Monday, March 16, 2020

Stocks Finish Substantially Lower on Coronavirus Fears, European/Emerging Markets/US High-Yield Debt Angst, Oil Plunge, Gaming/Homebuilding Sector Weakness

 Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  • Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Declining
  • Volume: Heavy
  • Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 77.3 +33.7%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 122.76 -1.22%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 13.3 +6.6%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 86.4 +4.9%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 73.0 +19
  • Total Put/Call 1.28 +1.59%
  • NYSE Arms .80 +110.5%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 125.64 +17.0%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 1,394.0 -2.69%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 144.23 +10.4%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 262.75 +29.75 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 142.58 +10.86%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 416.27 +20.6%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 170.88 -.29%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 8.25 +4.5 basis points
  • TED Spread 60.0 +11.5 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -81.0 -16.0 basis points
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 60.95 -1.69%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .19% -7.0 basis points
  • Yield Curve .40 +7.0 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 85.7 USD/Metric Tonne -2.0%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 61.70 -12.1 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 14.3 +.1 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -41.2 -22.1 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread .73 -19.0 basis point
  • n/a chance of 100.0 basis point Fed rate cut at April 29th meeting, n/a chance of 100.0 basis point cut at June 10th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -532 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -647 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -189 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Higher: On gains in my index hedges and emerging market shorts
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 25% Net Long

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