Thursday, April 20, 2023

Stocks Slightly Lower into Afternoon on US Policy-Induced Stagflation Fears, Fed "Higher for Longer" Worries, Earnings Outlook Concerns, Financial/Alt Energy Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Declining
  • Volume: Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 16.8 +1.9%
  • DJIA Intraday % Swing .53%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 57.1 -2.3%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 153.7 -.33%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.9 -1.9%
  • CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 32.3 +2.6% 
  • ISE Sentiment Index 72.0 -29.0 points
  • Total Put/Call .85 -14.1%
  • NYSE Arms 1.69 +77.9%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 76.4 +2.23%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 380.2 +3.7%
  • Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 412.0 +19
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 95.75 +3.30% 
  • Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 349.08 +.32%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 187.0 basis basis points +2.0 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 126.4 +1.8%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 241.81 +1.5%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 26.9 -.04%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 28.5 basis points -.75 basis point
  • TED Spread 20.0 basis points +8.25 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -14.75 +.75 basis point
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 165.0 -4.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 694.0 unch.
  • Avg. Auto ABS OAS 95.0 unch.
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 47.7 +.21%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.07% -5.0 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 112.8 USD/Metric Tonne -2.3%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 40.6 euros/megawatt-hour +.7%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 26.4 -8.5 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 37.0 -.5 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 31.8 -.9 point
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 226.08 unch.:  Growth Rate +1.6% unch., P/E 18.4 unch.
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.26% unch.
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .11 -9.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index -4.18 -14.0 basis points
  • US Yield Curve -63.75 basis points (2s/10s) +2.0 basis points
  • US Atlanta Fed 1Q GDPNow Forecast +2.48% unch.
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +4.58% unch.: CPI YoY +5.17% unch.
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.29 unch.
  • Highest target rate probability for June 14th FOMC meeting: 66.1%(+7.1 percentage points) chance of 5.0%-5.25%. Highest target rate probability for July 26th meeting: 55.2%(+1.9 percentage points) chance of 5.0%-5.25%.
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -1 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -13 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +152 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Higher:  On gains in my tech/industrial sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades:  Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

  • Small-Cap Value -.9%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Electric Vehicles -2.9% 2) Regional Banks -2.1% 3) Telecom -2.0%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • UAL, HRI, GT, KEY, WAL, TECH, NTAP, MP, PERI, RGLD, AMR, FFIV, CMA, SGML, IBKR, GM, VZ, F, ALGM, STM, USB, ACLX, RGEN, VIRT, WTFC, AMRC, RGEN, RIVN, CCI, CLFD, MSTR, ACHC, PM, ALLY, ZION, CFG, SNAP, STX, STLA, SLG, CPE, LI, RIOT, TALO, MAN, LUNR, TSLA, GFF, NRIX, BANL, NVRO, EGBN and T
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) PTEN 2) FFIV 3) HUN 4) SNPS 5) TSEM
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) BBBY 2) TSLA 3) STX 4) VERI 5) FRC
Charts:

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

  • Large-Cap Growth -.4%
Sector Outperformers:
  • Homebuilding +3.6% 2) Steel +2.3% 3) Gambling +1.4%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • XPO, NOVA, MATX, SNA, LRCX, IRDM, STLD, DHI, RLI, LVS, RRR and WSO
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) ARQT 2) SYNH 3) UIHC 4) PE 5) BSN
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) BMI 2) SNA 3) LRCX 4) DHI 5) RLI

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open: 
  • (ALV)/.88
  • (FCX)/.45
  • (HCA)/3.92
  • (PG)/1.32
  • (RF)/.64
  • (SAP)/1.12
  • (SLB)/.61
After the Close: 
  • None of note

Economic Releases

9:45 am EST
  • The S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI report for April is estimated to fall to 49.0 versus 49.2 in March.
  • The S&P Global US Services PMI for April is estimated to fall to 51.5 versus 52.6 in March.
  • The S&P Global US Composite PMI for April is estimated to fall to 51.2 versus 52.3 in March.
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Fed's Cook speaking, Bloomberg April US Economic Survey and the UK retail sales report could also impact global trading tomorrow.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

  • Volume Running -7.3% Below 100-Day Average 
  • Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 8.8 -1.9
  • 10 Sectors Declining, 1 Sector Rising
  • 39.5% of Issues Advancing, 57.3% Declining
  • 51 New 52-Week Highs, 19 New Lows
  • 44.8%(-.5%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 60.0 -1
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 57.7 -1.4%
  • Russell 1000: Growth/Value 15,828.3 +.14%
  • Vix 16.9 +2.6%
  • Total Put/Call .93 -6.1%
  • TRIN/Arms 1.54 +62.1%

Wednesday, April 19, 2023

Thursday Watch

Night Trading 

  • Asian equity indices are -.50% to +.25% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 125.25 +3.75 basis points 
  • China Sovereign CDS 71.25 +4.25 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 116.0 USD/Metric Tonne -1.2%.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 47.6 +-.01%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 59.0 +.9%. 
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .14 -7.0 basis points.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 19.5 +.8%.
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.05%.
  • S&P 500 futures -.24%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -.39%.  
Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Reversing Slightly Higher into Afternoon on Loosening US Financial Conditions, Diminishing Regional Bank Contagion Fears, Earnings Outlook Optimism, Financial/Medical Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

  • Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume: Below Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 16.4 -2.6%
  • DJIA Intraday % Swing .42%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 58.7 +1.0%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 154.3 +.4%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.1 +.7%
  • CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 31.3 +.2% 
  • ISE Sentiment Index 198.0 -10.0 points
  • Total Put/Call .94 +4.4%
  • NYSE Arms 1.08 +13.7%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 73.95 +.42%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 364.26 +.77%
  • Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 393.0 +7
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 92.7 +.19% 
  • Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 347.96 +2.2%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 185.0 basis basis points +3.0 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 124.0 +2.1%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 237.5 +1.9%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 26.95 -.01%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 29.25 basis points -1.25 basis points
  • TED Spread 11.75 basis points -6.25 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -15.5 +.75 basis point
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 169.0 +2.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 694.0 +1.0 basis point
  • Avg. Auto ABS OAS 95.0 unch.
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 47.6 -.31%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.12% unch.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 116.9 USD/Metric Tonne -.4%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 40.3 euros/megawatt-hour -5.7%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 35.9 -1.0 point
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 37.5 -.6 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 32.7 unch.
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 226.08 unch.:  Growth Rate +1.6% unch., P/E 18.4 unch.
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.26% unch.
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .29 +9.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index -4.04 +2.0 basis points
  • US Yield Curve -65.75 basis points (2s/10s) -2.0 basis points
  • US Atlanta Fed 1Q GDPNow Forecast +2.48% unch.
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +4.58% unch.: CPI YoY +5.17% unch.
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.29 +1.0 basis point
  • Highest target rate probability for June 14th FOMC meeting: 64.6%(+.8 percentage point) chance of 5.0%-5.25%. Highest target rate probability for July 26th meeting: 58.1%(+3.4 percentage points) chance of 5.0%-5.25%.
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -1 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +7 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +145 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher:  On gains in my medical/utility sector longs and emerging market shorts
  • Disclosed Trades:  None
  • Market Exposure: 50% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

  • Mid-Cap Growth -.4%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Steel -3.1% 2) Computer Hardware -3.0% 3) Networking -3.0%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • SPWR, MP, FFIV, QNST, OPRA, F, ENVX, ARW, OMC, FULT, UNH, ASAI, HUM, NFLX, CSCO, GGAL, XRX, TNP, AGL, IE, RIVN, SNX, XP, LAD, MOH, VALE, ELV, HLIT, TGS, BMA, RPCT, FOUR, RIOT, NSIT, EXTR and CDW
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) BEN 2) CIFR 3) FOUR 4) TSEM 5) WB
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) XPEV 2) RIVN 3) CDW 4) EXTR 5) LAD
Charts:

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

  • Small-Cap Value +.1%
Sector Outperformers:
  • Medical Equipment +3.7% 2) Regional Banks +2.4% 3) Gambling +1.0%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • WAL, LEGN, MCB, LUNR, ISRG, RLAY, ABT, UAL, PCVX and ACLX
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) BRBR 2) WRK 3) ZBH 4) ESTC 5) EXTR
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) WAL 2) ISRG 3) PACW 4) MCB 5) LEGN

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open: 
  • (ALK)/-.48
  • (AXP)/2.57
  • (T)/.59
  • (AN)/5.74
  • (BMI)/.55
  • (BX)/.96
  • (CMA)/2.27
  • (DHI)/1.91
  • (FITB)/.79
  • (GPC)/2.03
  • (HTLD)/.18
  • (HRI)/2.14
  • (KEY)/.44
  • (MAN)/1.63
  • (MMC)/2.47
  • (NUE)/3.89
  • (PM)/1.34
  • (POOL)/3.19
  • (RAD)/-.77
  • (SNA)/4.14
  • (TSM)/7.43
  • (TFC)/1.15
  • (UNP)/2.57
After the Close: 
  • (OZK)/1.38
  • (CSX)/.43
  • (KNX)/.81
  • (PPG)/1.55
  • (STX)/.21
  • (SIVB)/4.17
  • (VMI)/3.38

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST
  • Initial Jobless Claims for last week are estimated to rise to 240K versus 239K the prior week.
  • Continuing Claims are estimated to rise to 1825K versus 1810K prior.
  • The Philly Fed Business Outlook for April is estimated to rise to -19.2 versus -23.2 in March.
10:00 am EST
  • Existing Home Sales for March is estimated to fall to 4.5M versus 4.58M in Feb.
  • The Leading Index for March is estimated to fall -.7% versus a -.3% decline in Feb.
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Fed's Waller speaking, Fed's Bowman speaking, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report and the (RGLD) virtual investor update could also impact global trading tomorrow.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

  • Volume Running -11.2% Below 100-Day Average 
  • Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 10.7 -.4
  • 8 Sectors Declining, 3 Sectors Rising
  • 34.7% of Issues Advancing, 62.3% Declining
  • 34 New 52-Week Highs, 21 New Lows
  • 44.7%(-2.1%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 61.0 -1
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 58.8 +1.1%
  • Russell 1000: Growth/Value 15,796.9 +.03%
  • Vix 16.5 -2.1%
  • Total Put/Call .93 +3.3%
  • TRIN/Arms 1.21 +27.4%

Tuesday, April 18, 2023

Wednesday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:     

Wall Street Journal:
MarketWatch:
Zero Hedge:
Newsmax:  
TheGatewayPundit.com:
The Epoch Times:
Twitter: 
OpenVAERS:
SKirsch.com:
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.25% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 121.5 unch. 
  • China Sovereign CDS 67.0 unch. 
  • China Iron Ore Spot 118.6 USD/Metric Tonne +.7%.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 47.7 +.04%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 58.6 +.8%. 
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .18 -1.0 basis point.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 19.5 +.03%.
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.02%.
  • S&P 500 futures -.08%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -.13%.  
Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by financial and energy shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.