Wednesday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.5% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 58.5 +.75 basis point.

• China Sovereign CDS 29.25 +1.0 basis point.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 62.27 -.01%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 1,389.0 +13.0 points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 26.4 +2.23%
• FTSE 100 futures -.48%.

• S&P 500 futures -.54%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.41%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• (PAYX)/.66

After the Close:

• None of note
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• Durable Goods Orders for Nov. is estimated to rise +.6% versus a +1.3% gain in Oct.
• Durables Ex Transports for Nov. is estimated to rise +.5% versus a +1.3% gain in Oct. 
• Cap Goods Orders Non-Defense Ex Air for Nov. is estimated to rise +.6% versus a +.8% gain in Oct.
• Initial Jobless Claims for last week are estimated to fall to 880K versus 885K the prior week.
• Continuing Claims are estimated to rise to 5560K versus 5508K prior.
• Personal Income for Nov. is estimated to fall -.3% versus a -.7% decline in Oct.
• Personal Spending for Nov. is estimated to fall -.2% versus a +.5% gain in Oct.
• The PCE Core MoM for Nov. is estimated to rise +.1% versus unch. in Oct.
  

9:00 am EST

• The FHFA House Price Index MoM for Oct. is estimated to rise +.6% versus a +1.7% gain in Sept.

10:00 am EST

• New Home Sales for Nov. is estimated to fall to 995K versus 999K in Oct. 

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report and bank lending report could also impact trading today.

Market Hours
Normal:

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, weighed boosted by commodity and consumer shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Wednesday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.5% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 58.5 +.75 basis point.

• China Sovereign CDS 29.25 +1.0 basis point.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 62.27 -.01%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 1,389.0 +13.0 points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 26.4 +2.23%
• FTSE 100 futures -.48%.

• S&P 500 futures -.54%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.41%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• (PAYX)/.66

After the Close:

• None of note
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• Durable Goods Orders for Nov. is estimated to rise +.6% versus a +1.3% gain in Oct.
• Durables Ex Transports for Nov. is estimated to rise +.5% versus a +1.3% gain in Oct. 
• Cap Goods Orders Non-Defense Ex Air for Nov. is estimated to rise +.6% versus a +.8% gain in Oct.
• Initial Jobless Claims for last week are estimated to fall to 880K versus 885K the prior week.
• Continuing Claims are estimated to rise to 5560K versus 5508K prior.
• Personal Income for Nov. is estimated to fall -.3% versus a -.7% decline in Oct.
• Personal Spending for Nov. is estimated to fall -.2% versus a +.5% gain in Oct.
• The PCE Core MoM for Nov. is estimated to rise +.1% versus unch. in Oct.
  

9:00 am EST

• The FHFA House Price Index MoM for Oct. is estimated to rise +.6% versus a +1.7% gain in Sept.

10:00 am EST

• New Home Sales for Nov. is estimated to fall to 995K versus 999K in Oct. 

10:30 am EST

• Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory decline of -2,899,560 barrels versus a -3,135,000 barrel decline the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to rise by +248,780 barrels versus a +1,020,000 barrel gain the prior week. Distillate inventories are estimated to fall by -1,538,890 barrels versus a +167,000 barrel gain the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to rise by +.52% versus a -.8% decline prior.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report and bank lending report could also impact trading today.

Market Hours
Normal:

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, weighed boosted by commodity and consumer shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Slightly Lower into Afternoon on Virus Mutation/Shutdown Fears, Senate Control Worries, Oil Decline, Commodity/Financial Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Modestly Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed
  

• Volume: Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 24.1 -4.2%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 1,205.0 -34.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 130.37 -.37%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.5 +.38%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 49.2 +1.7%

• ISE Sentiment Index 106.0 +3.0 pionts
  

• Total Put/Call .59 -25.3%

• NYSE Arms 1.40 +28.4%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 55.67 +.82%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 581.08 +.32%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 64.21 +1.26%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 115.0 unch.
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 57.63 -1.08%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 162.01 -.67%
  

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 183.48 -.16%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 8.75 +.25 basis point

• TED Spread 16.0 +.5 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -34.0 -5.75 basis points
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  76.0 +2.5 basis points
  
• IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 72.75 unch.

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 62.30 -.48%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .07% -1.0 basis point
  

• Yield Curve 80.75 unch.
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 162.0 USD/Metric Tonne -7.2%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 65.2 -1.5 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 200.40 -1.3 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 70.3 -.6 point

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.94 -1.0 basis point
• 100.0% chance of no change at March 17th meeting, 100.0% chance of no change at April 28th meeting

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +109 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +61 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -13 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my tech/biotech/medical sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades: None
  

• Market Exposure: 50% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Value -.4%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Shipping -2.5% 2) Airlines -1.6% 3) Steel -1.6%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• DMYD, TSLA, BLI, USCR, LOB, MGTX, INAQ, MOS, RVP, RYTM, NCLH, SUMO, AVO, SNDX, RAD, LE, OSTK, KMX, NVAX and MRNA
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) MVIS 2) KMX 3) SPWR 4) EWJ 5) EMB
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) CVGW 2) BRY 3) YY 4) CB 5) BSX
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth +1.3%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Alt Energy +4.9% 2) Digital Health +2.3% 3) Networking +1.2%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• SPWH, QS, RIOT, GME, IPV, VSTO, SGMO, SOL, ALVR, BLNK, FCEL, FUBO, LGVW, VCYT, IAC, SPRO, ROOT, MARA, NLS, THCB, CLSK, CDXS, MWK, SI, TCS, PTON, PRLB, INSG, SMPL, REAL, AKTS, LOAK, STPK, HRTX, LITE, MP, NVTA, NK, VLDR, CDAY, CLDR, OAC, DM, DBX, VEEV amd RMG
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) LITE 2) VSTO 3) URBN 4) GNPX 5) SPWH

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) FUBO 2) PTON 3) TDOC 4) TMUS 5) RCII
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -8.8% Below 100-Day Average
• 1 Sector Rising, 10 Sectors Declining
• 46.0% of Issues Advancing, 51.4% Declining
• 247 New 52-Week Highs, 4 New Lows
• 84.1% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 51.5% 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 1,188.0 -54.0 points
• Vix 24.5 -2.7%
• Total Put/Call .58 -26.6%
• TRIN/Arms 1.38 +26.6%

Tuesday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:       

• Westerners Grow Wary of China Travel Over Threat of Detention.  
• Why the U.K.’s Mutated Coronavirus Is Fanning Worries.  
• U.S. Adds Over 100 Chinese, Russian Companies to Military List.  
• Asian Stocks Slip on Virus Concerns; Dollar Steady: Markets Wrap.  
• Oil Holds Loss With Virus Mutation Threatening Global Movement.
• N.J. Sees 20% Spike; Bidens Receive Pfizer Vaccine: Virus Update.
• Checks, Tax Breaks and Airline Aid: What’s in Virus Relief Bill.  
• Rich Americans Who Fear Higher Taxes Hurry to Move Money Now.
  
• McConnell Says He Will Allow Biden’s Cabinet Nominees a Hearing.  
• Apple Targets Autonomous Car for Consumers by 2024, Reuters Says.  
• IPO Frenzy Drives Record $435 Billion in U.S. Stock Sales.

Wall Street Journal:

• A Pandemic of Misinformation.
• Covid Prompts Families to Shun Nursing Homes, a Shift That Appears Long Lasting.
• SolarWinds Hack Hit Office Home to Top Treasury Department Officials.

Fox News:    

• Trump plans 'big rally' for Loeffler, Perdue in Georgia.
• Ga. sec'y of state takes action with 8K out-of-state voters to protect runoffs.
• Read what's inside massive government spending bill.
  

