Monday, March 23, 2020

Stocks Falling Substantially into Final Hour on Coronavirus Fears, US Stimulus Debate, Emerging Market/US High-Yield Debt Angst

 Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Declining
  • Volume: Heavy
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 66.6 +.91%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 124.09 +.82%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 14.8 +2.1%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 70.5 +19.0%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 74.0 +4
  • Total Put/Call 1.13 -8.9%
  • NYSE Arms .80 -42.8%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 126.28 -14.8%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 1,544.0 +1.87%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 130.13 -2.95%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 195.5 +.25 basis point
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 213.03 +14.75%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 419.19 +3.22%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 169.93 -.54%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 19.0 -.5 basis point
  • TED Spread 124.0 +11.0 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -11.75 -11.75 basis points
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 57.68 -.89%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield -.03% unch.
  • Yield Curve .54 -21.0 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 78.45 USD/Metric Tonne +.03%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 47.10 +1.8 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 2.0 -.6 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -28.4 +8.9 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread .82 +15.0 basis points
  • n/a chance of no change at April 29th meeting, n/a chance of no change at June 10th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +892 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -24 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +83 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Higher: On gains in my tech sector longs, emerging market shorts and index hedges
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 25% Net Long

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