Friday, February 25, 2022

Evening Headlines

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CNBC:
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OpenVAERS:
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Covid-19(Data, Maps, Graphs):

Weekly Scoreboard*


S&P 500 4,384.65 +.1%























The Weekly Wrap by Briefing.com.

Indices
  • DJIA 34,058.75 -.74%
  • NASDAQ 13,694.63 -.16%
  • Russell 2000 2,040.93 +.63%
  • S&P 500 High Beta 75.73 +.97%
  • Goldman 50 Most Shorted 237.18 -1.69%
  • Wilshire 5000 44,516.75 +.12%
  • Russell 1000 Growth 2,682.44 -.06%
  • Russell 1000 Value 1,601.59 +.36%
  • S&P 500 Consumer Staples 790.89 -.2%
  • MSCI Cyclicals-Defensives Spread 1,277.96 -.12%
  • NYSE Technology 3,654.45 -1.8%
  • Transports 15,207.21 +1.4%
  • Utilities 938.25 +2.5%
  • Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 79.45 -6.4%
  • MSCI Emerging Markets 47.12 -4.3%
  • HFRX Equity Hedge 1,456.66 -.75%
  • HFRX Equity Market Neutral 929.31 +.11%
Sentiment/Internals
  • NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 462,154 -1.5%
  • Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index -2,844 -2,478
  • Crude Oil Commercial Bullish % Net Position -33.8 +3.7%
  • CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 348,093 -4.2%
  • CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 2,122,758 -2.21%
  • Total Put/Call .97 -4.0%
  • OEX Put/Call 1.40 -7.1%
  • ISE Sentiment 82.0 +1.0 points
  • NYSE Arms .76 -34.7
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 3,226.0 +126.0 points
  • Bloomberg Financial Conditions Index + Bubbles 3.79 -1.1%
  • Volatility(VIX) 27.6 -1.9%
  • CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 45.7 +.04%
  • G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 6.99 -3.9%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 10.1 +12.5%
  • Smart Money Flow Index 13,511.73 -1.5%
  • ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $4.555 Trillion +.11%
  • ICI Domestic Equity Long-Term Mutual Fund/ETFs Weekly Flows +4.519 Million
  • AAII % Bulls 23.4 +21.9%
  • AAII % Bears 53.7 +24.3%
Futures Spot Prices
  • CRB Index 264.44 +2.0%
  • Crude Oil 92.22 +.4%
  • Reformulated Gasoline 273.17 +2.8%
  • Natural Gas 4.49 -.66%
  • Heating Oil 286.22 +2.4% 
  • Newcastle Coal 252.0 (1,000/metric ton) +25.4%
  • Gold 1,891.66 -.46%
  • Silver 24.23 +.96%
  • S&P GSCI Industrial Metals Index 549.3 +1.7%
  • Copper 448.80 -.36%
  • US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 505.0 USD/Metric Tonne unch.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 137.65 USD/Metric Tonne -2.3%
  • Lumber 1,307.90 +1.16%
  • UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,445.09 -.24%
  • US Gulf NOLA Potash Spot 665.0 USD/Short Ton +1.5%
Economy
  • Atlanta Fed GDPNow Forecast +1.3% unch.
  • ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate +2.1% -.9 percentage point
  • Bloomberg US Recession Probability Next 12 Months 15.0% unch.
  • NY Fed Real-Time Weekly Economic Index 6.8 +31.5%
  • US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index 436.74 +115.0%
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 228.52 +.25%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 41.8 +25.6 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 72.6 +29.8 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 36.5 +1.0 point
  • Fed Fund Futures imply 82.8%(+3.9 percentage points) chance of +25.0-50.0 basis point hike, 17.2%(-3.9 percentage points) chance of +50.0-75.0 basis point rate hike on 3/16
  • US Dollar Index 96.63 +.9%
  • MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,734.41 -.91%
  • Bitcoin/USD 38,810 +1.3%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 134.08 -.05%
  • Yield Curve 37.75 -12.5 basis points
  • 10-Year US Treasury Yield 1.98% +5.0 basis points
  • Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $8.890 Trillion +.19%
  • U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 11.61 -.04%
  • Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 140.75 +8.5%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 156.0 unch.
  • China Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 62.37 +17.6%
  • Brazil Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 221.69 -2.7%
  • Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 38.05 +8.1%
  • South Korea Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 28.11 +1.2%
  • Russia Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 541.40 +100.3%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 30.8 -1.5%
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.56% +12.0 basis points
  • TED Spread 18.75 +3.25 basis points
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 18.75 -1.0 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -23.5 -6.75 basis points
  • N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 66.76 -3.05%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 380.0 +1.2%
  • European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 78.0 -1.06%
  • Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 248.74 +9.7%
  • MBS 5/10 Treasury Spread 102.0 -.25 basis point
  • Markit CMBX BBB-6 75.50 unch.
  • M2 Money Supply YoY % Change 12.6 -.5 percentage point
  • Commercial Paper Outstanding 1,020.20 -.3%
  • 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 236,250 -3.0%
  • Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.1% -.1 percentage point
  • Kastle Back-to-Work Barometer(entries in secured buildings) 36.4 +15.0% 
  • Average 30-Year Fixed Home Mortgage Rate 4.25% +6.0 basis points
  • Weekly Mortgage Applications 466,400 -13.2%
  • Weekly Retail Sales +14.4% +.1 percentage point
  • OpenTable US Seated Diners % Change from 2019 -4.3% +8.1 percentage points
  • Box Office Weekly Gross $80.4M +4.7%
  • Nationwide Gas $3.57/gallon +.04/gallon
  • Baltic Dry Index 2,187 +11.4%
  • China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 3,525.58 -4.5%
  • Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 17.5 unch.
  • Truckstop.com Market Demand Index 161.30 +1.7%
  • Rail Freight Carloads 260,566 -2.8%
  • TSA Total Traveler Throughput 1,980,803 +8.5%
  • US Covid-19:  159 infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 9.0%(-6.0 percentage points) of peak on 1/14/22  -99/100K people from prior week
  • US Covid-19:  New patient hospital admissions per 100K -72.0%(-16.0 percentage points) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/22-1/15/22
Best Performing Style
  •  Mid-Cap Value +.2%
Worst Performing Style
  •  Large-Cap Growth -.5%
Leading Sectors
  • Steel +6.1%
  • Education +5.5%
  • Medical Equipment +3.7%
  • Defense +3.3%
  • Shipping +2.4%
Lagging Sectors
  • Papers -3.1%
  • Disk Drives -4.2%
  • Airlines -4.5%
  • Computer Hardware -4.7%
  •  Social Media -5.0%
Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (22)
  • ISPO, KAR, LNTH, SLCA, MMSI, ZETA, CPTN, IRM, SIGI, AMPH, HII, PETQ, CHK, MRVI, AIG, ANDE, GNK, LMT, ORA and PANW
Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (23)
  • FSLY, PLTR, LAUR, COLL, HR, RDFN, OLO, ALRM, GVA, DELL, PACK, CLMT, BYND, GDOT, BHVN, MTZ, AMEH, FTDR, ZS, LPSN, VICR, FL and EVBG
ETFs
Stocks
*5-Day Change

