Thursday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:                  

       

• U.K. Steps Up Talks With Industry as Brexit Disruption Closes In.
• U.K. Real Estate Agents See Property Market Weakening in 2021.
• Trump’s National Security Advisor Warns China on Hong Kong.  
• Stock Rally Fizzles After Recent Charge Higher: Markets Wrap.
• Oil Extends Gains on Signs OPEC+ Edging Toward Keeping Cuts.
• Moderna Vaccine Trial Reaches Key Goal to Gauge Shot’s Merit.  
• Richest New Yorkers Will Devastate City If They Leave With $133 Billion.  
• Growth-Stock Scare Looking Like a False Alarm to Options Market.

Wall Street Journal:

• OPEC Deepens Forecast for Drop in Global Oil Demand.
• Trump Suits Aim to Block Certification in Key States.
• Smaller House Majority Poses Headaches for Democrats.
• N.Y. Sets Curfew for Restaurants, Bars, Gyms as Covid-19 Cases Rise.

Fox News: 

• Black Lives Matter co-founder requests meeting, has a message for Biden, Harris.
  

CNBC.com:

• Biden Covid advisor says U.S. lockdown of 4 to 6 weeks could control pandemic and revive economy.
• The market is ‘being very cavalier’ about risks the U.S. faces, Jim Cramer says.
• U.S. prepares for worst four months of the pandemic as it stares down the ‘darkest’ days yet.
• Pfizer CEO sold $5.6 million of stock as company announced vaccine data that sent shares soaring.
• Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: Moderna, Revolve, Fossil & more.

MarketWatch.com:          

• ‘Unprecedented’ selloff in hot-streak stocks could become ‘self-fulfilling prophecy,’ says quant who warned of Monday’s rotation.

Zero Hedge:

• Goldman Spots An "Early Indicator" US Economy Is Rolling Over Due To Covid Resurgence
• JPMorgan Finds No Benefits From COVID Lockdowns.
• Deutsche Bank Proposes A 5% "Work From Home" Privilege Tax.
• Once "Immune" To The Pandemic, The Financial Industry Is About To Face A Wave Of Layoffs.
• Georgia Announces Hand Recount As Razor-Thin Margins Persist.
• Professor Declares "Legal Vote" A Racist Term Like "Handouts" & "Personal Responsibility".
• Toobin Fired From New Yorker For Jerking Off During Zoom Call.
• Martin Armstrong Warns Cashless World Signals Global End To Privacy.
• 17 People Were Shot In Chicago On Monday Alone.
• With Bonds Away, Tech Bulls Will Play.

OANN:

• Ga. Democrat Senate hopeful Warnock voiced praise for controversial preacher.
• Evidence of alleged voter fraud appears in Mich., Pa.

@kylenabecker:

• DOMINION Voting Systems. (video). "This image-cast evolution voting machine has the physical ability to mark votes onto the ballot after the last time the voter sees the ballot... and that's a DISASTER. " Princeton comp. science prof Andrew Appel shreds Dominion voting systems. America was warned.

The Epoch Times:

• Beijing Took Advantage of Pandemic to Interfere With US Election: China Expert.
• China’s Tianjin City Declares State of Emergency After Confirming COVID-19 Cases.
  

Digital Blackboard:

• Daily New Cases by Region.

Worldometer:

• New Cases/Deaths by state.

Rt Covid-19:

• How fast virus is growing by state.

KFF:

• State Data(Tests/Hospitalizations).

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.5% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 57.5 -.75 basis point.

• China Sovereign CDS 27.75 -1.0 basis point.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 60.79 unch.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 1,193.0 -13.0 points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 25.08 +.42%
• FTSE 100 futures -.60%.

• S&P 500 futures -.01%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.09%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• (CCL)/-1.90
• (ENR)/.81
• (IGT)/-.23
• (SINA)/.77
• (SSYS)/-.07
• (TNK)/.19
• (WB)/.60
  

After the Close:

• (AMAT)/1.17
• (CSCO)/.70
• (DLPH)/.10
• (DDS)/-.51
• (DIS)/-.65
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• The CPI MoM for Oct. is estimated to rise +.1% versus a +.2% gain in Sept.
• The CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM for Oct. is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.2% gain in Sept.
• Real Avg. Weekly Earnings YoY for Oct.
• Initial Jobless Claims for last week are estimated to fall to 734K versus 751K the prior week.
• Continuing Claims are estimated to fall to 6900K versus 7285K prior.
  

2:00 pm EST

• Monthly Budget Deficit for Oct. is estimated to widen to -$275.0B versus -$124.6B prior.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Eurozone PMI report, UK GDP report, German inflation data, 30Y T-Bond auction, weekly Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index, Berenberg Conference, (QDEL) investor day, (DPZ) Investor Q&A and the JPMorgan Consumer/Retail Conference could also impact trading today.

Market Hours
Normal:

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and consumer shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Higher into Final Hour on Oil Gain, Sector Rotation, Technical Buying, Tech/Biotech Sector Strength

 Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Slightly Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed
  

• Volume: Above Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 23.2 -6.3%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 1,221.50 +111.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 128.63 -.14%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.8 +.8%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 40.6 -8.6%

• ISE Sentiment Index 91.0 -31.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call 1.04 +28.4%

• NYSE Arms 1.48 +45.1%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 53.36 +.95%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 717.82 n/a

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 63.83 unch.

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 125.0 unch.
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 57.58 -1.74%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 171.56 unch.
  

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 180.94 +.08%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 8.5 unch.

• TED Spread 11.25 unch.
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -14.75 -.75 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  71.5 -.25 basis point
  
• IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 70.5 +.5 basis point

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 60.78 +.45%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .09% unch.

• Yield Curve 74.75 +.25 basis point
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 120.45 USD/Metric Tonne -.54%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 99.20 -2.7 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 92.7 +.9 point
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 52.4 +2.2 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.75 -1.0 basis point
• 100.0% chance of no change at Jan. 27th meeting, 100.0% chance of no change at March 17th meeting

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +256 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -6 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -13 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my tech/biotech/consumer staple sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades: None
  

• Market Exposure: 50% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Value -1.6%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Airlines -2.6% 2) Oil Service -2.1% 3) Steel -1.5%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• HWM, STL, FANG, RKT, ALEX, ESS, PRU, RGA, BURL, FLT, SF, OXY, AXP, SLQT, SKX, SLG, APPN, CFR, RHP, DAL, CATY, STOR, KKR, NNN, SLB, ASB, DCT, FMBI, JBGS, FUN, IPG, FRT, ICPT, HRMY, UAA, EWBC, ZION, RCL, TCF, CMA, ARNA, UE, VERX, CNK, EVOP, ABR, ROIC, SPG, ARI, TRIP, CHEF, HSIC, LMND, ASH, USFD, ESPR, GO, PK, KSS, SPR, HA, JWN, WEX, APD, SILK, EPR, PFGC, ALTM, MODN, DDOG, BSY and EGAN
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) DISCA 2) DHI 3) NEE 4) REV 5) CIEN
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) DDOG 2) MODN 3) COHR 4) TLRY 5) TCMD
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Mid-Cap Growth +1.9%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Alt Energy +3.3% 2) Semis +3.2% 3) Software +25%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• REV, ARCT, PACB, FUBO, BRKS, PSNL, PLUG, LE, ROAD, PI, DOX, BSIG, BHVN, ZG, FVAC, ONEM, VSTO, PRVB, DNLI, STMP, NLOK, RPRX and LYFT
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) REV 2) CLNY 3) AES 4) FUBO 5) VLY

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) FPRX 2) FUBO 3) BRKS 4) HUYA 5) PDD
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

 

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +18.1% Above 100-Day Average
• 7 Sectors Rising, 4 Sectors Declining
• 47.8% of Issues Advancing, 49.4% Declining
• 35 New 52-Week Highs, 2 New Lows
• 73.5% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 55.8% 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 1,185.0 +84.0 points
• Vix 23.6 -4.9%
• Total Put/Call .79 -2.5%
• TRIN/Arms 1.31 +28.4%

Wednesday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:                  

• Korea’s Jobless Rate Unexpectedly Rises as Virus Persists.
• EU Funds Biometric Tech Used for Returning African Migrants.  
• Asia Stocks Extend Advance; U.S. Tech Retreats: Markets Wrap.   
• Oil Extends Gains After Report Points to Easing U.S. Stockpiles.  
• Kaplan on Quarters Ahead, Singles Day Boom, RBNZ Delay: Eco Day.
• For FX Contrarians, Much of Dollar Weakness Has Been Priced In.
• Covid Roars Back in U.S. Cities After Months as a Rural Problem.  
• Lilly CEO Sees Supply Squeeze for New Antibody Drug as Covid-19 Cases Surge.  
• New York’s Daily Covid Count Nears 4,000, Worst Since May.
• GOP Has Eyes on Georgia as Party Backs Trump on Election Fight.  
• Record Low Mortgage Rates Widen Historic U.S. Economic Divides.

Wall Street Journal:

• Pfizer Vaccine Faces Distribution Challenge.
• Election Observers at Crux of Trump Lawsuits in Pennsylvania.
• The Supreme Court’s Pennsylvania Cleanup.
• Good Grief, the Pollsters Got It Wrong.
• M.B.A. Applications Are Up Because Job Market Is Down.
• Job Openings Are Rising Closer to Prepandemic Levels.
• Boeing Faces Possible FAA Enforcement Action.

Fox News: 

• Biden's COVID adviser would distribute vaccine globally before US.
  

CNBC.com:

• Remote work is ‘here to stay’ — even with a vaccine, says former IBM CEO.
• Supreme Court appears willing to leave Obamacare in place.

MarketWatch.com:          

• Beyond Meat and McDonald’s haven’t confirmed their work on the McPlant, which one analyst finds ‘extremely strange’.  
• Aurora Cannabis plans to sell more stock, and shares are plunging in late trading.

Zero Hedge:

• Ex-CIA Chief Under Obama Urges Palace Coup Against Trump So He Doesn't "Declassify Everything".
• "Shredding The Fabric Of Our Democracy": Biden Aide Signals Push For Greater Internet Censorship.
• Ten Attorneys General Join Supreme Court Case Against Pennsylvania Mail-In Ballot Deadline.
• Illinois, Utah & Montana Break COVID-19 Records As US Death Toll Nears 240k: Live Updates.
• Communist Party Expands Crackdown On China's Tech Billionaires After Spoiling Ant Financial IPO.
• Jeff Bezos No Longer Interested In Buying CNN As AT&T Reportedly Looks To Dump Network.
• With Illinois COVID-19 Cases Soaring, Officially Reported Information Is Increasingly Useless.
• Here Are All The Things That Could Still Go Wrong With A COVID-19 Vaccine.
• Elite Schools Are The Most Problematic On Speech.
• Woman Who Voted For Trump In Texas Shocked To Find She Also 'Voted' Via Mail-In-Ballot In California.
• WTI Extends Gains On Bigger Than Expected Crude Draw.
• The Collectivist Nature Of Social Media Platforms And Big Tech.
• Momentum Massacre Trounces Tech Stocks; Bonds Drop, Bullion Pops.

OANN:

• Data: Over 10k dead people voted in Mich., fraud probe underway.

The Epoch Times:

• Chinese State Media Touts a Biden Win, Indicates Hope for Pro-Beijing US Administration: Analyst.
• LIVE: Chinese Communist Party’s Crimes Against US and the World.
  

Digital Blackboard:

• Daily New Cases by Region.

Worldometer:

• New Cases/Deaths by state.

Rt Covid-19:

• How fast virus is growing by state.

KFF:

• State Data(Tests/Hospitalizations).

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to -.75% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 58.25 -.5 basis point.

• China Sovereign CDS 28.75 +.5 basis point.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 60.50 +.01%
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 1,115.0 +4.0 points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 25.61 +.73%
• FTSE 100 futures -.43%.

