you turn coal into coke • Tartrazine (Yellow #5) was used to pave roads… but then one day a British chemist figured out how to make fabric dye, and that escalated to using it in our food • Tartrazine (Yellow #5) causes.. (list)
• California — "PG&E Knows 'smart meters' Catch Fire and they’re Covering it Up”. Pat Wrigley, a former meter reader was fired for his Whistleblower testimony… MY THOUGHTS: (video)

• @RepMTG

• Drones are flying over the White House! Chinese drone manufacturer DJI has removed geofencing restrictions for sensitive government facilities like military bases and the WH. Now, the Chinese are collecting data they shouldn’t have from recreational drone operators and our government is letting it happen. Chinese drones should be banned from our airspace, and they certainly should not be sold in the United States. (video)

• @jackunheard

• BREAKING: Dem. Sen. Chris Coons slips up, admitting Nancy Pelosi “orchestrated” a coup against Biden. Lmao. “Pelosi should have engaged directly with them, rather than orchestrating a campaign to get President Biden to step down from the race.”

• @ShadowofEzra
  

• Donald Trump's pick for Attorney General, Pam Bondi, has stated that anyone connected to Jeffrey Epstein has no legal grounds to prevent their names from being revealed in public records. (video)
  

• @VigilantFox
  

• BREAKING: A new study confirms that COVID-19 mRNA injections spread to vital organs and trigger systemic, toxic spike protein production. This “conspiracy theory” just became a reality. The new study, published in Nature Biotechnology, reveals alarming details about the biodistribution of lipid nanoparticles (LNPs) carrying SARS-CoV-2 spike mRNA. The study demonstrated that even at extremely low doses (0.0005 mg/kg), these LNPs deliver mRNA to cells in vital organs, leading to the production of toxic spike protein. According to the researchers, this protein triggers immune activation and causes damage to blood vessels. (video)

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.5% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 78.75 +1.5 basis points.

• China Sovereign CDS 57.75 +3.0 basis points.
  
• China Iron Ore Spot 102.7 USD/Metric Tonne +.02%

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.8 -.07%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 72.4 +.3%.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 17.1 +.1%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.06%.

• S&P 500 futures +.14%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.12%.  

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by commodity and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.