CNBC.com:

• Mark Cuban: Bitcoin is ‘more religion than solution’ and won’t help in ‘doomsday scenarios’.
• U.S. plans to study allergic reactions from Pfizer’s Covid vaccine.
• Stimulus deal won’t extend payment pause for 42 million student loan borrowers.
• Here’s what’s in the $900 billion coronavirus relief plan.

MarketWatch.com:           

• The ‘single greatest risk’ facing Americans could hit within a decade, billionaire investor warns.
  
• ‘This is probably it for a while’: Hard road foreseen for further stimulus as Biden presses for more aid.
  
• ‘It’s unconscionable’: Outrage over the ‘three-martini lunch’ tax deduction in the new coronavirus aid deal.

Zero Hedge:

• Pork City: Here Are The Most Ridiculous Pet Projects In $900 Billion Stimulus Package.
• DeBlasio Mocks Fox, Doubles Down On 'Mission To Redistribute Wealth'.
• Lockdowns Do Not Control The Coronavirus: The Evidence.
• SIFMA Issues Paper To Assist With Planning For Negative Rates In The US.
• Apple "Moving Forward" With Self-Driving Car Technology.
• Gov Newsom In Quarantine; 30+ Countries Bar Travel With UK Over COVID Mutation: Live Updates.
• Climate Change Is The New Fed Mandate.
• Top Scientists Questioned COVID Lab Origin In Explosive Emails; Concerns Grow Over 'Impartial' WHO Probe.
• Government, Not COVID-19, Is Killing Small Businesses.
• Stocks Dump'n'Pump As Bank Buybacks & Bailouts 'Crush' COVID Mutation Concerns.

Newsmax:

• Trump: Talked to Tuberville, Who Hinted at Electoral-Vote Challenge.  
• Ga. Runoff Turnout Nears 1.5M and Heads Toward Record.
• Jenna Ellis Fires Back at Barr Over Nixing Elex Special Counsel.

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• Democrats’ “Stimulus” Bill Gives $600 to Suffering Americans – But Sends More Than $2 Billion to Africa and Asia.
• CRINGE: Kamala Harris Channels Hillary Clinton, Musters Fake Accent While Campaigning in Georgia (VIDEO).
• Rudy Giuliani: Audit Dominion Machines In Key States.

The Epoch Times:

• Zoom Shared US User Data With Beijing to Ensure Chinese Market Access, Court Documents Show.
• China Insider: China Spies on Americans through Caribbean Phone Networks.
• Grenell: ‘Very Concerned’ With Biden and His NSA Pick Over China.

Geller Report: 

• LOOK Who Owns Dominion Voting Systems: Politically Motivated PRIVATE Equity NY Hedge Fund.

The Atlantic:

• The End of the Filibuster—No, Really. Many activists will not tolerate a Democratic-controlled Senate that allows Republicans to block legislation next year.

Politico:

• AOC Lays Out Progressive Wish List for Biden.

Glenn Beck:

• Elizabeth Warren’s ‘progressive wish list’ will destroy America. (video)

Daily Caller:

• Trump Urges Supporters Not To Boycott Georgia Senate Elections. President Donald Trump urged his supporters not to boycott the upcoming runoff Senate elections in Georgia on Friday, saying a boycott would be “playing right into the hands” of Democrats.
  

NTD News:

• "A lot of people, friends of mine, say, let's not vote... But if you do that, the radical left wins. ... You're angry because so many votes were stolen, it was taken away...If you don't vote, the socialists and the communists win"—Trump rallies for Perdue and Loeffler. (video) 

ProtectTheVote.com: 

• Serious allegations of misconduct in the 2020 elections have resulted in unprecedented legal action to ensure our elections are -- and remain -- free and fair. Find out where we’re exposing fraud and how you can help.

HereIsTheEvidence.com:

• This is for aggregating publicly available items of voter fraud evidence in the US election that would be admissible in court.
  

Digital Blackboard:

• Daily New Cases by Region.

Worldometer:

• New Cases/Deaths by state.