Stocks Surging into Afternoon on Russia/Ukraine Dialogue Hopes, Weak Sanctions on Russia, Declining European/Emerging Markets Debt Angst, Financial/Healthcare Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

  • Advance/Decline Line:  Substantially Higher
  • Sector Performance: Every Sector Rising
  • Volume:  Heavy
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 26.96 -11.0%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 3,244.0 +422.0 points
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 134.02 +.63%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.1 -4.3%
  • CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 44.9 -6.4% 
  • ISE Sentiment Index 89.0 unch.
  • Total Put/Call 1.0 -.99%
  • NYSE Arms 1.10 +1.85%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 65.54 -4.7%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 410.48 -4.2%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 77.38 -7.7%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 160.0 -5.0 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 110.41 +1.6%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 246.31 -8.4%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 30.79 -.06% 
  • Ukraine Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 1,041.31 +15.5%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 18.75 +.25 basis point
  • TED Spread 18.75 -3.0 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -23.5 +.25 basis point
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  102.0 -5.0 basis points
  • iShares CMBS ETF 51.03 -.47%
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 53.40 -1.63%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .30% +2.0 basis points
  • Yield Curve 37.75 +.75 basis point
  • China Iron Ore Spot 137.0 USD/Metric Tonne -.3%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 41.8 +10.7 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 72.6 +8.5 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 36.5 -.7 point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.56 -4.0 basis points
  • 0.0%(unch.) chance of no change at May 4th FOMC meeting, 0.0%(unch.) chance of no change at June 15th meeting
US Covid-19:
  • 159 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 9.0%(-1.0 percentage point) of 1/14 peak -11/100K people from prior report.
  • New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -72.0%(unch.) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/21 - 1/15/22
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +390 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +83 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -9 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher: On gains in my tech/consumer discretionary/industrial/medical/commodity sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades:  Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure:  Moved to 100% Net Long

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

  • Volume Running +26.8% Above 100-Day Average 
  • 11 Sectors Rising, 0 Sectors Declining
  • 72.7% of Issues Advancing, 24.1% Declining
  • 22 New 52-Week Highs, 50 New Lows
  • 32.9% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 40.0% 
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 3,144.0 +322.0 points
  • Russell 1000: Growth/Value 16,366.0 -1.2%
  • Vix 28.1 -7.3%
  • Total Put/Call .95 -5.9%
  • TRIN/Arms 1.20 +11.1%