• S&P 500 futures -.10%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.07%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• (APD)/2.21
• (LM)/.85
• (LMND)/-.58
  

After the Close:

• (HI)/.56

Economic Releases

10:30 am EST

• Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory decline of -788,090 barrels versus a -7,998,000 barrel decline the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to rise by +338,640 barrels versus a +1,541,000 barrel gain the prior week. Distillate inventories are estimated to fall by -1,500,270 barrels versus a -1,584,000 barrel decline the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to rise by +.54% versus a +.7% gain prior.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Japan inflation data, weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report, Roth Tech Conference, Stifel Growth Conference and the (VZ) analyst meeting could also impact trading today.

Market Hours
Normal:

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by commodity and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Slightly Lower into Final Hour on Mounting Election Fraud Evidence, Increasing Virus Concerns, Rising Long-Term Rates, Tech/Gaming Sector Weakness

 Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Modestly Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed
  

• Volume: Heavy

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 25.6 -.6%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 1,050.0 +102.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 128.94 +.01%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.7 +1.7%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 44.8 -9.9%

• ISE Sentiment Index 122.0 -31.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .78 +6.9%

• NYSE Arms 1.40 +105.8%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 52.08 -.58%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 717.82 -.86%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 63.83 -.71%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 125.0 -2.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 58.66 -3.55%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 171.56 -.11%
  

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 180.69 +.01%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 8.5 +1.0 basis point

• TED Spread 11.25 -.75 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -14.0 -.75 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  71.75 -.25 basis point
  
• IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 70.0 +1.75 basis points

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 60.59 -.17%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .09% unch.

• Yield Curve 74.5 +7.25 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 119.60 USD/Metric Tonne +.4%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 101.90 -3.1 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 91.8 -4.7 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 50.2 -.3 point

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.76 +3.0 basis points
• 100.0% chance of no change at Jan. 27th meeting, 100.0% chance of no change at March 17th meeting

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +440 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +32 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +9 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Lower: On losses in my medical/tech sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades: None
  

• Market Exposure: 50% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth -1.3%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Video Gaming -3.5% 2) Social Media -2.8% 3) Software -2.5%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• CMG, ADBE, BILL, TMO, NOW, RCL, SRG, MTN, WYNN, NOV, MDB, SLG, STMP, AAXN, ALRM, PS, PLNT, PINS, MRTX, EVOP, CHGG, PRPL, NVDA, TXG, SQ, TNDM, EB, TTD, ELY, WORK, TWOU, CHWY, DRI, AMD, LTHM, SAVE, MGNI, AXNX, NCLH, FSLR, ZM, FOUR, REAL, CALX, NLS, AL, HA, DENN, TTCF, CUK, CCL, RPAY, RVNC, VITL, NVAX, NBIX, SUPN, BYND, RAMP, PRAX and ARNA
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) AR 2) FE 3) ADI 4) RDFN 5) ZS
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) VYGR 2) BTU 3) NBIX 4) SSTI 5) JMIA
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Value +2.3%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Homebuilders +5.1% 2) Tobacco +3.8% 3) Construction +2.5%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• XPER, WES, SPR, GVA, ZI, TRIP, WIFI, ICPT, FLGT, CHEF, WBA, ULTA, ARCT, WLL, CLH, DHI, ASGN, LOB, BA, HWM, CYH, PTON, THS, SGRY, FBC, CUBE, LEVI, USFD, KIM, DNLI, DEI, AVB, ELS, ATRA, NNN, FUBO, EBIX, KRC, PEN, EQR, CPS, PEB, NWS and AGNC
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) AHT 2) PRTS 3) SPR 4) TWO 5) GNW

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) ULTA 2) LEVI 3) ICPT 4) AMGN 5) CAE
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

 

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +62.2% Above 100-Day Average
• 7 Sectors Rising, 4 Sectors Declining
• 62.4% of Issues Advancing, 35.2% Declining
• 31 New 52-Week Highs, 3 New Lows
• 69.5% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 54.9% 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 1,084.0 +136.0 points
• Vix 25.0 -3.0%
• Total Put/Call .71 -2.7%
• TRIN/Arms 1.03 +50.0%