Rt Covid-19:

• How fast virus is growing by state.

KFF:

• State Data(Tests/Hospitalizations).

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.75% to -.25% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 57.75 +1.0 basis point.

• China Sovereign CDS 28.25 +.75 basis point.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 62.58 -.03%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 1,250.0 +9.0 points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 26.4 +.28%
• FTSE 100 futures +.02%.

• S&P 500 futures -.15%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.11%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• (KMX)/1.13
• (CTAS)/2.18
• (NEOG)/.31
  

After the Close:

• None of note
  

Economic Releases

10:00 am EST

• The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index for Dec. is estimated to rise to 97.0 versus 96.1 in Nov.
• Existing Home Sales for Nov. is estimated to fall to 6.7M versus 6.85M in Oct.
• The Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index for Dec. is estimated to fall to 10.0 versus 15.0 in Nov.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The GFK Consumer Confidence report and the US weekly retail sales reports could also impact trading today.

Market Hours
Normal:

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by commodity and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Modestly Lower into Afternoon on New Virus Strain, European/Emerging Market/US High-Yld Debt Angst, Senate Control Fears, Energy/Transport Sector Weakness

 Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Declining
  

• Volume: Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 24.6 +13.8%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 1,289.0 -164.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 130.96 +.01%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.64 +3.0%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 47.7 -.5%

• ISE Sentiment Index 109.0 unch.
  

• Total Put/Call .75 -1.3%

• NYSE Arms .88 -40.5%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 55.12 +3.57%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 573.97  unch.

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 63.41 +8.48%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 115.0 +1.0 basis point
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 58.24 +2.74%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 163.09 +4.0%
  

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 183.77 +.22%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 8.5 unch.

• TED Spread 15.5 -.25 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -28.25 -3.75 basis points
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  73.5 +.75 basis point
  
• IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 72.75 unch.

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 62.63 -.18%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .08% unch.
  

• Yield Curve 80.75 +.25 basis point
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 174.0 USD/Metric Tonne +5.1%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 66.7 -4.6 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 201.70 -3.8 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 70.9 +.3 point

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.95 -1.0 basis point
• 100.0% chance of no change at March 17th meeting, 100.0% chance of no change at April 28th meeting

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -184 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -64 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +105 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my tech/biotech sector longs and index hedges
  

• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges, then added them back
  

• Market Exposure: 50% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Value -1.2%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Airlines -3.1% 2) Energy -2.9% 3) Oil Service -2.3%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• CUE, CLDT, CODI, VIE, EL, LITE, DFIN, ABR, TOWN, OCFC, CNC, AMD, DIN, AAL, VC, INFN, WYNN, SLG, CUK, FSS, COUP, VSAT, TISI, FIS, SWX, STRL, EVOP, ALBO, NLTX, KURA, CWH, FDS, NFG, MLHR, CCL, FOCS, SCHL, WW, DENN, ICPT, GDEN, BDTX, QLYS, VER, PCVX, FANG, TSLA, VNOM, SR, OM, IHRT, ACCD, NBLX, VBTX, MSGN, OXY, CPE, SCS, PASG, FGEN and CURO
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) DD 2) DRI 3) ATUS 4) FL 5) MJ
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) CVIAQ 2) SCHL 3) CDE 4) PLTR 5) IHRT
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth -.2%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Banks +1.7% 2) Alt Energy +1.2% 3) Gold & Silver +.9%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• NK, EDIT, RP, AGIO, PIC, SI, AJRD, NTLA, HGEN, FUBO, LAZR, MARA, QS, BEAM, ROOT, SRAC, SWI, TTCF, RMG, MGNI, DM, RCII, SGMO, MP, BEEM, HMSY, RVP, RIOT, LQDT, SDC, GS, THBR, VLDR, MSTR and NKE
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) AJRD 2) NK 3) KMX 4) MNST 5) FEYE

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) ORIC 2) PLTR 3) AJRD 4) NKE 5) DRI
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume