Wednesday, March 25, 2020

Stocks Surging into Final Hour on Global Stimulus Hopes, Oil Gain, Short-Covering, Homebuilding/Transport Sector Strength

 Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  • Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Rising
  • Volume: Heavy
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 62.40 +1.0%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 125.50 +.78%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 12.61 -4.9%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 69.45 +12.8%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 75.0 +15
  • Total Put/Call .89 +1.14%
  • NYSE Arms .73 +.46%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 98.33 -11.2%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 1,469.0 -5.32%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 102.16 -7.71%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 180.5 -8.25 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 151.39 -19.3%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 294.30 -16.5%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 169.96 -.08%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 19.5 +6.75 basis points
  • TED Spread 125.0 +1.0 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap 7.5 +8.25 basis points
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 58.81 +.89%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield -.07% -3.0 basis points
  • Yield Curve .49 -1.0 basis point
  • China Iron Ore Spot 85.17 USD/Metric Tonne +4.52%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 61.70 -.6 point
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -54.90 -.1 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -28.6 +.1 point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.05 +8.0 basis points
  • n/a chance of no change at April 29th meeting, n/a chance of no change at June 10th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +200 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +104 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +50 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher: On gains in my tech/biotech/industrial/medical sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and emerging market shorts
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long

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