Monday, January 11, 2021

Tuesday Watch

Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:        
Wall Street Journal:
Fox News:    
CNBC.com:
MarketWatch.com:       
Zero Hedge:
Newsmax:
TheGatewayPundit.com:
The Epoch Times: 
ProtectTheVote.com: 
HereIsTheEvidence.com:
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are -.75% to +.25% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 60.75 +3.75 basis points.
  • China Sovereign CDS 30.0 +.25 basis point.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 62.0 -.08%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 1,963.0 +60.0 points.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 25.9 -1.05%.
  • FTSE 100 futures -.03%.
  • S&P 500 futures +.03%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.08%.
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 
 
Before the Open: 
  • (ACI)/.28
After the Close:
  •  (KBH)/.93
Economic Releases
6:00 am EST
  • Small Business Optimism for Dec. is estimated to fall to 100.2 versus 101.4 in Nov.
10:00 am EST
  • JOLTS Job Openings for Nov. is estimated to fall to 6400 versus 6652 in Oct .
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Fed's Brainard speaking, UK Trade Balance report, $38B 10Y T-Note auction, US weekly retail sales reports, UBS Infrastructure/Energy Conference, JPMorgan Tech/Auto Forum at CES and the Goldman Tech/Internet Conference could also impact trading today.
Market Hours
Normal:
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by technology and consumer shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Lower into Final Hour on Divisive Political Rhetoric/Actions, Free Speech Worries, Valuation Concerns, Tech/Telecom Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume: Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 24.1 +11.8%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 1,895.0 -160.0 points
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 131.14 -.34%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.92 +2.6%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 48.5 +3.2%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 100.0 -9.0 points
  • Total Put/Call .73 +1.4%
  • NYSE Arms .56 -52.1%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 50.77 +2.22%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 510.67 -.15%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 59.90 +2.94%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 106.0 +1.0 basis point
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 59.58 +3.62%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 161.90 +5.31%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 184.88 +.06%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 7.25 -.5 basis point
  • TED Spread 15.5 +1.0 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -4.75 -1.5 basis points
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  69.75 +1.75 basis points
  • IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 73.25 -.5 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 62.11 -.72%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .08% unch.
  • Yield Curve 96.0 unch.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 164.80 USD/Metric Tonne -1.5%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 60.0 -2.4 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 167.20 -4.0 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 65.70 -3.3 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.06 +2.0 basis points
  • 100.0% chance of no change at March 17th meeting, 100.0% chance of no change at April 28th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -100 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -52 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -23 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher: On gains in my tech/biotech sector longs, index hedges and emerging market shorts
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 50% Net Long

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:
  • Volume Running -.6% Below 100-Day Average 
  • 5 Sectors Rising, 6 Sectors Declining
  • 37.6% of Issues Advancing, 63.0% Declining
  • 132 New 52-Week Highs, 4 New Lows
  • 85.1% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 54.0% 
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 1,924.0 -130.0 points
  • Vix 23.6 +9.3%
  • Total Put/Call .75 +4.2%
  • TRIN/Arms .59 -48.7%

Sunday, January 10, 2021

Monday Watch

Today's Headlines
Bloomberg:      
Wall Street Journal:
Fox News:
CNBC: 
Zero Hedge: 
NewsMax:   
TheGatewayPundit.com:
The Epoch Times:
ProtectTheVote.com: 
HereIsTheEvidence.com:
Digital Blackboard:
Worldometer:
Rt Covid-19:
KFF:
Night Trading
  • Asian indices are -.75% to +.75% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 58.25 +1.25 basis points.
  • China Sovereign CDS 28.5 unch.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 62.47 -.14%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 2,070.0 +16.0 points.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 25.2 +1.4%. 
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.11%.
  • S&P 500 futures -.33%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -.22%.

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate

Before the Open:
  • (AZZ)/.68
  • (CMC)/.53
After the Close:
  • (SNX)/3.70
Economic Releases
  • None of note
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The China Inflation Data report, 3Y T-Note auction, JPMorgan Healthcare Conference, Needham Growth Conference, CES 2021, Morgan Stanley Auto Conference and the (ZS) analyst day could also impact trading today.
Market Hours
Normal:
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by industrial and consumer shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the week.

Saturday, January 09, 2021

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:  
Wall Street Journal:
CNBC:
  • Had bullish commentary on (BKNG), (DRI), (LUV), (TOL), (LEN), (RIO), (VMC) and (TECK).
  • Had bearish commentary on (GME).
MarketWatch.com:    
Fox News:
Newsmax:  
Zero Hedge:
@kylenabecker:
TheGatewayPundit.com: