Weekly Scoreboard*

S&P 500 2,918.65 -.46%

 
























The Weekly Wrap by Briefing.com.

 
Indices

• DJIA 26,287.44 -.75%

• NASDAQ 7,959.14 -.56%

• Russell 2000 1,513.04 -1.34%

• S&P 500 High Beta 40.52 -1.75%

• Goldman 50 Most Shorted 143.19 +.56%

• Wilshire 5000 29,959.66 -.48%

• Russell 1000 Growth 1,596.05 +.05%

• Russell 1000 Value 1,227.91 -.92%

• S&P 500 Consumer Staples 609.05 +.01%

• MSCI Cyclicals-Defensives Spread 1,107.84 -.51%
  

• NYSE Technology 1,884.84 -1.82%

• Transports 10,207.21 -1.61%

• Utilities 826.30 +1.03%

• Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 65.92 -3.95%

• MSCI Emerging Markets 40.02 +1.66%

• HFRX Equity Hedge 1,221.26 -.62%

• HFRX Equity Market Neutral 948.33 -.61%

Sentiment/Internals

• NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 363,898 -.12%

• Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index -17 +109

• Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 52.0 -15.2%

• CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 387,291 -2.65%

• CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 2,069,072 +.61%

• Total Put/Call 1.0 -10.7%

• OEX Put/Call 1.18 +257.6%

• ISE Sentiment 88.0 +41.9%

• NYSE Arms 1.84 +55.9%

• Volatility(VIX) 17.97 +2.04%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 41.77 +1.75%

• G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 7.80 +8.03%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 8.38 +5.41%

• Smart Money Flow Index 15,428.94 +4.19%

• ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $3.336 Trillion +1.76%

• ICI Domestic Equity Mutual Fund/ETFs Weekly Flows -$9.045 Billion

• AAII % Bulls 21.7 -43.7%

• AAII % Bears 48.2 +100.3%

Futures Spot Prices

• CRB Index 172.09 -.73%

• Crude Oil 54.40 -1.12%

• Reformulated Gasoline 166.99 -5.43%

• Natural Gas 2.11 -1.31%

• Heating Oil 180.66 -3.54%

• Gold 1,501.80 +3.86%

• Bloomberg Base Metals Index 172.53 +.4%

• Copper 259.40 +1.01%

• US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 288.0 USD/Metric Tonne -.52%

• China Iron Ore Spot 85.0 USD/Metric Tonne -17.5%

• Lumber 352.0 -4.85%

• UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 867.12 +.64%

Economy

• Atlanta Fed GDPNow Forecast +1.95% -28.0 basis points

• ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate .1% -10.0 basis points
• Bloomberg US Recession Probability Next 12 Months 34.2% +13.8%

• Philly Fed ADS Real-Time Business Conditions Index -.0404 +17.1%

• US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index 63.71 -24.7%

• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 175.26 -.05%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -30.90 +4.2 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -54.10 -3.2 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -20.30 +.1 point

• Fed Fund Futures imply 0.0% chance of no change, 100.0% chance of rate cut on 9/18

• US Dollar Index 97.50 -.6%

• MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,613.28 -.89%

• Bitcoin/USD 11,870.24 +13.56%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 122.90 -.09%

• Yield Curve 10.75 -2.75 basis points
  

• 10-Year US Treasury Yield 1.73% -12.0 basis points

• Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $3.742 Trillion +.07%

• U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 15.84 +4.07%

• Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 184.95 -.01%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 238.25 +35.5 basis points

• China Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 50.66 +9.77%
  

• Brazil Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 132.37 +.55%
  

• Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 59.86 -1.66%

• South Korea Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 32.11 +6.46%

• Russia Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 109.17 +5.42%

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 164.72 -.18%

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.66% unch.

• TED Spread 19.25 +.25 basis point

• 2-Year Swap Spread -1.25 -4.0 basis points

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -12.5 +4.25 basis points

• N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 59.10 +4.54%
  

• America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 393.0 -25.9%

• European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 71.31 +7.62%
  

• Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 177.98 +4.6%
  

• CMBS AAA Super Senior 10-Year Treasury Spread to Swaps 180.0 unch.
  

• M1 Money Supply $3.871 Trillion -.13%

• Commercial Paper Outstanding 1,139.80 -1.1%

• 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 212,250 +250

• Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.2% unch.
  

• Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate 3.60% -15.0 basis points

• Weekly Mortgage Applications 509.80 +5.33%

• Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 62.9 -1.8 points

• Weekly Retail Sales +4.80% +10.0 basis points

• Nationwide Gas $2.67/gallon -.05/gallon

• Baltic Dry Index 1,720 -3.8%

• China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 817.64 -.65%

• Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 20.0 unch.

• Rail Freight Carloads 275,119 +.85%

Best Performing Style

• Mid-Cap Growth +.7%

Worst Performing Style

• Small-Cap Value -1.5%

Leading Sectors

• Gold & Silver +5.7%

• Restaurants +2.4%

• Education +2.1%

• Hombuilding +1.7%

• Defense +1.4%

Lagging Sectors

• Banks -3.5% 

• I-Banks -4.2%

• Computer Services -4.7%

• Steel -4.8%

• Oil Service -9.5%

Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (8)

• OSTK, APPN, OMER, AMAG, YELP, CVNA, SONO and LAUR

Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (25)

• STAY, ENV, UBNT, RVLV, REAL, QNST, DXC, NKTR, MNST, AVT, ARNA, GPK, SRPT, KHC, NYT, Z, ZG, CDNA, ADVM, TSE, SSP, AAXN, RUN, DBX and MAT

Weekly Charts

ETFs

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

Stocks

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

*5-Day Change

Stocks Lower into Final Hour on China Trade Deal Concerns, European Debt Angst, Technical Selling, Retail/Airline Sector Weakness

 Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Declining
  

• Volume: Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 17.9 +6.0%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 122.85 -.23%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.35 +.36%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 39.0 -.23%

• ISE Sentiment Index 96.0 +41.2%
  

• Total Put/Call .99 -4.81%

• NYSE Arms 1.63 +158.70%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 59.15 +1.6%
  

• America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 393.0 -1.95%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 72.57 +7.6%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 238.25 +29.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 67.38 -1.13%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 178.28 +1.87%
  

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 164.72 -.16%

• 2-Year Swap Spread -1.25 +1.5 basis points

• TED Spread 19.25 unch.

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -12.5 -1.0 basis point

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 66.26 -.27%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 1.99% -2.0 basis points

• Yield Curve 9.75 -.5 basis point

• China Iron Ore Spot 85.23 USD/Metric Tonne -4.32%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -30.9 +.7 point

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -54.10 -1.1 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -20.3 -.4 point

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.66 +1.0 basis point
• 100.0% chance of Fed rate cut at Oct. 30th meeting, 100.0% chance of cut at Dec. 11th meeting

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -169 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -45 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +32 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Lower: On losses in my tech/biotech/retail sector longs

• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges

• Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Value -1.1%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Airlines -3.2% 2) Steel -3.0% 3) Computer Services -2.9%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• NKTR, FTCH, DXC, QNST, PUMP, ALTR, STML, AAXN, DBX, AMRN, GH, AVT, ZG, UBNT, UBER and REAL

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) TXMD 2) UNIT 3) CARS 4) BKLN 5) DBX

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) NKTR 2) GDOT 3) VRAY 4) TRUE 5) DXC

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Value -1.1%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Education +.6% 2) Restaurants +.3% 3) Utilities unch.

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• WAIR, PRMW, YELP, CHUY, PBYI, GDOT, CUTR, CYRX, RBA, SAFE, NVRO, APPN, PETQ, TRHC, ELY, USCR, EIDX, TTD, ICUI, OMER, BIS, OSTK, UEIC, SEDG, EPAY, OSTK, PCTY, LAUR, SONO, EPAY, TLND and USCR

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) VIAB 2) APC 3) YELP 4) DBX 5) TTD

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) CVNA 2) AVGO 3) ELY 4) DPLO 5) TGLS

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +1.0% Above 100-Day Average
• 1 Sector Rising, 10 Sectors Declining
• 28.8% of Issues Advancing, 68.6% Declining
• 165 New 52-Week Highs, 92 New Lows
• 54.7% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 44.1%
• Vix 18.6 +9.9%
• Total Put/Call 1.07 +2.9%
• TRIN/Arms 1.91 +203.0%

Friday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:

• U.S. Holds Off on Huawei Licenses as China Halts Crop-Buying.

• China Goes Big on Commodities Purchase Amid Shifting Trade War.  

• Japan’s Economy Grows Faster Than Expected in Second Quarter.

• U.S. Stock Futures Fall as Trade Frictions Return. U.S. equity futures fell and the yen climbed as trade tensions resurfaced, dampening positive sentiment from a strong Wall Street session Thursday. Treasury futures and gold climbed. Contracts on the S&P 500 fell 0.6% as Bloomberg reported the White House is holding off on a decision about licenses for U.S. companies to restart business with Huawei Technologies Co. after Beijing said it was halting purchases of U.S. farming goods. Asian futures had pointed higher after an almost 2% gain in the S&P 500 earlier. Investors have taken solace from efforts to stabilize the yuan and Friday’s fixing of the currency will be closely scrutinized. Treasuries remain volatile -- with the 10-year yield swinging nine basis points Thursday and closing at 1.72%. Futures on the S&P 500 Index lost 0.6% as of 8:08 a.m. in Tokyo. The underlying gauge increased 1.9% on Thursday. Futures on Japan’s Nikkei 225 gained 0.8%. Hang Seng futures earlier rose 0.5%.  

• Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day.

• Drop in U.S. Jobless Claims Shows Labor Market Remains Firm.  

• Investors Flee Junk Bonds in Droves as Trade War Batters Markets.

• Companies Use Borrowed Billions to Buy Back Stock, Not to Invest.

• DOJ Scrutinizes Google Advertising, Search in Antitrust Probe.

Wall Street Journal:

• FBI and Facebook Potentially at Odds Over Monitoring.

• Homeowners Rush to Refinance, Thanks to Falling Bond Yields.

• Trump Picks Acting Director of National Intelligence.

• GOP Groups Suspend Twitter Spending After McConnell Campaign Account Is Frozen.

Fox News:

• Onetime Miss Iraq clashes with ‘Squad’ member, says Dem ‘does not represent me as a Muslim’.

• New York Dems line up against bill to make cop soakings a felony.

• Gang member accused of stabbing rampage that killed 4, wounded 2.

MarketWatch.com:

• 20 companies, including Amazon and Chipotle, that are getting more profitable as sales improve.  

• More people are job-hopping, tempted by better salaries and the highest number of openings since 2000.

CNBC:

• Broadcom(AVGO) acquires Symantec’s(SYMC) enterprise business for $10.7 billion.

• Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: Uber, Yelp, and Farfetch.

• JP Morgan’s top stock market analysts say hold on tight and buy this market dip.

• Cramer: These two digital health stocks you can buy at a massive discount.

Zero Hedge:

• Nine Examples Of MSM Exploiting Mass Shootings To Spread Anti-Trump Propaganda.

• President Trump Readies Executive Order To Crack-Down Hard On Social Media Censorship Of Conservatives.

• NSA Whistleblower Confirms "They Can Use Your Data Against You Any Time".

• Scandal Erupts Over Murder-Porn Movie Where Elite Liberals Hunt Trump Supporters.

• Unconstitutional, Tyrannical Red Flag Gun Confiscation Laws Are Coming Fast.

• Tightening Nickel Supply Threatens Electric Vehicle Boom.

• New York Times Shares Continue Plunge After Company Admits Ad Revenue Will Decline Next Quarter.

• Nasdaq, Yuan Tumble After US Pulls Huawei Licenses.

• Stocks, Bonds, & Gold Gain As Easing Hopes Hide Global Risks. 

Business Insider:

• Uber(UBER) just reported massive losses that were larger than Wall Street expected — and the stock is sinking.

• Kashmir internet blackout so bad locals unaware India rewrote constitution.

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are unch. to +.5% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 66.75 -1.5 basis points.

• China Sovereign CDS 51.0 -1.25 basis points.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index  66.43 -.01%.

• FTSE 100 futures +.17%.

• S&P 500 futures -.40%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.50%.

Morning Preview Links 

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate

Before the Open:

• (YRCW)/.11

• (TRCO)/.71

• (SSP)/-.06

After the Close:

• (TDW)/-.17

Economic Releases
8:30 am EST

• The PPI Final Demand MoM for July is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.1% gain in June.

• PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM for July is estimated to rise +.1% versus a +.3% gain in June.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The China Inflation Data report and the UK Industrial Production report could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by industrial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.