Sunday, November 30, 2025

Monday Watch

Around X:

  • @Business   
  • @Zerohedge
  • @CNBC
  • @WSJ.com
  • @Barron's 
  • Had bullish commentary on (D) and (RBLX).
  • @MarioNawful
  • TESLA PATENTED THE HOLY GRAIL OF LITHIUM REFINING, AND CHINA'S ENTIRE CHOKEHOLD IS CRACKING. Tesla's new patent isn't an improvement. It's a full execution of the old lithium refining model. They figured out how to generate the soda ash reagent on-site from the CO2 waste produced during calcination, turning the biggest emissions into the exact chemical needed for the leach process. Result: - ~30% lower refining costs. - 0 hazardous sodium-sulfate waste. - Near-0 external soda ash purchases. - Massive reduction in energy and water use. This is the refinery equivalent of discovering how to turn exhaust fumes into gasoline while you're driving. China controls 60% of global lithium refining and almost all soda ash supply chains; they’ve been weaponizing both for years. Tesla built the bypass.
  • STANFORD SCIENTISTS JUST CURED TYPE 1 DIABETES IN 100% OF MICE - AND THE PHARMA LOBBY IS ALREADY SHARPENING THEIR KNIVES. Stanford Medicine dropped the bomb: a "gentle" immune reset using low-dose radiation, T-cell-killing antibodies, and mismatched donor stem cells + islet transplants flipped the autoimmune switch off in every single mouse - preventing diabetes in 19 pre-diabetics and reversing it in all 9 long-term cases. No lifelong insulin jabs. No constant finger-pricks. No more 10-year-olds rationing candy like it's contraband. The hybrid immune system - part original, part donor - plays nice without nuking the whole defense grid or requiring a lifetime of immunosuppressants. Published in the Journal of Clinical Investigation, this isn't sci-fi: the core steps are already in clinics for blood disorders and organ transplants. Lead researcher Seung Kim:
  • @LauraLoomer.
  • @ValerieAnne1970
  • @wideawake_media
  • @TheSCIF
  • @IanJaeger29 
  • Republican Rep. Andy Barr who is running to replace Mitch McConnell in the Senate, wants to give more Afghan migrants visas to stay in the United States. This guy is a total fraud. (video)
  • @WallStreetMav
  • @EmeraldRobinson
  • @elonmusk
  • @songpionganq
  • @AlexBerenson
  • @EricLDaugh
  • @TheLastRefuge2
  • @Real_RobN
  • @LaraLogan
  • @StockSavvyShay
  • @JoshHall2024
  • @DeItaone
  • @AmyMek
  • @KobeissiLetter
  • @JKylebass
  • @MaryanneDemasi
  • Major journal under fire for omitting Pfizer’s failed flu data in seniors. Pfizer’s mRNA flu shot failed in the over-65s, but the @NEJM never published the data — prompting calls for accountability.
  • @redpillb0t
  • @annvandersteel
  • @RealHickory
  • In 40 days, the statute of limitations expires on one of the greatest crimes ever committed against the American people, Nancy Pelosi's J6 Insurrection hoax! After that, everyone involved will have gotten away with it. If indeed that happens, it'll be a worse crime!
  • @AlexBerenson
  • @drjamesbjoyce
  • @hodgetwins
  • #1 federal witness to the 2020 electoral heist Tina Peters still rotting in a Colorado prison while Jena Griswold and Jared Polis celebrate on Thanksgiving. That's two Thanksgivings that Gold Star Mom and Cancer survivor Tina has missed in a row. This is unacceptable @realDonaldTrump @JDVance. Do something!
Night Trading
  • Asian indices are -.5% to +.5% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 68.5 +1.0 basis point.
  • China Sovereign CDS 47.75 +.5 basis point.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 102.5 USD/Metric Tonne +.24%.
  • Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.80 +.16% 
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.22 +.02%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 91.6 +.9%.
  • US 10-Year Yield 4.03% +2.0 basis points.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 20.2 +1.4%. 
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.23%.
  • S&P 500 futures -.57%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -.73%.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by technology and consumer shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the week.

Tuesday, November 25, 2025

Wednesday Watch

Night Trading 

  • Asian equity indices are +.75% to +1.75% on average. 
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 67.5 unch.
  • China Sovereign CDS 46.5 +1.0 basis point.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 106.0 USD/Metric Tonne +.2%. 
  • Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.78 +.1%.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.13 +.01%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 89.5 +.8%.
  • US 10-Year Yield 4.0% unch.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 19.3 -.1%.
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.59%. 
  • S&P 500 futures +.21%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.29%.
Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly higher, boosted by financial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Surging into Final Hour on Fed Rate-Cut Hopes, Earnings Outlook Optimism, Short-Covering, Consumer Discretionary/Transport Sector Strength

Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.1 +.14%
  • US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.0% -2.0 basis points
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 3.77% -4.0 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 105.9 USD/Metric Tonne +.1%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 29.4 euros/megawatt-hour -1.2%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 4.9 -4.7 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 17.2 +.4 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 28.8 +1.8 points
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(479 of 500 reporting) +13.1% unch.
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 303.98 +.25:  Growth Rate +13.1% +.1 percentage point, P/E 22.2 +.2
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.51% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(8 of 10 reporting) +17.6% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 504.54 +.82: Growth Rate +24.2% +.2 percentage point, P/E 32.4 +.3
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .39 +12.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.18 +15.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 1.5 -.1
  • US Yield Curve 54.0 basis points (2s/10s) +.5 basis point
  • US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +4.0% -.2 percentage point
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 37.4% +1.8 percentage points
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.85% unch.: CPI YoY +2.96% unch.
  • 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.49 -5.0 basis points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.23 unch.
  • Highest target rate probability for Jan. 28th FOMC meeting: 63.9% (-2.2 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for March 18th meeting: 42.7%(-.9 percentage point) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. (current target rate is 3.75-4.0%)
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +400 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +37 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +130 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher: On gains in my tech/industrial/consumer discretionary/biotech sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 100% Net Long

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

  • Small-Cap Value +2.4%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Retail +4.4% 2) Airlines +4.3% 3) Homebuilding +4.1%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • KSS, ANF, SYM, AMTM, WWD, JACK, INSP, SEM, ZIM, ZM, PSNL, HSAI, CENTA, RGNX, JMIA, KEYS, EAT, BBWI, PRCT, URBN, ALHC, WSC, QFIN, DOOO, DIN, JANX, PACS, KYIV, VIK, GAP, RPD, VCYT, BZH, CBLL, UPWK, BROS, MBC, VLTO, XPEL, FSLY, WRBY, ICLR, FLG, LEN, AVBP, FWRG, UCTT, BBY, PRAA, AGIO, CHEF, PTCT, RCL, MBUU, UTI, SN, MAMA, SNCY, TMDX, WD, BKU, MGM, NVO, ZTS, PONY, TTAM, EBC, HD, ZTO, OI, FBNC, CARR, FIBK, RYAAY, MRK, KEP, RXST, CAKE, MCHB, RL, OSIS, CCL, POST, LIVN, ALC, KLIC, NFBK, ADI, MT, HBNC, MOFG, GMED, ABNB, CVBF, BTI, ALGN, FLO, DAVE, PFS, UAL, XENE, WDAY and GEHC
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) FHN 2) LVS 3) ZM 4) NTNX 5) XLB
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) KSS 2) SYM 3) ANF 4) TITN 5) AMTM
Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:
  • 1) XBI 2) KRE 3) SMH 4) FDN 5) IBB
Charts:

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:
  • (DE)/3.84
After the Close: 
  • (NNE)/-.31
Economic Release 
8:30 am EST
  • Initial Jobless Claims for last week is estimated to rise to 225K versus 220K the prior week. 
  • Continuing Claims is estimated to fall to 1964K versus 1974K prior.
  • Durable Goods Orders for Sept. is estimated to rise +.5% versus a +2.9% gain in Aug.
  • Durables Ex Transports for Sept. is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.3% gain in Aug.
  • Cap Goods Orders Non-Defense Ex Air for Sept. is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.4% gain in Aug. 

9:45 am EST

  • MNI Chicago PMI for Nov. is estimated at 43.8 versus 43.8 in Oct. 

2:00 pm EST

  • Fed releases Beige Book report. 

Upcoming Splits

  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q4 update, 7Y T-Note auction, weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report, weekly US Baker Hughes rig count, Fed's weekly balance sheet report, (SEE) annual meeting and the Jefferies Industrial Summit could also impact global trading tomorrow.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

  • Volume Running -8.8% Below 100-Day Average 
  • Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 14.4 +1.0
  • 3 Sectors Declining, 8 Sectors Rising
  • 75.4% of Issues Advancing, 23.1% Declining 
  • TRIN/Arms 1.25 -20.4%
  • Non-Block Money Flow +$229.9M
  • 80 New 52-Week Highs, 15 New Lows
  • 60.1% (+5.9%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 52.0 +5.4
Polymarket:
  • Supreme Court Rules in Favor of Trump's Tariffs? 26.0% unch.
  • Will there be another US government shutdown by January 31st? 27.0% -2.0 percentage points
  • Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? 14.0% unch.
  • US-Venezuela military engagement by Dec. 31st 43.0% -21.0 percentage points
Other:
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 88.1 +1.4%
  • US High-Yield Tech Sector OAS Index 448.5 -.5 basis point
  • Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 251.5 +.2%
  • Morgan Stanley Growth vs Value Index 158.8 -1.1%
  • CNN Fear & Greed Index 14.0 (EXTREME FEAR) unch.
  • 1-Day Vix 11.5 -19.3%
  • Vix 19.4 -5.3%
  • Total Put/Call .89 +1.1%

Monday, November 24, 2025

Tuesday Watch

Around X:

  • @Business  
  • @ZeroHedge
  • @CNBC
  • @MarioNawful
  • @HealthRanger
  • @ImMeme0
  • @WallStreetApes
  • Lara Logan interviews Former CIA operations officer Gary Berntsen who explains how elections are being stolen in America. He describes there are teams of statisticians, mathematicians, and hackers who map out every county and identify where margins can be quietly adjusted. Different techniques are used in each location so nothing matches in a recount. When a 70-30 county becomes 68-32, nobody notices. But when you add up these differences across an entire state, those tiny amounts of fraud decide outcomes. Both former CIA operations officer Gary Berntsen and author Ralph Pezzullo explain the strategy. They explain they don't flip the big blue cities. Instead they shave votes in the places no one ever audits. (video)
  • @KnoxieLuv
  • @GeneralMCNews
  • @JimFergusonUK
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are +.5% to +1.25% on average. 
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 67.5 -2.0 basis points.
  • China Sovereign CDS 45.5 -.75 basis point.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 106.0 USD/Metric Tonne +.9%. 
  • Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.77 -.18%.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.1 unch.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 87.9 +1.3%.
  • US 10-Year Yield 4.04% +1.0 basis point.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 20.0 +.3%.
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.27%. 
  • S&P 500 futures -.02%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -.02%.
Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly higher, boosted by industrial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.