Monday, January 25, 2021

Tuesday Watch

Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:           
Wall Street Journal:
Fox News:  
CNBC.com:
MarketWatch.com: 
Zero Hedge:
TheGatewayPundit.com:
The Epoch Times:
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are -1.0% to unch. on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 61.25 unch.
  • China Sovereign CDS 30.75 +.75 basis point.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 62.04 -.02%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 2,013.0 -16 points.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 26.1 +.37%.
  • FTSE 100 futures +.24%.
  • S&P 500 futures -.33%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -.29%.
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 
 
Before the Open: 
  • (MMM)/2.17
  • (ALK)/-2.93
  • (AXP)/1.30
  • (ADM)/1.09
  • (ALV)/1.85
  • (DHI)/1.72
  • (FCX)/.40
  • (JNJ)/1.83
  • (LMT)/6.31
  • (NEE)/.38
  • (PCAR)/1.20
  • (PII)/2.90
  • (RTX)/.69
  • (ROK)/1.87
  • (VZ)/1.17
After the Close:
  • (AMD)/.30
  • (BXP)/1.59
  • (CHRW)/.97
  • (CNI)/1.42
  • (COF)/2.77
  • (FFIV)/2.46
  • (MRTN)/.22
  • (MXIM)/.63
  • (MSFT)/1.41
  • (SBUX)/.55
  • (TXN)/1.35
  • (VAR)/1.03
Economic Releases
9:00 am EST
  • The FHFA House Price Index MoM for Nov. is estimated to rise +.8% versus a +1.5% gain in Oct.
  • The S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM for Nov. is estimated to rise +1.0% versus a +1.61% gain in Oct. 
10:00 am EST
  • The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index for Jan. is estimated to rise to 89.0 versus 88.6 in Dec. 
  • The Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index for Jan. is estimated at 19.0 versus 19.0 in Dec.
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Fed Press Conference, UK Unemployment report, $61B 5Y T-Note auction, weekly retail sales report and the (PLUG) business update could also impact trading today.
Market Hours
Normal:
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by industrial and financial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Slightly Higher into Final Hour on Stimulus Hopes, Short-Covering, Earnings Optimism, Retail/Biotech Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume: Heavy
  • Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 24.1 +9.9%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 1,979.0 -148.0 points
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 130.32 -.37%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.4 +.6%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 50.6 +.6%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 125.0 +12.0 points
  • Total Put/Call .71 +14.5%
  • NYSE Arms .64 -37.9%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 52.03 +1.89%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 512.93 +1.22%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 61.54 +1.3%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 123.0 -3.0 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 60.65 -.63%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 173.65 +1.68%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 185.48 -.01%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 7.75 unch.
  • TED Spread 14.75 -.25 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -5.75 -.5 basis point
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  70.0 +1.0 basis point
  • IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 73.75 unch.
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 62.06 -.21%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .07% unch.
  • Yield Curve 97.0 -1.75 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 165.40 USD/Metric Tonne -1.2%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 78.20 unch.
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 142.0 unch.
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 60.30 unch.
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.07 -1.0 basis point
  • 100.0% chance of no change at March 17th meeting, 100.0% chance of no change at April 28th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -127 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -151 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +31 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Lower: On losses in my energy/industrial sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 75% Net Long

Bear Radar

 Style Underperformer:

  • Small-Cap Value -.7%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Oil Service -4.6% 2) Alt Energy -3.8% 3) Airlines -3.0%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • PEGA, OPEN, LB, FTOC, CURI, ROAD, MWK, ACCD, HEC, FSRV, UWMC, GM, APPN, PRVB, CRDF, CATM, ACTC, IPOD, BSY, GRBK, IEA, CLII, STIM, RSI, USAC and SOL
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) TJX 2) IRBT 3) AMCX 4) LB 5) XRT
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) ZYME 2) QS 3) SYY 4) PLNT 5) TXRH
Charts:

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:
  • Large-Cap Growth +.5%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Retail +1.5% 2) Utilities +1.4% 3) Biotech +1.2%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • AXDX, BNGO, GEVO, DBI, MAC, SPRQ, VUZI, SDC, GOGO, GME, IRBT, BYND, RKT, PETS, SI, FIZZ, PLCE, UNFI, CCIV, BGS, TDOC, BIGC, M, ATHA, AMCX, PACK, FUBO, CLNE, LGF/A, BBBY, BHVN, LGND, AERI, BALY, DMTK, SRG, CHRS, PRLB, DNMR, AKTS, KIDS, DDS, ACI, IRM, SUNQ, GSAH, NCNO, CLX, CLOV and EPR
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) EXPR 2) IRM 3) SIRI 4) BGS 5) PETS
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) ACER 2) KMB 3) UPS 4) LMT 5) LLY
Charts:

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:
  • Volume Running +84.4% Above 100-Day Average 
  • 5 Sectors Rising, 6 Sectors Declining
  • 43.8% of Issues Advancing, 53.3% Declining
  • 270 New 52-Week Highs, 1 New Lows
  • 84.9% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 51.8% 
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 1,971.0 -156.0 points
  • Vix 25.2 +14.8%
  • Total Put/Call .67 +8.1%
  • TRIN/Arms .93 -10.7%

Sunday, January 24, 2021

Monday Watch

Today's Headlines
Bloomberg:  
Wall Street Journal:
Fox News:
CNBC: 
Zero Hedge: 
NewsMax: 
TheGatewayPundit.com:
The Epoch Times:
Night Trading
  • Asian indices are unch. to +.75% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 61.25 +1.0 basis point.
  • China Sovereign CDS 30.0 unch.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 62.19 unch.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 2,164.0 +36.0 points.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 24.55 -1.31%. 
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.20%.
  • S&P 500 futures +.31%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.56%.

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate

Before the Open:
  • (BOH)/1.11
  • (KMB)/1.62
  • (PHG)/.83
After the Close:
  • (BXS)/.62
  • (BOOT)/.88
  • (BRO)/.29
  • (CR)/1.10
  • (GGG)/.51
  • (FUL)/.85
  • (HXL)/-.19
  • (STLD)/.84
  • (XLNX)/.72
Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
  • The Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index for Dec.
10:30 am EST
  • The Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity Index for Jan.
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The 2Y T-Note auction, German IFO Index and the (VRNT) roadshow could also impact trading today.
Market Hours
Normal:
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly higher, boosted by industrial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to maintain gains into the afternoon.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the week.

Saturday, January 23, 2021

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:  
Wall Street Journal:
CNBC:
  • Had bullish commentary on (MSFT), (LKQ), (CCI), (SBAC), (EQIX), (COR),(NFLX), (ASIX), (DHI), (NOC), (FOX), (NEP), (AGR) and (GLD).
  • Had bearish commentary on .
MarketWatch.com:                
Fox News:
Newsmax:   
Zero Hedge:
TheGatewayPundit.com: