Stocks Reversing Lower into Afternoon on US Policy-Induced Stagflation Fears, Declining Confidence in US Political/Judicial System, Regional Bank Contagion Worries, Industrial/Financial Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Declining
  

• Volume:  Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 19.2 +3.7%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing 1.08%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 53.7 -1.4%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 150.4 -.16%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 11.7 -1.7%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 33.8 +2.4% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 94.0 -17.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call 1.01 +9.8%

• NYSE Arms .96 -18.0%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 78.97 +3.5%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 386.37 +2.8%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 442.0 -2
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 102.52 +3.7% 
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 373.71 -2.3%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 187.0 basis basis points +2.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 129.04 -.28%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 234.94 +2.5%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 26.82 -.33%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 33.75 basis points +.5 basis point
  

• TED Spread 61.5 basis points +11.5 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -14.75 +1.0 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  153.0 +1.0 basis point
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 686.0 +7.0 basis points
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 94.0 +2.0 basis points
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 47.8 -.04%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.72% +7.0 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 118.4 USD/Metric Tonne -.29%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 46.6 euros/megawatt-hour -9.3%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 48.1 -3.9 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 46.8 +.3 point
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 25.4 +.2 point
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 226.11 unch.:  Growth Rate +1.7% unch., P/E 18.1 -.1
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.29% unch.
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -.47 -13.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index -3.95 +7.0 basis points
  
• US Yield Curve -51.25 basis points (2s/10s) +5.75 basis points
• US Atlanta Fed 1Q GDPNow Forecast +1.71% unch.
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +4.60% -13.0 basis points: CPI YoY +5.22% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.27 -4.0 basis points
  
• Highest target rate probability for June 14th FOMC meeting: 53.5%(+12.2 percentage points) chance of 4.75%-5.0%. Highest target rate probability for July 26th meeting: 44.6%(-2.7 percentage points) chance of 4.75%-5.0%.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -127 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +81 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +154 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher:  On gains in my utility/medical sector longs and index hedges
  

• Disclosed Trades:  Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 25% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Value -2.3%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Steel -4.1% 2) Oil Service -3.5% 3) Regional Banks -3.0%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• ESAB, DK, ETN, APA, BILI, SQM, CVBF, IR, BX, ASO, HUBB, DAWN, TFC, RAPT, JCI, FLR, SLG, FRC, BHF, PLUG, ZION, CMA, ALLE, WING, CAT, KEY, TT, VKTX, TGLS, LNC, XRX, CARR, NEO, EVA, MPC, CLF, X, CALM, DINO, HEES, NUE, WCC, ATKR, TH, PBF, PKX, NAPA, VLO, SDRL, WIRE, TITN, URI, STLD, DWAC, HRI, WSC, IGMS, CVI, TEX, AYI, MTW, ZIM and AI
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) PCT 2) AI 3) BUD 4) UWMC 5) CAG
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) ONCT 2) AI 3) AMC 4) STEM 5) SWK
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth -.5%
  

Sector Outperformers:

• Giold & Silver +3.1% 2) Medical Equipment +.4% 3) Utilities +.4%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• EHC, WWE, RPD, LSI and EXR
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) BCLI 2) FYBR 3) BTG 4) SONO 5) EDR

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) AVAV 2) EHC 3) RFL 4) BFLY 5) CDLX
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open: 

• (CAG)/.64
• (SCHN)/.19
• (SMPL)/.30
  

After the Close: 

• None of note
  

Economic Releases

8:15 am EST

• The ADP Employment Change for March is estimated at 210K versus 242K in Feb. 
  

8:30 am EST

• The Trade Balance for Feb. is estimated at -$68.8B versus -$68.3B in Jan.

9:45 am EST

• S&P Global US PMI revisions.

10:00 am EST

• The ISM Services Index for March is estimated to fall to 54.4 versus 55.1 in Feb.

10:30 am EST

• Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory decline of -1,611,860 barrels versus a -7,489,000 barrel decline the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to fall by -1,910,710 barrels versus a -2,904,000 barrel decline the prior week. Distillate inventories are estimated to fall by -719,710 versus a +281,000 barrel gain the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to rise by +.24% versus a +1.7% gain prior.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The China Services PMI report, weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report, (FDX) Drive Investor Update and the (WM) investor day could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +8.4% Above 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 7.5 -.1
  
• 9 Sectors Declining, 2 Sectors Rising
• 20.9% of Issues Advancing, 76.9% Declining
• 38 New 52-Week Highs, 22 New Lows
• 45.5%(-2.7%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 56.0 -2.0
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 53.8 -1.0%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 16,081.5 +.63%
  
• Vix 19.6 +5.4%
• Total Put/Call 1.09 +18.5%
• TRIN/Arms 1.15 -1.71%
  

Tuesday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.25% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 127.75 -3.25 basis points. 

• China Sovereign CDS 71.5 -1.5 basis points. 
• China Iron Ore Spot 117.9 USD/Metric Tonne -2.4%.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 47.9 -.01%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 54.2 -.3%. 
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -.36 -1.0 basis point.
  
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 21.7 +.69%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.33%.

• S&P 500 futures -.05%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.19%.  

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by commodity and consumer shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Reversing Slightly Lower into Afternoon on US Policy-Induced Stagflation Fears, Regional Bank Contagion Worries, US Economic Data, Financial/Transport Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Declining
  

• Volume:  Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 19.2 +2.6%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing 1.16%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 53.6 -1.2%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 150.4 +.07%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 12.0 +1.0%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 34.4 +1.1% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 100.0 +11.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .92 -8.9%

• NYSE Arms 1.07 +18.9%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 756.9 +1.01%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 377.4 -1.9%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 444.0 -11
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 98.59 -.36% 
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 382.53 -9.9%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 185.0 basis basis points +4.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 129.33 -1.09%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 230.15 +.29%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 26.79 -.1%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 33.75 basis points +.5 basis point
  

• TED Spread 50.0 basis points +6.25 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -15.75 +2.5 basis points
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  152.0 unch.
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 679.0 +6.0 basis points
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 92.0 unch.
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 47.84 -.08%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.65% -1.0 basis point
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 120.35 USD/Metric Tonne -.37%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 51.4 euros/megawatt-hour +7.4%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 52.0 -5.0 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 46.5 -3.5 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 25.2 -1.3 points
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 226.11 +.13:  Growth Rate +1.7% unch., P/E 18.2 +.1
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.29% -1.0 basis point
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -.42 -2.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index -4.02 +1.0 basis point
  
• US Yield Curve -57.0 basis points (2s/10s) +1.25 basis points
• US Atlanta Fed 1Q GDPNow Forecast +1.71% -78.0 basis points
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +4.60% -13.0 basis points: CPI YoY +5.22% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.31 -3.0 basis points
  
• Highest target rate probability for June 14th FOMC meeting: 56.9%(+10.5 percentage points) chance of 5.0%-5.25%. Highest target rate probability for July 26th meeting: 47.3%(-2.0 percentage points) chance of 4.75%-5.0%.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -43 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +61 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +146 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Lower:  On losses in my tech/medical sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades:  None
  

• Market Exposure: 50% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

 Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Value -.7%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Shipping -3.2% 2) Alt Energy -2.7% 3) Airlines -2.6%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• ACLX, JD, PAYX, ASAI, BILI, MT, NEWR, BSTZ, FSLR, DLR, WWE, BABA, MNSO, FLNC, TASK, ASC, EHAB, EURN, ATEN, STNG, EVA, NRDS, EXR, TWO, ENVX, SPT, PLUG, SMTC, TRIN, SBGI, TSLA, INSW, SAFE, TNP, VLRS, TWST, VLRS, TRMD, EDR, TNK, FRO, BMEA and ASND
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) WWE 2) NYCB 3) FUBO 4) TECK 5) LOW
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) TSLA 2) PAYX 3) CTLT 4) TEAM 5) DISH
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

 Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Value +.2%
  

Sector Outperformers:

• Oil Service +6.3% 2) Energy +4.5% 3) Healthcare Providers +2.1%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• APLS, PRCT, OVV, CPE, MRO, ISEE, HAL, SLB, M, DWAC, PPG, OXY, LSI, ACDC and PSA
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) SGML 2) AGI 3) CANO 4) LSI 5) DEN

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) BSFC 2) APA 3) RKFL 4) APLS 5) XOM
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open: 

• (AYI)/2.73
• (LNN)/1.53
• (MSM)/1.36
  

After the Close: 

• (RGP)/.33
• (SGH)/.60
  

Economic Releases

10:00 am EST

• The JOLTS Job Openings for Feb. is estimated to fall to 10500K versus 10824K in Jan.
• Factory Orders for Feb. is estimated to fall -.5% versus a -1.6% decline in Jan.
• Factory Orders Ex Transports for Feb. is estimated unch. versus a +1.2% gain in Jan.
• Durable Goods Orders  for Feb. revisions. 
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Cook speaking, Eurozone Industrial Production report, weekly US retail sales reports, BofA Auto Summit, (DCI) investor day, (PRGS) investor day, (CRWD) investor briefing and the (ASO) investor event could also impact global trading on Monday.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +9.6% Above 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 7.6 -4.6
  
• 7 Sectors Declining, 4 Sectors Rising
• 43.5% of Issues Advancing, 53.9% Declining
• 45 New 52-Week Highs, 4 New Lows
• 46.2%(-.7%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 58.0 +4.0
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 53.3 -1.7%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 15,915.9 -.82%
  
• Vix 19.3 +3.0%
• Total Put/Call .87 -13.9%
• TRIN/Arms 1.00 +11.11%
  

Monday Watch

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:                     

• St. Petersburg Explosion Kills Pro-War Blogger Tatarsky.
• UBS to Cut Staff Up to 30%; Prosecutors Look at CS Deal.
• Emerging Market Era More Grind Than Go-Go After Rough Start. 
• Japan’s Manufacturer Sentiment Worsens to Two-Year Low.
• Economists Split on Whether Australia to Pause Tightening Cycle.
• Norway’s Krone Leads Commodity FX Higher on OPEC+ Production Cut. 
• US Stock Futures Fall, Yen Weakens as Oil Rallies: Markets Wrap.
• Oil Rockets 8% After OPEC+ Jolts Market With Surprise Output Cut.
• OPEC+ Makes Shock Million-Barrel Cut in New Inflation Risk.
• Russia Extends Pledged Oil Output Cuts Through 2023, Novak Says.
• Manchin Steps Up Clash With Biden Over Electric-Car Tax Credits.
• A $15 Billion Swap-Based ETF Exposes the Latest ESG Headache.
• Mind the Aftershocks: Post-Tantrum Market Calm Unnerves Traders.
• Apple Is Just Two Months Away From Debuting Its First Reality Headset.
• US Biotech Firm Apellis Is Said to Attract Takeover Interest. 
• Endeavor Group Nears Deal to Acquire Vince McMahon’s WWE.
• Texas Town With Biggest US Pay Raise Keeps Powell on Hiking Path.
• One Risk Was Missing From Strategists’ 2023 View: Banking Crisis.
• Even High-End Travelers Are Reining In Their Spending.
• Five Key Charts to Watch in Global Commodities Markets This Week.

Wall Street Journal:

• Blinken Presses Russian Foreign Minister to Release WSJ Reporter Evan Gershkovich.
• The Coming Biden Bailout of Blue States and Cities. Taxpayers will be on the hook for mismanaged pensions and projects from stadiums to subways.
• DEI at Law Schools Could Bring Down America. After the Stanford episode, Ilya Shapiro sounds a warning: The threat to ‘dismantle existing structures’ is an idle one in English class. But in legal education it targets individual rights and equal treatment under the Constitution.
• Do Scientists Regret Not Sticking to the Science? Taking political stands squanders the credibility of experts. 
• Media Keep Stifling the Covid Debate. A highly regarded institute published an analysis raising questions about masks. News organizations ignored it, then attacked it.
• America Has Too Much Parking. Really.
• SVB Collapse Complicates Banks’ Efforts to Unload Over $25 Billion of Junk Debt.
• Individual Investors Slow Stock Purchases.
• Cancer Patients Choose Lifestyle Over More Aggressive Treatment.
• Bull vs. Bear: The Fed.
• After Direct Hit, Arkansas City Surveys Tornado’s Wreckage.

Fox News:

• Senator Manchin makes plea to District Attorney Bragg after Trump indictment.
• Hospital director calls for drastic increase in capacity for gender surgeries for minors.

CNBC:

• Why some college professors are adopting ChatGPT AI as quickly as students.
• Swiss prosecutor investigates Credit Suisse takeover by UBS.
• Top analysts are bullish on these five long-term picks.

Zero Hedge: 

• Did Bud Light Go 'Woke' With Trans-TikTok Star? Boycott Calls Intensify.
• Oil Surges In Early Trading After OPEC+ Surprise 'Unipolar World'-Challenging Production Cut.
• OPEC+ Makes Surprise 1 Million-Barrel Oil Production Cut. 
• Leaks From Bragg's Grand Jury Are A Crime.
• "Markets Will Always Outsmart The Best AI Systems That Our Computer Scientists Develop".
• Kentucky Governor Signs Bill Banning ESG Investment In Public Pensions.
• Weekend News Round Up - Newsquawk Asia-Pac Market Open.
• CDC Research Team Members Fell Ill Studying Toxic Ohio Derailment, Agency Confirms.
• Tesla Reports Record Deliveries Of 422,875 In Q1 2023, Helped By Price Cuts.
• What Wild And Crazy Thing That No One Was Expecting Will Happen In Q2?
• Luongo: Indicting Trump Is The End Of US Politics.
• Illegal Immigration Surged At Northern US Border With Help Of Americans.
• Short Oil Bets Plunge The Most In 7 Years.
• "Embarrassing": Some Democrats Say Trump Indictment Was A Strategic Mistake.
• Fetterman Home After 6 Weeks In Hospital For Severe Depression.
• Fentanyl-Dealing California Police Union Official Charged.
• Renewables Surpass Coal In US Electricity Generation.
• Debt Deflation: "The Adjustment To Reality Is Likely More Violent Than Anything Seen In The '70s".
• Where Can People Trust In The Rule Of Law?
• Demand For Fuel Tankers Jumps Amid Global Trade Reshuffle.
• These Are The 50 Most Visited Websites In The World.
• 63 Christian Dissidents Face Deportation Back to China.
• These Are Asia's Richest Families.
• Breaking The Kevlar Ceiling: Homegrown Terror Gets A Gender Swap.
• In AI We Trust.
• Transgender Youth More Likely To Support Violent Radicalization: Study.
• White House Refuses To Pay For Twitter Verification.
• Journalist Says DOJ Targeting Him For His Aggressive Post-Jan. 6 Commentary.
• Trump Supporter Found Guilty, Faces Ten Years In Prison For 2016 Anti-Hillary Meme.
• Investigation Reveals 'Revolving Door' Of DOJ, Big Tech Employees.
• "They're All Libertarians" Until Their Deposits Are At Risk.
• The Warnings Unheeded Now Threaten Our Fundamental Freedoms.

MarketWatch.com:  

• As Wall Street pushed stocks higher to start 2023, earnings expectations sank by almost the same amount. 
  
• McDonald’s reportedly planning corporate layoffs this week.

NewsMax:

• Lara Trump: Bragg's Indictment 'Opened People's Eyes'.
• Meet Juan Merchan, the Judge in Trump's Case .
• Lewandowski: Trump Winning Court of Public Opinion.

TheGatewayPundit.com: 

• Report: Trump Attorneys Believe Soros-Funded DA Will Impose Gag Order on Trump On Monday – Will Prevent Him from Campaigning.
• Chief Investigator at Manhattan DA’s Office Susan Hoffinger Previously Donated to Biden and Other Dems.
• Toxic RINO Asa Hutchinson Announces 2024 Presidential Bid, Calls on Trump to Drop Out of Race (VIDEO).
• Alvin Bragg’s Political Donors Include Numerous Donation Mules – And at least one Prominent Business in India.
• Bragg Was Looking to Charge Trump with a Felony, Could Land Himself in Prison for Years Instead.
• Manchin is Angry Biden Regime is “Writing Rules and Regulations That are Totally Foreign” to What He Thought the “Inflation Reduction Act” Would Do (VIDEO).
• IT NEVER ENDS: Now the Biden Administration is Coming for Our Cheap Light Bulbs.
• Democrat Judge in FOX News-Dominion Case Says All Statements About Dominion Were False – What a Crock!
• Washington State Analysts the Latest Group to Discover THOUSANDS of Illegal Election Donation Mules Donating MILLIONS to Democrat PAC Act Blue.
• Capitol Police Are Withholding Thousands of hours of CCTV from Congress and J6 Political Prisoners.
• Program Analyzing Signatures in Kari Lake Case Ranks 10 Percent Match as ‘High-Confidence,’ County Denies – Report.
• Senator Josh Hawley Calls for Nashville Shooting to be Investigated as a Hate Crime (VIDEO).

The Epoch Times:

• ‘A Slow-Moving Genocide’: Human Rights Lawyer Shines Spotlight on China’s Forced Organ Harvesting.
• Beijing Can’t Continue Its Deceitful Trade Practices If China Loses ‘Developing Country’ Status: Expert.

Twitter:

• @alexbruesewitz - "Trump's Real Crime: Waging War Against Globalism" Must watch segment. @StephenM and @TuckerCarlson nail it. (video)
  
• @RobinBrooksIIF - Biggest illusion in markets currently is that Europe's energy shock is over. You just have to look at the giant trade deficit in January 2023 and compare it to the same month in previous years to see this isn't true. Fair value for EUR/$ is 0.90. The energy shock is ongoing... (graph)

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 945,820 Reports(+1,909 from prior week) Through March 17th, 2023.
  

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Night Trading

• Asian indices are -.25% to +.5% on average.
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 131.0 -3.75 basis points.
• China Sovereign CDS 73.0 -4.0 basis points.
• China Iron Ore Spot 125.6 USD/Metric Tonne +.18%
  
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 47.8 -.10%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 55.2 +2.1%.
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -.45 -4.0 basis points. 
  
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 22.5 +1.7%. 
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures n/a.
• S&P 500 futures -.20%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures -.48%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by energy and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the week.